The State of New York State’s Legal Sports Betting Future

The post The State of New York State’s Legal Sports Betting Future appeared first on SportsHandle.

Legal sports betting in New York could occur before the start of the next legislative session in January, but it wouldn’t be statewide. Why? Because an existing law allows for sports betting at four commercial casinos only, rather than all existing gaming entities, such as racetracks, tribal casinos, or off-track-betting parlors.

The 2013 measure, which passed controversially via a ballot referendum, has caused some confusion about when, where and whether New York will join its neighbor New Jersey in allowing sports betting.

The limited 2013 law has also created a situation in which the state’s gaming commission is currently moving forward with developing sports betting regulations, while on a parallel track, state lawmakers are still discussing plans to legalize statewide.

A State Constitutional Amendment Allows for NY Sports Betting Only at Commercial Casinos — Not Racetracks and Other Gaming Venues.

ny sports betting tioga downs fanduel legal betting
Tioga Downs, near Binghamton and Elmira, N.Y.

According to the 2013 New York Casino Gambling Amendment that altered the state constitution, only the four outlets defined as commercial casinos are eligible to offer sports betting when the gaming commission rolls out its regulations. The four upstate casinos, del Lago in Seneca County, Tioga Downs in Tioga County, Resorts World Catskills in Sullivan County and Rivers in Schenectady County, are all located upstate, not in New York City.

The board, according to spokesman Brad Maione, is crafting regulations. But the process will take time. Once the regulations are written, according to state law, they must first be published in draft form and then open to public comment for up to 45 days. The next step could be public hearings, depending if the board thinks those are warranted, and then the draft regulations go back to the gaming control board for revisions, if needed, then sent to the full commission for a vote and, finally published.

Maione said the entire process takes months – and the gaming commission has not yet released the draft regulations.

When the regulations are published, Maione said sports betting will be taxed at 10 percent, the same rate as other gaming in the state, and no additional legislation is required before the casinos could offer sports betting. And the gaming commission will not need permission or blessing of the legislature or governor to give the four casinos a go-ahead.

An Alternative To a New, More Expansive Amendment.

How might something make its way onto the books in a similar fashion as the 2013 referendum? Not easily. New York is governed by a state constitution that explicitly prohibits gambling with a few specific exceptions. In order to expand on what was accomplished by the 2013 measure, lawmakers would have to create another constitutional amendment – a process that takes years and requires legislation to pass through both chambers of the legislature twice. It is just faster to draft a bill.

To that end, both state senator John Bonacic (R-District 42) and Democratic representative Gary Pretlow (D-District 89) have done just that. During the most recent legislative session that ended on June 20, Bonacic’s S 7900-C went through multiple iterations, but essentially allows all existing gaming entities, including racetracks, OTBs and existing video gaming parlors offer sports betting, and partner with sports betting operators. (In anticipation of such a law coming to fruition in the future, del Lago in July struck an agreement with DraftKings to have the DFS-turned-operator a DraftKings Sportsbook for the property.)

In a Recently Proposed New York Sports Betting Bill, The Capped ‘Integrity Fee’ Gives the Leagues Something, But Just How Much?
Sen. John Bonacic

Pretlow and Bonacic’s bills are identical and both lawmakers have publicly said they think the state should move sooner than later on sports betting. Bonacic’s term ends at the end of the year and serving in the state senate for 20 years, he will not seek re-election.

“Senator Bonacic is hopeful that another member will pick up the torch on sports betting in January,” his chief of staff Andrew Winchell said.

That scenario is likely as Bonacic and Pretlow have rallied plenty of support. But one key sticking point has been governor Andrew Cuomo’s apparent reticence in taking up the sports betting issue. Cuomo is currently running for re-election in November.

All Four of the Major Professional Leagues Have Headquarters in New York City. 

When sports betting does make its way onto the legislative docket, lawmakers will have two bills that include the royalty or “integrity fee” that the pro leagues have been lobbying for in numerous states.

Should New York pass a law that includes a payout to the pro leagues, it would be the first state to do so. With the NBA and Major League Baseball taking the lead, the four major professional leagues have requested a 1 percent cut off all wagers on each respective leagues’ contests, calling their games “intellectual property.” Bonacic’s bill would afford the leagues 1/5 of 1 percent on all wagers.

Four of the states that have rolled out or legalized sports betting since the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was struck down in May, don’t have any professional teams playing in their states – Delaware, Mississippi, Rhode Island and West Virginia.

Legislators in New Jersey, home to the NHL’s Devils and the physical home to the New York Giants and New York Jets, vehemently rejected paying the leagues anything after bearing the costs and frustrations associated with Murphy v. NCAA, the Supreme Court case that rendered PASPA unconstitutional.

While New York would set a precedent by giving the leagues a royalty, it should be noted that the Empire State finds itself in a unique situation. Many states have no meaningful, ongoing relationship with the NFL, NBA, MLB or the National Hockey League. But all four have their headquarters in New York City, providing jobs and some amount of cache for the state.

The royalty or “integrity fee” fee aside, Bonacic and Pretlow are really just looking allow sports betting throughout New York, rather than at four specific locations. Of note in their bills is Pretlow’s proposed 8.5 percent tax rate on gross revenue (lower than the current 10 percent levied on other forms of gaming), making mobile/online gaming legal, and calling for the use of league-produced data in New York — the kind that gaming giant MGM recently purchased from the NBA in a private commercial agreement.

Under the 2013 law, mobile wagering may not be allowed; it’s possible that patrons could place bets on their phones at the four commercial casinos, but only the bettor is physically at the casino.

“When the Gaming Commission comes out with regulations, I really think you’re not going to see a heck of a lot of revenues from sports betting because it will force people to go to the lounge of the four casinos,” Bonacic said at a conference on Tuesday.

So, where does New York go from here? Both parties – the gaming commission and state lawmakers – will continue doing what they’re doing. Given the timing – New York’s legislature doesn’t reconvene until after the first of the year – it seems likely that regulations will be rolled out before a new law passed, giving the upstate casinos a head start vs. other gaming outlets. But those regulations may not be finalized anytime soon.

If and when state lawmakers do get around to passing something, the New York sports betting market is expected to be be pretty huge.

The post The State of New York State’s Legal Sports Betting Future appeared first on SportsHandle.

