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PredictionMachine.com – NFL Content ArticlesNFL Picks Week 1: Expert Analysis and Betting Strategies @ PredictionMachine.comNFL 2015 Picks Predictions and Results for Every Game @ PredictionMachine.comBankroll Management: Optimal Sports Betting Using Play Value Calculator and the Kelly CriterionInteresting line movements in betting spreads Week 1 NFLWhich NFL coach is getting fired first? @ PredictionMachine.comA betting trend for every NFL team heading into Week 1 @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Playoff Value Odds @ PredictionMachine.comOdds to lead the NFL in passing, rushing and receiving yards? @ PredictionMachine.comAverage Draft Position Update Week 2 Preseason @ PredictionMachine.comAnalyzing the impact of Jordy Nelson’s injury Green Bay Packers @ PredictionMachine.comPPR Value Picks Cheat Sheet @ PredictionMachine.comFantasy Football Best Draft Position @ PredictionMachine.comHow Valuable is Each NFL quarterback and the teams backup? @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Fantasy Football Breakout Stars @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Fantasy Football Busts @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers @ PredictionMachine.comWR Position Battles (08/05/15)2015 training camp position battles running backs @ PredictionMachine.com2015 training camp position battles quarterbacks @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL team Impact Score Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comWhich NFL playoff teams from a year ago will be left out of the postseason in 2015? @ PredictionMachine.comOffensive Lines Matter – Denver and Seattle expected to take a step back @ PredictionMachine.comThe 2015 Jacksonville Jaguars are on the clock @ PredictionMachine.comWhich teams are most likely to participate in Super Bowl 50? @ PredictionMachine.comThe Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings will make the NFL Playoffs @ PredictionMachine.comWho is the No. 1 running back in fantasy football? @ PredictionMachine.comWho is the top rookie quarterback in fantasy football? @ PredictionMachine.comWhat impact does Dez Bryant have on the Dallas Cowboys @ PredictionMachine.comJarvis Landry is one of just four receivers to top 100 receptions @ PredictionMachine.comWho will be the highest scoring player in fantasy football? @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Defensive Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Offensive Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com2015 secondary position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Linebacker position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Defensive line position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Offensive line position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com2015 Offensive Skill position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comCam Newton’s contract impact for Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck @ PredictionMachine.comHow does the retirement of three starters impact San Francisco 49ers’ defense? @ PredictionMachine.comDeflategate punishment moves the lines in Las Vegas @ PredictionMachine.comWhat impact will Tom Brady’s four game suspension have on the Patriots’ season? @ PredictionMachine.comLife without Brady, what impact would a suspension have on the Patriots�™ season @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Win Totals per Westgate SuperBook @ PredictionMachine.comMike Wallace Impact Score Minnesota Vikings @ PredictionMachine.comPost Draft Super Bowl 50 Odds @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the AFC West @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the NFC West @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the AFC South @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the NFC South @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the AFC North @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Week 1 betting lines @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the NFC North @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the AFC East @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Draft needs for the NFC East @ PredictionMachine.comTim Tebow impact on the Philadelphia Eagles @ PredictionMachine.comWhat does the LeSean McCoy trade to Buffalo mean for each team? @ PredictionMachine.comSuper Bowl 50 Odds to win @ PredictionMachine.comGame-changing plays from Super Bowl XLIX @ PredictionMachine.comPrintable Props Pick’em @ PredictionMachine.comPrintable Props Pick’em @ PredictionMachine.comThe publics five most popular prop bets @ PredictionMachine.comSuper Bowl Simulations Brady vs. Wilson, Brady and Lynch Suspended @ PredictionMachine.comCross Sports prop bets Super Bowl XLIX New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.comPlayer vs Player prop bets Super Bowl XLIX New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Trends for Super Bowl @ PredictionMachine.comDeflate-Gate Prop Bets for the New England Patriots @ PredictionMachine.comSuper Bowl XLIX MVP Odds @ PredictionMachine.comGame-changing plays from the NFL conference championships 2015 @ PredictionMachine.com2012 NFL Draft Re-do @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Trends for Conference Championship @ PredictionMachine.comPeyton Manning retirement odds @ PredictionMachine.comOdds to win the Super Bowl @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Divisional GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Line movement 2015 Divisional Round @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Trends for Divisional Round @ PredictionMachine.comFlipping Peyton Manning for Andrew Luck in playoffs @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Wild Card GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Line movement Wild Card Weekend @ PredictionMachine.com2015 NFL Trends for Wild Card Weekend @ PredictionMachine.comExact Super Bowl Matchups 2015 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 17 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Playoff Scenarios @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 17 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 16 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movement Week 16 @ PredictionMachine.com2014-15 NFL Playoff Odds @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 16 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 15 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movement Week 15 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 15 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 14 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movement Week 14 @ PredictionMachine.comWill the Dallas Cowboys finish 8-8? @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 14 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 13 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 13 @ PredictionMachine.comTrading Luck for Robert Griffin III @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 12 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Line movement Week 12 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 12 @ PredictionMachine.comDo NFL running backs matter? @ PredictionMachine.comSt. Louis Rams in the NFC South @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 11 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Line movement Week 11 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 11 @ PredictionMachine.comCarson Palmer out, Drew Stanton In Cardinals Super Bowl odds @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 10 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Line movement Week 10 @ PredictionMachine.comHow will the Eagles fare with Mark Sanchez starting @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 10 @ PredictionMachine.comElite quarterbacks on bad NFL teams @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 9 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Line movement Week 9 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 9 @ PredictionMachine.comDallas Cowboys without Tony Romo rest of season @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 8 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comDenver Broncos Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 8 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 7 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL line movements prop bets Week 7 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 7 @ PredictionMachine.comATS Results After Tie in NFL Game @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 6 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL line movements prop bets Week 6 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 6 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 5 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.comRoad favorites in the NFL @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 5 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 4 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL line movements prop bets Week 4 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 4 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 3 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL line movements prop bets Week 3 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 3 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 2 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL line movements prop bets Week 2 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 2 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Week 1 GameChangers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL line movements prop bets Week 1 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Trends Week 1 @ PredictionMachine.comOffensive Rookie of the Year @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Prop bets quarterbacks running backs receivers @ PredictionMachine.comHow Valuable is Each NFL QB: 2014 Backup Quarterback Analysis @ PredictionMachine.comodds to be 1st head coach fired 2014 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL pass rush receive leader odds @ PredictionMachine.comFantasy Football Best Draft Position @ PredictionMachine.com2014 PPR fantasy football value picks @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Playoffs odds value bets @ PredictionMachine.com2014 fantasy football breakout players @ PredictionMachine.com2014 Fantasy Football Busts @ PredictionMachine.com2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers @ PredictionMachine.com2013 fantasy football recap @ PredictionMachine.comUpdated 2015 Super Bowl Odds @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Training Camp battles Green Bay Packers @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Training Camp battles Cleveland Browns @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Training Camp battles Tennessee Titans @ PredictionMachine.comEli Manning 70 percent completion percentage @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Training Camp battles Minnesota Vikings @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Training Camp battles Cleveland Browns @ PredictionMachine.comNFL ATS Records 2011 to 2013 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Predictions turnovers equal turnaround @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Predictions Newton not top 5 fantasy QB @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Predictions scoring will soar @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL MVP Odds 070814 @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Predictions Broncos win Super Bowl @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Predictions Chiefs miss playoffs @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Predictions players and teams @ PredictionMachine.com2014 Defensive Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.com2014 Offensive Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comBrandon Flowers released by Chiefs @ PredictionMachine.comSecondary position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comLinebacker position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comDefensive linemen position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comOffensive linemen position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comOffensive Skill position Power Rankings @ PredictionMachine.comNFL season win total performance @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Win Totals @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Games of the Year @ PredictionMachine.comPost NFL Draft prop bets @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Draft Day 1 (05/09/14)2014 NFL Draft Props @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Draft needs for all 32 teams entering the 2014 NFL Draft @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Mock Drafts NFL Draft Machine @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Power Rankings Free Agency @ PredictionMachine.comKirk Cousins to Cleveland Browns Starting Quarterback @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Super Bowl GameChangers Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.comCross Sport Prop Bets Super Bowl 2014 Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos @ PredictionMachine.comPlayer vs Player prop bets Super Bowl XLVIII Peyton Manning Russell Wilson Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.comSuper Bowl simulations Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson Richard Sherman Seahawks Broncos @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Conference Championships GameChangers Denver Broncos New England Patriots San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements for Conference Championship playoffs prop bets Seahawks 49ers Patriots Broncos @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Futures Conference Championship Seahawks 49ers Broncos Patriots @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Divisional Round GameChangers Denver Broncos New England Patriots San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements for Divisional Round playoffs prop bets Seahawks Saints 49ers Colts Patriots Chargers Broncos @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Futures Divisional Round Seahawks Saints Chargers Colts @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Wild Card GameChangers Green Bay Packers San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers New Orleans Saints @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements for Wild Card Weekend prop bets Packers 49ers Eagles Saints Chargers Chiefs @ PredictionMachine.com2014 NFL Playoff Future Bets Seattle Seahawks Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 17 GameChangers Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys San Diego Chargers San Francisco 49ers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements prop bets Packers Cowboys Lions @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 16 GameChangers Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys New England Patriots New Orleans Saints @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements prop bets Chiefs Cowboys Lions @ PredictionMachine.comRedrafting the NFL: Aaron Rodgers, Calvin Johnson, Andrew Luck @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 15 GameChangers Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys New England Patriots New Orleans Saints @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements prop bets Redskins Patriots Browns @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 13 GameChangers Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles @ PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements prop bets Chiefs Cowboys Saints @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 13 GameChangers Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Washington Redskins @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 12 GameChangers Denver Broncos Carolina Panthers Dallas Cowboys @ 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PredictionMachine.comNFL line movements prop bets 49ers Patriots Chiefs @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 7 GameChangers New York Jets Denver Broncos New England Patriots @ PredictionMachine.comNFL and college football line movements prop bets Broncos Eagles Giants @ PredictionMachine.comPeyton Manning vs Andrew Luck Archie Manning vs Oliver Luck Denver Broncos Indianapolis Colts @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 6 GameChangers New York Jets Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.comNFL and college football line movements prop bets Broncos Cowboys Texans @ PredictionMachine.comBench Peyton Manning against the Jacksonville Jaguars Denver Broncos @ PredictionMachine.comMichael Vick or Nick Foles who should start Philadelphia Eagles @ PredictionMachine.comJosh Freeman on the Minnesota Vikings quarterback controversy @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 5 GameChangers Dallas Cowboys Seattle Seahawks Jacksonville Jaguars @ PredictionMachine.comWinless NFL teams vs Alabama plus 1995 Jaguars vs 2013 Jaguars @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 4 GameChangers Giants Texans Lions @ PredictionMachine.comNFL and college football line movements prop bets Vikings Chiefs Buccaneers @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 3 GameChangers Panthers Redskins Lions Packers Bengals @ PredictionMachine.comNFL and college football line movements prop bets Seahawks Patriots Packers Vikings @ PredictionMachine.comTrent Richardson trade Indianapolis Colts Cleveland Browns Andrew Luck @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 2 GameChangers Panthers Bills Chiefs Cowboys Saints @ PredictionMachine.comNFL and college football line movements Manning Bowl 49ers Seahawks Texas A&M Johnny Football @ PredictionMachine.comNFL Week 1 GameChangers 49ers Packers Seahawks Panthers Cowboys Giants @ PredictionMachine.comWeek 1 NFL line movements Jets Saints Falcons Bills Patriots @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Standings: Projected Realistic Results @ PredictionMachine.comNFL MVP odds Passing Rushing Receiving Yards leaders Peyton Manning Aaron Rodgers Colin Kaepernick @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Playoff odds and projections St. Louis Rams New York Jets Miami Dolphins Broncos @ PredictionMachine.comTom Brady Matthew Stafford Michael Vick fantasy football quarterbacks projections @ PredictionMachine.comLarry Fitzgerald Greg Jennings Andre Johnson fantasy football wide receivers projections @ PredictionMachine.comLeSean McCoy Eagles Chris Johnson Titans MJD fantasy football running backs projections @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Training Camp injuries projections Jeremy Maclin Eagles Dennis Pitta Ravens @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL training camp position battles Pittsburgh Steelers Jonathan Dwyer Isaac Redman Le’Veon Bell @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL training camp position battles New England Patriots Julian Edelman Aaron Dobson Josh Boyce @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL training camp position battles St. Louis Rams Daryl Richardson Isaiah Pead Zac Stacy @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL training camp position battles Green Bay Packers Eddie Lacy Jonathan Franklin Alex Green @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL training camp position battles Buffalo Bills quarterback Kevin Kolb EJ Manuel @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL training camp position battles New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez Geno Smith @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Training Camp Schedules rookies veterans Broncos Patriots 49ers @ PredicitonMachine.com2013 NFL Prediction MVP race Peyton Manning Colin Kaepernick Russell Wilson @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Prediction Phillip Rivers Robert Griffin III fantasy football @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Predictions Denver Broncos rushing touchdowns New England Patriots @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Predictions Giants Panthers Bears Dolphins make playoffs @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Predictions Bengals Vikings, Indianapolis Colts, Washington Redskins, Atlanta Falcons miss playoffs @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Predictions sacks and sack rates will skyrocket @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Predictions Baltimore Ravens will not win Super Bowl Joe Flacco Ray Lewis @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Predictions Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl chances @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Predictions Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense better than offense Josh Freeman2013 NFL Predictions St. Louis Rams will win more games than Atlanta Falcons @ PredictionMachine.comUpdated Super Bowl Odds Aaron Hernandez New England Patriots St. Louis Rams Seattle Seahawks @ PredictionMachine.comTim Tebow New England Patriots Prop Bets @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL win totals LVH Patriots Packers Broncos 49ers @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL lines Week 1 through Week 16 Ravens Broncos 49ers Patriots @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL lines Week 13 through Week 16 Ravens Broncos 49ers Patriots @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL lines Week 9 through Week 12 Ravens Broncos 49ers Patriots @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL lines Week 1 through Week 4 Ravens Broncos 49ers Patriots @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL lines Week 1 through Week 4 Ravens Broncos 49ers Patriots @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL favorites dogs pickems Broncos Patriots Seahawks 49ers @ PredictionMachine.com2013 Opening Point Spreads Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens 49ers Packers @ PredictionMachine.com2013 Post NFL Draft Props Tim Tebow Geno Smith Matt Barkley @ PredictionMachine.comNFL free agency grades fantasy impact prop bets jake long @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Mock Draft Analysis from Paul Bessire @ PredictionMachine.com2013 NFL Draft Prop Bets Matt Barkley Geno Smith Manti Te’o @ PredictionMachine.comNFL free agency grades fantasy impact prop bets ed reed @ PredictionMachine.comNFL free agency grades fantasy impact prop bets matt flynn @ PredictionMachine.comNFL free agency grades fantasy impact prop bets carson palmer @ PredictionMachine.comNFL free agency grades fantasy impact prop bets reggie bush @ PredictionMachine.comNFL free agency grades fantasy impact prop bets wes welker @ PredictionMachine.comNFL free agency grades fantasy impact prop bets mike wallace @ PredictionMachine.comPercy Harvin trade Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings @ PredictionMachine.comAlex Smith Trade 49ers Chiefs Trade Prop Bets Future Odds @ PredictionMachine.comSuper Bowl XLVII Recap and Analysis @ PredictionMachine.comConference Championship Weekend 2013 NFL Playoff Recap @ PredictionMachine.comDivisional Weekend 2013 NFL Playoff Recap @ PredictionMachine.comWild Card Weekend 2013 NFL Playoff Recap @ PredictionMachine.comCollege Football Week 8 and NFL Week 7 In Review from Paul Bessire @ PredictionMachine.comCollege Football Week 6 and NFL Week 5 In Review from Paul Bessire @ PredictionMachine.comCollege Football Week 4 and NFL Week 3 In Review from Paul Bessire @ PredictionMachine.comCollege Football Week 2 and NFL Week 1 In Review from Paul Bessire @ PredictionMachine.comFantasy Football Strategy, Draft Tips, Experts 2012 @ PredictionMachinc.comCriticizing Bill Belichick’s NFL Draft @ PredictionMachine.comSuper Bowl XLVI and NFL Playoffs Recap @ PredictionMachine.comNFL and College Basketball Thoughts and Conference Championship Weekend In Review from Paul Bessire @ PredictionMachine.com

http://www.PredictionMachine.com PredictionMachine.com articles available for NFL Content en-us 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. <em>Last Updated: 9/8/2015 at 8:00 PM ET</em> <![CDATA[To read this week’s free pick analysis in the New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys game for 9/13/2015, please <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Register”>sign up</a>.<br /> <br /> For Week 1 in the NFL, there are a total of 13 playable against-the-spread opinions and an additional 11 playable over/under picks, with six of those plays covering the number greater than 57% of the time to be considered a featured, “normal” or better pick.<br /> <br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Individual-Picks”>Picks</a> for every NFL game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management, access to the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Play Analyzer</a> and <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Halftime-Lines-Picks-Odds-Football-Basketball”>Halftime</a> pick analysis can be purchased for the week or season in the <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Shop/”>Shop</a> or by <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Individual-Picks”>individual game</a> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Individual-Picks”>here</a>.<br /> <br /> <div class=”header pickTableHeader”> <div class=”headerContent”> <span class=”pickTableType”>ADDITIONAL GAME INFORMATION</span></div> </div> <a name=”GameInfo”></a> <table class=”standard sortable smallerTable picksTable”> <thead> <tr class=”header”> <th> Home Rot</th> <th> Time (ET)</th> <th> Matchup</th> <th> Boxscore</th> <th> Breakdown</th> <th> Broadcast</th> <th> Analyze</th> <th> Live</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 464</td> <td> 1:00 PM</td> <td> GB @ CHI</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Chicago-Bears-Green-Bay-Packers-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Green-Bay-Packers-Chicago-Bears-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”FOX, DirecTV: 709″ /> FOX, DirecTV: 709</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 466</td> <td> 1:00 PM</td> <td> KC @ HOU</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Houston-Texans-Kansas-City-Chiefs-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Kansas-City-Chiefs-Houston-Texans-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”CBS, DirecTV: 706″ /> CBS, DirecTV: 706</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td> 468</td> <td> 1:00 PM</td> <td> CLE @ NYJ</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-New-York-Jets-Cleveland-Browns-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Cleveland-Browns-New-York-Jets-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”CBS, DirecTV: 707″ /> CBS, DirecTV: 707</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 470</td> <td> 1:00 PM</td> <td> IND @ BUF</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Buffalo-Bills-Indianapolis-Colts-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Indianapolis-Colts-Buffalo-Bills-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”CBS, DirecTV: 705″ /> CBS, DirecTV: 705</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td> 472</td> <td> 1:00 PM</td> <td> MIA @ WAS</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Washington-Redskins-Miami-Dolphins-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Miami-Dolphins-Washington-Redskins-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”CBS, DirecTV: 708″ /> CBS, DirecTV: 708</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 474</td> <td> 1:00 PM</td> <td> CAR @ JAC</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Jacksonville-Jaguars-Carolina-Panthers-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Carolina-Panthers-Jacksonville-Jaguars-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”FOX, DirecTV: 710″ /> FOX, DirecTV: 710</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td> 476</td> <td> 1:00 PM</td> <td> SEA @ STL</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-St-Louis-Rams-Seattle-Seahawks-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Seattle-Seahawks-St-Louis-Rams-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”FOX, DirecTV: 711″ /> FOX, DirecTV: 711</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 478</td> <td> 4:05 PM</td> <td> NO @ ARI</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Arizona-Cardinals-New-Orleans-Saints-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/New-Orleans-Saints-Arizona-Cardinals-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”FOX, DirecTV: 712″ /> FOX, DirecTV: 712</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td> 480</td> <td> 4:05 PM</td> <td> DET @ SD</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-San-Diego-Chargers-Detroit-Lions-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Detroit-Lions-San-Diego-Chargers-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”FOX, DirecTV: 713″ /> FOX, DirecTV: 713</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 482</td> <td> 4:25 PM</td> <td> TEN @ TB</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers-Tennessee-Titans-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Tennessee-Titans-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”CBS, DirecTV: 716″ /> CBS, DirecTV: 716</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td> 484</td> <td> 4:25 PM</td> <td> CIN @ OAK</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Oakland-Raiders-Cincinnati-Bengals-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Cincinnati-Bengals-Oakland-Raiders-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”CBS, DirecTV: 715″ /> CBS, DirecTV: 715</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 486</td> <td> 4:25 PM</td> <td> BAL @ DEN</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Denver-Broncos-Baltimore-Ravens-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Baltimore-Ravens-Denver-Broncos-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”CBS, DirecTV: 714″ /> CBS, DirecTV: 714</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> <tr> <td> 488</td> <td> 8:30 PM</td> <td> NYG @ DAL</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Dallas-Cowboys-New-York-Giants-09-13-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/New-York-Giants-Dallas-Cowboys-NFL-Matchup-09-13-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”NBC” /> NBC</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/0″>Live</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <strong>9/6/2015 Highlight: </strong>Using the ResultsFinder for the week of August 31st – September 6th, one could find that all playable against-the-spread and over/under picks in Week 1 of College Football went <strong>32-24 (57% ATS and O/U)</strong>.<br /> <p> This includes the Lock of the Week in College Football (Ohio -8) easily covering in a 45-28 victory over Idaho and featured “normal” or better over/under plays going 7-4 (64% O/U). All-time the consistently strong College Football Locks of the Week are now <strong>54-24 (69% ATS)</strong>, while normal or better totals are <strong>355-259 (58% O/U)</strong>.<br /> <br /> The NFL starts this week! Since launching in January 2010, this technology is over 60% against-the-spread with NFL Locks of the Week (64-42 ATS) and <strong>55%</strong> against-the-spread (591-487 ATS) picking all NFL games. The Predictalator is <strong>41-14 (75% ATS) </strong>against-the-spread in NFL Playoff games.<br /> <br /> Last season, picking every NFL game, the Predictalator hit 55%+ ATS for the fourth time in five seasons, including a blistering second half of the season in which the machine went 71-44 (<strong>62% ATS</strong>) against-the-spread on all playable picks.<br /> <br /> Check out the <a href=http://www.PredictionMachine.com/shop/buy.aspx>Shop</a> or <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Individual-Picks”>Individual Picks</a> pages now to learn more.</p> ]]> http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Analysis/NFL-Picks-Week1-2015 Tue, 8 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0700

