USBookmaking Partners With Tribal Casino to Offer New Mexico Sports Betting

In what could be a precedent-setting advancement of sports wagering, a New Mexico tribal casino says it will begin offering sports betting next week.

Las Vegas-based USBookmaking said Monday it has an agreement to provide Nevada-style sports betting services to the Santa Ana Star Casino & Hotel, a tribal gaming operation in near Albuquerque.

Although sports wagering is not currently legal in New Mexico, this is believed to be the second state tribal operation to move forward with sports wagering plans by taking the position that sports betting is permissible under its current compact with the state.

Super Bowl 53 Odds: Updated for Week 15

Key takeaways from week 14:

  • New Orleans is the favorites to win Super Bowl 53
  • The Cardinals, Bills, Jets, Jaguars, Raiders, and 49ers will not make the playoffs
  • Biggest jump: Chicago Bears (+80%)
  • Biggest drop: New England Patriots (-1300%)

Super Bowl 53 Odds

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Key takeaways from week 14:

  • New Orleans is the favorites to win Super Bowl 53
  • The Cardinals, Bills, Jets, Jaguars, Raiders, and 49ers will not make the playoffs
  • Biggest jump: Chicago Bears (+80%)
  • Biggest drop: New England Patriots (-1300%)

Super Bowl 53 Odds

Martin is a data analyst that has been applauded for his ability to make the complex simple. He grew up on a farm in northern Vermont and spent his summers helping his mom lead llama treks at Smugglers’ Notch Resort.

Martin graduated from University of Vermont with a degree in Mathematics. After graduation he left Vermont to work for an educational nonprofit called City Year for two years, and followed that up by attending the data science immersive program at Galvanize in Denver. He is an avid Green Bay Packer fan, and spends his free time playing football and soccer.

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Ballin’ on a Budget Week 15 Picks

With just three weeks left in the season, we have just enough time to hit our goal of 60 percent completion percentage and 10 percent return on investment. This year has been really steady minus a couple weeks as we've given you winning picks consistently. We'll look to keep that going this week

With just three weeks left in the season, we have just enough time to hit our goal of 60 percent completion percentage and 10 percent return on investment. This year has been really steady minus a couple weeks as we’ve given you winning picks consistently. We’ll look to keep that going this week as the playoff race heats up and we have to consider the almighty question of “who wants it more?” You’d be surprised how many times that seems to factor into the outcome of games this late in the season. Since our only losses last week were over/unders, we’re gonna stick with straight spread picks this week.

Texans -6.5 at Jets (-105)

Coming off their first loss in months, the Texans will be out for blood against the Jets. This might be a road game, but New York has no reason to want to win this game. In fact, they’d be better off not winning it in order to get a better draft pick. That doesn’t mean they won’t try, but if they get down early, the game might be over by halftime. Houston’s defense shouldn’t allow more than 17 points to this Jets offense and that means the Texans just would have to put up 24 to cover the spread.

As Houston tries to keep its hopes alive at a first-round bye come playoff time, they’re going to have a sense of urgency in this game. The fact the spread is under a touchdown makes it a must-bet in my eyes as one of these teams has everything to play for and the other really couldn’t care less about the outcome. The bet: $5 for total payout of $9.76.

Browns +3 at Broncos (-110)

Cleveland is red hot and the Broncos are coming off a loss to the 49ers, a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. Still, each of these teams has something to play for with a loss meaning they’re just about mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. With the momentum they have, it actually feels like the Browns might win this game straight up, but we will use those three points as a security blanket in case they lose a close game.

Denver has been so inconsistent this season that it feels dangerous picking any game they’re involved in, but we’re picking this game based on momentum, season-long momentum. Cleveland has a ton of it and Denver has none of it. Loser leaves town in this one and this should actually be one of the better games of the weekend. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.70.

Dolphins +7 at Vikings (-110)

I just really like road underdogs this week apparently. Miami is coming off their stunning, last-second victory over the Patriots, so you could say they’re primed for a letdown. However, they’re still very much alive in the wild AFC playoff picture. They’re also visiting a Vikings team that is spiraling out of control. Miami could very easily be the team to provide a knockout punch to Minnesota’s championship hopes, especially after the team fired offensive coordinator John DeFilippo following their embarrassing showing against the Seahawks.

Minnesota is still very talented on defense, but that offense has really struggled to put anything together lately. Kirk Cousins’ confidence is at an all-time low and in a dome, the warm-weather Dolphins aren’t going to be affected by the elements. Expect Miami to give Minnesota a run for its money while the Vikings, in the end, will be able to do just enough to win a close game, giving us a Dolphins +7 victory. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.70.

Cowboys over Colts (+130)

It is curious to me how the Cowboys could be underdogs against the Colts, even if Indy did just hand the Texans their first loss in their last 10 games. The Colts offense has been great at times, but it’s been extremely inconsistent. Against a talented and red-hot Cowboys defense, they aren’t going to be able to do a whole lot. Dallas is slowly becoming that team you don’t want to play in the playoffs, simply because their defense is capable of shutting you down for 60 minutes.

They also bleed the clock with Ezekiel Elliott when they need to control time of possession. When they’ve needed to throw the ball over the last month or so, Dak Prescott has actually looked like a competent quarterback too. The Cowboys might find a way to screw up come playoff time, but they’re one of the hottest teams in the league and as three-point underdogs, the value here is to pick them straight up to win. The bet: $5 for total payout of $11.50.

Seahawks -4.5 at 49ers (-110)

I hesitated to pick this game, because these two teams tend to play each other close no matter what. That didn’t happen in their first meeting, but that game was in Seattle. This comes down to, again, which team needs it more, though. San Francisco showed that’s not the greatest strategy for picking games as they upset the Broncos last weekend, but it should hold here. Seattle’s offense struggled against a good Minnesota defense, but the floodgates should open up against the Niners.