NFL Week 6 Football Props: Chiefs vs. Patriots

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots have both been playing exceptional football. Following a rocky 1-2 start, the Patriots have bounced back with 2 commanding victories over the Dolphins and Colts. Aided by Josh Gordon and the return of Julian Edelman, New England seems to have found it's offensive rhythm they lacked in

The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots have both been playing exceptional football. Following a rocky 1-2 start, the Patriots have bounced back with 2 commanding victories over the Dolphins and Colts. Aided by Josh Gordon and the return of Julian Edelman, New England seems to have found it’s offensive rhythm they lacked in the first three weeks. They Currently sit atop the AFC East. There were many who considered the Jaguars’ defense to be the only thing that could slow down the dynamics Kansas City offense. The week 5 matchup started with the Chiefs taking a 20-0 lead by halftime, with Blake Bortles having thrown a couple of interceptions. Jacksonville managed to get on the board, but there was never really any hope for a second-half comeback as the Chiefs rolled to a 30-14 victory. Sunday night we’ll get to see the Chiefs head to New England to face their potentially toughest challenge of the season, although they will travel to LA to face the Rams in November. Kansas City defeated New England 42-27 in week 1 of last season. Alternate lines are very popular in Europe and allow the sportsbook provide accelerated lines at better odds. The offering of these alternate lines often come with higher bet commission, but they opportunity for big odds on a two-sided bet can be there every game.

Alternate lines are available at Sugar House Sportsbook if you live in the state of New Jersey.


Chiefs vs. Patriots Point Spread


Martin is a data analyst that has been applauded for his ability to make the complex simple. He grew up on a farm in northern Vermont and spent his summers helping his mom lead llama treks at Smugglers’ Notch Resort.

Martin graduated from University of Vermont with a degree in Mathematics. After graduation he left Vermont to work for an educational nonprofit called City Year for two years, and followed that up by attending the data science immersive program at Galvanize in Denver. He is an avid Green Bay Packer fan, and spends his free time playing football and soccer.

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Get a Grip: The Week in Sports Betting & Sports: SVP, G2E & New Mexico’s a ‘Go’

It’s information overload everywhere, and there’s not time enough to sleep and eat and stay fully apprised of what’s happening on this crazy blue dot of ours (two out of three ain’t bad).

Here’s the weekend Sports Handle item, “Get a Grip,” recapping the week’s top stories, and rounding up key

It’s information overload everywhere, and there’s not time enough to sleep and eat and stay fully apprised of what’s happening on this crazy blue dot of ours (two out of three ain’t bad).

Here’s the weekend Sports Handle item, “Get a Grip,” recapping the week’s top stories, and rounding up key stories in sports betting, gaming, and the world of sports at large. You may have missed them, and they are worth reading.


SVP: Legal Sports Betting Just ‘Common Sense’


ESPN personality Scott Van Pelt didn’t pussyfoot around his thoughts on sports betting at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas earlier this week. Nope, the sometimes irreverent, always hip late-night sports jock just said it like it is on why sports betting should be legal.

“Because I have common sense,” he said in answer to a question from the American Gaming Association’s Sara Slane, per CDC Gaming Reports. “I live in a state (Connecticut) where I can buy lottery tickets at a gas station, go to a casino and play blackjack, but I can’t bet on the Red Sox or the Yankees? People bet. They are adults. I’m in favor of adults doing adult things.”

Van Pelt shared his thoughts on how fast states across the nation would legalize sports betting — “Maybe six months, a year, we’ll get to a point where everyone, even grandma, is out on the dance floor.” And if that would compromise the integrity of games — “You have to be vigilant. You have to be concerned, but you just can’t listen to the conspiracy theorists and the idiots on Twitter”.

 

Read more Get a Grip: The Week in Sports Betting & Sports: SVP, G2E & New Mexico’s a ‘Go’  on SportsHandle.

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Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring

The post Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring appeared first on SportsHandle.

 

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. (Season record: 6-3.)

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying

The post Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring appeared first on SportsHandle.

 

Each week we’ll be providing our top college football picks. (Season record: 6-3.)

Also check out our NFL “Lookahead Lines” story, finding value (or not) by comparing earlier lines, and identifying recency bias.

Back to the college game…

College Football Week 7 Picks: Underdog Duke to Georgia Tech And a Potentially High-Scoring Big Ten Game

 

Michigan State +13.5 over Penn State
Total: OVER 53

Michigan State has struggled this year and is coming off a disappointing home loss to Northwestern as a 10-point favorite, but two touchdowns in this game seems like a bit much.

The Spartans have thrived in this spot going 7-3 in their last 10 games as an away dog. Michigan State is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings and the OVER is 15-3-1 the last 19 meetings. Both of these teams have played high-scoring games over the last two seasons with the OVER 7-1 in Penn State’s last eight and 6-1 in Michigan’s State’s last seven.

The Spartans rank No. 1 in the nation against the run allowing 33.8 yards per game and 1.38 yards per rush. However, the Spartans give up 305 yards per game (122), so expect a lot of passing by both teams Saturday.

I think we see a spirited effort out of the Spartans this week in a high-scoring game. I’ll take the points and OVER 53 (down from a 56 opener) in a game where I had the total in the low 60s.

Read more Week 7 College Football Picks: Underdog Duke, MSU-PSU Scoring on SportsHandle.

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September New Jersey Sports Betting Handle Jumps to $184M, Revenue $24M

In Las Vegas on Tuesday, New Jersey Director of the State’s Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) David Rebuck said that the September sports betting financial reports would be stunning.

They weren’t quite stunning, but the numbers were pretty huge: $184 million betting handle across retail sports betting operations at Atlantic City casinos and

In Las Vegas on Tuesday, New Jersey Director of the State’s Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) David Rebuck said that the September sports betting financial reports would be stunning.

They weren’t quite stunning, but the numbers were pretty huge: $184 million betting handle across retail sports betting operations at Atlantic City casinos and two racetracks, with the majority of the betting handle coming online, $104.8 million, versus $79 million across counters in person. Total revenue was just about $24 million, or a roughly 13 percent hold (which is a bit inflated as a result of accounting methods, explained below).

Month-over-month, the $184M represents nearly a doubling from the $96 million betting handle and $9.2 million revenues in August, when only the DraftKings Sportsbook was operating online the entire month, to be joined in Sept. by FanDuel Sportsbook, SugarHouse, William Hill and others. Below let’s dig a bit closer into the numbers.

 

Read more September New Jersey Sports Betting Handle Jumps to $184M, Revenue $24M on SportsHandle.