Paul’s Analysis

<![CDATA[The <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/About-Predictalator”>Predictalator</a> has played every 2015 NFL regular season and playoff game 50,000 times before it’s actually played. Based on that analysis, we have projected results from every game for every team. In the free, example table below, week-by-week average results from the Green Bay Packers schedule are displayed. To calculate a team’s projected win total, we sum the chances that each team wins each game (Win%). To view each team’s projected schedule and win-loss record, please subscribe to the <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Shop/”>NFL Full Season Picks</a>. <div id=”team335″ teamselection=”1″> <div class=”header second”> <h2> Green Bay Packers</h2> </div> <div class=”content”> <table class=”standard”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Week</th> <th> Opponent</th> <th> Green Bay Packers Score</th> <th> Opponent Score</th> <th> Win %</th> </tr> <tr> <td> 1</td> <td> @ Bears</td> <td> 31.9</td> <td> 23.5</td> <td> 70.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 2</td> <td> Seahawks</td> <td> 27.1</td> <td> 23.2</td> <td> 59.3</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 3</td> <td> Chiefs</td> <td> 31.7</td> <td> 21.3</td> <td> 74.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 4</td> <td> @ 49ers</td> <td> 31.5</td> <td> 22.5</td> <td> 71.2</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 5</td> <td> Rams</td> <td> 34.5</td> <td> 22.3</td> <td> 77.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 6</td> <td> Chargers</td> <td> 35.0</td> <td> 23.8</td> <td> 75.1</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 7</td> <td> Bye</td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 8</td> <td> @ Broncos</td> <td> 26.0</td> <td> 26.7</td> <td> 48.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 9</td> <td> @ Panthers</td> <td> 28.0</td> <td> 23.8</td> <td> 59.8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 10</td> <td> Lions</td> <td> 32.4</td> <td> 20.7</td> <td> 77.5</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 11</td> <td> @ Vikings</td> <td> 30.2</td> <td> 26.1</td> <td> 59.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 12</td> <td> Bears</td> <td> 34.9</td> <td> 21.8</td> <td> 80.0</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 13</td> <td> @ Lions</td> <td> 29.8</td> <td> 22.8</td> <td> 66.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 14</td> <td> Cowboys</td> <td> 33.6</td> <td> 27.0</td> <td> 64.6</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 15</td> <td> @ Raiders</td> <td> 30.5</td> <td> 22.4</td> <td> 68.8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt”> <td> 16</td> <td> @ Cardinals</td> <td> 33.4</td> <td> 22.5</td> <td> 74.8</td> </tr> <tr> <td> 17</td> <td> Vikings</td> <td> 32.4</td> <td> 24.0</td> <td> 68.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”header”> <th colspan=”2″> </th> <th> Green Bay Packers Pts/Game</th> <th> Opponent Pts/Game</th> <th> Total Wins</th> </tr> <tr class=”noborder”> <td colspan=”2″> </td> <td> 31.4</td> <td> 23.4</td> <td> 11.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> </div> ]]> http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-2015-Game-Results-Picks-Predictions Thu, 30 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

Paul’s Analysis

Play Value Calculator and the Kelly Criterion <![CDATA[<p> <em>Tuesday, September 7 at 11:18 AM ET</em><br /> This will probably serve as the first of many discussions about optimal bankroll management as it relates to sports betting and, in particular, our Play Value Calculator recommendations.</p> <p> I received several great questions through <a href=http://www.PredictionMachine.com/support/default.aspx>Support Contacts</a> from some of our subscribers about our success metrics in units and how to use the Play Value Calculator.</p> <p> We don't mind talking about "units" or actual dollars as we have to have some kind of baseline metric for our success. For instance, for a normal $50 player, our college against-the-spread (ATS) and Over/Under (O/U) picks using our Play Value Calculator recommendations were <strong>+$322</strong> in the first weekend of college football. And just the plays mentioned as part of Paul's Top Picks were <strong>+$166</strong>. However, everything is relative. Everyone has different bankrolls, levels of risk aversion and comfortableness in how many different plays can be in place at one time.</p> <p> To address the last point first, the true answer is all about the value available. A very general rule of thumb that we like to use is to play games above 60%. Sometimes there are several of these at one time and sometimes there may be none. Diversification can definitely be good because we've never seen a guaranteed game, but it only makes sense to play the games that return the most value. And it always makes sense to follow the Play Value Calculator's suggestions relative to wagers on multiple games at one time.</p> <p> With respect to our expectations, in three years of tracking his NFL regular and post-season picks, I have accurately picked 59.7% (429 – 289 – 172) of ALL games against-the-spread, including hitting 78.3% (49-11-2) in the top plays of the week each week during football.</p> <p> That being said, our expectation would be that the game has the likelihood of covering that our pick says. I don't mean that to sound too obvious or facetious. And, for what it's worth, our picks have generally lived up to that and more. That's just the best way to look at our picks. Even if picks with 60%+ confidence have hit at a rate well above that, the next 60%+ play is only expected to be as accurate as it's cover percentage. The play value recommendations with our confidence are essentially our conservative take on the "<a href=”http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/advancedtheory/a/moneymanage.htm”>Kelly Criterion</a>."</p> <p> The Kelly Criterion assumes a bettor knows how accurate he is. But, even if a bettor is normally 60% accurate, it doesn't necessarily mean that that accuracy applies to the next pick.</p> <p> That's where our confidence through the cover percentages comes in. We know exactly how often the pick covers in our simulations.</p> <p> We recommend normal plays of 1-3% of your bankroll. "Normal plays" start at about 57% and everything revolves around that with the Play Value Calculator. "Weak" plays would typically mean less than 1% of a bankroll. When played individually, 2X and 3X plays could be between 2-9% depending on what is a comfortable Normal play for the wagerer.</p> <p> When multiple plays are in place at one time, that changes the equation a little bit because that eats into more of the bankroll at that time. We allow this to be considered in the Play Value Calculator.</p> <p> We say it is a conservative take on the Kelly Criterion because we need to better account for the market and its take on each pick (not an original approach – as most would suggest that the Kelly Criterion is a little more aggressive than "optimal").</p> <p> And, as usual, please be conscious of lines with every picks. Especially early in the season, lines can change significantly and frequently so it is important to be sure that plays are appropriate to the line. This is why we offer the <a href=http://www.PredictionMachine.com/predictalator/utp.aspx>Customizable Predictalator</a> to run games using any line and see our updated picks.</p> <p> I hope that helps and I'm sure we will revisit this topic again. Please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions through a <a href=http://www.PredictionMachine.com/support/default.aspx>Support Contact</a>.</p> ]]> http://www.PredictionMachine.com/PaulBessire/Blog/bankrollmanagement.aspx Tue, 7 Sep 2010 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Packers, Browns and Vikings. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Packers-Bears-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Welcome back NFL, we missed you!<br /> <br /> With every team in action this weekend we take a look at some of the more interesting line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun NFL prop bets including the Packers, Browns and Vikings.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Bears vs. Packers</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Green Bay has won 11 of the last 13 regular-season and playoff matchups against Chicago. The Packers embarrassed their rivals 55-14 in Lambeau last November and are looking for a sixth consecutive road victory over the Bears. The public and most experts are picking the Cheeseheads to win. Nearly 90 percent of wagers are on Aaron Rodgers and company to cover the spread. Green Bay opened as four point road favorites and is now favored by a touchdown in the Windy City.<br /> <br /> Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 1,208 yards and 12 touchdowns in the last four regular-season meetings in Chicago. Since becoming the starter in 2008, the Packers’ quarterback, when facing the Bears, is 12-3 <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-Trends-Week-1″>(80%) against-the-spread</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Odds to be the NFL Passing Leader</strong> <ul> <li> Aaron Rodgers: 4/1</li> </ul> <br /> Rodgers is a two-time MVP, a four-time Pro Bowl selection and a Super Bowl Champion. Despite all of his accomplishments, the head cheese in Green Bay has never won the passing title. Rodgers is the second favorite behind Andrew Luck. If he isn’t the NFL passing leader it won’t be because of <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jordy-Nelson-Injury-Impact”>Jordy’s injury</a>.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Jets vs. Browns</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Which fan base is more depressed – Cleveland, which took Johnny Manziel in the first round last year but is starting 36-year old Josh McCown, or New York, who’s expected starting quarterback, Geno Smith, got his jaw broke by his own teammate? Either way, this one should be a doozy with two replacement level quarterbacks squaring off against above average pass defenses.<br /> <br /> The Jets opened as nominal favorites but have been bet up to the standard home field advantage (3 points). The real line movement is with the total. Oddsmakers posted an over/under of 41 points (the lowest total in Week 1) but money continues to come in on the under. The total is now down to 39.5.<br /> <br /> <strong>Which NFL coach is going to be Fired First?</strong> <ul> <li> Mike Pettine: 11/4</li> <li> Todd Bowles: 25/1</li> </ul> <br /> This is an important game for both coaches who are already <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Which-NFL-Coach-Is-Getting-Fired-First”>on the hot seat</a>. Pettine is the favorite to be the first coach fired and Bowles, the poor guy, has odds to be canned even though he is in his first season at the helm.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>49ers vs. Vikings</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> This game features the largest line movement. When Week 1 odds were posted <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-Week-1-Lines”>back in April</a>, San Francisco opened as a 3.5 point favorite at home. Then there was an exodus of talent from the Bay Area. Per ESPN, players who left the 49ers played 37 percent of the team’s total snaps. Key players include: Justin Smith, Frank Gore, Chris Borland, Patrick Willis, Aldon Smith, Mike Iupati and Michael Crabtree to name a few.<br /> <br /> The Niners’ talent drain coupled with the return of Adrian Peterson and the high expectations for Teddy Bridgewater have turned the odds upside down. The Vikings are now the favorites (-2.5). Minnesota has only been a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-Trends-Week-1″>road favorite twice</a> since 2011.<br /> <br /> <strong>Odds to be the NFL Rushing Leader</strong> <ul> <li> Adrian Peterson: 7/2</li> </ul> <br /> In his career, Peterson has only finished with less than 1,200 rushing yards once and has never posted less than double-digit rushing touchdowns (in years he played more than one game). One of our bold predictions back in July was that AP would be <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>No. 1 fantasy running back</a>. That has changed now as we head into Week 1 but Peterson is still a clear top five back and is projected to finish with the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>third most rushing yards</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Line-movement-week-1-2015 Fri, 11 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Which NFL coach is getting fired first? Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Mike-Pettine-Cleveland-Browns-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview”>Full season analysis</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-Preview-2015″>Power Rankings</a> and <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>fantasy projections</a>, these are a must but no preview would be complete without a look at the coaches on the hot seat.<br /> <br /> More than half the league’s coaches have odds to be fired. Some are rookies like the Jets’ Todd Bowles and others have won Super Bowls (Sean Payton, Tom Coughlin).<br /> <br /> Which NFL coach is getting fired first?<br /> <br /> The oddsmakers think Cleveland’s Mike Pettine (11/4) needs to tread lightly. The Browns are an unstable organization; they have had four different coaches in the last six years. Pettine had a losing record in his first season and in the 2014 Draft he took Johnny Manziel and Justin Gilbert in the first round �“ neither looks like a good pick.<br /> <br /> Close behind Pettine is Jay Gruden (3/1). Washington’s coach is basically asking to be fired. After going 4-12 in his first season, Gruden has publicly feuded with Robert Griffin III, the one-time franchise quarterback of the Redskins, and named Kirk Cousins the starting quarterback for the 2015 season.<br /> <br /> Bill O’Brien likes the f-bomb and <a href=”http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/08/bill-obriens-mom-is-not-happy-with-her-sons-cursing-on-hard-knocks”>his mom isn’t happy</a>. The Texans shot caller would likely drop a few expletives if he were canned this season. O’Brien is 25/1 to be sacked first this season.<br /> <br /> After three consecutive 8-8 seasons fans were calling for Jason Garrett’s head and bookmakers agreed making Garrett the favorite to be fired last year. However, after a trip to the playoffs, the Cowboys rewarded Garrett with a five-year extension. Still, this is a “what have you done for me lately” business and Garrett has 50/1 odds to be dismissed.<br /> <br /> Of course these odds are really just for fun and have little predictive value. Of the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/odds-to-be-1st-head-coach-fired-2014″>12 coaches</a> that had odds to be fired last season, only four were let go and three made the playoffs.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Odds to be Fired First</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Coach</th> <th> Odds</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mike Pettine</td> <td> 11/4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jay Gruden</td> <td> 3/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ken Whisenhunt</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Joe Philbin</td> <td> 12/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Gus Bradley</td> <td> 16/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jim Tomsula</td> <td> 16/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sean Payton</td> <td> 16/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tom Coughlin</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ron Rivera</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Todd Bowles</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jeff Fisher</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marvin Lewis</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bill O’Brien</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Lovie Smith</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jack Del Rio</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jim Caldwell</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chip Kelly</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rex Ryan</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jason Garrett</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Which-NFL-Coach-Is-Getting-Fired-First Wed, 9 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em><span style=”font-size:10px;”><span style=”font-family:verdana,geneva,sans-serif;”><strong>powered by</strong></span></span></em> <span><span><span style=”font-size:14px;”><em><strong><span style=”font-family:verdana,geneva,sans-serif;”><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><span style=”color:#ff6600;”>Trend Machine</span></a></span></strong></em></span></span></span><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/Week_1_Trend.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 429px;” /><br /> <br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Week 1 �“ Situational Trends</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Is there a Super Bowl hangover? In the last ten years, the runner-up in the Super Bowl has gone 2-7-1 against-the-spread in Week 1.<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Seahawks (-3.5) @ Rams.</li> </ul> <br /> Blindly betting home dogs used to be profitable but since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs are 541-544-27 (49%) against-the-spread.<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+3) vs. Eagles, Bills (+2.5) vs. Colts, Bears (+5) vs. Packers, Jaguars (+3) vs. Panthers, Raiders (+3) vs. Bengals, 49ers (+2.5) vs. Vikings, Rams (+3.5) vs. Seahawks and Redskins (+3.5) vs. Dolphins.</li> </ul> <br /> Last year, in games with totals of great than 50 points, the under went 46-36 (57%).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons vs. Eagles (54.5) and Cowboys vs. Giants (51).</li> </ul> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Jameis-Winston-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> NFL Trends �“ Week 1</strong></span></span><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <div> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> +3 vs. PHI</td> <td> Matt Ryan as a home dog is 9-5-1 (64% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td class=”rank”> -2.5 vs. NO</td> <td> When healthy, Carson Palmer has led Arizona to a 16-5-1 (76%) record against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td class=”rank”> +5 @ DEN</td> <td> Against the Peyton Manning led Broncos, road dogs of a touchdown or less are 3-7-2 against-the-spread in Mile High.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td class=”rank”> +2.5 vs. IND</td> <td> Rex Ryan, the Bills new Head Coach, is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> -3 @ JAX</td> <td> Cam Newton has won back-to-back NFC South titles but he is just 3-5-1 ATS as a road favorite in his career.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> +5 vs. GB</td> <td> All-time, the Bears as home dogs to the Packers are 4-13 straight-up and 6-11 (35%) against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> -3 @ OAK</td> <td> Cincinnati has failed to cover in seven straight games as road favorites.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> +3 @ NYJ</td> <td> In the last two years, in games started, Josh McCown is 3-13 straight-up and 6-10 against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td class=”rank”> -5.5 vs. NYG</td> <td> Tony Romo is 7-3 against-the-spread in season openers.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -5 vs. BAL</td> <td> Demaryius Thomas has 100 yards or a TD in 26 of Denver’s last 30 games. The Broncos are 16-13-1 (55% ATS) in those games.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> +3 @ SD</td> <td> Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started every game, Detroit is 4-14 straight-up and 7-11 (39%) against-the-spread as road dogs.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -5 @ CHI</td> <td> Since becoming the starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers when facing the Bears is 12-3 (80%) against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> HOU</td> <td> -2 vs. KC</td> <td> Since 2011, when Houston drafted JJ Watt, the Texans are 23-18-1 (56%) against-the-spread as a favorite.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> -2.5 @ BUF</td> <td> Andrew Luck as a road favorite is 8-3-1 (73%) against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> JAX</td> <td> +3 vs. CAR</td> <td> In the last five years, the Jaguars have been home dogs in 31 out of 40 games. Jacksonville is 9-22 (29%) ATS in those games.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> +2 @ HOU</td> <td> In two seasons in Kansas City, Alex Smith is 13-4 (77%) against-the-spread away from the friendly confines of Arrowhead.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> -3.5 @ WAS</td> <td> Ryan Tannehill as a road favorite is 2-5 against-the-spread and has a losing record straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIN</td> <td> -2.5 @ SF</td> <td> The Viking have only been a road favorite twice since 2011, Minnesota is 0-2 against-the-spread in those games.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> -3.5 vs. PIT</td> <td> With Tom Brady, New England is 135-97-6 (58%) ATS. Without him, all-time, the Patriots are 192-203-10 (49%) ATS.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> +2.5 @ AZ</td> <td> In the last two years, once Carson Palmer came to the desert, road dogs in Arizona are 1-8-1 against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td class=”rank”> +5.5 @ DAL</td> <td> All-time, the Giants as road dogs in Dallas are 8-19 straight-up and 11-16 against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYJ</td> <td> -3 vs. CLE</td> <td> Ryan Fitzpatrick almost had as many wins against-the-spread (6 in 12 starts) as the Jets (7 wins ATS) did in a full season.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +3 vs. CIN</td> <td> Jack Del Rio, the Raiders new head coach, is 67-73-2 against-the-spread all-time.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> -3 @ ATL</td> <td> All-time, Sam Bradford is 24-24-1 ATS. In 49 career games he has only been a road favorite once and did not cover.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> +3.5 @ NE</td> <td> In his career, Ben Roethlisberger is 8-3 straight-up but 5-6 against-the-spread in Week 1.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SD</td> <td> -3 vs. DET</td> <td> In Philip Rivers career, the Chargers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 32-26-1 (55%) against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> -3.5 @ STL</td> <td> Russell Wilson as a favorite of a field goal or more on the road is 10-4 straight-up and 7-6-1 against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td class=”rank”> +2.5 vs. MIN</td> <td> In Colin Kaepernick’s career, the 49ers have never been a home underdog. Until now.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td class=”rank”> +3.5 vs. SEA</td> <td> All-time in Week 1, the Rams are 12-24-1 (33%) against-the-spread and are just 2-8 ATS in the last ten seasons.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> -3 vs. TEN</td> <td> The last ten quarterbacks taken with the first overall pick are 1-8-1 against-the-spread in their first career start.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +3 @ TB</td> <td> The Titans went 2-14 straight-up last year and 4-12 against-the-spread. Of course that was without the No. 2 pick Marcus Mariota.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> WAS</td> <td class=”rank”> +3.5 vs. MIA</td> <td> As a starter, Kirk Cousins is 2-7 straight-up but 5-4 against-the-spread</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br /> <em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine” target=”_blank”><img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/Powered_by_TrendMachine.png” style=”width: 160px; height: 19px;” /></a></em>]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-NFL-Trends-Week-1 Wed, 2 Sep 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>Odds for each NFL team to make the playoffs in 2015. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Cam-Newton-Panthers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> We are weeks away from the start of the NFL season and every team still aspires to reach the Super Bowl. As such, bookmakers have set odds for each squad to make the 2015 NFL playoffs. Below, utilizing our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview”>NFL Preview</a>, we look for value in each team reaching the postseason.