I have a hard time believing Nick Mullens will be able to hang with Russell Wilson for four quarters. I don’t expect this to be a blowout, but I do expect the Seahawks to win by a touchdown or so, which gives us plenty of cushion on this 4.5-point spread. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Back to our dream scenario, which we’ve been close to several times this season with 4-1 weeks: if all five of these games hit, on a $20 parlay, we would stand to make $598.44. That would be a good way to start wrapping the season up, huh? Fingers crossed and good luck betting this weekend.

Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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NFL Week 15: Over and Under Best Bets

This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we're making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we're offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week. 

Over and Under Best Bets

Over of

This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we’re making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we’re offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week. 

Over and Under Best Bets

Over of the week: Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

Total: 43.5

The Titans and Giants don’t scream OFFENSE, which is why this total remains below the season average. But look closely.

The Titans have scored 56 points in their last two games, and they’re well-rested following a Thursday Night Football romp in Week 14. Those two high-scoring performances came at home, but if we’re considering sites it should be noted that Tennessee has also allowed 72 points on defense in its last two road games.

Meanwhile, the Giants offense has exploded since their Week 9 bye. Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. have often been unstoppable for a team that has averaged 31.4 points per game dating back to Week 10. Sure, they surrendered just 16 points last Sunday in Washington, but that was more about the Redskins’ problems than New York’s defensive prowess. The Giants have still allowed 25.1 points per game during that post-bye run.

And they scored 40 in D.C. despite not having Beckham, who should be good to return from a quad injury on Sunday.

Look for both teams to easily hit the 20-point mark in Week 15.

Predicted score: Giants 30, Titans 27

Under of the week: Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Total: 47

Why in the world do oddsmakers think the Cowboys and Colts will combine for 47 points Sunday in Indianapolis? Both defenses have been stout, while both offenses have lacked consistency.

The Dallas D hasn’t surrendered more than 23 points in five consecutive weeks, and that’s a stretch that includes matchups with talented offenses like Philadelphia, New Orleans and Atlanta.

Meanwhile, the Colts D has allowed just 17.1 points per game in their last seven outings, with Jabaal Sheard, Darius Leonard and Margus Hunt killing it.

It’s true that both offenses have the ability to explode at any moment, but this doesn’t look like the time or place. Both teams should be tight for an important game, the Colts are two weeks removed from a zero-point performance in Jacksonville, and the Cowboys’ bread-and-butter offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries to key players.

This should be a tense, low-scoring battle.

Predicted score: Colts 20, Cowboys 17

Good luck, we’re all counting on you. 

Previous results
Last week: 1-1
2018 season: 18-9-1

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007 and is a member of the Professional Football Writers of America, despite the fact he actually lives in Canada. The Toronto-based sports journalist’s work can also be seen at Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Awful Announcing and The Guardian. He can be found on Twitter @brad_gagnon

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Consumer Electronics Show Will Put Sports Technology Front and Center

Technology continues to be a primary catalyst driving the explosion of interest in sports, and subsequently sports wagering in the U.S., a fact noted by the organizers of the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas Jan. 8-11.

The CES 2018 final audit revealed total attendance of 182,198 from 160 countries, including 6,645 verified media outlets. 

Technology continues to be a primary catalyst driving the explosion of interest in sports, and subsequently sports wagering in the U.S., a fact noted by the organizers of the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas Jan. 8-11.

The CES 2018 final audit revealed total attendance of 182,198 from 160 countries, including 6,645 verified media outlets. 

The Consumer Technology Association (CTA), the group producing CES, says for the second year sports tech will be a major focal point at this year’s event, and CES will again launch its “Sports Zone,” a designated convention space at what is considered the foremost U.S. technology show. As for timing, this year’s CES follows the U.S. Supreme Court decision in May that removed the federal roadblock to individual states establishing and regulating their own sports wagering marketplaces.

 

Read more Consumer Electronics Show Will Put Sports Technology Front and Center on SportsHandle.

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Q&A: Why Im Sticking With My Local Bookie

For some people located in states home to new legal sports betting markets, the post-PASPA era of wagering means business as usual.

One person located in Northern New Jersey, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly, now has new legal sportsbooks in the palm of his hand, but is sticking

For some people located in states home to new legal sports betting markets, the post-PASPA era of wagering means business as usual.

One person located in Northern New Jersey, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to talk candidly, now has new legal sportsbooks in the palm of his hand, but is sticking with his guy for a variety of reasons.

Some factors that keep this 39-year-old man (we’ll call him “Jeff Bettor”) in the black market, such as a credit line, regulated markets will never be able to match. However there are other reasons that legal sportsbooks can consider as they collectively seek to migrate as much as the estimated $150 billion (some believe as much as $400 billion) wagered annually by U.S.-based bettors to legal markets in their respective jurisdictions.

The local guy over legal sportsbooks

 


Sports Handle (SH): How long have you been betting with your “local bookie”?

Jeff Bettor (JB): This NFL season marks the eighth that I’ve been with my current bookie.  

SH: Is he truly someone local? Is he also an agent of an offshore entity that gets a cut?

JB: Can’t say that I’ve ever used an offshore, online bookmaker. Growing up in Northern NJ, there’s never been a shortage of local bookies. I use a local guy and bet on through a website online that’s connected to my account with him.  

SH: What do you like most about the bookie?

JB: First and foremost, my bookie is good people. Over the last eight years, we’ve spent countless hours together at ball games and playing poker. I like the fact that my bookie is flexible in regards to our collect and payout number. I don’t need to meet him each week for just a few hundred dollars.  We have a preset number and once my account reaches that number, we settle up.

SH: How does the exchange of money and credit line work?