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RotoRadar Podcast Episode 6

NFP is pleased to present On the RotoRadar. In partnership with RotoRadar, the podcast will dig deep into DFS advice with their experts as well as NFL best bets from professional sports bettor, Christian Pina. Pina will analyze which games are getting action and why, and provide opportunistic spots and angles including prop bets.

NFP is pleased to present On the RotoRadar. In partnership with RotoRadar, the podcast will dig deep into DFS advice with their experts as well as NFL best bets from professional sports bettor, Christian Pina. Pina will analyze which games are getting action and why, and provide opportunistic spots and angles including prop bets.

DFS analysts and experts include Cash Game Pro Analyst, OnceHarby went an amazing 18-3 last Season. GPP Pro Analyst, FadeToBlack has qualified for three FanDuel Live Finals. Handicapping Pro Analyst and @Ericsports

 

TIME STAMPS

3:38 Seattle Seahawks vs Oakland Raiders

9:10 Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins

13:45 Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets

18:25 Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

27:00 Tampa Bay Bucaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

33:45 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnatti Bengals

41:10 Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings

44:30 San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

47:05 Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Redskins

49:30 Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots

54:15 Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

1:00:30 Twitter Qs

1:07:30 Closing Remarks

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Cover City: NFL Week 6 Picks, Preview And NFL Stats With ESPN’s Mike Clay

 

Sports Handle is pleased to present Cover City: A Pro Football Betting Podcast, hosted by Eric Rosenthal (@ericcports). Rosenthal is a professional sports bettor who focuses on NFL and college football. He’s wagered more than $25 million in the last nine years, getting banned from many sportsbooks along the way.

Before diving

 

Sports Handle is pleased to present Cover City: A Pro Football Betting Podcast, hosted by Eric Rosenthal (@ericcports). Rosenthal is a professional sports bettor who focuses on NFL and college football. He’s wagered more than $25 million in the last nine years, getting banned from many sportsbooks along the way.

Before diving into the NFL Week 6 breakdown and picks, special guest Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL), a projections and fantasy football specialist with ESPN NFL, joins the pod to discuss advanced stats, best wide receivers for Week 6, his top survivor pool picks and more.

Producer Sean Sean Pfeiffer (@RotoRadarCEO) joins to discuss the slate and some big totals, plus don’t miss Rosenthal’s SuperContest picks of the week.

Time codes for the episode follow below. Listen and subscribe on Spotify here.


0:45 – ESPN’s Mike Clay joins the program and explains what you need to know about #ADOT.

3:55 – NFL data is evolving every year. What key metrics can we expect in the next 10 years?

9:21- Rosenthal and Clay discuss the strategy behind two point conversion attempts.

11:55 – Clay talks about who his favorite teams are according to his proprietary algorithm and shares the best odds of winning Week 6 Survivor Pools.

14:18 – Clay talks about his favorite teams to pull off an upset in Week 6: The Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts.

16:02 – Clay’s final thoughts on the scoring trends through Week 5. What does this mean for NFL defenses for the rest of the season?

18:31 – Clay talks about his favorite Wide Receivers of Week 6 and his new column on ESPN Plus. Where does Michael Crabtree rank?

20:05 – Cover City Producer Sean Pfeiffer (@RotoRadarCEO) joins the show to go game-by-game with Eric and cover his favorite bets of Week 6.

20:16 – L.A. Chargers -1 at Cleveland Browns — Will Rosenthal keep his pledge to not bet on the Chargers and Philip Rivers or is the Browns upset too tempting?

22:46 – Carolina Panthers +1 at Washington Redskins — Is the NFC East the worst division in the NFL? Rosenthal breaks down why this game is a winner for sports bettors.

24:41 – Indianapolis Colts +2.5 at N.Y. Jets — How do T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle’s absences impact the Colts this week?

26:31 – Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Dallas Cowboys — Jags and Cowboys face off in what should be a low scoring game.

28:06 – Baltimore Ravens -2.5 at Tennessee Titans — Titans ranked 26th offense but Rosenthal doesn’t trust the Ravens.

29:32 – Arizona Cardinals +10 at Minnesota Vikings — Will the Vikes run away with this one?

30:45 – Houston Texans -10 vs. Buffalo Bills — Sean’s Texans are the favorites, and Rosenthal lays out his Vikings/Texans/Packers teaser.

32:41- San Francisco 49ers +9.5 at Green Bay Packers — The Pack are the heavy favorites and the ideal pick for Rosenthal’s trifecta.

34:42 – Kansas City Chief +3.5 at New England Patriots — With a total at 59.5, watch this game and enjoy it.

37:00 – Rosenthal’s SuperContest picks of the week! (CLE +1, CAR +1, HOU -9.5, IND +2.5, JAX -3)


Bonus! Check out this week’s episode of  The Pro Football Handle featuring Robert Walker And Matt Perrault:

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Listen to more Cover City: NFL Week 6 Picks, Preview And NFL Stats With ESPN’s Mike Clay on SportsHandle.

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Where Do Gubernatorial Candidates Stand on Sports Betting? East Edition

 

Thirty-six states will elect governors next month, and we at Sports Handle wondered if sports betting was among the key issues in any states, or at least on the keychain.

In most cases, sports betting is not a hot topic and likely won’t be a deciding factor in electing a governor, but there

 

Thirty-six states will elect governors next month, and we at Sports Handle wondered if sports betting was among the key issues in any states, or at least on the keychain.

In most cases, sports betting is not a hot topic and likely won’t be a deciding factor in electing a governor, but there are some states where legislatures have been actively exploring sports betting — and having a “friendly” governor will speed the process in those states. But in some cases, sports betting is a non-issue for the election.

Using the Mighty Mississippi as our divider, we present our findings in two parts. Today’s Part I focuses on where gubernatorial candidates in the East stand on sports betting:

Sports Betting Legalization’s Impact on Governor Races Across the U.S.: ‘East Coast’ Edition Looks Up and Down The Atlantic And Over to Central States

Alabama: Democrat Walt Maddox said in August that he believes sports betting should be part of the equation to solve the state’s financial troubles. After tweeting about that in August, he has not offered any additional thoughts on sports betting. The front-runner and incumbent, Republican Kay Ivey, has not weighed on sports betting, and for that matter, according to AL.com, has been avoiding debates or discussing the issues in general.

Read more Where Do Gubernatorial Candidates Stand on Sports Betting? East Edition on SportsHandle.

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‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye

The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye appeared first on SportsHandle.

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “Lookahead Lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one

The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye appeared first on SportsHandle.