<br /> <br /> To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the playoffs and compare that to our projected odds to reach the postseason. For example, Washington is listed at +700 to make the playoffs, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Redskins they would need to reach the postseason 12.5% (which is 700/(100+700)) of the time. We project Washington to reach the playoffs 22.0% of the time, meaning there is value in placing a bet at +700 odds.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Carolina Panthers</strong></span></span><br /> Odds: +145<br /> Implied Chance: 40.8%<br /> Projected Chance: 64.0%<br /> <br /> The two time defending NFC South champions can’t get any respect. New Orleans, a team with the worst defense in the NFL, and Atlanta, back-to-back losing seasons, have better odds to make the playoffs than the Panthers. Carolina is a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-Preview-2015″>top ten team</a> with the second best defense in the league. Cam Newton and the Panthers take the NFC South for a third consecutive season.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Minnesota Vikings</strong></span></span><br /> Odds: +225<br /> Implied Chance: 30.8%<br /> Projected Chance: 51.2%<br /> <br /> We have been on the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/New-Playoff-Teams-In-2015″>Vikings’ bandwagon</a> for a while. Minnesota has a franchise quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, one of the best running backs of all-time and a defense that ranks in the top ten. The Vikings are the projected 5th seed in the NFC in our most likely playoff.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Miami Dolphins</strong></span></span><br /> Odds: +120<br /> Implied Chance: 45.5%<br /> Projected Chance: 52.7%<br /> <br /> It has been six long years since the Dolphins were in the playoffs. That streak ends this season. Miami is an incredibly balanced team with units that rank in the top ten both offensively and defensively. The cherry on top �“ the quarterbacks the Dolphins face to start the season are laughable. In the team’s first six games the opposing signal caller will be RG3, Blake Bortles, one of the Bills quarterbacks, Ryan Fitzpatrick, rookie Marcus Mariota and Brian Hoyer. There is nothing else that needs to be said.<br /> <br /> Additional teams with value: Washington Redskins, Oakland Raiders, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>2015 NFL Playoff Odds</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Odds</th> <th> Odds Needed</th> <th> Projected Odds</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> +145</td> <td> 40.8%</td> <td> 18.4%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> +135</td> <td> 42.6%</td> <td> 32.0%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> -130</td> <td> 56.5%</td> <td> 43.1%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> +175</td> <td> 36.4%</td> <td> 28.7%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> +145</td> <td> 40.8%</td> <td> 64.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> +500</td> <td> 16.7%</td> <td> 11.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> EVEN</td> <td> 50.0%</td> <td> 42.4%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> +500</td> <td> 16.7%</td> <td> 20.9%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> -175</td> <td> 63.6%</td> <td> 43.4%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> -300</td> <td> 75.0%</td> <td> 70.8%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> +155</td> <td> 39.2%</td> <td> 22.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> -550</td> <td> 84.6%</td> <td> 86.8%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> +150</td> <td> 40.0%</td> <td> 32.3%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> -600</td> <td> 85.7%</td> <td> 85.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> +800</td> <td> 11.1%</td> <td> 2.3%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> +120</td> <td> 45.5%</td> <td> 35.7%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> +120</td> <td> 45.5%</td> <td> 52.7%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> +225</td> <td> 30.8%</td> <td> 51.2%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> Off The Board</td> <td> -</td> <td> 71.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> +130</td> <td> 43.5%</td> <td> 24.9%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> +175</td> <td> 36.4%</td> <td> 31.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> +350</td> <td> 22.2%</td> <td> 11.5%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> +900</td> <td> 10.0%</td> <td> 16.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> -150</td> <td> 60.0%</td> <td> 57.5%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> -130</td> <td> 56.5%</td> <td> 42.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> +160</td> <td> 38.5%</td> <td> 27.5%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> +400</td> <td> 20.0%</td> <td> 13.1%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> -800</td> <td> 88.9%</td> <td> 83.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> +250</td> <td> 28.6%</td> <td> 26.1%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> +500</td> <td> 16.7%</td> <td> 11.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> +1000</td> <td> 9.1%</td> <td> 15.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> +700</td> <td> 12.5%</td> <td> 22.0%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-NFL-Playoff-Value-Odds Thu, 27 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Odds to lead the NFL in passing, rushing and receiving yards. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Andrew-Luck-Indianapolis-Colts-NFL.png” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Which players will lead the league in passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards?<br /> <br /> Want to wager on it? Of course you do.<br /> <br /> Before you walk to the betting counter, review our player projections including the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>Top 350 Fantasy Rankings</a> and read our value picks below.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Passing Leader</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <strong>Favorite: Andrew Luck �“ 7/2</strong><br /> Projected Stats: 4,804.2 passing yards, 38.8 touchdowns<br /> <br /> Luck is the favorite to win the passing title after finishing third in passing yards last season (4,761 passing yards). The Colts young star posted career highs in attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns a year ago. We project Indy’s quarterback to finish with the most passing yards in 2015.<br /> <br /> <strong>Value Pick: Eli Manning �“ 12/1</strong><br /> Projected Stats: 4,532.7 passing yards, 33.5 touchdowns<br /> <br /> Luck has the best odds to lead the league in passing but Peyton’s little brother has value. Eli is one of three quarterbacks (Luck and Ben Roethlisberger are the others) projected to throw for over 4,500 yards. Eli also has arguably the best receiver (Odell Beckham Jr.) in football, yet has the seventh best odds to be the passing leader.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Odds</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andrew Luck</td> <td> 7/2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Aaron Rodgers</td> <td> 4/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Peyton Manning</td> <td> 7/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ben Roethlisberger</td> <td> 7/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Drew Brees</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matt Ryan</td> <td> 10/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eli Manning</td> <td> 12/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matthew Stafford</td> <td> 12/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tom Brady</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Joe Flacco</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tony Romo</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Philip Rivers</td> <td> 28/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ryan Tannehill</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sam Bradford</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carson Palmer</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Teddy Bridgewater</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jay Cutler</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Nick Foles</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marcus Mariota</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cam Newton</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Russell Wilson</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jameis Winston</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Rushing Leader</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Eddie-Lacy-Green-Bay-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <strong>Favorite: Adrian Peterson – 7/2</strong><br /> Projected Stats: 1,344.0 rushing yards, 13.8 rushing touchdowns<br /> <br /> Despite only playing one game last year and dealing with off-field issues, Adrian Peterson is the favorite to lead the league in rushing. A case could be made for the Vikings’ running back to be the first pick in fantasy but Peterson won’t be the rushing leader. Remember, this is a back that has only played in all 16 games in a season once in the last five years and in that same time frame has finished in the top five in rushing just twice.<br /> <br /> <strong>Value Pick: Eddie Lacy �“ 9/1</strong><br /> Projected Stats: 1,507.8 rushing yards, 12.0 rushing touchdowns<br /> <br /> No one expects Green Bay to be a run-first team while Aaron Rodgers is under center and perhaps that is why Lacy is undervalued. The Packers’ back is projected to lead the league in rushing and is the only running back projected over 1,500 yards.<br /> <br /> Additional Value Play: Cincy’s Jeremy Hill has the second highest projected rushing total (1,442.7 yards) in the NFL but has the seventh best odds to win the rushing title behind Eddie Lacy at 11/1.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Odds</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Adrian Peterson</td> <td> 7/2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jamaal Charles</td> <td> 8/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marshawn Lynch</td> <td> 8/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeMarco Murray</td> <td> 8/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> LeSean McCoy</td> <td> 17/2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eddie Lacy</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jeremy Hill</td> <td> 11/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Le’Veon Bell</td> <td> 14/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> C.J. Anderson</td> <td> 16/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Joseph Randle</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Alfred Morris</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Justin Forsett</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matt Forte</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Melvin Gordon</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Latavius Murray</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carlos Hyde</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Frank Gore</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Todd Gurley</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mark Ingram</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Doug Martin</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Lamar Miller</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> T.J. Yeldon</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jonathan Stewart</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Joique Bell</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andre Ellington</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chris Ivory</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rashad Jennings</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Receiving Leader</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Atlanta-Falcons-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <strong>Favorites: Antonio Brown �“ 11/2</strong><br /> Projected Stats: 1,466.5 receiving yards, 14.6 touchdowns<br /> <br /> Big Ben’s favorite target led the league in receiving yards last year and is the favorite to repeat. Roethlisberger threw for a career-high 4,952 yards last season and Brown was his main target leading the league in receptions (129) on his way to 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns. Brown is No. 1 in our fantasy receiver rankings but he isn’t projected to have the most yards.<br /> <br /> <strong>Value Pick: Julio Jones �“ 13/2</strong><br /> Projected Stats: 1,549.3 receiving yards, 7.3 touchdowns<br /> <br /> Atlanta’s wideout only had six touchdowns in 2014 but he finished in the top three in targets, receptions and yards even though he missed a game due to injury. Jones <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-breakout-stars”>isn’t being drafted like a stud</a>, not only will he lead the league in receiving yards but he also has a chance to be the No. 1 receiver in fantasy.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Odds</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Antonio Brown</td> <td> 11/2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Julio Jones</td> <td> 13/2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Odell Beckham</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dez Bryant</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Calvin Johnson</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Demaryius Thomas</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> T.Y. Hilton</td> <td> 12/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> A.J. Green</td> <td> 16/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Alshon Jeffery</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeAndre Hopkins</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andre Johnson</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Randall Cobb</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mike Evans</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Emmanuel Sanders</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brandin Cooks</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Amari Cooper</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rob Gronkowski</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeSean Jackson</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jordan Matthews</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Larry Fitzgerald</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jimmy Graham</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jarvis Landry</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Golden Tate</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Vincent Jackson</td> <td> 75/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brandon Marshall</td> <td> 75/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sammy Watkins</td> <td> 75/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Keenan Allen</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Anquan Boldin</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marques Colston</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Victor Cruz</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Julian Edelman</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jeremy Maclin</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steve Smith</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Torrey Smith</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Roddy White</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Odds-To-Be-2015-Passing-Rushing-Receiving-Yards-Leader Tue, 25 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Average Draft Position �“ Which players are on the rise?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/John-Brown-Arizona-Cardinals-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> We are two weeks into the preseason and at the height of fantasy drafts. Performance and injuries have caused players average draft positions to rise and fall.<br /> <br /> As you prepare for your fantasy draft, which players are no longer sleepers and what players are now undervalued?<br /> <br /> <strong>John Brown (ADP increased from 130th to 109th)</strong><br /> <br /> Brown is one of our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-sleepers”>fantasy sleepers</a> �“ a player not being drafted as a starter but should be. Other owners are wising up to Brown’s value, but the Cardinals receiver is still going in the 12th round or later in most drafts.<br /> <br /> <strong>Devin Funchess (ADP increased from 239th to 152nd)</strong><br /> <br /> The second-round pick has seen his fantasy stock rise following Kelvin Benjamin’s ACL tear last week. Funchess is a big target; we project the rookie to catch 55.2 passes for 674.3 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. His current ADP is in line with our projections.<br /> <br /> <strong>Randall Cobb and Davante Adams</strong><br /> <br /> Jordy Nelson is expected to miss the season with an ACL injury. It has been less than 24 hours since Nelson’s injury but Cobb and Adams’ average draft position are beginning to move. For the full analysis on the impact of Jordy Nelson’s injury including updated fantasy projections �“ <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jordy-Nelson-Injury-Impact”>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Eddie Royal (ADP increased from 273rd to 162nd)</strong><br /> <br /> Royal’s bandwagon is starting to get full and even with a big jump in ADP there is still value to be had drafting Chicago’s new receiver. Kevin White’s injury makes Royal a top 50 receiver and even more valuable in point-per-reception leagues.<br /> <br /> <strong>Kevin White (ADP decreased from 80th to 148th)</strong><br /> <br /> Speaking of White. The No. 7 overall pick in the 2015 draft will begin the season on the physically unable to perform list after undergoing surgery to repair a stress fracture in his left shin. White will miss a minimum of six games but likely the entire season, he should only be drafted in keeper leagues.<br /> <br /> <strong>Lance Dunbar (ADP decreased from 234th to 258th)</strong><br /> <br /> The Cowboys third string running back is not on fantasy owner’s radars and his average draft position continues to slide. That is a mistake. Darren McFadden is oft-injured and isn’t a threat for serious touches. Joseph Randle is going to be the starter but there will be a nice role for Dunbar. We project the lightly used back to have nearly a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>1,000 combined yards and 6.4 touchdowns</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Robert Griffin III (ADP decreased from 181st to 214th)</strong><br /> <br /> A week ago RG3 said he was the <a href=”http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/08/robert-griffin-iii-washington-redskins-best-quarterback-in-the-nfl”>best quarterback in the league</a>. A few days later Washington’s quarterback left a preseason game with a <a href=”http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000513808/article/rgiii-suffers-concussion-shoulder-stinger-vs-lions”>concussion and a shoulder stringer</a>. Griffin’s 2013 rookie season seems like a long time ago and the former second overall pick remains undraftable in our projections.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Average Draft Position Change</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Position</th> <th> Team</th> <th> ADP 8.10.15</th> <th> ADP 8.24.15</th> <th> Difference</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Devin Funchess</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 239</td> <td> 152</td> <td> 87</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eddie Royal</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 237</td> <td> 162</td> <td> 75</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Malcom Floyd</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 226</td> <td> 196</td> <td> 30</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jonas Gray</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 170</td> <td> 141</td> <td> 29</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kenny Stills</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 195</td> <td> 167</td> <td> 28</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Terrance West</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 212</td> <td> 187</td> <td> 25</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steve Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 214</td> <td> 191</td> <td> 23</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Danny Woodhead</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 169</td> <td> 147</td> <td> 22</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kyle Rudolph</td> <td> TE</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 180</td> <td> 158</td> <td> 22</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> John Brown</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 130</td> <td> 109</td> <td> 21</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> David Cobb</td> <td> RB</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 156</td> <td> 135</td> <td> 21</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ameer Abdullah</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 89</td> <td> 71</td> <td> 18</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Austin Seferian-Jenkins</td> <td> TE</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 213</td> <td> 195</td> <td> 18</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Michael Crabtree</td> <td> WR</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 173</td> <td> 157</td> <td> 16</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mason Crosby</td> <td> K4</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 146</td> <td> 130</td> <td> 16</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sam Bradford</td> <td> QB</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 143</td> <td> 128</td> <td> 15</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Alfred Blue</td> <td> RB</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 113</td> <td> 98</td> <td> 15</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Phillip Dorsett</td> <td> WR</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 231</td> <td> 216</td> <td> 15</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Doug Martin</td> <td> RB</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 98</td> <td> 84</td> <td> 14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Justin Tucker</td> <td> K5</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 158</td> <td> 144</td> <td> 14</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pierre Garcon</td> <td> WR</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 131</td> <td> 118</td> <td> 13</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Connor Barth</td> <td> K7</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 172</td> <td> 159</td> <td> 13</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Christopher Ivory</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 88</td> <td> 77</td> <td> 11</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jarvis Landry</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 74</td> <td> 63</td> <td> 11</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tyler Eifert</td> <td> TE</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 186</td> <td> 175</td> <td> 11</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> DS</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 161</td> <td> 150</td> <td> 11</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Allen Robinson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 95</td> <td> 85</td> <td> 10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Davante Adams</td> <td> WR</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 135</td> <td> 125</td> <td> 10</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Terrance Williams</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 148</td> <td> 138</td> <td> 10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Larry Fitzgerald</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 105</td> <td> 96</td> <td> 9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Lorenzo Taliaferro</td> <td> RB</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 207</td> <td> 198</td> <td> 9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steve Smith</td> <td> WR</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 99</td> <td> 91</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Philip Rivers</td> <td> QB</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 103</td> <td> 95</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Charles Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 107</td> <td> 99</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kendall Wright</td> <td> WR</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 147</td> <td> 139</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Darren Sproles</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 140</td> <td> 132</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steven Hauschka</td> <td> K2</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 144</td> <td> 136</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dan Bailey</td> <td> K6</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 142</td> <td> 134</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Julian Edelman</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 50</td> <td> 43</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Martavis Bryant</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 72</td> <td> 65</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eric Decker</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 115</td> <td> 108</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Anquan Boldin</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 120</td> <td> 113</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Victor Cruz</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 96</td> <td> 89</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> DS</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 101</td> <td> 94</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Lamar Miller</td> <td> RB</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 36</td> <td> 30</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Amari Cooper</td> <td> WR</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 52</td> <td> 46</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ben Roethlisberger</td> <td> QB</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 48</td> <td> 42</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jeremy Maclin</td> <td> WR</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 67</td> <td> 61</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Doug Baldwin</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 184</td> <td> 178</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eric Ebron</td> <td> TE</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 194</td> <td> 188</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Nick Novak</td> <td> K1</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 245</td> <td> 239</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brandin Cooks</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 40</td> <td> 35</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andre Ellington</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 49</td> <td> 44</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brandon Marshall</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 63</td> <td> 58</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Golden Tate</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 57</td> <td> 52</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Drew Brees</td> <td> QB</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 42</td> <td> 37</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Vincent Jackson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 75</td> <td> 70</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Martellus