JB: All local bookies that I know offer their players a credit line. The line itself can vary depending on your relationship with the bookie and how long you’ve been a customer.  My credit line with my local bookie provides me with a $5K per game maximum and a $25K weekly credit line. The betting week runs from Monday-Sunday and the credit line resets each Monday.   

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Ballin’ on a Budget Week 14 Results

For the second straight week, we won more bets than we lost and we can be happy about that. However, if it weren't for a Chargers strategic blunder, we would've looked even better, going to 4-1 for the second straight week. Nonetheless, it was another week in the black, pushing us ever closer

For the second straight week, we won more bets than we lost and we can be happy about that. However, if it weren’t for a Chargers strategic blunder, we would’ve looked even better, going to 4-1 for the second straight week. Nonetheless, it was another week in the black, pushing us ever closer to our end-of-year goal to have a 60 percent pick percentage and 10 percent return on investment.

WIN: Jets +3.5 at Bills (-115): Jets 27, Bills 23.

New York seemed in big trouble early in this game, but Sam Darnold and the offense turned things around in the second half. We knew this three-and-a-half-point spread was juicy since neither team is very good and it turns out we were right. For the second straight week, the Jets covered for us and this time, they even won the game straight up.

This really goes to pound the point home that if there are two teams you perceive as of equal ability, regardless of one of them being at home, taking 3.5 or more points on a spread is the way to go. Gang Green comes through again. Total payout: $7.48.

LOSS: Patriots-Dolphins UNDER 47 points (-110): Dolphins 34, Patriots 31.

Well, we were way off on this one. We didn’t take into account the weather would be beautiful in Miami and the Patriots struggle historically against the Dolphins in the month of December on the road. Of course, they still would have won if it weren’t for Miami’s miraculous lateral play on their final attempt from scrimmage, but the over/under was gone at half time. Whether you believe in Ryan Tannehill or not, the Dolphins are a different team with him on the field.

Sometimes, with bets like this, which are over before the second half, it’s better to just lick your wounds and move on. That same logic doesn’t hold for our second unsuccessful over/under of the week, which was the biggest heartbreaker you could imagine. Total payout: $0.

LOSS: Chargers-Bengals OVER 47.5 points (-110): Chargers 26, Bengals 21.

So, we lost it by half a point. Oh, by the way, the Bengals screwed up down the stretch. Cincinnati stormed all the way back and was a two-point conversion away from tying the game at 23 after a Joe Mixon one-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter. They didn’t get it and it kept us from hitting the over. L.A. eventually drove down and drilled a field goal with less than a minute left to extend the lead to five.

Had Cincy made that field goal, this game would have ended 26-23, with the over hitting and all of us going home happy. If it’s any consolation, the Bengals did help us in another department by keeping things close, so we owe them for that. Total payout: $0.

WIN: Bengals +14.5 vs. Chargers (-120): Chargers 26, Bengals 21.

So, we can be mad at the Bengals for not getting that two-point conversion and helping us with the over, but we can’t be mad at their overall effort in this game. We have a proven track record picking with underdogs of 14 points or more this season, but with Jeff Driskell at quarterback for Cincinnati, we were taking a chance. He actually played fairly well and rewarded our confidence in the team.

That now makes us 3-for-3 this season in picking big-time underdogs, so let’s keep an eye out for those down the stretch. That could be tricky with many good teams clinching playoff spots, but with the the race for home field in the AFC and NFC heating up, we should be able to rely on this method for at least the next couple weeks. Total payout: $7.33.

WIN: Lions -2.5 vs. Cardinals (-115): Lions 17, Cardinals 3.

This was a really gross game, but hey, the Lions covered and that’s all we care about. It was 3-0 Lions at halftime and it barely got more entertaining in the second half. Matthew Stafford had one of the worst games of his career, barely managing 100 yards, but his defense got the job done. Arizona, which looked decent against the Packers, wasn’t able to muster anything against Detroit’s D.

If you didn’t watch this game, but bet it and collected your winnings, good for you. You got the best of both worlds. This was not a game worth watching, but the fact we won some money doing it made it just a little bit easier on the eyes. Total payout: $7.48.

PIGGY BANK: $309.89 (10.7% return on investment)

PICK PERCENTAGE: 59.7% (40-27-3)

Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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Missouri’s Latest Sports Betting Bill Gives Royalty To Pro Leagues And NCAA

Missouri lawmakers seem intent on charging licensed sportsbooks some sort of royalty or other fee above and beyond taxes, application fees and other administrative costs.

Representative Cody Smith (R-District 163) became the second lawmaker to pre-file sports betting legislation in Missouri that includes such a fee. And this one would include a full

Missouri lawmakers seem intent on charging licensed sportsbooks some sort of royalty or other fee above and beyond taxes, application fees and other administrative costs.

Representative Cody Smith (R-District 163) became the second lawmaker to pre-file sports betting legislation in Missouri that includes such a fee. And this one would include a full one percent of handle that some professional leagues have been lobbying for since earlier this year, despite leagues lowering their “request” in numerous states to one-quarter of one percent.

HB 119, which was obtained by Sports Handle last week, does have a little bit of a twist – the fee would be broken into two parts, a three-quarters of one percent fee that would be paid to “registered” professional leagues and one-quarter of one percent fee that would be paid to the NCAA for wagers placed on games including at least one FBS football team or one Division I men’s basketball team. Smith’s bill states that “royalties received by public universities under this section shall be used solely for athletics compliance.”

 

Read more Missouri’s Latest Sports Betting Bill Gives Royalty To Pro Leagues And NCAA  on SportsHandle.

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The Week In Sports Betting And Sports: Hatchet Job, Rhode Island Launches

It’s information overload everywhere, and there’s not time enough to sleep and eat and stay fully apprised of what’s happening on this crazy blue dot of ours (two out of three ain’t bad).