Every week, Sports Handle will look at NFL lines, specifically “Lookahead Lines,” to see how they’re moving and why. Lookahead lines are those posted one week prior to a game or even before the season has begun, as CG Technology does.

By comparing changes between current lines and the numbers hung days earlier, we can get a sense of where recency bias or overreactions are seeping in.

We’ll highlight the significant shifts, look for value and suggest when it’s a good idea to get behind or stay away from certain teams. Here’s a look at the Week NFL 5 line moves and what it means to bettors. (Note: odds indicated based on current numbers at several Las Vegas sportsbooks.)

NFL Week 6 Lookahead and Current Line Moves Show Value on Miami Hosting Chicago; Falcons-Bucs Line Contracts As Atlanta Circles Drain; Faith In Raiders Bottoming Out

nfl week 6 picks bears dolphins lookahead lines

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins (+3 or especially +3.5)

The Bears come into Week 6 at 3-1 and atop the NFC North standings. Chicago was once 100/1 to win the Super Bowl this summer and are now down to 25/1 at the SuperBook.

Last week the SuperBook had the Dolphins -1. That line was similar to the one CG Technology released in May at Miami -1.5. However, the line has gone up the Bears -3 and Chicago didn’t even play last week.

While people’s perception of the Bears has changed since the season started, the Dolphins are going in the opposite direction. After starting the year 3-0, Miami has lost its last two games to the Patriots and Bengals by at least 10 points. One thing to keep in mind is the Bears have only played one road game this year, a 16-14 win over the Cardinals. The Dolphins beat the Titans 27-20 and the Raiders 28-20 in their two home games.

Miami is coming off a face-melting 27-17 loss to the Bengals after Cincinnati scored 24 fourth quarter points to win by 10, and cover 6.5. This movement spells some value on Miami as the 3-point home dog and especially if you grab an available hook.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)

This game has seen the biggest line movement after the Falcons got blown out in Pittsburgh last week to drop to 1-4 on the season. The Buccaneers had a bye last week and will be making the switch to Jameis Winston at quarterback.

CG Technology made the Falcons a touchdown favorite back in May. The SuperBook’s early number was similar with the Falcons -6.5 last week. After the Falcons got blown out by the Steelers 41-17 on Sunday, the SuperBook released the line at Atlanta -3.5 and it hasn’t moved off that number as of Wednesday.

There could be some value taking the Falcons here, although they haven’t had much of a home field advantage this year, going 1-2 SU and ATS, and have hemorrhaged 43, 37 and 41 points in their past three contests. 


Seattle Seahawks vs. Oakland Raiders (+3) – London

This game is being played in London and the Seahawks are seeing the line shift their way coming off a home loss to the Rams. The SuperBook made this game a pick ’em last week and then opened Seattle at -3. 

Even though the Seahawks are 2-3, the line says more about how bettors perceive the Raiders. The Jon Gruden era is off to a slow start with Oakland opening the season at 1-4. The Raiders have played three close game but they looked bad in a 26-10 blowout loss to the Chargers last week, while the Seahawks played well against the undefeated Rams, losing 33-31 as a 7-point underdog.

The London games are always tough because theirs no home field edge. The Seahawks look to be a little overvalued when you consider they’re coming off an emotional loss and now have to travel to London. This number looks like it should be closer to the pick it was last week and the -3 is an overreaction to Sunday’s results.


Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (+3)

The Titans are leading the AFC South with a record of 3-2 and the Ravens are coming off a 12-9 loss to the Browns. Despite the Titans’ early season success, the line has gone towards the Ravens on the road.

Last week, the SuperBook had Baltimore -1 on the early lines but even after the Ravens’ loss to the Browns, the number has gone to -3. CG Technology had the Titans a 2.5-point favorite back in May and it can be argued that after five games, Tennessee has exceeded expectations.

The Titans are winning ugly and that kind of style typically doesn’t get the public excited. Tennessee has won both its home games by three points but a 13-12 loss in Buffalo last week is one reason the line went up to three. Losing to the Bills is one way to change the public’s perception of a team.

Note that the Ravens are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Titans are worth a look as one of the most undervalued teams in the NFL, while the average Ravens tend to be overvalued right now.


Also Check Out:

On The Pro Football Handle, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmakingdive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

Here’s the NFL Week 6 pod:

Don’t be a Square: Subscribe to our once-a-week newsletter for the latest sports betting news and insights
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The post ‘Lookahead Lines’: Dolphins Spread Moves Out to Key Number Hosting Bears, Who Were Idle Last Week on Bye appeared first on SportsHandle.

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Ballin’ on a Budget Week 6 Picks

Welcome back for another stress-filled week of NFL betting. There are a lot of lines to love this week, so let’s get right to it. We’re going to invest the right amount of money on each game this time, since our biggest problem this year has been putting big money on the wrong

Welcome back for another stress-filled week of NFL betting. There are a lot of lines to love this week, so let’s get right to it. We’re going to invest the right amount of money on each game this time, since our biggest problem this year has been putting big money on the wrong games even while picking at a 58 percent clip. Let’s get to it.

Panthers over Redskins (EVEN)

I get it. This is a trap game. Carolina is coming off a last-second win thanks to a 63-yard Graham Gano field goal and the Redskins are coming off a thumping on the road against the Saints on Monday Night Football. It’s in Washington. Trust me, I understand that all signs are pointing toward not betting on Carolina this week. Simply, I don’t care.

The Panthers are just the better football team and when you can get value like this, you take it. Carolina is a one-point road underdog, making them even money to win straight up. There are plenty of reasons not to like this, such as Washington being desperate and at home, but again, Cam Newton and Co. are starting to click and that makes this really good value. The bet: $3 for total payout of $6.

Seahawks -3 vs. Raiders (EVEN)

Here’s another good even money value. This game is being played in London, so it is likely to be a little quirky. Oakland hasn’t been able to muster a pass rush this year (Hmm, I wonder why), so Russell Wilson will have plenty of time to throw. Has the Seattle defense been as good as usual? No, but they’re good enough to contain an inconsistent Derek Carr for 60 minutes.

I’ve liked Seattle most weeks this year and they covered at home against the Rams last week. I think they keep rolling and grab a much-needed win against an inferior team, even if the game is being played across the pond. The bet: $3 for total payout of $6.

Ravens -3 at Titans (-110)

It feels as though I get screwed every time I pick against the Titans this season. They’re just a weird team. The defense is for real, but the offense can’t get out of its own way. Coming off a 13-12 loss to the Bills, they’re going to be hungry at home. Baltimore is going to be hungry too, coming off an overtime loss to the Browns.