Bennett</td> <td> TE</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 65</td> <td> 60</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mike Wallace</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 85</td> <td> 80</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Nelson Agholor</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 91</td> <td> 86</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Torrey Smith</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 102</td> <td> 97</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Delanie Walker</td> <td> TE</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 127</td> <td> 122</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dwayne Bowe</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 238</td> <td> 233</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matt Bryant</td> <td> K9</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 187</td> <td> 182</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andrew Luck</td> <td> QB</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Greg Olsen</td> <td> TE</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 51</td> <td> 47</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Travis Kelce</td> <td> TE</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 54</td> <td> 50</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tony Romo</td> <td> QB</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 61</td> <td> 57</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jordan Cameron</td> <td> TE</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 94</td> <td> 90</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marques Colston</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 118</td> <td> 114</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carson Palmer</td> <td> QB</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 149</td> <td> 145</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jerick McKinnon</td> <td> RB</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 233</td> <td> 229</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> DS</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 114</td> <td> 110</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> DS</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 227</td> <td> 223</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Frank Gore</td> <td> RB</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 34</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jordan Matthews</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 41</td> <td> 38</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Latavius Murray</td> <td> RB</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 43</td> <td> 40</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andre Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 44</td> <td> 41</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matt Ryan</td> <td> QB</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 59</td> <td> 56</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rashad Jennings</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 69</td> <td> 66</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eli Manning</td> <td> QB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 86</td> <td> 83</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jason Witten</td> <td> TE</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 81</td> <td> 78</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Shane Vereen</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 106</td> <td> 103</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Roy Helu</td> <td> RB</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 215</td> <td> 212</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cordarrelle Patterson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 203</td> <td> 200</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Adam Vinatieri</td> <td> K3</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 109</td> <td> 106</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rob Gronkowski</td> <td> TE</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 15</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeMarco Murray</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> T.Y. Hilton</td> <td> WR</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mark Ingram</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 30</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jimmy Graham</td> <td> TE</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Peyton Manning</td> <td> QB</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 29</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sammy Watkins</td> <td> WR</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 53</td> <td> 51</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tom Brady</td> <td> QB</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 71</td> <td> 69</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Heath Miller</td> <td> TE</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 176</td> <td> 174</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cody Latimer</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 162</td> <td> 160</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ladarius Green</td> <td> TE</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 230</td> <td> 228</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cody Parkey</td> <td> K8</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 174</td> <td> 172</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Le’Veon Bell</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 4</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jamaal Charles</td> <td> RB</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Demaryius Thomas</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Julio Jones</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 17</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jeremy Hill</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 17</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Calvin Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 19</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> A.J. Green</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Randall Cobb</td> <td> WR</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Justin Forsett</td> <td> RB</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Aaron Rodgers</td> <td> QB</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeAndre Hopkins</td> <td> WR</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 37</td> <td> 36</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Joseph Randle</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 55</td> <td> 54</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Keenan Allen</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 56</td> <td> 55</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> T.J. Yeldon</td> <td> RB</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 60</td> <td> 59</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Giovani Bernard</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 73</td> <td> 72</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matthew Stafford</td> <td> QB</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 76</td> <td> 75</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Teddy Bridgewater</td> <td> QB</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 117</td> <td> 116</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> James Starks</td> <td> RB</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 235</td> <td> 234</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> DS</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 152</td> <td> 151</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Adrian Peterson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marshawn Lynch</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 5</td> <td> 5</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Antonio Brown</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dez Bryant</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matt Forte</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Alshon Jeffery</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mike Evans</td> <td> WR</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 26</td> <td> 26</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Roddy White</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 82</td> <td> 82</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Isaiah Crowell</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 87</td> <td> 87</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Devonta Freeman</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 112</td> <td> 112</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ryan Mathews</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 104</td> <td> 104</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tre Mason</td> <td> RB</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 100</td> <td> 100</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bishop Sankey</td> <td> RB</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 123</td> <td> 123</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> DS</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 62</td> <td> 62</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Knile Davis</td> <td> RB</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 154</td> <td> 154</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Markus Wheaton</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 185</td> <td> 185</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kenny Britt</td> <td> WR</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 274</td> <td> 274</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Blake Bortles</td> <td> QB</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 218</td> <td> 218</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brandon Coleman</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 227</td> <td> 227</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Allen Hurns</td> <td> WR</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 322</td> <td> 322</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Nick Foles</td> <td> QB</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 180</td> <td> 180</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cameron Artis-Payne</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 219</td> <td> 219</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Odell Beckham Jr.</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 15</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Alfred Morris</td> <td> RB</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 32</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Emmanuel Sanders</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 29</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Melvin Gordon</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 33</td> <td> 34</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carlos Hyde</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 38</td> <td> 39</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Russell Wilson</td> <td> QB</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 32</td> <td> 33</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brian Quick</td> <td> WR</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 192</td> <td> 193</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jay Cutler</td> <td> QB</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 145</td> <td> 146</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Devante Parker</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 155</td> <td> 156</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Larry Donnell</td> <td> TE</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 220</td> <td> 221</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> DS</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 78</td> <td> 79</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> DS</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 139</td> <td> 140</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eddie Lacy</td> <td> RB</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 4</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> LeGarrette Blount</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 66</td> <td> 68</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Reggie Bush</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 122</td> <td> 124</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Vernon Davis</td> <td> TE</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 159</td> <td> 161</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> DS</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 79</td> <td> 81</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> C.J. Anderson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 12</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jonathan Stewart</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 45</td> <td> 48</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeSean Jackson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 46</td> <td> 49</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Julius Thomas</td> <td> TE</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 70</td> <td> 73</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Colin Kaepernick</td> <td> QB</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 124</td> <td> 127</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dwayne Allen</td> <td> TE</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 108</td> <td> 111</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andre Williams</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 150</td> <td> 153</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Alex Smith</td> <td> QB</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 160</td> <td> 163</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Theo Riddick</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 240</td> <td> 243</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Stephen Gostkowski</td> <td> K1</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 90</td> <td> 93</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeAngelo Williams</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 125</td> <td> 129</td> <td> -4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andrew Hawkins</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 252</td> <td> 256</td> <td> -4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> DS</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 166</td> <td> 170</td> <td> -4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Joe Flacco</td> <td> QB</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 121</td> <td> 126</td> <td> -5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Owen Daniels</td> <td> TE</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 110</td> <td> 115</td> <td> -5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andy Dalton</td> <td> QB</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 164</td> <td> 169</td> <td> -5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Antonio Gates</td> <td> TE</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 116</td> <td> 121</td> <td> -5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Todd Gurley</td> <td> RB</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 47</td> <td> 53</td> <td> -6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> C.J. Spiller</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 68</td> <td> 74</td> <td> -6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dorial Green-Beckham</td> <td> WR</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 177</td> <td> 184</td> <td> -7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ryan Tannehill</td> <td> QB</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 84</td> <td> 92</td> <td> -8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brandon LaFell</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 93</td> <td> 101</td> <td> -8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Zach Ertz</td> <td> TE</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 97</td> <td> 105</td> <td> -8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Breshad Perriman</td> <td> WR</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 111</td> <td> 119</td> <td> -8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Josh Hill</td> <td> TE</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 163</td> <td> 171</td> <td> -8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Charles Clay</td> <td> TE</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 168</td> <td> 176</td> <td> -8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> LeSean McCoy</td> <td> RB</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 19</td> <td> -9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Joique Bell</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 58</td> <td> 67</td> <td> -9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Percy Harvin</td> <td> WR</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 133</td> <td> 142</td> <td> -9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tevin Coleman</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 77</td> <td> 88</td> <td> -11</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Charles Sims</td> <td> RB</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 126</td> <td> 137</td> <td> -11</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Coby Fleener</td> <td> TE</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 132</td> <td> 143</td> <td> -11</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jay Ajayi</td> <td> RB</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 179</td> <td> 190</td> <td> -11</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cam Newton</td> <td> QB</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 64</td> <td> 76</td> <td> -12</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Duke Johnson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 137</td> <td> 149</td> <td> -12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denard Robinson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 182</td> <td> 194</td> <td> -12</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jaelen Strong</td> <td> WR</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 193</td> <td> 205</td> <td> -12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> David Johnson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 151</td> <td> 164</td> <td> -13</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Derek Carr</td> <td> QB</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 167</td> <td> 181</td> <td> -14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Donte Moncrief</td> <td> WR</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 190</td> <td> 204</td> <td> -14</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Michael Floyd</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 92</td> <td> 107</td> <td> -15</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marcus Mariota</td> <td> QB</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 153</td> <td> 168</td> <td> -15</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Greg Jennings</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 250</td> <td> 265</td> <td> -15</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chris Polk</td> <td> RB</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 225</td> <td> 241</td> <td> -16</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Matt Jones</td> <td> RB</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 222</td> <td> 238</td> <td> -16</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marvin Jones</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 189</td> <td> 207</td> <td> -18</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Daniel Herron</td> <td> RB</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 228</td> <td> 246</td> <td> -18</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rueben Randle</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 221</td> <td> 240</td> <td> -19</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Darren McFadden</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 83</td> <td> 102</td> <td> -19</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Montee Ball</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 136</td> <td> 155</td> <td> -19</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Stevan Ridley</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 178</td> <td> 199</td> <td> -21</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Javorius Allen</td> <td> RB</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 243</td> <td> 266</td> <td> -23</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Lance Dunbar</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 234</td> <td> 258</td> <td> -24</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Arian Foster</td> <td> RB</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 39</td> <td> 64</td> <td> -25</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jordy Nelson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 45</td> <td> -25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jameis Winston</td> <td> QB</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 134</td> <td> 166</td> <td> -32</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> James White</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 232</td> <td> 264</td> <td> -32</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Robert Griffin III</td> <td> QB</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 181</td> <td> 214</td> <td> -33</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Fred Jackson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 138</td> <td> 179</td> <td> -41</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jordan Reed</td> <td> TE</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 205</td> <td> 250</td> <td> -45</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kevin White</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 80</td> <td> 148</td> <td> -68</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Average-Draft-Position-Update-082415 Mon, 24 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[Analyzing the impact of Jordy Nelson’s injury.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Jordy-nelson-Injury-Impact-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> In Sunday’s preseason game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers’ receiver Jordy Nelson suffered a non-contact injury. The NFL Network reported that Nelson was diagnosed with a torn ACL.<br /> <br /> The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook did not wait for confirmation from the Packers on the severity of Nelson’s injury (an MRI is scheduled for Monday). The oddsmakers lowered Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds from 9/2 (co-favorite) to 6/1 to win the title.<br /> <br /> Assuming Nelson is lost for the season, what impact does his absence have on the team and for fantasy owners?<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Packers Win the Super Bowl</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Nelson’s injury won’t ruin the Packers season. That’s not to say the team won’t miss the Pro Bowl receiver. Nelson led the team in receptions last year and set a franchise record with 1,519 yards and 13 touchdowns. Green Bay was our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview#NFS”>most likely Super Bowl Champion</a> before the injury and remains our pick to win it all even though the media, the fans and the oddsmakers are overreacting.<br /> <br /> Green Bay has a deep roster with many promising young receivers. Davante Adams is a second year pro that could make the leap to stardom filling in for Nelson. The team uses three receiver sets meaning more playing time for Jeff Janis and potentially for rookie Ty Montgomery. Plus the Packers still have Randall Cobb who caught 91 balls for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns last season.<br /> <br /> Without Nelson, the team’s average points-per-game decreases from 31.4 to 30.7 but Green Bay is still the highest scoring offense in the NFL. The defending NFC North Champions record also dips but slightly, from an average of 10.8 wins to 10.6 wins. The Packers are now 85.2 percent likely to make the playoffs and 17.0 percent likely to win the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> It is a shame that Jordy Nelson was injured but Green Bay still has Aaron Rodgers and is our pick to win the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Statistics</th> <th> With Nelson</th> <th> Without Nelson</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Record</td> <td> 10.8-5.2</td> <td> 10.6-5.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Points-Per-Game</td> <td> 31.4</td> <td> 30.7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Playoff Probability</td> <td> 86.8</td> <td> 85.2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Super Bowl Odds</td> <td> 17.1</td> <td> 17.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Fantasy Impact</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Randall-Cobb-Green-Bay-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Randall Cobb is <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>now a top-ten fantasy receiver</a>. Cobb is projected to catch 79.7 balls for 1,180 yards and 10.2 touchdowns with Nelson off the field.<br /> <br /> Davante Adams is about to rocket up draft boards but he technically is not a starter in our rankings for standard ten-team leagues. Adams is projected 71.6 receptions, 909.4 yards and 8.5 touchdowns �“ good for 32nd among wideouts.<br /> <br /> Jeff Janis’ stock is on the rise as well and could have value as a bye week fill-in or possibly as a flex option as the second year pro is projected 785.5 yards and 4.8 touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Without Nelson, Rodgers fantasy numbers decline from 4,321.8 yards and 38.5 touchdowns to 4,179.1 yards and 36.6 touchdowns. Rodgers remains the No. 2 quarterback in our rankings and there is a clear drop off between the tier of Andrew Luck and Rodgers and the rest of the signal callers in the league.<br /> <br /> No Nelson means more rushing attempts for Eddie Lacy. The running back was projected to rush for 1,476.9 yards and 11.5 touchdowns. An uptick in carries boosts Lacy’s projections to 1,507.8 yards and 12.0 touchdowns. Lacy moves from No. 3 to No. 2 among running backs.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Jordy-Nelson-Injury-Impact Mon, 24 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[PPR Value Picks �“ Cheat Sheet.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Kansas-City-Chiefs-Travis-Kelce-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Last week we provided our picks for the 2015 Fantasy <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-sleepers”>Sleepers</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-busts”>Busts</a> and <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-breakout-stars”>Breakout Stars</a>. Great reads for players in standard leagues but what about a little help for those in PPR (points-per-reception) leagues?<br /> <br /> You’ve asked and we have delivered.<br /> <br /> In the table below are PredictionMachine.com’s top 150 fantasy players in PPR leagues. PredictionMachine.com’s rankings have been compared to a composite ranking from ESPN and Yahoo. A positive number in the Difference column indicates players PredictionMachine likes (sleepers) more than the composite rank and a negative number suggests players that have the potential to not live up to their average draft position.<br /> <br /> Note: Be sure to use the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>Fantasy Football Draft Machine</a> for an additional edge in all of your drafts. Those looking for a daily fantasy edge should check out our <a href=”http://fantasy.predictionmachine.com”>optimal lineups and projections</a>.<br /> <br /> Happy drafting!