Here’s the weekend Sports Handle item, “Get a Grip,” recapping the week’s top stories, and rounding up key stories in sports

It’s information overload everywhere, and there’s not time enough to sleep and eat and stay fully apprised of what’s happening on this crazy blue dot of ours (two out of three ain’t bad).

Here’s the weekend Sports Handle item, “Get a Grip,” recapping the week’s top stories, and rounding up key stories in sports betting, gaming, and the world of sports at large. You may have missed them, and they are worth reading.

Give It a Rest, Orrin Hatch

It seems outgoing Republican senator Orrin Hatch can’t give up on his dream of keeping sports betting illegal (or at least putting it on a tight leash) in the U.S. Hatch, one of the original architects of PASPA, is circulating a draft of a federal bill to regulate sports betting. But Hatch is retiring and won’t be around to see this bill through. That’s right, the longest-serving Republican senator in history — Hatch was first elected in 1976 when the original “Rocky” was in theaters and Jimmy Carter was president — is retiring. So, why draft a bill?

Hatch is as conservative as they come. He’s from Utah, one of only two states in the U.S. without a state lottery, and is against gambling, among other things. The day PASPA was overturned, he promised new legislation. But to what end? Eight states have already legalized sports betting and seven have launched. Should Hatch’s bill get any legs, what happens in those eight states? Hatch’s draft bill would mandate that sportsbooks buy their data from the professional leagues or third third-party partners, and would require sportsbooks to submit their plans to the U.S. attorney general, in hopes of getting a three-year approval to operate. Really? All this bill will do is create one more layer of red tape and allow Congress to stick its fingers into states’ business and potentially trigger the same anti-commandeering states’ rights issue that caused PASPA’s demise.

This bill — all 37 pages of it — should just go away and Congress should walk away. But just like the professional leagues, which have continued to plea for an off-the-top fee (integrity, royalty, call it what you want) and been shut out in every single state, Congress is hard-headed. This bill is just the latest example of politics gone wrong.

 

Read more The Week In Sports Betting And Sports: Hatchet Job, Rhode Island Launches on SportsHandle.

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‘Cover City’: NFL Week 14 Picks, Preview With Steve Hytner

Sports Handle is pleased to present Cover City: A Pro Football Betting Podcast, hosted by Eric Rosenthal (@ericcports), brought to you by PropSwap.com. Rosenthal is a professional sports bettor who focuses on NFL and college football. He’s wagered more than $25 million in the last nine years, getting banned from many sportsbooks along the way.

Sports Handle is pleased to present Cover City: A Pro Football Betting Podcast, hosted by Eric Rosenthal (@ericcports), brought to you by PropSwap.com. Rosenthal is a professional sports bettor who focuses on NFL and college football. He’s wagered more than $25 million in the last nine years, getting banned from many sportsbooks along the way.

Week 14 is here and it’s GOLD. Steve Hytner (@hytner), podcaster, sports bettor and comedian also known as Kenny Bania of Seinfeld, joins Rosenthal to discuss this week’s matchups. Listen below for the one team Hytner refuses to take on the road, and did Rosenthal get engaged this week? 

Listen and subscribe on Spotify here. Download the PropSwap app for iOS systems here and Android here. Time codes for the episode follow below.

7:06 — Baltimore Ravens +6.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

9:32 — Indianapolis Colts +4.5 at Texas Houstons

12:09 — Carolina Panthers -1.5 at Cleveland Browns

14:23 — Atlanta Falcons +5 at Green Bay Packers

20:03 — New Orleans Saints -8 at Tampa Buccaneers

20:56 — N.Y Jets -3.5 at Buffalo Bills

23:48 — New England Patriots -7.5 at Miami Dolphins

25:04 —  L.A. Rams -3 at Chicago Bears

26:36 —  A bundled trio of second- and third-string QBs: N.Y. Giants -3.5 at Washington Redskins, Denver Broncos -4 at San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals +14 at L.A. Chargers.

36:09 —  Detroit Lions -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals.

37:23 — Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 at Dallas Cowboys.

39:51 — Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 at Oakland Raiders.

41:40 — Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks.

47:55 — Additional thoughts on Week 14.

53:23 — PropSwap.com opportunities.

55:50 — Rosenthal’s SuperContest picks.


Also check out this week’s Pro Football Handle podcast!

 

Hear more ‘Cover City’: NFL Week 14 Picks, Preview With Steve Hytner on SportsHandle.

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Kansas Remains A Battleground State For Sports Betting Integrity Fees

Kansas lawmakers are going back to school once again, and on Tuesday, they got quite an earful when Ohio senator Bill Coley said that he thought that none of the eight states that have legalized sports betting have gotten it right, according to US Bets.

Coley, who is the chairman of Ohio’s Senate Government Oversight

Kansas lawmakers are going back to school once again, and on Tuesday, they got quite an earful when Ohio senator Bill Coley said that he thought that none of the eight states that have legalized sports betting have gotten it right, according to US Bets.

Coley, who is the chairman of Ohio’s Senate Government Oversight and Reform Committee and heads the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States was invited to speak before a Kansas special committee. He’s clearly in the camp of the pro sports leagues, as he said “If we get it right, the big winners are the leagues. Mark Cuban said it right, the value of your franchise just doubles.”

A day after the hearing, the Kansas City Star reported that Coley had invited Kansas lawmakers to attend an industry sponsored conference in New Orleans in January. That invitation has Kansas lawmakers arguing in the press as Republican Bud Estes, the chairman of the Kansas Special Committee on Federal and State Affairs, which hosted Tuesday’s hearing, doesn’t see any conflict with attending the conference while Democrat John Carmichael called attending the conference “far beyond the bounds of propriety.”