To keep pace in the competitive AFC North, this is one Baltimore has to have and with the spread only being a three points, it provides us that much-needed cushion of getting a push if they win by a field goal. This feels like an over correction from odds makers in response to Baltimore’s loss to Cleveland last Sunday and it seems wise to hop on them the week after such a disappointing loss. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.70.

Patriots -3 vs. Chiefs (-120)

I absolutely love this pick. Kansas City traditionally starts out very strong and then tapers off toward the middle of the season. Especially with a rookie quarterback, even one as talented as Patrick Mahomes, they’re prone to that happening again. For the first time all season, the defense showed up against the Jaguars, so that’s reason to think K.C. may be more complete than originally thought, but it’s just tough to march into Foxborough and march out with a win.

Bill Belichick doesn’t have a stellar defense, but you better believe they’ll have some schemes in place to limit Mahomes’ effectiveness. This should be a close game. When big games are close in Foxborough, the Patriots are rarely on the losing side. Take this one to the bank. The bet: $10 for total of $18.33.

Jaguars-Cowboys OVER 40.5 points (-110)

This over/under is so low, it’s really hard not to take it. I’m relying on the Jaguars to continue their trend of having a good offensive showing every other week. Dallas has shown no signs of life on offense and against a tough Jaguars defense, they could be in for a long day. The biggest thing we’re relying on here is a big day from Jacksonville.

A score like 30-17 sounds about right and that would get us over by a touchdown. It could easily backfire and turn into the disaster that our OVER pick of the Browns’ 12-9 win over the Ravens became last week, but this is one worth taking our chances on. The bet: $2 for total payout of $3.80.

The parlay option: As usual, let’s dream about what we’ll make if all five games hit. This week, with a few EVEN money games being thrown into the mix, it would be a doozy. To be exact, we’d be betting $20 to win $534.40. Fingers crossed for us all. Happy Week 6, the week we shoot into the green.

Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 6 Breakdown, KC-NE, LAR-DEN, Big Total to Look Under

The post ‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 6 Breakdown, KC-NE, LAR-DEN, Big Total to Look Under appeared first on SportsHandle.

On The Pro Football Handle, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmaking dive into select NFL

The post ‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 6 Breakdown, KC-NE, LAR-DEN, Big Total to Look Under appeared first on SportsHandle.

On The Pro Football Handle, Las Vegas-based sports talk voice Matt Perrault and veteran bookmaker Robert Walker of USBookmaking dive into select NFL games, line movements and bookmaker liabilities, plus greater sports betting topics and stories that may have nothing to do with football. Walker has seen it all behind the counter and Perrault the same from behind the microphone, so they’ll have you prepared for anything.

It’s already NFL Week 6! This week the guys have spent some time soaking up the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) floor, some new sports betting products and also a borderline contentious panel that included an MLB and a gaming association executive.

On the gridiron, some home dogs for your consideration,  first international game of the season. And scoring is up 10 percent over last year with another total in the 60s (!!) in the marquee matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs at Foxboro to face the New England Patriots. Giddy up!

Spotify fans go here to listen.  Time codes for the episode follow below. Your feedback is welcome at @sports_handle.

1:18: The show’s on the road from G2E and the MLB is at the to sell its “integrity fee” or rather by rebranding it as a “royalty.” Sports Handle Editor in Chief Brett Smiley jumps on to discuss public perception of the integrity fee/royalty debate.

9:36: The future of retail and mobile wagering and Nevada’s archaic in-person sign up requirement.

19:40: Philadelphia Eagles -3 at N.Y.Giants — Opened -3 Philly, now at -3 even money. Why move the price not the line?

24:33: L.A. Chargers -1 at Cleveland Browns — Home dogs historically do well or at least have “sharp” bettor backing. Chargers are slight favorites or about a pick ‘em game.

28:03: Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Oakland Raiders (London) — How do international games impact bookmaking? Both teams are desperate and it’s a neutral field.

30:43: Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Dallas Cowboys — The Jags are a juggernaut, but QB Blake Bortles is a singular (and key) fatal flaw.  

33:36: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Cincinnati Bengals — The public is buying into the changes the Steelers made last week and it’s a “show me” game for Cincy to prove if they are one of the best teams in AFC.

37:17: Chicago Bears -3 at Miami Dolphins: What is Miami? At least the Bears are the better team.

39:02: Totals talk: Rarely do NFL totals exceed 60, and scoring is 10 percent higher than the 2017 season. The guys identify a good under bet.

40:53: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 at New England Patriots — Will the Brady vs. Mahomes showdown live up to the hype? Maybe take the under…

46:11: Los Angeles Rams -7 at Denver Broncos — Broncos or pass…

Have a profitable Week 6, folks. Follow Perrault on Twitter @sportstalkmatt and Walker @robertusfsports.

Thanks for listening and see you back next week, tell a friend, sign up for our newsletter and also check out our Cover City Podcast, featuring sports bettor Eric Rosenthal.

 
 

Listen to more episodes of ‘Pro Football Handle’: NFL Week 6 Breakdown, KC-NE, LAR-DEN, Big Total to Look Under  on SportsHandle.

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New Jersey Adds Additional 1.25% Tax on Sports Betting Revenue

Less than five months after New Jersey won the Supreme Court battle that allowed its casinos to offer sports betting, taxes are going up. According to the Press of Atlantic City, Governor Phil Murphy signed off on a 1.25 percent sports betting tax increase last week to benefit the state’s ailing Casino Reinvestment

Less than five months after New Jersey won the Supreme Court battle that allowed its casinos to offer sports betting, taxes are going up. According to the Press of Atlantic City, Governor Phil Murphy signed off on a 1.25 percent sports betting tax increase last week to benefit the state’s ailing Casino Reinvestment Development Agency. That brings the tax on net sports betting revenue to 9.75 percent at brick-and-mortar sports books and 13 percent on mobile and online sports betting.

For comparison, Nevada taxes its sports betting revenue at 6.75 percent, West Virginia at 10 percent and Mississippi at 12 percent. Sportsbooks haven’t opened in Pennsylvania yet, but the rate there will be 36 percent, while Delaware and Rhode Island (which expects to open for sports betting next month) effectively pay more a more than 50 percent tax rate under partnership programs with their state governments.

The CRDA will earmark the funds for “marketing and promotion.” According to the Press of Atlantic City, the additional tax from casino sportsbooks will be used to market Atlantic City specifically while the additional tax revenue generated from Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands Racetrack will be funneled directly to the towns in which the tracks are located.