<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Value Picks</strong></span><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Travis Kelce </strong></span></span><br /> 2015 projections: 77.1 receptions, 1,023.4 passing yards, 7.6 TDs<br /> 2015 Composite: 3rd tight end, 48th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 2nd tight end, 29th overall<br /> <br /> The concern with Kelce is the Chiefs offense. Andy Reid takes a conservative approach in Kansas City with Alex Smith under center. Those fears have depressed Kelce’s average draft position. We are projecting the Chiefs’ tight end to finish with over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns; both would rank in the top-25 among all receivers last year. There is a lot of value to be had with Kelce, currently being drafted late in the fifth round.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Shane Vereen</strong></span></span><br /> 2015 projections: 61.5 receptions, 439.1 rushing yards, 585.8 receiving yards, 8.4 TDs<br /> 2015 Composite: 28th running back, 67th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 19th running back, 38th overall<br /> <br /> In an offense with Odell Beckham Jr., everyone else is an afterthought. Vereen is flying under the radar. Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams are slated to get most of the rushing attempts. However, we project Vereen to have career highs in receptions, total yards and total touchdowns. If you want to wait on running backs, the Giants’ new third down back is one to target in the middle rounds of your draft.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Atlanta Running Backs</strong></span></span><br /> Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman will split touches in Atlanta but that is fine with us. Each possess a unique skill set that we project will lead to over a 1,000 total yards for both players. Neither back is likely to become a breakout star but you win your drafts in the middle rounds. Freeman and Coleman are two backs that could be solid flex plays or great bye week fill-ins.<br /> <br /> <strong><span style=”font-size:16px;”>High Prices</span></strong><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Odell-Beckham-New-York-Giants(1).jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Odell Beckham Jr. </strong></span></span><br /> 2015 projections: 74.8 receptions, 1,172.1 receiving yards, 8.5 TDs<br /> 2015 Composite: 4th receiver, 8th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 16th receiver, 35th overall<br /> <br /> Allow me to rain on the Odell Beckham is the “Best Receiver in the World” parade. Over a ten-game stretch to finish the season Beckham averaged eight catches, 123 yards and a touchdown per game. He became the first player in league history to have nine straight games with at least 90-yards receiving. ODB is no fluke but his performance is unsustainable. We are projecting Beckham to have fewer yards and touchdowns in 2015 than he did in 12 games a season ago.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Brandin Cooks </strong></span></span><br /> 2015 projections: 78.6 receptions, 893.8 receiving yards, 7.2 TDs<br /> 2015 Composite: 13th receiver, 30th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 26th receiver, 69th overall<br /> <br /> If you like Cooks, your thought process goes something like this: with Jimmy Graham in Seattle and Kenny Stills in Miami, Cooks is going to be Drew Brees’ number one target. That is all true and we don’t argue that Cooks is a top-25 receiver but that is a steep price to pay when you can find the same production a few rounds later.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Kelvin Benjamin</strong></span></span><br /> 2015 projections: 69.7 receptions, 1,002.6 receiving yards, 8.7 TDs<br /> 2015 Composite: 20th receiver, 45th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 29th receiver, 76th overall<br /> <br /> The second year player is locked in as Carolina’s top receiver and Cam Newton’s favorite target. That sounds good but does not necessarily translate to great production. His projections look similar to the numbers he posted last season and his 68.7 receptions rank 39th among all players. Not what you want in a PPR league.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>PPR Value Picks</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> PM Rank</th> <th> Player</th> <th> Pos</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Composite Rank</th> <th> Difference</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Le’Veon Bell</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Antonio Brown</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 4</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Jamaal Charles</td> <td> RB</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 2</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Eddie Lacy</td> <td> RB</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 5</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> Adrian Peterson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 3</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Rob Gronkowski</td> <td> TE</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Dez Bryant</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Marshawn Lynch</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Calvin Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Julio Jones</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 6</td> <td> -4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 11</td> <td> LeSean McCoy</td> <td> RB</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 12</td> <td> C.J. Anderson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 13</td> <td> Demaryius Thomas</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 7</td> <td> -6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 14</td> <td> DeMarco Murray</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 19</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 15</td> <td> Matt Forte</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 10</td> <td> -5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 16</td> <td> A.J. Green</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 15</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 17</td> <td> Andrew Luck</td> <td> QB</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 18</td> <td> Jeremy Hill</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 19</td> <td> Mike Evans</td> <td> WR</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 20</td> <td> Alshon Jeffery</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 21</td> <td> Jordy Nelson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 18</td> <td> -3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 22</td> <td> Aaron Rodgers</td> <td> QB</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 23</td> <td> DeAndre Hopkins</td> <td> WR</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 33</td> <td> 10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 24</td> <td> Lamar Miller</td> <td> RB</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 29</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 25</td> <td> Justin Forsett</td> <td> RB</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 13</td> <td> -12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 26</td> <td> Jordan Matthews</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 27</td> <td> Latavius Murray</td> <td> RB</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 37</td> <td> 10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 28</td> <td> Julian Edelman</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 36</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 29</td> <td> Travis Kelce</td> <td> TE</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 48</td> <td> 19</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 30</td> <td> T.Y. Hilton</td> <td> WR</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 24</td> <td> -6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 31</td> <td> Randall Cobb</td> <td> WR</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 17</td> <td> -14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 32</td> <td> Frank Gore</td> <td> RB</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 32</td> <td> 0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 33</td> <td> Jimmy Graham</td> <td> TE</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 46</td> <td> 13</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 34</td> <td> Alfred Morris</td> <td> RB</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 51</td> <td> 17</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 35</td> <td> Odell Beckham</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 8</td> <td> -27</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 36</td> <td> Mark Ingram</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 34</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 37</td> <td> Greg Olsen</td> <td> TE</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 54</td> <td> 17</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 38</td> <td> Shane Vereen</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 67</td> <td> 29</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 39</td> <td> Jarvis Landry</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 58</td> <td> 19</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 40</td> <td> Golden Tate</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 43</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 41</td> <td> T.J. Yeldon</td> <td> RB</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 62</td> <td> 21</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 42</td> <td> Jonathan Stewart</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 41</td> <td> -1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 43</td> <td> Brandon Marshall</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 55</td> <td> 12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 44</td> <td> Devonta Freeman</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 87</td> <td> 43</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 45</td> <td> Andre Ellington</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 27</td> <td> -18</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 46</td> <td> Joseph Randle</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 44</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 47</td> <td> Melvin Gordon</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 40</td> <td> -7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 48</td> <td> Chris Ivory</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 73</td> <td> 25</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 49</td> <td> Martellus Bennett</td> <td> TE</td> <td> CHI</td> <td> 63</td> <td> 14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 50</td> <td> Todd Gurley</td> <td> RB</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 64</td> <td> 14</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 51</td> <td> Vincent Jackson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 76</td> <td> 25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 52</td> <td> Kendall Wright</td> <td> WR</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 94</td> <td> 42</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 53</td> <td> Delanie Walker</td> <td> TE</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 90</td> <td> 37</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 54</td> <td> Amari Cooper</td> <td> WR</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 83</td> <td> 29</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 56</td> <td> Pierre Garcon</td> <td> WR</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 74</td> <td> 18</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 57</td> <td> Jeremy Maclin</td> <td> WR</td> <td> KC</td> <td> 59</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 58</td> <td> Ladarius Green</td> <td> TE</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 141</td> <td> 83</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 59</td> <td> C.J. Spiller</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 26</td> <td> -33</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 60</td> <td> Russell Wilson</td> <td> QB</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> 42</td> <td> -18</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 61</td> <td> Carlos Hyde</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 50</td> <td> -11</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 62</td> <td> Andre Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 35</td> <td> -27</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 63</td> <td> Tony Romo</td> <td> QB</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 69</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 64</td> <td> Ameer Abdullah</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 39</td> <td> -25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 65</td> <td> Cam Newton</td> <td> QB</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 72</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 66</td> <td> Tevin Coleman</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 107</td> <td> 41</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 67</td> <td> Charles Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 92</td> <td> 25</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 68</td> <td> Eric Decker</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYJ</td> <td> 71</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 69</td> <td> Brandin Cooks</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 30</td> <td> -39</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 70</td> <td> Jordan Cameron</td> <td> TE</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 95</td> <td> 25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 71</td> <td> DeSean Jackson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 61</td> <td> -10</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 72</td> <td> Jason Witten</td> <td> TE</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 89</td> <td> 17</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 73</td> <td> Ben Roethlisberger</td> <td> QB</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 56</td> <td> -17</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 74</td> <td> Rashad Jennings</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 82</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 75</td> <td> Zach Ertz</td> <td> TE</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 114</td> <td> 39</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 76</td> <td> Kelvin Benjamin</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CAR</td> <td> 45</td> <td> -31</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 77</td> <td> LeGarrette Blount</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 65</td> <td> -12</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 78</td> <td> Keenan Allen</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 52</td> <td> -26</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 79</td> <td> John Brown</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 86</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 80</td> <td> Austin Seferian-Jenkins</td> <td> TE</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 104</td> <td> 24</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 81</td> <td> Emmanuel Sanders</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 38</td> <td> -43</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 82</td> <td> Heath Miller</td> <td> TE</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 134</td> <td> 52</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 83</td> <td> Giovani Bernard</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 53</td> <td> -30</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 84</td> <td> Tre Mason</td> <td> RB</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 111</td> <td> 27</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 85</td> <td> Sammy Watkins</td> <td> WR</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 75</td> <td> -10</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 86</td> <td> Steve Smith</td> <td> WR</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 70</td> <td> -16</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 87</td> <td> Martavis Bryant</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 78</td> <td> -9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 88</td> <td> Darren Sproles</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 154</td> <td> 66</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 89</td> <td> Bishop Sankey</td> <td> RB</td> <td> TEN</td> <td> 115</td> <td> 26</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 90</td> <td> Peyton Manning</td> <td> QB</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> 57</td> <td> -33</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 91</td> <td> Danny Woodhead</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 85</td> <td> -6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 92</td> <td> Alfred Blue</td> <td> RB</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 122</td> <td> 30</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 93</td> <td> Anquan Boldin</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 66</td> <td> -27</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 94</td> <td> Mike Wallace</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 81</td> <td> -13</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 95</td> <td> Brandon LaFell</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NE</td> <td> 77</td> <td> -18</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 96</td> <td> Eli Manning</td> <td> QB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 84</td> <td> -12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 97</td> <td> Joique Bell</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DET</td> <td> 100</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 98</td> <td> Marques Colston</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 91</td> <td> -7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 99</td> <td> Allen Robinson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 47</td> <td> -52</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 100</td> <td> Ryan Tannehill</td> <td> QB</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 98</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 101</td> <td> Michael Floyd</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 121</td> <td> 20</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 102</td> <td> Nelson Agholor</td> <td> WR</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 131</td> <td> 29</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 103</td> <td> Drew Brees</td> <td> QB</td> <td> NO</td> <td> 49</td> <td> -54</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 104</td> <td> Daniel Herron</td> <td> RB</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 182</td> <td> 78</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 105</td> <td> Vernon Davis</td> <td> TE</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 142</td> <td> 37</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 106</td> <td> Julius Thomas</td> <td> TE</td> <td> JAC</td> <td> 99</td> <td> -7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 108</td> <td> Tyler Eifert</td> <td> TE</td> <td> CIN</td> <td> 97</td> <td> -11</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 109</td> <td> Duke Johnson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 110</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 110</td> <td> Joe Flacco</td> <td> QB</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 152</td> <td> 42</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 111</td> <td> Michael Crabtree</td> <td> WR</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 144</td> <td> 33</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 112</td> <td> Charles Sims</td> <td> RB</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 129</td> <td> 17</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 113</td> <td> Matt Ryan</td> <td> QB</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 68</td> <td> -45</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 114</td> <td> Doug Martin</td> <td> RB</td> <td> TB</td> <td> 80</td> <td> -34</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 115</td> <td> Terrance Williams</td> <td> WR</td> <td> DAL</td> <td> 148</td> <td> 33</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 117</td> <td> Rueben Randle</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 140</td> <td> 23</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 118</td> <td> Kyle Rudolph</td> <td> TE</td> <td> MIN</td> <td> 113</td> <td> -5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 120</td> <td> Ryan Mathews</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PHI</td> <td> 112</td> <td> -8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 121</td> <td> Roddy White</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ATL</td> <td> 60</td> <td> -61</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 122</td> <td> DeAngelo Williams</td> <td> RB</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> 175</td> <td> 53</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 123</td> <td> Larry Fitzgerald</td> <td> WR</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 79</td> <td> -44</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 124</td> <td> Arian Foster</td> <td> RB</td> <td> HOU</td> <td> 105</td> <td> -19</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 125</td> <td> David Johnson</td> <td> RB</td> <td> ARI</td> <td> 173</td> <td> 48</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 126</td> <td> Kenny Stills</td> <td> WR</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> 116</td> <td> -10</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 127</td> <td> Andre Williams</td> <td> RB</td> <td> NYG</td> <td> 166</td> <td> 39</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 128</td> <td> Torrey Smith</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 101</td> <td> -27</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 129</td> <td> Isaiah Crowell</td> <td> RB</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 102</td> <td> -27</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 130</td> <td> Reggie Bush</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SF</td> <td> 88</td> <td> -42</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 131</td> <td> Davante Adams</td> <td> WR</td> <td> GB</td> <td> 117</td> <td> -14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 132</td> <td> Stevie Johnson</td> <td> WR</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 123</td> <td> -9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 133</td> <td> Brian Quick</td> <td> WR</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 147</td> <td> 14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 134</td> <td> Jordan Reed</td> <td> TE</td> <td> WAS</td> <td> 127</td> <td> -7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 135</td> <td> Philip Rivers</td> <td> QB</td> <td> SD</td> <td> 109</td> <td> -26</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 136</td> <td> Dwayne Bowe</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 150</td> <td> 14</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 138</td> <td> Donte Moncrief</td> <td> WR</td> <td> IND</td> <td> 170</td> <td> 32</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 139</td> <td> Andrew Hawkins</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> 172</td> <td> 33</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 140</td> <td> Jared Cook</td> <td> TE</td> <td> STL</td> <td> N/A</td> <td> N/A</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 141</td> <td> Montee Ball</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DEN</td> <td> N/A</td> <td> N/A</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 142</td> <td> Stedman Bailey</td> <td> WR</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 188</td> <td> 46</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 143</td> <td> Kenny Britt</td> <td> WR</td> <td> STL</td> <td> 185</td> <td> 42</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 144</td> <td> Roy Helu</td> <td> RB</td> <td> OAK</td> <td> 137</td> <td> -7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 145</td> <td> Charles Clay</td> <td> TE</td> <td> BUF</td> <td> 143</td> <td> -2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 146</td> <td> Brian Hartline</td> <td> WR</td> <td> CLE</td> <td> N/A</td> <td> N/A</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 147</td> <td> Theo Riddick</td> <td> RB</td> <td> DET</td> <td> N/A</td> <td> N/A</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 148</td> <td> Nick Toon</td> <td> WR</td> <td> NO</td> <td> N/A</td> <td> N/A</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 149</td> <td> Breshad Perriman</td> <td> WR</td> <td> BAL</td> <td> 161</td> <td> 12</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 150</td> <td> Robert Turbin</td> <td> RB</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> N/A</td> <td> N/A</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/PPR-Value-Picks-2015-Cheat-Sheet Tue, 18 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Which draft position produces the best team?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Rob-Gronk-New-England-Patriots-NFL.png” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Are you preparing for a fantasy football draft? Of course you are, we all live for fantasy football! To make drafting easier and to help you dominate your league we provide, for free, the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Fantasy-Football-Draft-Tools-Optimizer”>Mock Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> The Draft Machine allows for the creation of mock drafts as well as an innovative evaluation process to determine which players to select and which teams are drafting well.<br /> <br /> Utilizing the evaluation process, we are able to determine which draft position produces the best team in a variety of leagues. The draft evaluation process provides rankings for both the regular season as well as the full season including the playoffs. Also, fantasy point projections for both the regular and full season as well.<br /> <br /> We evaluated four of the most popular fantasy leagues: 10 Team League with Standard Scoring, 10 Team League with Point Per Reception (PPR) Scoring, 12 Team League with Standard Scoring, 12 Team League with PPR Scoring.<br /> <br /> In addition to the size and scoring settings, all four leagues start one quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, one tight end, one defense and one kicker with six bench spots. The draft rankings were based on PredictionMachine.com’s <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>Top 350 Fantasy Rankings</a>, though rankings from ESPN, Yahoo and CBS are available. One final note, in these simulations defenses and kickers are taken before bench players to ensure completed starting rosters for all teams (a requirement for some fantasy sites – since all teams follow this rule for two rounds of a snake draft, it does not have any impact on the results below). Following our rankings during an actual draft, we would not necessarily recommend drafting a defense or kicker early (if at all) since marginal value in either position is minimal and week-by-week streaming is a viable strategy.<br /> <br /> Does your league have more players or custom scoring? The League Settings in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Fantasy-Football-Draft-Tools-Optimizer”>Mock Draft Machine</a> cater to any league. To get started drafting click <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Fantasy-Football-Draft-Tools-Optimizer”>here</a>.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>10 Team League �“ Standard Scoring</strong></span></span><br /> Best draft position �“ 6th Pick<br /> <br /> Running backs typically dominate the first round of any draft (seven of the first ten picks in this draft carry the rock) but without a top five pick it is unlikely that one of the top backs (Le’Veon Bell, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch) will be available. Instead, with the sixth pick its best to zig while everyone else is zagging.