 

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‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 14 Breakdown, Rams-Bears Clash, Cowboys-Eagles Fight for NFC East

On The Pro Football Handle, brought to you by PropSwap.com, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmaking dive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the

On The Pro Football Handle, brought to you by PropSwap.com, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmaking dive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

Welcome to Week 14! This week Walker emphasizes that the ‘Under’ may be smart money, but life’s too short to bet the under. And we learn that if the Houston Texans win 13 games in a row, Perrault will walk the Vegas strip with a sandwich board reading “I am a moron.” Tune in for a full rundown of the Week 14 slate.

Download the PropSwap app for iOS systems here and Android here. Time codes for the episode follow below. Spotify fans go here to listen.

 


1:00– Week 13 Recap.

8:48 — PropSwap.com Future Focus. For 10% off your first purchase, visit PropSwap.com/Handle.

9:44 — Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 at Tennessee Titans — With a total at 37.5, books aren’t expecting much of a show.

10:36 — Indianapolis Colts +4.5 at Texas Houstons — Colts may be the smart bet but if the Texans continue to win, we get to see Perrault publicly embarrass himself. Go Texans?

14:13 — Baltimore Ravens +6.5 at Kansas City Chiefs — the line has plummeted. Is it the Lamar Jackson effect? Or does the loss of KC RB Kareem Hunt have a bigger impact than initially thought?

19:06 — Carolina Panthers -2 at Cleveland Browns — Carolina is atrocious on the road, this line is a fade on Cleveland.

21:52 — Atlanta Falcons +5 at Green Bay Packers — The Falcons have nothing to play for, but will the Packers rally or fold for interim head coach Joe Philbin?

6:36 — New Orleans Saints -8 at Tampa Buccaneers  — The over is the safest bet for this game.

30:42 — New England Patriots -7.5 at Miami Dolphins — Careful, the Pats historically stink in Miami.

31:20 — N.Y Jets +3.5 at Buffalo Bills — these teams are too bad for one to crush the other.

34:37 — L.A. Rams +3 at Chicago Bears — Game of the weekend. The public is loving the Bears, but they aren’t one of the elite teams of 2018. The Rams are.

38:19 — Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 at Dallas Cowboys and N.Y. Giants -3.5 at Washington Redskins — NFC East showdowns: public teams and public money.

41:12 — Denver Broncos -4 at San Francisco 49ers — The line continues to come down, so if you lik San Fran, wait.

43:08 — Cincinnati Bengals +14 at L.A. Chargers — The Bengals are in a tailspin, but 14 is a lot of points in the NFL.

45:26 — Pittsburgh Steelers -10.5 at Oakland Raiders — Pros are driving the line down. Could Oakland really be the play here?

51:07 — Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks — Doesn’t matter the opponent, everyone wants the Seahawks now.


Have a profitable Week 14, folks. Thanks for listening and see you back next week, tell a friend, sign up for our newsletter and also check out the Cover City Podcast, featuring sports bettor Eric Rosenthal.

 
 

Hear more ‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 14 Breakdown, Rams-Bears Clash, Cowboys-Eagles Fight for NFC East on SportsHandle.

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Ballin’ on a Budget Week 14 Picks

We're nearing the finish line as we enter Week 14. There is still plenty to be decided throughout the NFL, but it's betting weeks down the stretch like this that separate the men from the boys. You have to take things like motivation into account this late in the season. When neither team

We’re nearing the finish line as we enter Week 14. There is still plenty to be decided throughout the NFL, but it’s betting weeks down the stretch like this that separate the men from the boys. You have to take things like motivation into account this late in the season. When neither team has anything to play for, how do you properly predict an outcome? We’re mostly staying away from games like that and keeping our tried and true formula of three game picks and two over/unders as we try to build on our 4-1 Week 13 result.

Jets +3.5 at Bills (-115)

Neither of these teams is any good. Buffalo is surging, but the Jets defense is no slouch, so Josh Allen will be challenged. When teams as inept as these two get together, it’s generally a pretty close game. In fact, my money would be on the Bills winning this game by a field goal. Guess what? That means the extra half point on the spread will get us the betting win.

Last week, the Jets came through as 7.5-point underdogs against the Titans. They blew a late lead, but still covered. I’m really liking that extra half point again, because it all but guarantees a betting win as long as this game stays close late. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.48.

Bengals +14.5 at Chargers (-120)

We’re sticking with our tried and true method of picking any team that is favored by more than two touchdowns. We’re 3-for-3 on the season in games like this and now hoping to make it 4-for-4. Make no mistake about it, the Bengals are in free fall and have the worst defense in football. Los Angeles is one of the hottest teams in football, whose offense looked unstoppable against the Steelers in the second half on Sunday Night Football.

Despite all that, we need to remember that at the end of the day, these are two NFL teams and the odds are in our favor that the game will be within two touchdowns. I don’t care if it’s Jeff Driskell starting at QB for Cincinnati, most teams still find a way to keep it closer than two scores. Maybe our time has finally run out on bets like this or maybe the good times keep rolling. I guess we’ll have to wait until Sunday to find out. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.33.

Lions -2.5 at Cardinals (-115)

This point spread is the one that most caught my eye this week. The Lions hung with the Rams for three quarters and now are barely favored against the Cardinals? I know Arizona just went to Lambeau and beat the Packers, but this year’s Pack isn’t your older brother’s Pack. Green Bay just isn’t good this season. Now, neither are the Lions, but they are perfectly capable of going into Phoenix and coming out with a win.

Arizona’s defense is its strong suit, so maybe they pressure Matthew Stafford into some mistakes. If he turns the ball over a few times, the Lions are in trouble. However, Detroit’s offense has shown more consistency and Stafford puts up huge numbers against inferior teams. Look for them to right the ship after a close call against the Rams and easily cover this spread, winning the game by at least a field goal. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.33.