Read more New Jersey Adds Additional 1.25% Tax on Sports Betting Revenue on SportsHandle.

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Top New Jersey Regulator Calls Out Pro Leagues ‘Fear Mongering’ on Sports Betting

New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement Director (DGE) David Rebuck on Tuesday offered his blunt assessment of the NFL’s characterization of the state of sports betting in the U.S.: “Nonsense.”

The NFL’s stance, voiced again at House of Representatives hearing on Sept. 27, was that states legalizing sports wagering are now engaging in

New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement Director (DGE) David Rebuck on Tuesday offered his blunt assessment of the NFL’s characterization of the state of sports betting in the U.S.: “Nonsense.”

The NFL’s stance, voiced again at House of Representatives hearing on Sept. 27, was that states legalizing sports wagering are now engaging in a “regulatory race to the bottom,” which Rebuck called “fear mongering” and “nonsense.”

Rebuck’s remarks came during a Global Gaming Expo (G2E) panel in Las Vegas alongside Pennsylvania’s Susan Hensel, Director of Licensing for the state’s gaming control board, and Matthew Morgan, Director of Gaming Affairs for the Chickasaw Nation. Rebuck’s criticism focused in part on the “integrity fee” as well as Major League Baseball and NBA’s efforts at compelling lawmakers to require state-licensed sportsbooks to use “official league data” for grading wagers, which he framed as fundamentally anti-business, and a mandate that New Jersey unequivocally will not implement.

 

Read more Top New Jersey Regulator Calls Out Pro Leagues ‘Fear Mongering’ on Sports Betting  on SportsHandle.

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Ohio Lawmakers Hold Meetings in Preparation of Drafting Sports Betting Bill

Ohio lawmakers on Tuesday hosted two meetings as the first step to crafting passable sports betting legislation. The meetings, hosted by senators John Eklund and Sean O’Brien (D-District 32), left Eklund feeling like lawmakers are on the right path.

“We’re taking the information we gathered at these meetings and the sponsors will get

Ohio lawmakers on Tuesday hosted two meetings as the first step to crafting passable sports betting legislation. The meetings, hosted by senators John Eklund and Sean O’Brien (D-District 32), left Eklund feeling like lawmakers are on the right path.

“We’re taking the information we gathered at these meetings and the sponsors will get together and see if we can put some meat on the bones,” he said. “We’ll draft a bill and then entertain comments and suggestions, and I’d hope we might have a substantive bill ready to go. If not, we might need some more meetings.”

Eklund is aiming to have an outline done in a couple of weeks and, with any luck, a bill drafted shortly after that. Both the Ohio Senate and House have up to six sessions on the calendar in November and up to seven each in December. The goal would be to pass legislation before the end of 2018, otherwise, a new bill would need to be introduced at the start of the 2019 session.

 

Read more Ohio Lawmakers Hold Meetings in Preparation of Drafting Sports Betting Bill  on SportsHandle.

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NFL Week 6: Over and Under Best Bets

This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we're making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we're offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week. 

Over and Under Best Bets

Over of

This NFL season, with sports betting expected to be a more common and accepted practice, we’re making a point to look beyond point spreads and analyze often-neglected totals. As part of that approach, we’re offering up our favorite bet over and favorite under each week. 

Over and Under Best Bets

Over of the week: Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

Total: 45

Just in their last two games, the Colts have scored 58 points and allowed 75. Meanwhile, the Jets have scored at 34 or more points in two of their first five games and are one week removed from surrendering 31 points to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Don’t be surprised if both teams hit the 30 plateau when they meet Sunday in New Jersey.

The Colts have finally been letting it rip more offensively with Andrew Luck under center, and Luck might have a healthier supporting cast than he did against the New England Patriots in Week 5. It also helps that the New England game took place on a Thursday night, giving that banged-up unit extra time to rest and recover.

The Jets are feeling it offensively after lighting up a good Denver Broncos defense in Week 5, and there’s no reason to expect Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson and Isaiah Crowell to slow down against a Colts D that ranks in the bottom five in terms of points allowed per game.

I’m guessing this total is a lower than the league median because the books don’t totally trust either team and they’re both quite unpredictable, but it’s hard to imagine these offenses failing to combine for 50 or more points.

Predicted score: Colts 30, Jets 27

Under of the week: Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans

Total: 41

The Chiefs are due for a dud. It happens to every offense, and there were indications it was happening to red-hot

The Ravens were held to just nine points last week and have held opponents to fewer than 15 in four of their first five outings. Meanwhile, two of Tennessee’s last three affairs have contained 25 or fewer points.

Despite high preseason expectations for both offenses (and a strong start from Joe Flacco and Co.) both teams have experienced more unders than overs this season. And while Vegas has reacted by setting a low total of 41 for their Sunday meeting in Nashville, it’s not low enough.

This game has “16-13” written all over it. Baltimore’s D is stout and consistent, and Flacco and the offense have come back to earth. Tennessee has the league’s top-rated red-zone defense, while the Ravens also rank in the top 10 in that category.

The books have been reluctant to drop totals below 40 during the highest-scoring season in NFL history, but this is one of those situations in which they couldn’t go low enough. This one might fall short of the 30 mark.

Predicted score: Ravens 16, Titans 13

Good luck, we’re all counting on you. 

Previous results
Last week: 2-0
2018 season: 5-5

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL since 2007 and is a member of the Professional Football Writers of America, despite the fact he actually lives in Canada. The Toronto-based sports journalist’s work can also be seen at Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Awful Announcing and The Guardian. He can be found on Twitter @brad_gagnon

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Scientific Games Acquires Don Best Sports

 

The parade of change continues in the nation’s nascent sports wagering industry with today’s announcement that Scientific Games Corporation is acquiring Las Vegas-based Don Best Sports Corporation and DBS Canada Corporation for an undisclosed purchase price.

The deal is expected to close by the end of the year.

The purchase became public knowledge

 

The parade of change continues in the nation’s nascent sports wagering industry with today’s announcement that Scientific Games Corporation is acquiring Las Vegas-based Don Best Sports Corporation and DBS Canada Corporation for an undisclosed purchase price.

The deal is expected to close by the end of the year.

The purchase became public knowledge early Tuesday and a key Don Best executive confirmed the sale to Sports Handle, saying he would provide a company statement soon, but cannot comment further right now because of “public company sensitivities.”

Scientific Games Buys Don Best Sports, Expands Company’s Sports Betting Offerings, Particularly in the U.S. 