<br /> <br /> Enter Gronk. The Patriots tight end is the best player at his position and it isn’t even close. In the second round, while others are loading up on more running backs the best strategy is to snag a top receiver. Julio Jones is a wideout with <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-breakout-stars”>top-five potential</a>. By the third round it is time to address the running back position. Yet five of the team’s top seven picks were used on other positions.<br /> <br /> It turns out, in a ten-team league with standard scoring the best strategy without a top five pick is to wait on running backs. Of course using this strategy means loading up on backs in the later rounds so you can play the matchups week to week.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Round</th> <th> Player</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Rob Gronkowski (TE)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Julio Jones (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Latavius Murray (RB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Jordan Matthews (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> Todd Gurley (RB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Jarvis Landry (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Ryan Tannehill (QB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Andre Ellington (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Emmanuel Sanders (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Bishop Sankey (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 11</td> <td> Heath Miller (TE)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 12</td> <td> Carson Palmer (QB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 13</td> <td> Colin Kaepernick (QB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 14</td> <td> Cleveland Browns (DEF)</td> </tr> <tr> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 15</td> <td> Kai Forbath (K)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Draft Evaluations</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Reg Season Rank</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Reg FPs</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Team 6</td> <td> 1541.3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Team 3</td> <td> 1534.8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Team 5</td> <td> 1529.5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Team 9</td> <td> 1512.7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> Team 2</td> <td> 1490.2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Team 1</td> <td> 1485.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Team 10</td> <td> 1485.3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Team 8</td> <td> 1485.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Team 7</td> <td> 1482.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Team 4</td> <td> 1354.2</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>10 Team League �“ PPR Scoring</strong></span></span><br /> Best draft position �“ 2nd Pick<br /> <br /> Scoring settings makes all the difference. In the standard ten-team league, seven of the first ten picks were running backs. In a point-per-reception league, receivers, especially high volume pass catchers, become even more valuable. With the second pick it isn’t unreasonable to take a receiver over one of the top running backs.<br /> <br /> In a ten-team PPR league the strategy is a straightforward, target receiver early and often.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Round</th> <th> Player</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Antonio Brown (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Mike Evans (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Lamar Miller (RB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Mark Ingram (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> Tony Romo (QB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Charles Johnson (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Jason Witten (TE)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Alfred Morris (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Sammy Watkins (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Steve Smith (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 11</td> <td> Marques Colston (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 12</td> <td> Kenny Stills (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 13</td> <td> Breshad Perriman (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 14</td> <td> Houston Texans (DEF)</td> </tr> <tr> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 15</td> <td> Graham Gano (K)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Draft Evaluation</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Reg Season Rank</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Reg FPs</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Team 2</td> <td> 1534.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Team 7</td> <td> 1509.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Team 9</td> <td> 1506.2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Team 5</td> <td> 1485.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> Team 6</td> <td> 1473.5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Team 3</td> <td> 1471</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Team 8</td> <td> 1468.3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Team 1</td> <td> 1467</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Team 10</td> <td> 1451.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Team 4</td> <td> 1431</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>12 Team League �“ Standard Scoring</strong></span></span><br /> Best draft position �“ 12th Pick<br /> <br /> The addition of two more teams changes the results in a standard league. In the ten-team league the 6th Pick was the best draft position, in a league with this format the 12th Pick is best.<br /> <br /> Picking last can seem like a burden but it’s really not. The ability to make back-to-back picks allows an owner to address multiple positions at once (1st pick was used on a running back and the 2nd pick, one pick later, was used on a quarterback) or to fill in an entire position all at once (used the 5th and 6th picks to take receivers).<br /> <br /> Drafting last you end up taking the No. 1 quarterback who is projected to score the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>most points in fantasy</a>, two top-20 running backs, two top-25 receivers and the best option at tight end after Gronk and Jimmy Graham, not bad for your first six picks.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Round</th> <th> Player</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> C.J. Anderson (RB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Andrew Luck (QB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Travis Kelce (TE)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Joseph Randle (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> DeSean Jackson (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Jeremy Maclin (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Keenan Allen (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Andre Ellington (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Marques Colston (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Teddy Bridgewater (QB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 11</td> <td> Kenny Stills (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 12</td> <td> Larry Fitzgerald (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 13</td> <td> Mike Tolbert (RB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 14</td> <td> Seattle Seahawks (DEF)</td> </tr> <tr> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 15</td> <td> Randy Bullock (K)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Draft Evaluation</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Reg Season Rank</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Reg FPs</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Team 12</td> <td> 1472.2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Team 9</td> <td> 1469.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Team 11</td> <td> 1451.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Team 1</td> <td> 1447.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> Team 6</td> <td> 1445.1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Team 2</td> <td> 1443.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Team 5</td> <td> 1436.2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Team 3</td> <td> 1427.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Team 10</td> <td> 1427.1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Team 8</td> <td> 1423.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 11</td> <td> Team 7</td> <td> 1399.8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 12</td> <td> Team 4</td> <td> 1347.4</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>12 Team League �“ PPR Scoring</strong></span></span><br /> Best draft position �“ 7th Pick<br /> <br /> The 7th pick in this format returns quite a haul. You get all-world player Rob Gronkowski and then a collection of players with the potential to outperform their average draft position. Justin Forsett can be a top-ten back again this year and we are high on T.J. Yeldon in his rookie season even if he is playing in Jacksonville. Jordan Matthews and Vincent Jackson are top-20 options at receiver and a full season from RG3 could help Pierre Garcon return to the top-20 among pass catchers as well.<br /> <br /> Like we have seen in other formats, without a top five pick do not be afraid to wait on ball carriers. In this draft, three of the first four picks for this team were used on positions other than running backs.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Round</th> <th> Player</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Rob Gronkowski (TE)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Justin Forsett (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Jordan Matthews (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Vincent Jackson (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> T.J. Yeldon (RB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Pierre Garcon (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Matt Ryan (QB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Lance Dunbar (RB)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Marques Colston (WR)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Larry Donnell (TE)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 11</td> <td> Andre Williams (RB)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 12</td> <td> Roddy White (WR)</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 13</td> <td> Crockett Gillmore (TE)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 14</td> <td> Green Bay Packers (DEF)</td> </tr> <tr> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 15</td> <td> Stephen Gostkowski (K)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Draft Evaluation</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Reg Season Rank</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Reg FPs</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 1</td> <td> Team 7</td> <td> 1842.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2</td> <td> Team 6</td> <td> 1823.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 3</td> <td> Team 3</td> <td> 1821.7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4</td> <td> Team 1</td> <td> 1821.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 5</td> <td> Team 11</td> <td> 1795.1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 6</td> <td> Team 8</td> <td> 1793.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 7</td> <td> Team 5</td> <td> 1779.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 8</td> <td> Team 10</td> <td> 1779.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 9</td> <td> Team 12</td> <td> 1773.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 10</td> <td> Team 9</td> <td> 1758.4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 11</td> <td> Team 2</td> <td> 1708.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 12</td> <td> Team 4</td> <td> 1687.6</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> After looking at four different leagues it is clear that a winner can emerge from any draft position. Well, almost any. In each mock draft the team with the fourth overall pick finished last. If you are picking fourth in your draft beware.<br /> <br /> Of course, every league is different but to get an edge on the competition be sure to use the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Fantasy-Football-Draft-Tools-Optimizer”>Mock Draft Machine</a> on draft day!<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-Fantasy-Football-best-draft-position Mon, 17 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[How would starting the second quarterback on the roster change an NFL season?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Brady-Garoppolo-New-England-Patriots-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Jimmy Garoppolo is slated to start the first four games of the season for the New England Patriots as Tom Brady serves his four-game suspension for Deflate-Gate. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start Week 1 for the Jets after Geno Smith suffered a broken jaw that will sideline him for six to ten weeks. You never know when or for what reason a backup quarterback’s services will be called upon.<br /> <br /> Patriots’ fans are lucky, they know Tom Brady is coming back but what if he wasn’t? How would the Packers season change if Aaron Rodgers were not under center? Could the Broncos make the playoffs if Brock Osweiler was starting instead of Peyton Manning?<br /> <br /> To find out, we simulated what would happen if the backup for each NFL team started all sixteen games in a season.<br /> <br /> <strong>How This Works</strong><br /> We simulated the regular season and playoffs 50,000 times, once with the current starter and then again for the projected backup. Using the power of the Predictalator, we are able to compute the likelihood of each team making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl with the projected starter and backup allowing us to analyze the impact each player has on the team.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>The backup plan</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Assuming Brady misses the first four games of the season, the defending Super Bowl Champions still win their division and are the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview”>second seed in the AFC</a>. However, if Garoppolo started a full season the Patriots’ playoff chances would decrease from 79.0 percent to 24.6 percent.<br /> <br /> The Green Bay Packers are the most likely Super Bowl Champions, winning it all a league-high <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview”>17.1 percent of the time</a>. The Packers, with Rodgers reach the postseason an NFL-best 86.8 percent of the time. If Scott Tolzien were calling the plays, instead of the 2014 MVP, the Packs’ playoff chances decrease by 48.0 percent.<br /> <br /> Some think that Father Time is catching up with Peyton Manning, for fantasy purposes, the future Hall of Famer has <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-busts”>bust potential</a>. Still, the Broncos best chance of making the playoffs is with Manning starting a full season. If Brock Osweiler were to start, Denver’s playoff probability decreases from 70.8 percent to 24.3 percent.<br /> <br /> There are twelve teams in the NFL that could start the backup and the team’s playoff odds would decrease by less than 10 percent. Most of those teams are either just bad (like the Jets) or have replacement level quarterbacks on the depth chart (like the Eagles).<br /> <br /> There is only one team that would benefit from starting its backup. Jacksonville invested the third overall pick in the draft on Blake Bortles a year ago but after a disastrous rookie campaign the Jaguars would be better off handing the ball over to Chad Henne.<br /> <br /> Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Sanchez and Tarvaris Jackson, if they were starters, would all be greater than 50 percent likely to lead their teams to the postseason. That is more of an endorsement of the Colts, Eagles and Seahawks, than of the quarterbacks themselves.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Playoff Projections: Starters and Backups</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Starter (S)</th> <th> Backup (B)</th> <th> (S) In Playoffs</th> <th> (B) In Playoffs</th> <th> DIFF</th> <th> % Change</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Patriots</td> <td> T. Brady</td> <td> J. Garoppolo</td> <td> 79.0</td> <td> 24.6</td> <td> -54.4</td> <td> -68.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Packers</td> <td> A. Rodgers</td> <td> S. Tolzien</td> <td> 86.8</td> <td> 38.8</td> <td> -48.0</td> <td> -55.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Broncos</td> <td> P. Manning</td> <td> B. Osweiler</td> <td> 70.8</td> <td> 24.3</td> <td> -46.5</td> <td> -65.7%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steelers</td> <td> B. Roethlisberger</td> <td> B. Gradkowski</td> <td> 42.9</td> <td> 6.6</td> <td> -36.3</td> <td> -84.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cowboys</td> <td> T. Romo</td> <td> B. Weeden</td> <td> 43.4</td> <td> 10.7</td> <td> -32.7</td> <td> -75.3%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Falcons</td> <td> M. Ryan</td> <td> T.J. Yates</td> <td> 32.0</td> <td> 4.7</td> <td> -27.3</td> <td> -85.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Giants</td> <td> E. Manning</td> <td> R. Nassib</td> <td> 31.9</td> <td> 5.2</td> <td> -26.7</td> <td> -83.7%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Panthers</td> <td> C. Newton</td> <td> D. Anderson</td> <td> 64.0</td> <td> 41.9</td> <td> -22.1</td> <td> -34.5%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Colts</td> <td> A. Luck</td> <td> M. Hasselbeck</td> <td> 85.3</td> <td> 63.3</td> <td> -22.0</td> <td> -25.8%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Saints</td> <td> D. Brees</td> <td> L. McCown</td> <td> 24.9</td> <td> 4.9</td> <td> -20.0</td> <td> -80.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bengals</td> <td> A. Dalton</td> <td> AJ McCarron</td> <td> 42.4</td> <td> 25.5</td> <td> -16.9</td> <td> -39.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chiefs</td> <td> A. Smith</td> <td> C. Daniel</td> <td> 35.7</td> <td> 19.5</td> <td> -16.2</td> <td> -45.4%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ravens</td> <td> J. Flacco</td> <td> M. Schaub</td> <td> 42.1</td> <td> 27.3</td> <td> -14.8</td> <td> -35.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seahawks</td> <td> R. Wilson</td> <td> T. Jackson</td> <td> 83.3</td> <td> 69.9</td> <td> -13.4</td> <td> -16.1%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Lions</td> <td> M. Stafford</td> <td> D. Orlovsky</td> <td> 22.9</td> <td> 10.2</td> <td> -12.7</td> <td> -55.5%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chargers</td> <td> P. Rivers</td> <td> K. Clemens</td> <td> 27.5</td> <td> 15.5</td> <td> -12.0</td> <td> -43.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Vikings</td> <td> T. Bridgewater</td> <td> S. Hill</td> <td> 51.2</td> <td> 39.4</td> <td> -11.8</td> <td> -23.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dolphins</td> <td> R. Tannehill</td> <td> M. Moore</td> <td> 52.7</td> <td> 41.3</td> <td> -11.4</td> <td> -21.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 49ers</td> <td> C. Kaepernick</td> <td> B. Gabbert</td> <td> 13.1</td> <td> 2.2</td> <td> -10.9</td> <td> -83.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bills</td> <td> EJ Manuel</td> <td> M. Cassel</td> <td> 28.7</td> <td> 20.0</td> <td> -8.7</td> <td> -30.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bears</td> <td> J. Cutler</td> <td> J. Clausen</td> <td> 11.3</td> <td> 3.3</td> <td> -8.0</td> <td> -70.8%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Browns</td> <td> J. McCown</td> <td> J. Manziel</td> <td> 20.9</td> <td> 14.0</td> <td> -6.9</td> <td> -33.0%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cardinals</td> <td> C. Palmer</td> <td> D. Stanton</td> <td> 18.4</td> <td> 11.5</td> <td> -6.9</td> <td> -37.5%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Titans</td> <td> M. Mariota</td> <td> Z. Mettenberger</td> <td> 15.2</td> <td> 9.4</td> <td> -5.8</td> <td> -38.2%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buccaneers</td> <td> J. Winston</td> <td> M. Glennon</td> <td> 11.3</td> <td> 7.2</td> <td> -4.1</td> <td> -36.3%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Raiders</td> <td> D. Carr</td> <td> C. Ponder</td> <td> 16.9</td> <td> 13.1</td> <td> -3.8</td> <td> -22.5%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eagles</td> <td> S. Bradford</td> <td> M. Sanchez</td> <td> 57.5</td> <td> 53.9</td> <td> -3.6</td> <td> -6.3%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rams</td> <td> N. Foles</td> <td> A. Davis</td> <td> 27.4</td> <td> 23.8</td> <td> -3.6</td> <td> -13.1%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Texans</td> <td> B. Hoyer</td> <td> R. Mallett</td> <td> 33.2</td> <td> 32.3</td> <td> -0.9</td> <td> -2.7%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jets</td> <td> R. Fitzpatrick</td> <td> G. Smith</td> <td> 13.8</td> <td> 12.9</td> <td> -0.9</td> <td> -6.5%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Redskins</td> <td> R. Griffin</td> <td> K. Cousins</td> <td> 22.6</td> <td> 22.0</td> <td> -0.6</td> <td> -2.7%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jaguars</td> <td> B. Bortles</td> <td> C. Henne</td> <td> +2.3</td> <td> +4.6</td> <td> +2.3</td> <td> 100.0%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Additional Highlights (Super Bowl, Win Total, Points/Game)</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Green-Bay-Packers-NFL-Rodgers-Tolzien.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Aaron Rodgers makes the Packers the favorites to win the Super Bowl (17.1 percent). Green Bay is so talented that if you replaced Rodgers with Tolzien, the Cheeseheads would still be the fourth (5.9 percent) most likely championship team.<br /> <br /> Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are worth more than seven points per game than their backup. Brady is worth nearly nine points over Garoppolo.<br /> <br /> Seven teams (Patriots, Packers, Broncos, Steelers, Giants, Falcons and Cowboys) would lose at least two additional games by starting their second string quarterback. Five of the seven teams were in the playoffs a season ago.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Starter (S)</th> <th> Backup (B)</th> <th> Win Super Bowl Diff</th> <th> Win Total Diff</th> <th> Pts/GM Diff</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Patriots</td> <td> T. Brady</td> <td> J. Garoppolo</td> <td> -2.8</td> <td> -3.0</td> <td> -8.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Packers</td> <td> A. Rodgers</td> <td> S. Tolzien</td> <td> -11.2</td> <td> -2.8</td> <td> -7.7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Broncos</td> <td> P. Manning</td> <td> B. Osweiler</td> <td> -8.1</td> <td> -2.6</td> <td> -7.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Falcons</td> <td> M. Ryan</td> <td> T.J. Yates</td> <td> -0.7</td> <td> -2.4</td> <td> -6.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cowboys</td> <td> T. Romo</td> <td> B. Weeden</td> <td> -3.2</td> <td> -2.2</td> <td> -6.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steelers</td> <td> B. Roethlisberger</td> <td> B. Gradkowski</td> <td> -1.8</td> <td> -2.6</td> <td> -6.4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Giants</td> <td> E. Manning</td> <td> R. Nassib</td> <td> -1.3</td> <td> -2.4</td> <td> -6.3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Saints</td> <td> D. Brees</td> <td> L. McCown</td> <td> -0.4</td> <td> -1.9</td> <td> -5.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 49ers</td> <td> C. Kaepernick</td> <td> B. Gabbert</td> <td> -0.3</td> <td> -1.8</td> <td> -4.3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Colts</td> <td> A. Luck</td> <td> M. Hasselbeck</td> <td> -5.1</td> <td> -1.4</td> <td> -4.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Panthers</td> <td> C. Newton</td> <td> D. Anderson</td> <td> -1.7</td> <td> -1.2</td> <td> -3.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bears</td> <td> J. Cutler</td> <td> J. Clausen</td> <td> -0.1</td> <td> -1.2</td> <td> -3.0</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bengals</td> <td> A. Dalton</td> <td> AJ McCarron</td> <td> -1.0</td> <td> -1.1</td> <td> -2.8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Lions</td> <td> M. Stafford</td> <td> D. Orlovsky</td> <td> -0.4</td> <td> -1.0</td> <td> -2.8</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chiefs</td> <td> A. Smith</td> <td> C. Daniel</td> <td> -1.1</td> <td> -1.1</td> <td> -2.7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seahawks</td> <td> R. Wilson</td> <td> T. Jackson</td> <td> -3.7</td> <td> -1.0</td> <td> -2.7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Vikings</td> <td> T. Bridgewater</td> <td> S. Hill</td> <td> -0.9</td> <td> -0.6</td> <td> -2.5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ravens</td> <td> J. Flacco</td> <td> M. Schaub</td> <td> -0.8</td> <td> -0.9</td> <td> -2.3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chargers</td> <td> P. Rivers</td> <td> K. Clemens</td> <td> -0.7</td> <td> -0.9</td> <td> -2.1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cardinals</td> <td> C. Palmer</td> <td> D. Stanton</td> <td> -0.3</td> <td> -0.6</td> <td> -1.9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bills</td> <td> EJ Manuel</td> <td> M. Cassel</td> <td> -0.4</td> <td> -0.5</td> <td> -1.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dolphins</td> <td> R. Tannehill</td> <td> M. Moore</td> <td> -1.5</td> <td> -0.6</td> <td> -1.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Browns</td> <td> J. McCown</td> <td> J. Manziel</td> <td> -0.2</td> <td> -0.6</td> <td> -1.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buccaneers</td> <td> J. Winston</td> <td> M. Glennon</td> <td> -0.1</td> <td> -0.6</td> <td> -1.4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Raiders</td> <td> D. Carr</td> <td> C. Ponder</td> <td> -0.2</td> <td> -0.5</td> <td> -1.3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Titans</td> <td> M. Mariota</td> <td> Z. Mettenberger</td> <td> -0.1</td> <td> -0.5</td> <td> -1.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eagles</td> <td> S. Bradford</td> <td> M. Sanchez</td> <td> -1.1</td> <td> -0.2</td> <td> -1.1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Texans</td> <td> B. Hoyer</td> <td> R. Mallett</td> <td> -0.2</td> <td> -0.1</td> <td> -0.9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rams</td> <td> N. Foles</td> <td> A. Davis</td> <td> -0.2</td> <td> -0.4</td> <td> -0.7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Redskins</td> <td> R. Griffin</td> <td> K. Cousins</td> <td> -0.1</td> <td> -0.2</td> <td> -0.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jets</td> <td> R. Fitzpatrick</td> <td> G. Smith</td> <td> 0.0</td> <td> -0.1</td> <td> -0.2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jaguars</td> <td> B. Bortles</td> <td> C. Henne</td> <td> 0.0</td> <td> +0.2</td> <td> +0.3</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Backup-Quarterbacks-NFL-2015 Thu, 13 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[2015 Fantasy Football – sleepers, busts and breakout players.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Dallas-Cowboys-Tony-Romo-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Fantasy football is back!<br /> <br /> With that in mind, over the next few days we will provide our picks for 2015 sleepers, busts and breakout players based PredictionMachine.com’s <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>2015 Fantasy Football Rankings</a>.<br /> <br /> Here is how we define each:<br /> <br /> <strong>Sleeper</strong>: A player not being drafted as a starter but should be.<br /> <br /> <strong>Bust</strong>: A player drafted as a starter but will disappoint.<br /> <br /> <strong>Breakout Player</strong>: A player we project to finish in the top five at their position but are not currently being drafted like a superstar.