October 28, 2015 - Rob Mason
To the House: Week 6 Edition
It's that time of the week again. The time where we focus on the most thrilling aspect of a football game: a touchdown. That minuscule gap between the 1-inch line and the goal line makes for a substantial six point difference on the scoreboard. It can also be the difference between winning and losing your fantasy matchup for the week. So take a look at which players are most likely to score those six points in this week's edition of "To the House."
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1. Matt Forte, Running Back, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Forte's ability to catch the ball out of the backfield has become a valuable commodity in the fantasy community. Last week he added another receiving touchdown to his resume on top of the 109 total yards he gained against Kansas City. With Cutler's top receivers Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, and Kevin White all still dealing with lingering injuries, Forte's name will be called upon often against the division rival Lions.
The Detroit Lions have already given up seven rushing touchdowns to opposing backs through five games (2nd most in NFL). While they haven't allowed a receiving touchdown to a RB this season, that could change Sunday when they face the biggest double-threat in the game: Forte.
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2. Justin Forsett, Running Back, Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
After Forsett exploded for 121 rushing yards to pair with his 49 receiving yards, Ravens fans and fantasy owners alike are high on Forsett's prospects on Sunday when he faces the sluggish San Francisco run defense. The Browns were allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs prior to last week's game, and only increased that deficit after Forsett's big day.
The 49ers have allowed two more rushing touchdowns than the Browns, and Forsett is likely to increase that deficit. In the last two weeks, Forsett has received all four carries when the Ravens enter the red zone, and with backup RB Lorenzo Taliaferro placed on the IR, that trend is bound to continue. Head coach John Harbaugh knows the key to victory against this 49ers defense will be to run, run, and run some more, making Forsett a direct beneficiary.
The 49ers have allowed two more rushing touchdowns than the Browns, and Forsett is likely to increase that deficit. In the last two weeks, Forsett has received all four carries when the Ravens enter the red zone, and with backup RB Lorenzo Taliaferro placed on the IR, that trend is bound to continue. Head coach John Harbaugh knows the key to victory against this 49ers defense will be to run, run, and run some more, making Forsett a direct beneficiary.
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3. Demaryius Thomas, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns
Speaking of the bottom-feeding Browns defense, they have a tough matchup with the Denver Broncos this week. While Denver hasn't lived up this season to the offensive powerhouse expectations of the Peyton Manning era, they're still undefeated and Manning still has elite weapons at his disposal.
Manning's number one option, Thomas, has been the recipient of the third most targets in the 2015 season. Thomas has also been targeted twice in the red zone in each of the past two games. With Joe Haden slated to sit out of this game with a concussion, Thomas will be matched up against low-tier backup cornerbacks who will struggle to contain his 6'3" frame and 4.38 40-yard speed. One touchdown might not be enough as Thomas could have a field day against such lousy competition.
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4. Calvin Johnson, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Megatron has been a red zone threat throughout the entirety of his NFL career. That's typically what happens when you're a 6'5", 238 lb freak of nature. This season, however, he's gotten off to a slow start. Maybe that's because his quarterback, Matthew Stafford, is having his worst season ever. Or maybe it's because plays like this have happened. Regardless, with a 0-5 start to the season, the Lions will do anything to steal a win from the lowly division-rival Bears. The Lions know they have their best chance to do that when they construct a gameplan with Johnson as their go-to target.
Calvin has been targeted six times in the red zone this season (good for 35.3 percent of Detroit's red zone targets) which places him among the Top 10. Combine those multiple opportunities with the fact that the 6'0" 2nd-year corner out of Virginia Tech, Kyle Fuller (-2.1 PFF coverage grade), will be trying to lock down Megatron for most of the night, and Stafford might just be slinging it all night long.
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5. Martellus Bennett, Tight End, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
It seems like every receiving option the Bears were counting on going into the season has missed time due to injury. The sole player that Jay Cutler has been able to build a rapport with in the preseason, and carry into the regular season, has been Bennett. As a result, Bennett has seen a meteoric rise in targets as he leads the league among TEs with 42. He's also seen double-digit targets in each of the last two weeks.
When the Bears march down the field into the red zone, things don't get much different as Bennett's three red zone targets in the past two games put him one behind the leader. This week, Bennett is matched up against a Lions defense that has allowed the third most touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. Facing a linebacker corps that has given up a touchdown to a tight end in every game this season except one, and it's easy to see how Cutler and Bennett will go about dissecting this Lions defense come Sunday.
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6. Tyler Eifert, Tight End, Cincinatti Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
After being placed on this exclusive list last week, Eifert decided to go above and beyond and not only score one touchdown, but two! That was against a Seattle defense that had only given up two touchdowns to tight ends entering that game. Eifert is now inserted into a similar situation this week as Buffalo hasn't given up a third touchdown to TEs this season. That's about to change come Sunday.
We've witnessed "good" Andy Dalton so far this season, and having a monster 6'6" target over the middle has been his biggest asset. Eifert leads all tight ends this season in TDs with five and is second among TEs in red zone targets. Gronkowski ate this Bills linebacker corps alive, posting a 7 Rec/113 Yds/1 TD stat line in their Week 2 matchup. With Eifert hovering around Gronk in almost every category this season, there's no reason to think he can't put up similar numbers against a LB corps that has produced an embarrassing -6.4 PFF coverage grade on the season.
*All stats courtesy of NFL.com, rotowire, and Pro Football Focus