Bengals-Chargers OVER 47.5 (-110)

It is dangerous to bet the point spread and over/under in the same game, because sometimes they work against each other, but in this case, I think it’s worth it. As we said, the Bengals have a terrible defense and the Chargers have a great offense. L.A. is feeling some swagger after a statement win over the Steelers. They’re going to put points on the board, it’s just a matter of if Cincy can hold up it’s end of the bargain.

Let’s imagine a world in which the Bengals cover 14.5 and the over hits. At the minimum it would look something like this: Chargers 31, Bengals 17. That’s a perfectly easy final score to imagine. If the bar for the Bengals is 17 points, I like our chances. It’s a rare move for us to take action twice in the same game, but this seems like a good opportunity to do so. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Patriots-Dolphins UNDER 47 (-110)

This seems like a weird AFC East game where the Patriots let the Dolphins stick around for most of the game only to pull away late. It also seems like in these types of games, there are a lot of field goals. As we know, field goals are the best friend of the under. Again, let’s think about a 30-17 score. Certainly, we could see the Patriots winning by that margin.

However, with Tom Brady less than stellar this season, it might be a little lower scoring than that. New England’s defense has also stepped up in recent weeks, making us believe the Dolphins might struggle to get two touchdowns on the board. New England has been less predictable this year than in past years, but 47 still seems high for a game we expect to be relatively close and relatively low scoring. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

What would be our total payout for this five-team parlay you ask? Well, we’ve come close three times with 4-1 weeks, but have never put together that perfect 5-0 week. If we were to do that this week, we would come away with a cool $467.18.

Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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Understanding the NBA’s Sports Betting Data Deals With Sportradar, Genius Sports

A federal sports betting bill that surfaced on Tuesday helps shed light on a deal the National Basketball Association announced one week earlier — that it’s joining forces with both Genius Sports and Sportradar to form non-exclusive sports wagering data partnerships designed to supply data to sportsbooks in legal, regulated U.S. markets. 

The

A federal sports betting bill that surfaced on Tuesday helps shed light on a deal the National Basketball Association announced one week earlier — that it’s joining forces with both Genius Sports and Sportradar to form non-exclusive sports wagering data partnerships designed to supply data to sportsbooks in legal, regulated U.S. markets. 

The agreement with both companies, among worldwide industry leaders in providing betting data, includes all NBA teams and games and is effective immediately. The arrangement also includes the WNBA, when that league resumes action in the spring. 

The discussion draft of the bill from retiring Utah Senator Orrin Hatch’s office contains this provision on “authorized data,” regarding how state-licensed sportsbooks must grade wagers:

With respect to any sports wager accepted on or before December 31, 2022, provide that a sports wagering operator shall determine the result of a sports wager only with data that is licensed and provided by:

(I) the applicable sports organization; or

(II) an entity expressly authorized by the applicable sports organization to 24 provide such information.

Hatch is out of office soon and we have no idea what the 116th United States Congress may bring in 2019. But whether on a federal or state level — the former much preferred for the NBA — the league is laying the groundwork to have Genius Sports and Sportradar installed as the suppliers of real-time betting data and NBA products to legal sportsbooks across the country.

The NBA’s strategy of monetizing its data for U.S. sports betting has been apparent all along and began with Sportradar overseas in a deal worth $250 million over three years. The creation of multiple non-exclusive deals is key here in the U.S., for the NBA to guarantee competitive pricing and avoid accusations that it is seeking to create a data monopoly.

 
 

Read more Understanding the NBA’s Sports Betting Data Deals With Sportradar, Genius Sports on SportsHandle.

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NFL Week 14: Over and Under Best Bets

This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we're making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we're offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week. 

Over and Under Best Bets

Over of

This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we’re making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we’re offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week. 

Over and Under Best Bets

Over of the week: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Total: 38

The Bills have played a lot of low-scoring games this season, mainly because they’ve dealt with issues at quarterback and running back while battling weak opponents in a weak division.

But the Buffalo offense has turned a corner since getting rookie quarterback Josh Allen back from a midseason injury. They scored just 17 points last week in Miami, but they had 415 yards of total offense in that game, and that was a week from removed from a two-game stretch in which they scored a combined 65 points with zero turnovers and 778 net yards.

With running back LeSean McCoy also coming around, don’t be surprised if that offense finally explodes Sunday at home against a Jets D that has just one takeaway since Week 6 and has surrendered at least 26 points in five of their last seven games.

Buffalo could cover this total on its own, just as it did when the Bills hammered the Jets 41-10 on the road last month.

Predicted score: Bills 41, Jets 16

Under of the week: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Total: 49

It’s time to give up on both of these offenses. The Falcons have been held to fewer than 20 points in four consecutive games, while the Packers have been limited to 17 or fewer in three of their last five.

Sure, neither team is great defensively either, but Green Bay has given up just 15.5 points per game in their last four outings at Lambeau Field.

It’s possible Matt Ryan and Co. could suddenly explode, and it’s just as possible a fire has been lit under Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense following Mike McCarthy’s firing. But it’s unlikely that both of those developments have taken place for two teams that are out of contention and playing out the string.

This one might not hit 40, and almost certainly won’t hit 50.

Predicted score: Packers 24, Falcons 17

Good luck, we’re all counting on you. 