<br /> <br /> Note: Average draft position (ADP) is a composite of rankings from ESPN and Yahoo. Be sure to use the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>Fantasy Football Draft Machine</a> for an additional edge in all your drafts.<br /> <br /> Looking for a daily fantasy edge? Check out our <a href=”http://fantasy.predictionmachine.com”>optimal lineups and projections</a>.<br /> <br /> Previously: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-sleepers”>2015 Fantasy Sleepers</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-busts”>2015 Fantasy Busts</a> and now Fantasy Breakout Stars.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Tony Romo</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 4,011.9 passing yards, 35.5 TDs, 13.0 INTs<br /> 2015 ADP: 8th quarterback, 56th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 4th quarterback, 38th overall<br /> <br /> Romo is a polarizing quarterback playing for a team that fans either love or hate. Look past the jersey and you see an incredibly efficient quarterback that threw 34 touchdowns (4th most) while only attempting 435 passes (23rd) last season.<br /> <br /> Dallas’ line is great and the Cowboys will still look to run the ball but Romo’s attempts, yards and touchdowns are projected to increase from a season ago. Romo finished outside the top ten last year but on a points-per-game basis he is a top three starter in 2015.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Cam Newton</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 4,044.4 passing yards, 28.1 TDs, 15.5 INTs<br /> 2015 ADP: 9th quarterback, 60th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 5th quarterback, 43rd overall<br /> <br /> Carolina’s captain was a top five fantasy quarterback his first three years in the league. Injuries (ankle, rib) limited Newton early last season resulting in him finishing 15th among fantasy starters. A down year plus a <a href=”http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13408997/cam-newton-carolina-panthers-gets-scuffle-shoves-josh-norman”>fight in practice</a> has depressed Newton’s fantasy value, but we don’t buy it.<br /> <br /> We are projecting Newton to have career highs in passing yards and touchdowns. Newton is also a proven runner and we project him to rush for 543.7 yards (2nd most among QBs) and 4.1 rushing touchdowns. The Panthers quarterback is a top-five fantasy option that is currently going in the sixth round or later in drafts.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>DeMarco Murray</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,164.5 rushing yards, 243.5 receiving yards, 13.1 Total TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 8th running back, 15th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 6th running back, 10th overall<br /> <br /> Uncertainty in the fantasy community breeds opportunity for the smart owner. Yes, Murray had 392 rushing attempts last year, the sixth most ever in a single season. History has not been kind to backs that <a href=”http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2364369-will-demarco-murray-overcome-the-curse-of-370″>top 370 carries</a> but we don’t believe in curses. Murray will have over 1,400 combined yards and double-digit touchdowns. While the Eagles new running back doesn’t technically rank in our top-five (closest at this position), he does have the potential to finish there at the end of the season..<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Julio-Jones-Atlanta-Falcons.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Julio Jones</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,565.3 receiving yards, 7.4 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 6th receiver, 17th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 4th receiver, 15th overall<br /> <br /> This is pretty straightforward. Jones finished in the top three in targets, receptions and yards last season. Yet he wasn’t a top-five fantasy receiver. Why? Julio finished tied for 29th among receivers in touchdowns. His targets and yards should mirror last year’s totals. If a few more of those receptions cross the goal line Jones will become a top-five wideout.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Jordan Cameron</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 667.5 receiving yards, 6.2 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 9th tight end, 101st overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 6th tight end, 83rd overall<br /> <br /> Cameron is an injury risk, no doubt, but if the Dolphins tight end can stay healthy he has top-five potential (but like Murray doesn’t actual rank in our top five). Cameron is projected to average fewer than two points per game than Jimmy Graham, the second tight end off the board, but is going seven rounds later in drafts. A full season could see Cameron return to his 2013 production (917 yards, 7 TDs) when he became a fantasy stud.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-breakout-stars Wed, 12 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[2015 Fantasy Football – sleepers, busts and breakout players.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Matt-Ryan-Falcons.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Fantasy football is back!<br /> <br /> With that in mind, over the next few days we will provide our picks for 2015 sleepers, busts and breakout players based PredictionMachine.com’s <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>2015 Fantasy Football Rankings</a>.<br /> <br /> Here is how we define each:<br /> <br /> <strong>Sleeper</strong>: A player not being drafted as a starter but should be.<br /> <br /> <strong>Bust</strong>: A player drafted as a starter but will disappoint.<br /> <br /> <strong>Breakout Player</strong>: A player we project to finish in the top five at their position but are not currently being drafted like a superstar.<br /> <br /> Note: Average draft position (ADP) is a composite of rankings from ESPN and Yahoo. Be sure to use the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>Fantasy Football Draft Machine</a> for an additional edge in all your drafts.<br /> <br /> Looking for a daily fantasy edge? Check out our <a href=”http://fantasy.predictionmachine.com”>optimal lineups and projections</a>.<br /> <br /> Previously: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-sleepers”>2015 Fantasy Sleepers</a>, now your 2015 Busts.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Matt Ryan</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 4,346.2 passing yards, 30.7 TDs, 14.3 INTs<br /> 2015 ADP: 7th quarterback, 56th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 12th quarterback, 78th overall<br /> <br /> Kyle Shanahan, Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator, likes to throw it deep downfield, which could spark big plays. The only problem with that plan, the Falcons have <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>one of the worst offensive lines</a> in the league. It is hard to throw a deep ball when you are on your back. With Julio Jones and Roddy White, it’s not hard to imagine Ryan as a top ten quarterback but we don’t want to pay the asking price when there are better options that will cost you less.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Matthew Stafford</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 4,170.2 passing yards, 30.0 TDs, 16.7 INTs<br /> 2015 ADP: 10th quarterback, 68th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 19th quarterback, 119th overall<br /> <br /> Here is the case for Stafford as a top ten quarterback: Megatron and Golden Tate. Fair enough, but did you know only five times in NFL history (per ESPN’s Stats & Info) has a player thrown for over 4,200 yards without topping 22 touchdowns? Stafford has accomplished that feat twice in the last three years. In his career, Stafford has only been a top five fantasy quarterback once.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Peyton Manning</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 4,100.7 passing yards, 36.1 TDs, 13.0 INTs<br /> 2015 ADP: 4th quarterback, 36th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 10th quarterback, 69th overall<br /> <br /> The future Hall of Famer was a first round pick a year ago and threw for 16 fewer touchdowns than his record breaking 2013 season (55 TDs). Manning’s disappointing end to the year (75 fantasy points over four weeks) has caused his draft stock to slip but not nearly enough. Manning is currently going as the fourth quarterback off the board. By our projections he is a top ten option in fantasy but because of the change in scheme under Gary Kubiak (more run orientated offense, than pass first) he should be going in the eighth round, not the fourth.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Alfred-Morris-Washington-Redskins-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Alfred Morris</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,070.5 rushing yards, 54.6 receiving yards, 11.0 total TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 12th running back, 30th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 22th running back, 45th overall<br /> <br /> Washington ranks as the 21st overall team in our Power Rankings with a defense that is <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-Preview-2015″>30th in passing efficiency</a>. The Redskins are projected to finish last in the NFC East with a losing record. It’s likely that Washington will be playing from behind this season meaning there will be limited touches for Morris – a serious problem for a back that isn’t involved in the passing game.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Carlos Hyde</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 933.1 rushing yards, 149.7 receiving yards, 10.8 total TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 17th running back, 37th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 26th running back, 50th overall<br /> <br /> Hyde is the starter now that Frank Gore is gone but the 49ers, like Washington, are not going to be good. In fact, the 49ers rank as a worse team than the Redskins. It is easy to picture a scenario where the Niners are trailing, therefore are forced to throw the ball and Hyde is replaced by Reggie Bush, a better pass catching option out of the backfield. Bad teams can produce good fantasy players but this seems like a risk with an unproven back.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Emmanuel-Sanders-Denver-Broncos-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Emmanuel Sanders</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 969.9 receiving yards, 8.3 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 13th receiver, 29th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 31st receiver, 86th overall<br /> <br /> Denver is expected to run the ball more this year and work out of a two tight end formation leaving Sanders playing exclusively out of the slot. None of which is good for the Broncos’ number two receiver, a player coming off a career year. Career seasons do not repeat, if you draft Sanders where he is currently going, you are just chasing the prior year’s stats.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Andre Johnson</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,007.7 receiving yards, 7.6 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 18th receiver, 42nd overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 34th receiver, 89th overall<br /> <br /> The Colts have the best offense in the AFC and everyone is expecting Johnson’s numbers to improve by playing with Andrew Luck. The former Texans’ touchdown total will bounce back (averaged 8.3 TDs from 2007-2010) but the yardage, as the No. 2 receiver behind T.Y. Hilton, won’t be enough to justify his high draft status.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Julius-Thomas-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Julius Thomas</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 581.0 receiving yards, 5.9 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 6th tight end, 67th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 15th tight end, 131st overall<br /> <br /> Thomas traded Peyton Manning for Blake Bortles. That pretty much says it all. We have such little faith in the Jags and Bortles that Thomas isn’t even worth drafting.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-busts Tue, 11 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[2015 Fantasy Football – sleepers, busts and breakout players.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Eli-manning-New-York-Giants.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Fantasy football is back!<br /> <br /> With that in mind, over the next few days we will provide our picks for 2015 sleepers, busts and breakout players based PredictionMachine.com’s <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/fantasy-football-rankings-experts-2015-season”>2015 Fantasy Football Rankings</a>.<br /> <br /> Here is how we define each:<br /> <br /> <strong>Sleeper</strong>: A player not being drafted as a starter but should be.<br /> <br /> <strong>Bust</strong>: A player drafted as a starter but will disappoint.<br /> <br /> <strong>Breakout Player</strong>: A player we project to finish in the top five at their position but are not currently being drafted like a superstar.<br /> <br /> Note: Average draft position (ADP) is a composite of rankings from ESPN and Yahoo. Be sure to use the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>Fantasy Football Draft Machine</a> for an additional edge in all your drafts.<br /> <br /> Looking for a daily fantasy edge? Check out our <a href=”http://fantasy.predictionmachine.com”>optimal lineups and projections</a>.<br /> <br /> First up, 2015 sleepers…<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Eli Manning</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 4,605.5 passing yards, 34.5 TDs, 15.5 INTs<br /> 2015 ADP: 12th quarterback, 79th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 8th quarterback, 60th overall<br /> <br /> You want a Manning on your team and this year it is Eli, not Peyton. The emergence of Odell Beckham made Eli fantasy relevant last year and everyone is waiting with bated breath to see what OBJ can do in a full season. The Giants’ signal caller won’t have to rely on just Beckham, Victor Cruz is expected to return healthy from a serious knee injury and the team gave Eli another receiving option in running back Shane Vereen. Eli is going four rounds later than Peyton but will finish with more fantasy points than his big brother.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Ryan Tannehill</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 3,984.6 passing yards, 30.1 TDs, 14.7 INTs<br /> 2015 ADP: 13th quarterback, 92th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 9th quarterback, 66th overall<br /> <br /> Last season, Tannehill set career highs in passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and rushing yards. The young gunslinger is expected to take another step forward in his second year in Bill Lazor’s offense. The <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview”>Dolphins are going to make the playoffs</a> and Tannehill is going to lead them there.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Lamar-Miller-Miami-Dolphins-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Lamar Miller</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,255.3 rushing yards, 324.0 receiving yards, 10.4 total TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 20th running back, 61st overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 10th running back, 20th overall<br /> <br /> There were seven games last season where Miller finished with 12 or fewer carries. He averaged just 13.5 attempts per game but finished as a top-10 fantasy back. For some reason the Dolphins starter is going in the 7th round in Yahoo drafts as the 20th back off the board.<br /> <br /> Maybe fantasy owners are concerned about Miller’s touches. Don’t be. Miami’s Head Coach Joe Philbin has said that <a href=”http://espn.go.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/15893/dolphins-coach-joe-philbin-open-to-lamar-miller-getting-more-carries”>Miller can handle a bigger workload</a>. Let’s hope fantasy owners don’t wise up and we can get a RB1 in the middle of the draft.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>C.J. Spiller</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 810.4 rushing yards, 343.1 receiving yards, 8.0 total TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 26th running back, 84th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 15th running back, 20th overall<br /> <br /> It is running back by committee in the Big Easy but that doesn’t worry us. Spiller is going to be heavily involved in the offense. Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and Pierre Thomas are all gone �“ they combined for 193 receptions last year �“ targets that have to go somewhere. When Spiller isn’t catching balls out of the backfield, he will be benefitting from one of the most improved offensive lines in the league. The addition of center Max Unger has given the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>Saints a top-10 line</a> that should open up holes for the speedy back.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/John-Brown-Arizona-Cardinals-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>John Brown</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,115.2 receiving yards, 8.2 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 46th receiver, 120th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 18th receiver, 59th overall<br /> <br /> Brown had a nice rookie season hauling in 48 passes for 696 yards and five touchdowns despite Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley under center for most of the season. A healthy Carson Palmer, plus the recent injury to Michael Floyd (hand) has set the table for a breakout season for the quick receiver.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Kendall Wright</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,062.1 receiving yards, 8.9 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 50th receiver, 127th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 21st receiver, 63rd overall<br /> <br /> No one is talking about Wright. The Titans’ receiver disappointed fantasy owners in 2014 catching 57 balls for 715 yards. Tennessee is a team in transition with a rookie quarterback under center, but Mariota is a huge upgrade for the team and for Wright. We don’t expect the Titans to be very good but Mariota has a chance to be fantasy relevant and so does Wright.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Charles Johnson</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 1,078.7 receiving yards, 7.2 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 41st receiver, 109th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 30th receiver, 80th overall<br /> <br /> Over the final seven games of the season Johnson caught 25 balls for 415 yards and two touchdowns. Those numbers didn’t set the world on fire but they were solid for a player in his debut season with a rookie quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater should continue to progress making Johnson more valuable and dependable to fantasy owners. Johnson is a solid WR3 or flex option in most leagues.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Delanie-Walker-Tennessee-Titans-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Delanie Walker</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 924.5 receiving yards, 5.6 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 12th tight end, 121st overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 7th tight end, 67th overall<br /> <br /> Like Kendall Wright, Walker’s value gets a big boost from playing with a quarterback (Marcus Mariota) we project to finish 15th among fantasy starters �“ ahead of one time fantasy stars Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer. Walker had the best season for a tight end in Titans’ franchise history (890 yards, four touchdowns) a year ago and this season should be even better.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Ladarius Green</strong></span></span></h2> 2015 projections: 796.0 receiving yards, 7.7 TDs<br /> 2015 ADP: 24th tight end, 138th overall<br /> 2015 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 9th tight end, 70th overall<br /> <br /> Green is a freak athlete who has four weeks (Antonio Gates is suspended for PEDs) to prove he can play. Rolling the dice on Green is risky but after Gronk there isn’t a lot of love about the tight end position.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-fantasy-football-sleepers Mon, 10 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Camp Competition �“ which receivers will start for the Eagles, Dolphins and Ravens?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Jordan-Matthews-Philadelphia-Eagles-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> In the lead up to the release of our 2015 NFL Preview we look at some of the most interesting position battles occurring at training camps around the league. We’ve looked at <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-Qaurterback-Position-Battles”>quarterbacks</a> and <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-Running-Back-Position-Battles”>running back</a>, now it’s receivers.<br /> <br /> The 2015 NFL Preview will be available, tomorrow, August 6th!<br /> <br /> <strong>Philadelphia Eagles</strong><br /> <br /> For the second year in a row the Eagles are trying to replace their No. 1 receiver after Pro Bowler Jeremy Maclin (85 receptions, 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns) was allowed to leave in free agency. The previous year they released DeSean Jackson. Fortunately for Philadelphia, the team has a collection of young talent at the position.<br /> <br /> Jordan Matthews, the second year player out of Vanderbilt, posted a strong rookie season with 67 receptions, 872 yards and eight touchdowns. Riley Cooper hasn’t lived up to his $25 million contract yet, but he still had 55 catches for 577 yards and three touchdowns last year. Then there is rookie Nelson Agholor. The first round pick is talented and will challenge for serious playing time.<br /> <br /> Seven players had 28 or more receptions last season for Philadelphia. The Eagles are likely to rotate wideouts meaning there will be a lot of targets to go around. However, Matthews is a top-15 fantasy option and Agholor is a potential sleeper pick.<br /> <br /> <strong>Projected 2015 Statistics</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Receiver</th> <th> Receptions</th> <th> Yards</th> <th> Touchdowns</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jordan Matthews</td> <td> 88.6</td> <td> 1,190.50</td> <td> 10.5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Nelson Agholor</td> <td> 60.3</td> <td> 910.3</td> <td> 5.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Riley Cooper</td> <td> 35.5</td> <td> 404.2</td> <td> 1.7</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> <strong>Miami Dolphins</strong><br /> <br /> The Dolphins remade their receiving corps. Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson are out. Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and first round pick DeVante Parker are in. Of course the team does have one holdover.<br /> <br /> Jarvis Landry had an impressive rookie season with 84 receptions, 758 yards and five touchdowns. We project the slot receiver to be one of four players with over <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>100 receptions</a> in 2015. Landry is the team’s best receiving option, after him it’s a toss-up.<br /> <br /> Stills had a nice season with the Saints �“ 63 receptions for 931 yards and three touchdowns. Greg Jennings will be 32 in the fall but can still be productive and Parker has talent but is dealing with a foot injury.<br /> <br /> There is a lot to like about the Dolphins receivers this season especially since Ryan Tannehill figures to take another step forward this season �“ projected as a top ten fantasy quarterback. Target Landry in fantasy drafts, but owning the other Dolphin receivers could prove frustrating.<br /> <br /> <strong>Projected 2015 Statistics</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Receiver</th> <th> Receptions</th> <th> Yards</th> <th> Touchdowns</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jarvis Landry</td> <td> 103.1</td> <td> 1037.7</td> <td> 8.8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kenny Stills</td> <td> 57.1</td> <td> 815.8</td> <td> 5.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Greg Jennings</td> <td> 59.5</td> <td> 638.8</td> <td> 5.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DeVante Parker</td> <td> 31.1</td> <td> 404.6</td> <td> 2.6</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <strong>Baltimore Ravens</strong><br /> <br /> Like in Philadelphia and Miami, the departure of a veteran receiver has created an opening for a starter with the first team offense. Torrey Smith is in San Francisco and the Ravens need to replace 767 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Steve Smith Sr. is the team’s No. 1 wideout but after him it’s all question marks.<br /> <br /> So who will lineup opposite of Mr. Smith? Baltimore used its first round pick on Breshad Perriman, a speedy receiver like Torrey Smith. Of course being a high draft pick doesn’t guarantee you a starting job. Marlon Brown and Kamar Aiken have each shown promise in limited roles.<br /> <br /> For our money, Smith and Perriman are the likely starters but neither projects as a top-30 receiver in fantasy.<br /> <br /> <strong>Projected 2015 Statistics</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Receiver</th> <th> Receptions</th> <th> Yards</th> <th> Touchdowns</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steve Smith</td> <td> 70.0</td> <td> 899.9</td> <td> 6.1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Breshad Perriman</td> <td> 62.2</td> <td> 842.9</td> <td> 6.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marlon Brown</td> <td> 40.3</td> <td> 467.3</td> <td> 3.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kamar Aiken</td> <td> 23.3</td> <td> 246.9</td> <td> 0.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-Wide-Receiver-Position-Battles Wed, 5 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Camp Competition �“ which running backs will start for the Cowboys, Rams and Browns?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Joseph-Randle-Dallas-Cowboys-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> In the lead up to the release of our 2015 NFL Preview we look at some of the most interesting position battles occurring at training camps around the league. We’ve looked at <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2015-Qaurterback-Position-Battles”>quarterbacks</a>, now it’s running backs.<br /> <br /> The 2015 NFL Preview will be available on August 6th.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Dallas Cowboys</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> DeMarco Murray, the Offensive Player of the Year, in an unprecedented move, was allowed to leave in free agency. Dallas, with the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>best offensive line</a> in the league, isn’t overly concerned about being able to replace the All-Pro running back. The Cowboys are banking on their line, plus a combination of Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar and Darren McFadden to pick up the slack left behind by Murray �“ who won the NFL’s rushing title a year ago.<br /> <br /> Hopes are high for Randle. In limited touches last year, the third-year back averaged 6.7 yards per carry. According to Randle, DeMarco Murray <a href=”http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/28/joseph-randle-demarco-murray-left-a-lot-of-meat-on-the-bone-last-year/”>left a lot of meat on the bone</a> last year. If Randle can <a href=”http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2015/02/04/off-the-field-issues-once-again-plague-cowboys-player-joseph-randle/”>avoid off the field incidents</a> he will the starter in Week 1. Dunbar figures to factor into the passing game and McFadden is already injured �“ last year was the first season he played all 16 games.