Don Best has been a major sports wagering information provider for decades, orchestrating worldwide sports betting through its “Official International Rotation” listing games for all major U.S. sports leagues, time changes, game locations and betting numbers in a specific order or rotation.

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Ballin’ on a Budget Week 5 Results

I hate to say we resembled the Browns the last two weeks, but just like Cleveland’s season-long record, we have gone 2-2-1 over the past two Sundays. Houston really should have put us at 3-2 on the week, but they twice failed to score points from inside the one-yard line. As it happened,

I hate to say we resembled the Browns the last two weeks, but just like Cleveland’s season-long record, we have gone 2-2-1 over the past two Sundays. Houston really should have put us at 3-2 on the week, but they twice failed to score points from inside the one-yard line. As it happened, they won on a game-ending field goal to give us the push, but we could have finally been in the green if they’d been able to dial up any successful play call on several tries from the goal line.

We won’t get bitter, we’ll get better. We’ve only picked more losers than winners one week out of five this season, so that should be seen as a good sign of things to come. Here’s a recap from all the games we picked over the past week.

LOSS: Broncos to beat the Jets (-110): Jets 34, Broncos 16.

Wow, did Denver look bad in this game. After taking the Chiefs to the brink at home, the Broncos looked like a whole other team in the Meadowlands. Chalk it up to the short week or whatever you want, but there are very few excuses to allowing Sam Darnold and company to torch you all afternoon.

The Broncos are officially in a long list of teams that are now dangerous to bet either way, just because they’re too unpredictable. It was good value to get them at -1 headed into the week, but New York showed some fight and started our week on a sour note. The win: $0.

PUSH: Texans -3 vs. Cowboys (-110): Texans 19, Cowboys 16 (OT)

Like we mentioned off the top, if Houston was able to come away with ANY points on two drives that found them in goal-to-go situations from the one-yard line, we would have easily won this bet. We did catch a break with Jason Garrett deciding to punt on fourth and one in overtime on the Texans side of the 50.

That terrible decision allowed Houston to drive the length of the field and kick the game winning field goal to earn us the push. It certainly could’ve been better, but based on how overtime played out, it could have also been worse. Total win: $4.

LOSS: Browns-Ravens OVER 47 points: Browns 12, Ravens 9 (OT)

I’m at a loss for words. Wow, was this a brutal game. When you get five field goals in a game, you know you’re probably not hitting an over. When those five field goals are the ONLY POINTS OF THE GAME, you know you’re toast. Both these teams showed an ability to be explosive on offense in past weeks, which made you think they should both be well into the 20’s in this one.

However, neither offense could convert inside the red zone and that is the biggest killer of overs. Just imagine if a few field goals had turned into touchdowns. This would have been a lot closer. As it stands, we didn’t get halfway there, so we’ll try to block this one out of memory. The win: $0.

WIN: Jaguars-Chiefs UNDER 49 points: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 14.

Breathe a sigh of relief, because this was almost a terrible beat. The under seemed well in hand after we realized the Jaguars couldn’t move the ball offensively, but everything was almost ruined late. With Kansas City leading 30-14, the Jaguars marched the ball down the field on a meaningless drive in the closing minutes. Jacksonville got inside the red zone, but Blake Bortles threw an interception in the end zone to end it. The win: $7.60.

They had a couple legit shots at the end zone and had they been able to complete it, we would’ve lost this under by two garbage time points. We will thank the sports betting gods for now, while acknowledging that probably means we will be on the other side of this luck at some point later in the season.

WIN: Dolphins-Bengals UNDER 49.5 points: Bengals 27, Dolphins 17.

Betting the Bengals -3 wouldn’t have been a bad move in this game either, but the under hit, which is all that matters for us. A late Bengals touchdown made it closer than it actually was; this was pretty much in hand most of the game. Cincinnati didn’t set the world on fire with Joe Mixon back in the starting lineup, but they did enough while holding Miami in check.

So, we picked three over/unders this week and all of them went under. Luckily, we had two out of the three correct. Remember, life might be too short to take the under, but unders hit slightly more than half the time. The win: $7.60.

PIGGY BANK: $91.31 (-8.7% return on investment)

PICK PERCENTAGE: 58%

Our ROI and pick percentage look to be at odds with one another. We’re approaching that magical 60 percent pick mark now, but we’ve been putting too much money on losing games. This coming week, we will put a large percentage on the games we’re most confident in, in an effort to finally get us solidly into the green. With us gaining more information on teams each week, we should get better as the season goes along. Keep an eye out for Week 6 picks coming in the next couple days.

Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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USBookmaking Partners With Tribal Casino to Offer New Mexico Sports Betting

In what could be a precedent-setting advancement of sports wagering, a New Mexico tribal casino says it will begin offering sports betting next week.

Las Vegas-based USBookmaking said Monday it has an agreement to provide Nevada-style sports betting services to the Santa Ana Star Casino & Hotel, a tribal gaming operation in near Albuquerque.

Although

In what could be a precedent-setting advancement of sports wagering, a New Mexico tribal casino says it will begin offering sports betting next week.

Las Vegas-based USBookmaking said Monday it has an agreement to provide Nevada-style sports betting services to the Santa Ana Star Casino & Hotel, a tribal gaming operation in near Albuquerque.

Although sports wagering is not currently legal in New Mexico, this is believed to be the second state tribal operation to move forward with sports wagering plans by taking the position that sports betting is permissible under its current compact with the state.

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Source: DraftKings, MLB Partnering On Groundbreaking Sports Betting App

A major collaboration between Major League Baseball (MLB) and DraftKings, the leading Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) operator, will be a part of a series of major announcements at next week’s Global Gaming Expo (G2E) convention in Las Vegas, Sports Handle has learned.

A source with knowledge of the negotiations says DraftKings will announce

A major collaboration between Major League Baseball (MLB) and DraftKings, the leading Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) operator, will be a part of a series of major announcements at next week’s Global Gaming Expo (G2E) convention in Las Vegas, Sports Handle has learned.

A source with knowledge of the negotiations says DraftKings will announce plans for a new, comprehensive sports wagering app that will include the ability to stream MLB games. The source says that, at first, the app would only have DFS play options available, but would soon allow full-fledged, single-game betting as well — in legal, regulated markets such as New Jersey, where the DraftKings Sportsbook was first to market in August with its online sportsbook and mobile apps.

Neither DraftKings nor MLB was available late Friday to comment on the move that would create a groundbreaking synergy between a major sports league and a sports wagering outlet.