Previous results
Last week: 2-0
2018 season: 17-8-1

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007 and is a member of the Professional Football Writers of America, despite the fact he actually lives in Canada. The Toronto-based sports journalist’s work can also be seen at Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Awful Announcing and The Guardian. He can be found on Twitter @brad_gagnon

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D.C. Sports Betting Bill Moves Forward With No Amendments, Keeping Single-App System

After much debate, but with no new amendments, the District of Columbia Council voted 9-2 on Tuesday to advance its sports betting bill to a second hearing on Dec. 18. The bill, as written, will effectively allow the the D.C. Lottery to have a monopoly on mobile/internet sports betting within the District. It

After much debate, but with no new amendments, the District of Columbia Council voted 9-2 on Tuesday to advance its sports betting bill to a second hearing on Dec. 18. The bill, as written, will effectively allow the the D.C. Lottery to have a monopoly on mobile/internet sports betting within the District. It also allows in-person sports betting within five professional sporting venues around the city.

The second reading is the final reading, and if the bill passes, it moves on for the mayor’s signature and then for review by Congress (standard procedure).

The bill did not advance without ample discussion, and two council members who were adamantly opposed. In particular, councilman David Grosso said, “I don’t believe all of the hype that’s been going on around this legislation. … I believe there is a lot of self-interest in this debate and I believe that some of my (fellow council members) believe there will be millions and millions in revenue, and I don’t believe it.”

 
 

Read more D.C. Sports Betting Bill Moves Forward With No Amendments, Keeping Single-App System on SportsHandle.

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New Federal Sports Betting Bill Surfaces, Empowering Attorney General and Mandating Purchase of Data

A draft of a federal sports betting bill that surfaced Tuesday would force states to obtain approval from the U.S. Attorney General’s office for their sports betting legalization plans – while also mandating that operators purchase official statistical data from sports leagues at least through 2022.

The bill, which does not yet indicate a

A draft of a federal sports betting bill that surfaced Tuesday would force states to obtain approval from the U.S. Attorney General’s office for their sports betting legalization plans – while also mandating that operators purchase official statistical data from sports leagues at least through 2022.

The bill, which does not yet indicate a sponsor, also would amend The Wire Act and The Sports Bribery Act, with the former changes allowing for dissemination of sports betting information across state lines. Also new: establishment of a “National Sports Wagering Clearinghouse.”

The sweeping change in how sports betting would be overseen in the U.S. was met with some skepticism from the American Gaming Association.

 
 

Read more New Federal Sports Betting Bill Surfaces, Empowering Attorney General and Mandating Purchase of Data on SportsHandle.

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Oral Argument, One Year Later: 60 Minutes That Changed Sports Betting Forever

One year ago on this day, four hours before the sun rose, I stood on a sidewalk adjacent to the United States Supreme Court, waiting for one of 50 public tickets to hear 60 minutes of oral argument that would help decide the fate of sports betting in the U.S.

Nobody knew exactly what

One year ago on this day, four hours before the sun rose, I stood on a sidewalk adjacent to the United States Supreme Court, waiting for one of 50 public tickets to hear 60 minutes of oral argument that would help decide the fate of sports betting in the U.S.

Nobody knew exactly what to expect, especially the veteran attorneys on opposing sides of Murphy v NCAA, who knew to expect anything.  Before a packed house of anxious and excited observers, counsel for the the State of New Jersey and the New Jersey Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association (collectively ‘Murphy’), Theodore B. Olson began on Chief Justice John Roberts’ cue:

One of the most important decisions made at the Constitutional Convention in 1787 was replacing the failed confederacy that governed states with a national government that could regulate individuals but not states. In the words of this Court in the New York case, Congress may regulate interstate commerce directly, but it may not regulate states’ regulation of interstate commerce.

That’s as far as Olson got before Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg interjected, starting the back-and-forth between Olson and the rest of the fine nine judicial minds stationed at the front of the room, in which cameras are strictly prohibited.

 
 

Read more Oral Argument, One Year Later: 60 Minutes That Changed Sports Betting Forever on SportsHandle.

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D.C. Legal Sports Betting Framework Approaching State of Chaos

Legalizing sports betting in the nation’s capital is getting hairy. After the Finance and Revenue Committee voted to move B22-0944 forward last Wednesday, a coalition that includes several professional leagues and mobile and online sports betting operators has begun circulating a flyer calling for changes.

There are no casinos, horse tracks, or off-track

Legalizing sports betting in the nation’s capital is getting hairy. After the Finance and Revenue Committee voted to move B22-0944 forward last Wednesday, a coalition that includes several professional leagues and mobile and online sports betting operators has begun circulating a flyer calling for changes.

There are no casinos, horse tracks, or off-track betting parlors in Washington, D.C. As such, the D.C. Council is truly starting from scratch as it works to legalize sports betting. Multiple amendments are likely to be proposed at Tuesday’s first reading of the bill, which in its current form would allow the D.C. Lottery a borderline monopoly on mobile and internet sports betting within the city. 

To that end, a group of mobile sports betting operators, including DraftKings and FanDuel, began circulating a flyer in the Council’s Wilson building after last week’s hearing in which they align themselves with Major League Baseball, the NBA and the PGA Tour. The flyer was first reported by Washington City Paper.

In the flyer, the groups ask for “a small fee” of 25 cents of every $100 wagered to be paid to the professional sports organizations. They do not call this a “royalty” or “integrity fee” or otherwise affix a label. More importantly, the groups oppose the D.C. Lottery becoming the exclusive operator of mobile sports betting.

 

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The Genesis of Missouri Lawmaker’s New Spin on Sports Betting ‘Integrity Fee’

Missouri state senator Denny Hoskins (D-District 21) isn’t opposed to a sports betting “integrity fee” — an off-the-top cut of all wagers. He’s just not willing to give it to the professional leagues.

Hoskins said it’s not unusual for owners of professional sports teams to go to their local and state governments and

Missouri state senator Denny Hoskins (D-District 21) isn’t opposed to a sports betting “integrity fee” — an off-the-top cut of all wagers. He’s just not willing to give it to the professional leagues.

Hoskins said it’s not unusual for owners of professional sports teams to go to their local and state governments and ask for money to build a stadium or make upgrades. So, instead of giving money to the leagues directly, Hoskins wants to keep the money in Missouri’s hands to resolve how to make the state’s venues better.

“It’s an idea that I started thinking about because if there is an integrity fee it would go to the professional leagues and if there is not an integrity fee, that money would go to the casinos,” Hoskins told Sports Handle in a phone interview Friday. “So I thought, what if we put the integrity fee into a fund, because whether it’s the Scottrade Center or Arrowhead Stadium or the Edward Jones Dome …  they don’t only need money to upgrade the actual facilities, but to upgrade the fan experience. Whether they need better intersections or lighting, or I’ve never heard of a stadium that says ‘yes, we have too many women’s bathrooms.’ The goal would be to upgrade either in the stadium or even outside of it.”

To that end, Hoskins filed a new sports betting bill on Saturday, the first day that Missouri lawmakers could do so ahead of the 2019 session. His bill turns the integrity fee on its head and keeps more money at home by creating “Entertainment Facilities Infrastructure Fund.”

 

 

Read more The Genesis of Missouri Lawmaker’s New Spin on Sports Betting ‘Integrity Fee’ on SportsHandle.

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Ballin’ on a Budget Week 13 Results

Our darkest days were followed by our finest hours. After going a disappointing 1-4 a week ago, we got right back on track with a 4-1 showing in Week 13. If it weren't for the Colts literally laying an egg against the Jaguars, we would've hit our big five-team parlay. It's almost like

Our darkest days were followed by our finest hours. After going a disappointing 1-4 a week ago, we got right back on track with a 4-1 showing in Week 13. If it weren’t for the Colts literally laying an egg against the Jaguars, we would’ve hit our big five-team parlay. It’s almost like we can’t trust any AFC South team not named the Texans right now. That started our day off on a sour note, but the rest of the games helped ensure a week back in the black.

LOSS: Colts -5 at Jaguars (-110): Jaguars 6, Colts 0.

What an absolutely disgusting game. Finally, Jacksonville’s defense decided to show up and ended up shutting out one of the hottest offenses in the league. Indy couldn’t get anything going and somehow, Cody Kessler out-dueled Andrew Luck. Perhaps we’re giving Kessler too much credit. Anyway, I hope you didn’t watch this game during the first set of games just because you bet on it. If you did, you missed some other great games.

Everyone but the Texans seems so unpredictable nowadays in the AFC South. Just when you think a red-hot Colts team can beat a Jaguars team riding a seven-game losing streak by a touchdown, you’re proven wrong. As we alluded to, though, this was all we got wrong this week and that’s a good feeling. Total win: $0.

WIN: Raiders +15.5 vs. Chiefs (-110): Chiefs 40, Raiders 33.

Every single time we’ve bet on a team that was an underdog of 14 or more points this season, we have hit. I don’t think that’s a coincidence. It’s just really hard to blow teams out in this league no matter the disparity of talent. Obviously, when we made this pick earlier in the week, we didn’t know Kansas City would be without Kareem Hunt and that certainly helped. Still, Oakland just had a decent showing, especially down the stretch.

Patrick Mahomes continued to do Patrick Mahomes things and threw for another four touchdowns, but the Raiders were able to keep pace on the scoreboard. Down the stretch, we will continue to seriously consider double-digit underdogs, because they’ve already proven this season to be a really wise bet. Total win: $7.60.

WIN: Jets +7.5 vs. Jets (-110): Titans 26, Jets 22.

This was a really tough loss for the Jets as they led nearly the whole way, but we don’t care about that. They covered the spread and that’s what truly great teams do, right? Well, we won’t mentioned the Jets and the word “great” in the same sentence again, but the bottom line is they did enough to cover. It seemed a little ridiculous the Titans were favored by more than a touchdown in the first place and they showed why: their offense is wildly inconsistent.

New York choked down the stretch and Tennessee’s defense clamped down late, so more power to them. They seem to play everyone close (outside of the Patriots) and asking them to win by more than a score proved too hard. We expected as much and will take it to the bank as a result. Total win: $7.60.

WIN: Steelers-Chargers OVER 51.5 points (-110): Chargers 33, Steelers 30.

What a thrilling Sunday Night Football game this was. Things looked very iffy after the first half ended 23-7 Steelers. It looked like it might become a blowout, which always threatens overs. However, the Chargers came out of halftime on fire and rattled off an impressive road win. By early fourth quarter, we already had the over and could just enjoy the final minutes of the game. Both these teams are playoff caliber and it was nice to get a preview of a potential opening round match up.

If a playoff rematch were to be as entertaining as this one, sign me up. Should that happen, I don’t think the floodgates will be as wide open. Scoring tends to go down a bit come playoff time when there’s a chill in the air. Anyway, this over proved to be a really solid bet and it keeps pushing us right along in our mission to get back over the 60 percent pick percentage mark. Total win: $5.70.

WIN: Ravens-Falcons UNDER 48.5 (-110): Ravens 26, Falcons 16.

It’s almost as if we predicted the Falcons would stall out in the red zone and the Ravens wouldn’t blow them out, thus hitting the under. Both those things happened and while it got close at the end, we never really got the feeling the Falcons were going to score again to hit the over. Had they scored a late touchdown, that could’ve made for a really brutal beat, but we avoided that fortunately.

Atlanta is really such a mess right now and with the Steelers losing, Baltimore is right back in the AFC North hunt. When they play again, that will be a big clash of styles and I don’t expect seeing a point spread or over/under that I will feel confident enough in that one. We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it, though, and for now, rejoice that we are solidly back in the win column. Total win: $9.50.

PIGGY BANK: $287.60 (10.6% return on investment)

PICK PERCENTAGE: 59.7% (37-25-3)

Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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