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The Analyst: Mobile Apps Changing Game For Bettors’ Habits

Profits in any casino game comes from the volume of activity in the category of the wager. Sounds profound, but the principle is simple. Let’s say one person makes one bet of $100,000 on a casino game that has a 5 percent casino advantage.

With one bet, the bettor either wins or loses $100,000 conversely

Profits in any casino game comes from the volume of activity in the category of the wager. Sounds profound, but the principle is simple. Let’s say one person makes one bet of $100,000 on a casino game that has a 5 percent casino advantage.

With one bet, the bettor either wins or loses $100,000 conversely the casino either wins or loses $100,000. However, if 2,000 people each make a $5 wager on the same casino game for total wagers of $100,000 the likely result is that the casino will win a net of $5,000, which is the casino game’s advantage of 5 percent.

The 5 percent game advantage against the volume of 2,000 $5 bets allows that math of the game to work and provides the casino an expectation of the win that allows the casino to operate. With most casino games the casino win comes from multiple similar bets repeatedly made.

In slots and video poker games some serious players can play several hundred games in an hour. In blackjack, a fast player can play between 90 and 120 hands an hour,. But in the sports book, the number of bets a gambler can make tends to be limited to their bankroll and how many games are available to bet and often is in the form of three or four bets for a three to four-hour period. Add the challenge of standing in line to make a bet the process itself slows the betting opportunities for the gambler.

 

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Ballin’ on a Budget Week 5 Picks

I’m confident. This is the week we climb into the green. Even while picking at a 55 percent clip, we’ve just been putting the bulk our money on the losing picks, even when we get 3 or 4 out of 5 picks right in a week. To combat this, we’re going to put

I’m confident. This is the week we climb into the green. Even while picking at a 55 percent clip, we’ve just been putting the bulk our money on the losing picks, even when we get 3 or 4 out of 5 picks right in a week. To combat this, we’re going to put the exact same amount of money on all five picks this week. That way, if we get 3 out of 5, we will make some money, as opposed to the last two weeks where that was the case and we actually lost a couple dollars.

There is lots to like this week and actually, the over/unders look more intriguing than most of the point spreads. We’ll take a deeper dive into why that is and what you can expect from Week 5.

Week 5 Picks

Broncos to beat the Jets (-110)

Denver will be playing the Jets on the road and are one-point favorites, so we might as well pick them straight up to get a little more value. The only place that will hurt us is we will lose the bet if there’s a tie. After nearly knocking off the Chiefs at home on Monday Night Football, not only will the Broncos be hungry, they will be desperate. Now at 2-2 and seeing Kansas City might not be slowing down anytime soon, the Broncos need this win more than the Jets do.

Imagine that Broncos pass rush against rookie Sam Darnold, who has struggled mightily lately. It’s just hard to imagine a world where Darnold makes the plays he needs to in order to win this game. Denver is playing on a short week, so it might not be pretty, but expect them to get the job done. Since we’re just betting them straight to win, that’s all they have to do for us to be in the money. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Texans -3 vs. Cowboys (-110)

Houston finally got its first win of the season last week thanks to iffy decisions from the Colts. When Indy could have punted in the closing minute of overtime to basically ensure a tie, they went for it on fourth and 4 and didn’t pick up the first down. The Texans then just had to drive 10-15 yards to get into field goal range, which they did and kicked the game winning field goal as time expired. Deshaun Watson is starting to get some of his playmaking ability back and it looks like Houston could finally hit its stride.

They’re at home, which helps a ton. Dak Prescott did have his first above average game in recent memory last Sunday, so we will see if his strong play continues. You shouldn’t rely on that happening, though, especially against a stout Texans defense. With Houston looking to build some momentum and climb back into the playoff picture, it’s safe to pick them as field goal favorites at home. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Ravens-Browns OVER 47 points (-110)

Let’s stop fooling ourselves into thinking these AFC North match ups are defensive showdowns anymore. The truth is, most of the defenses in the division stink. Cleveland actually probably has the best one of the bunch. The offenses are something to like, though, and that’s why I love this over. Cleveland has been involved in shootouts ever since Baker Mayfield took over and win or lose, they’re putting up points. This should be a competitive game and the only way we fall to the under is if this becomes a battle of field position in the first half.

With the way Cleveland’s been playing the last two weeks, expect this to be a competitive game. It’s not hard to imagine both teams climbing into the 20’s. It will all come down to these teams cashing in red zone trips with touchdowns instead of field goals. Both Baltimore and Cleveland rank in the top 10 (Baltimore fourth, Cleveland ninth) in touchdown percentage inside the red zone, which is a good indication the over has a great chance of hitting. Let’s hope for another shootout. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Jaguars-Chiefs UNDER 49 points (-110)

The Chiefs are coming off an emotional win on a short week. Jacksonville will now be the second tough defense in a row that Patrick Mahomes and Co. will have faced. He struggled early against Denver, but figured things out late. Can he do it against the best defense in the league? It’s going to be tough. By no means am I saying the Chiefs can’t win this game, but this might finally be their first low-scoring affair of the season.

Really, our biggest fear should be Blake Bortles having another stellar performance and putting up points for the Jags, but he’s been so up and down, it’s hard to say he will be effective. If the Jaguars get up early and the Chiefs are playing catch up, this thing is going to go over in a hurry. Under pretty much any other scenario, it’s likely we’ll see the under. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

Dolphins-Bengals UNDER 49.5 (-110)

It seems like the Dolphins were exposed as frauds last week with their blowout loss against the Patriots. Cincinnati also seemed to cement itself as an AFC contender with a big come-from-behind win over the Falcons to improve to 3-1. With Joe Mixon potentially back in the fold, the Bengals’ offense will be that much more explosive. This should be a Bengals win, so we just need to hope they’re limited to around 30 points.

As long as they’re held around that mark and the Cincy defense applies pressure on Ryan Tannehill, it doesn’t seem likely Miami is going to be able to keep up. If running back Kenyan Drake is finally able to break out for the Dolphins, it could be a whole other story, but until we see that happen, we’re not going to bet on it. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.

The parlay option: If you take your $20 and parlay all five of these picks today, you’re in for a big pay day if we go 5 for 5. If we go perfect on picks this week, it would be a total payout of $507.06. Let’s cross our fingers for that, huh?

Unlike past weeks, we will have a much closer eye on over/unders this week. It should be an interesting slate of games. We’ll check back in later in the week, hopefully to recap a perfect week, and our fourth winning week out of five this season.

Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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