<br /> <br /> If Randle gets the touches, Dallas could produce another top-ten fantasy back. If not, it’ll be running back roulette in the lone star state for fantasy owners.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Randle_Mcfadden_dunbar.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>St. Louis Rams</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> There are two promising young backs on St. Louis’ roster, one (Todd Gurley) isn’t healthy enough to play and the other (Tre Mason) isn’t getting any attention. In each of the past two seasons, the Rams have had a rookie lead the team in rushing (Zac Stacy in 2013, Mason in 2014). Could Gurley make it a third straight year?<br /> <br /> The Rams used the tenth pick in this year’s draft to take Gurley but the Georgia product is still recovering from an ACL injury. This potentially opens the door for Mason who led the Rams in rushing yards (765), yards per carry (4.3) and total touchdowns (5) last season. Unfortunately for Mason, Head Coach Jeff Fisher called Gurley the running back of the future �“ it’s just a matter of when the future starts.<br /> <br /> We expect both backs to produce when they get playing time. If you combined their projected totals, they would be the highest scoring running back in fantasy. Separately, Gurley ranks 20th and Mason 33rd among backs. For fantasy owners, it could be frustrating to own any members of the Rams backfield.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Gurley_Mason-2.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Cleveland Browns</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Browns’ offense is expected to be run-oriented in the fall. A two-man backfield has become a three-man committee. Second year running backs Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell will be joined by third round draft pick Duke Johnson.<br /> <br /> Crowell didn’t lead Cleveland in carries or yards last season but he is currently No. 1 on the depth chart. It’ll be difficult for either West (calf cramps) or Johnson (hamstring) to supplant Crowell as both are dealing with injuries early in camp.<br /> <br /> Crowell will be the primary back and Johnson projects to be the team’s third-down specialist, specifically in passing situations. There could be less playing time this year for West and if Johnson excels with his touches, the rookie could siphon carries from Crowell.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Crowell_West_Johnson-3.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-Running-Back-Position-Battles Tue, 4 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Camp Competition �“ which quarterbacks start for the Texans, Bills and Eagles?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Mallett-Hoyer-Houston-Texans.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> In the lead up to the release of our 2015 NFL Preview we look at some of the most interesting position battles occurring at training camps around the league. First up, quarterbacks.<br /> <br /> The 2015 NFL Preview will be available on August 6th.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Houston Texans</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Texans continue to search for an answer at quarterback. Houston won nine games last year despite starting a combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mallett, Tom Savage and Case Keenum. Mallett is in the mix to start again this year but Houston signed Brian Hoyer to a two-year deal worth $10.5 million in the offseason.<br /> <br /> Hoyer had a 10-6 career record as the starter for the Cleveland Browns. He has experience with Bill O’Brien’s offense from their time together in New England but he did lose his starting spot last year because of bad play.<br /> <br /> Mallett has room to grow but with only 79 career pass attempts, Hoyer, the more seasoned signal caller, is likely to start Week 1. Both quarterbacks are expected to see action throughout the season.<br /> <br /> <strong>Projected 2015 Statistics</strong><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Hoyer_Mallett-2.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 311px;” /><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Quarterback</th> <th> Passing Yards</th> <th> Touchdowns</th> <th> Interceptions</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brian Hoyer</td> <td> 2432.5</td> <td> 17.9</td> <td> 10.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ryan Mallett</td> <td> 1112.3</td> <td> 8.1</td> <td> 5.0</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Buffalo Bills</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The options at quarterback aren’t great for new Head Coach Rex Ryan. EJ Manuel is the incumbent but the former first round pick has struggled adjusting to the speed of the NFL. The Bills traded for Matt Cassel in the offseason hoping the one-time Pro Bowler could be a stopgap, as Manuel remains a work in progress.<br /> <br /> Unfortunately for the franchise, neither Manuel nor Cassel ­­­has stepped up in camp. The pair combined to go <a href=”http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000505664/article/manuel-cassel-struggle-through-bills-firstteam-reps”>1-for-8 on passes</a> with the first team offense this past Saturday. If your quarterback can’t be accurate, perhaps he can be athletic. Some Bills fans think that Tyrod Taylor could be the answer under center but the ex-Raven is still a major unknown.<br /> <br /> Despite looking out of sorts thus far in camp, Manuel is the projected starter. In our current simulations we have Taylor as the backup. After OTAs, Cassel was in danger of not only losing the starting gig but also his roster spot.<br /> <br /> <strong>Projected 2015 Statistics</strong><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Taylor_Manuel.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 311px;” /><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Quarterback</th> <th> Passing Yards</th> <th> Touchdowns</th> <th> Interceptions</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> EJ Manuel</td> <td> 2,905.20</td> <td> 20.2</td> <td> 15.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tyrod Taylor</td> <td> 446.6</td> <td> 3.1</td> <td> 2.3</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Philadelphia Eagles</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Chip Kelly traded for Sam Bradford back in March, signed Tim Tebow in April and has a pair of former USC quarterbacks, Mark Sanchez and Matt Barkley, on the roster. Though there is a gaggle of passers on the team, Bradford and Sanchez are the favorites to start.<br /> <br /> Bradford is attempting to come back from two ACL tears in the last two seasons. Sanchez won five games as the Eagles starter a year ago but is currently No. 2 on the depth chart. A healthy Bradford could make Kelly’s offense really hum, but injuries have always been a problem for 2010 first overall pick.<br /> <br /> By our numbers, Bradford is the better option at quarterback but like last year, expect to see Sanchez under center at some point. Bradford is projected to play in 12 games. Health is a skill, one that Bradford does not possess.<br /> <br /> <strong>Projected 2015 Statistics</strong><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Sanchez_Bradford.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 311px;” /><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Quarterback</th> <th> Passing Yards</th> <th> Touchdowns</th> <th> Interceptions</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sam Bradford</td> <td> 3,034.60</td> <td> 23.3</td> <td> 10.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Mark Sanchez</td> <td> 1,165.60</td> <td> 7.6</td> <td> 4.5</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-Qaurterback-Position-Battles Mon, 3 Aug 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[<em>2015 NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Green-Bay-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The 2015 NFL Preview including playoff probabilities, fantasy projections and game predictions will be available starting August 6th. To whet your appetite for all things football, we present each NFL team’s overall ranking based on player impact scores.<br /> <br /> An impact score (0 – 10 scale) is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Previous Rankings: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>offensive skill positions</a> (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends), <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>Offensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/defensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/linebacker-position-power-rankings-2015″>linebackers</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/secondary-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive secondary</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Defensive-power-rankings-2015″>overall offense</a> and <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Offensive-power-rankings-2015″>overall defense</a>.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Highlights</strong><br /> <br /> Which team is the best in the NFL? The Green Bay Packers with an average impact score of 8.34 out of 10. The Cheeseheads have the No. 1 group of skill position players, a top five offensive line and one of the most improved defenses in the league.<br /> <br /> The Packers are such a talented team that you could replace Aaron Rodgers (9.5 out of 10) with an adequate starter (8.0 out of 10) and Green Bay would still rank as a top three overall team.<br /> <br /> The lowest ranked playoff team from a year ago is the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have the second worst collection of talent of any team in the NFL and are projected to <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Steelers-Lions-Cardinals-Will-Miss-Playoffs”>miss the playoffs</a>.<br /> <br /> The best non-playoff teams from last year are the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings. Each team ranks in the top ten and the Dolphins and Vikings will <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/New-Playoff-Teams-In-2015″>make the playoffs</a> this season.<br /> <br /> The <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jacksonville-Jaguars-Are-On-The-Clock”>Jags are on the clock</a>; hopefully a top pick will improve the least talented team in football.<br /> <br /> <strong>Team Power Rankings</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Impact Score Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8.34</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.32</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.30</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.28</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 8.25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.24</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 8.18</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 8.16</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.16</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 8.16</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 8.12</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 8.12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 8.11</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 8.07</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 8.07</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 8.06</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 8.05</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 8.05</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 8.03</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 8.02</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 8.02</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 8.00</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 7.97</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 7.97</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.92</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 7.89</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.82</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Overall-Team-Rankings-Impact-Score-2015 Wed, 29 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Steelers-Roethlisberger-Tomlin.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous Articles: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>Landry over 100 receptions</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>Peterson is No. 1 running back</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.net/test/Marcus-Mariota-Is-Top-Rookie-Fantasy-Quarterback”>Mariota over Winston</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/New-Playoff-Teams-In-2015″>New Playoff Teams</a><br /> <br /> <strong>Prediction: Steelers, Lions and Cardinals will miss the playoffs</strong><br /> <br /> According to NFL Media research, at least four new teams have made the playoffs every year since the NFL adopted the 12-team format back in 1990. Last season was no different as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys all reached the postseason after missing the playoffs in 2013. All of these teams were beneficiaries of some form of luck but unlike a season ago, the Steelers, Lions and Cardinals aren’t as likely to get the same breaks. We expect regression to the mean and for those three franchises to miss the playoffs.<br /> <br /> One way to tell whether a team was lucky or not is to compare their actual win-loss record to what their expected win-loss record was based on Bill James’ Pythagorean Expectation, which examines the number of points a team scores and the points it allows. By this metric, the Steelers (1.4 wins), Lions (1.8 wins) and Cardinals (2.7 wins) all performed better than one would expect based on point differential. Arizona outscored opponents by eleven points, indicative of an 8-8 team, but defied the odds and won 11 games.<br /> <br /> Another common form of luck is record in one-score games. A season can swing on how many games a team wins that were decided by seven points or fewer. All three teams had winning records in such games combining to go 14-5 in games decided by one touchdown or less last season. Of course, that type of performance isn’t consistent from year to year. The Lions were 6-1 in one score games last season but a dreadful 6-14 in the previous two campaigns.<br /> <br /> Luck takes all forms including the ever-fickle turnover. Randomness is common in turnover differential and teams rarely maintain a good (or bad) performance, as teams tend to regress to the mean over time. The Chiefs were +18 (made the playoffs) in 2013 but were -9 (missed the playoffs) in 2014. The Cardinals were +8 and the Lions were +7, both are likely to regress in 2015. The Steelers weren’t all that fortunate with turnovers but they were lucky to be one of just three teams in the league that didn’t allow any points to be scored off of turnovers.<br /> <br /> Luck isn’t the only reason these teams will miss the playoffs but it will be a contributing factor. Pittsburgh is projected to finish third in the division with a 7.4-8.6 record (31.5 percent chance to make the playoffs). Detroit has a 21.6 percent chance to reach the postseason, but is projected to finish third in the NFC North with a 7.3-8.7 record. Arizona is also projected to finish third in its division with a 7.3-8.7 record and has only a 20.5 percent chance to return to postseason play.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Steelers-Lions-Cardinals-Will-Miss-Playoffs Mon, 20 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Broncos-Seahawks.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous Articles: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>Landry over 100 receptions</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>Peterson is No. 1 running back</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.net/test/Marcus-Mariota-Is-Top-Rookie-Fantasy-Quarterback”>Mariota over Winston</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/New-Playoff-Teams-In-2015″>New Playoff Teams</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Steelers-Lions-Cardinals-Will-Miss-Playoffs”>Steelers Miss Playoffs</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Most-Likely-Super-Bowl-50″>Most Likely Super Bowl</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jacksonville-Jaguars-Are-On-The-Clock”>Jags on the Clock</a><br /> <br /> <strong>Prediction: Offensive Lines Matter</strong><br /> <br /> Quarterbacks get the <a href=”http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000478529″>big contracts</a>, running backs are drafted first overall in fantasy and receivers <a href=”http://www.nfl.com/videos/new-york-giants/0ap3000000433606/Beckham-catches-worldwide-attention”>‘catch’ worldwide attention</a>. Of course none of that is possible without the big fellas up front.<br /> <br /> Offensive lines matter. When you have a great collection of talent in the trenches common wisdom in the NFL goes out the window. Jerry Jones invested three first round picks in his offensive line in the last four drafts and then let the NFL’s rushing leader from last year leave in free agency without replacing him because Dallas’ line is that good.<br /> <br /> The Cowboys line may be the envy of the league but two other teams, Seattle and Denver, are expected to take a step back this season due to offensive line issues.<br /> <br /> Over the past two seasons, the Seahawks and Broncos have each won 25 regular-season games, the most in the NFL in that span. Both teams have benefited from above average, and with the Broncos elite, offensive line play. The 2015 season could be different.<br /> <br /> Last season, Seattle led the NFL in rushing (2,762 yards), rushing touchdowns (20) and averaged a league best 5.3 yards per carry. As part of the Jimmy Graham trade the Seahawks dealt their best offensive lineman, and the top ranked center in the league (9.0 out of 10 impact score), Max Unger to the Saints. The defending NFC Champions now have the second <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>worst collection of talent</a> on the offensive line in the NFL.<br /> <br /> The Seahawks are projected to rush for 2,401.9 yards and average 4.8 yards per carry. Impressive numbers and not unexpected given how efficient Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson are at rushing the ball. However, in a game where <a href=”http://www.seahawks.com/news/2015/02/01/seahawks-come-yard-short-loss-patriots-super-bowl-xlix”>one yard can determine the Super Bowl</a>, regression in rushing efficiency could spell misfortune.<br /> <br /> Denver is also facing issues on the offensive line. All-Pro left tackle Ryan Clady is out for the season with a torn ACL. The team has a new coach, a new system and now will have to shuffle a thin line in front of an aging Peyton Manning. Denver’s offensive line ranking has swung from 4th in 2014 to 29th heading into 2015.<br /> <br /> Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme has produced positive rushing results for other franchises and will do so in Mile High. The Broncos, as a team, are projected to rush for 1,891.4 yards and 14.2 touchdowns, which is in line with last year’s production. The real concern for this line is pass protection.<br /> <br /> Peyton Manning was sacked 17 times last season, the lowest total for any quarterback that attempted more than 300 passes. Manning keeps his jersey clean partly because of his 2.2 second average release time, but the future Hall of Famer’s quick reads won’t be enough this fall. The Broncos, with a deteriorating offensive line, are expected to see its sacks allowed total double. Manning is projected to throw for 4,071.1 yards and 35.7 touchdowns; each would mark his lowest totals as a Bronco.<br /> <br /> Don’t feel too bad for Seattle (82.1 percent) or Denver (72. percent), both are exceedingly likely to make the playoffs. Yet, poor offensive lines could keep each from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Most-Likely-Super-Bowl-50″>most likely Super Bowl</a> consists of the losers from last year’s conference championship games.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Offensive-Lines-Matter-Broncos-Seahawks Wed, 22 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Blake-Bortles-Jacksonville-Jaguars.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous Articles: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>Landry over 100 receptions</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>Peterson is No. 1 running back</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.net/test/Marcus-Mariota-Is-Top-Rookie-Fantasy-Quarterback”>Mariota over Winston</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/New-Playoff-Teams-In-2015″>New Playoff Teams</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Steelers-Lions-Cardinals-Will-Miss-Playoffs”>Steelers Miss Playoffs</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Most-Likely-Super-Bowl-50″>Most Likely Super Bowl</a><br /> <br /> <strong>Prediction: Jacksonville is on the clock</strong><br /> <br /> Teams around the NFL are optimistic entering the new season. Free agency, coaching changes and the NFL Draft has given franchises reasons to expect bigger and better things in 2015. Unfortunately, for one fan base, there are dark clouds on the horizon.<br /> <br /> Actually there have been dark clouds over Jacksonville for some time. The Jags have not been to the playoffs since 2007. In that time the team has had a losing record in six of the last seven seasons. The franchises best finish was an 8-8 campaign in 2010.<br /> <br /> Why do the Jags continue to struggle year after year? Poor quarterback play. Over the last five seasons Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Blaine Gabbert, Luke McCown, David Garrard, Todd Bouman and Trent Edwards have all started.<br /> <br /> Bortles, the third overall pick in the 2014 class, was disappointing in his rookie season. While young quarterbacks do improve, we have no reason to believe Bortles is a franchise quarterback. Before the 2014 draft, Bortles earned an <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2014-quarterback-rankings-projections-manziel-bortles-bridgewater”>impact score of 7.8 out of 10</a> �“ indicative of replacement level talent. Bortles completed 58.9 percent of his passes for 11 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He was also sacked a league-high 55 times in his first season.<br /> <br /> This upcoming year doesn’t look much better. We project the Jags’ passer to throw for 2,958.5 yards (the lowest total for a quarterback projected to attempt more than 500 passes), 18.5 touchdowns and 17.0 interceptions (second most behind rookie Jameis Winston). A positive touchdown-to-interception ratio is a modest improvement but not enough to make Jacksonville competitive in the AFC South.<br /> <br /> Jacksonville is projected to finish last in the AFC South with a 4.5-11.5 record (the lowest win total in the NFL). The Jags have a 1.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, the only team in the NFL without at least a five percent chance to reach the postseason.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Bottom 5 NFL Teams</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Record</th> <th> Playoff Probability</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 4.5-11.5</td> <td> 1.6%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 5.8-10.2</td> <td> 8.2%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 6.5-9.5</td> <td> 11.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 6.6-9.4</td> <td> 13.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 7.0-9.0</td> <td> 23.0%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Jacksonville-Jaguars-Are-On-The-Clock Tue, 21 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Aaron-Rodgers-Green-Bay-Packers-2.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous Articles: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>Landry over 100 receptions</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>Peterson is No. 1 running back</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.net/test/Marcus-Mariota-Is-Top-Rookie-Fantasy-Quarterback”>Mariota over Winston</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/New-Playoff-Teams-In-2015″>New Playoff Teams</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Steelers-Lions-Cardinals-Will-Miss-Playoffs”>Steelers Miss Playoffs</a><br /> <br /> <strong>Prediction: Last Year’s Conference Championship Losers Will Make the Super Bowl</strong><br /> <br /> Let’s quickly review how the 2014 season ended for the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts. Both teams reached their respective conference championships and both teams exited the playoffs in brutal fashion.<br /> <br /> Green Bay was on the losing end of the biggest comeback in conference championship history. The Packers led 19-7 with three minutes to play and were <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13390″>99 percent likely to win</a> before Seattle scored 15 points in 44 seconds to force overtime. Seattle won the game on a 35-yard touchdown on the first series in overtime.<br /> <br /> What is worse, blowing a big lead or never having a chance to win? The latter was the fate of the Colts. Indy suffered the second most lopsided defeat in AFC Championship game history. New England controlled every facet of the game winning 45-7. The Patriots spent more time being projected as 99 percent likely to win than Indianapolis did <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13391″>keeping it competitive</a> (at least a 25 percent chance of winning).<br /> <br /> Time heals all wounds and with the 2015 NFL season quickly approaching, the Packers and Colts are once again favorites to compete for the Lombardi Trophy. Unlike last year, Green Bay and Indianapolis will play in the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> The Packers have had little roster turnover in the offseason and the offense is expected to have the same 11 starters from last year. That continuity is key; Green Bay led the league in scoring in the regular season (486 points) in 2014 and is projected to do so once again. Green Bay is 82.7 percent likely to reach the postseason for a seventh straight year and 63.4 percent likely to win the NFC North for a fifth straight season.<br /> <br /> Green Bay was about consistency in the offseason; Indy was about filling holes on their roster. The Colts added offensive lineman Todd Herremans, linebacker Trent Cole, defensive lineman Kendall Langford and former offensive stars in running back Frank Gore and receiver Andre Johnson, among others. Of course, this team will only go as far as Andrew Luck takes them. Already considered one of the best quarterbacks in the game, Luck is poised to take <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>another step forward</a> this season, which is a terrifying thought for an opposing defense.<br /> <br /> Indy is 79.0 percent likely to win the AFC South and 87.6 percent likely to make the playoffs. The Colts actually reach the Super Bowl more often than (26.5 percent compared to 24.4 percent) the Packers but Green Bay is the more likely champion (14.8 percent compared to 14.4 percent).<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Most-Likely-Super-Bowl-50 Mon, 20 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Ryan-Tannehill-Miami-Dolphins-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous Articles: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>Landry over 100 receptions</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>Peterson is No. 1 running back</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.net/test/Marcus-Mariota-Is-Top-Rookie-Fantasy-Quarterback”>Mariota over Winston</a><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Prediction: Dolphins and Vikings will make the playoffs</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Every year there is considerable turnover among playoff teams. On average, over the last 15 years, half the teams that participate in the NFL Playoffs were not in the postseason the year before. Two teams, the Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings, which were on the outside looking in a season ago, will play past Week 17 of the regular-season.<br /> <br /> The easiest way for a team to make the playoffs is to win their division. The New England Patriots have won the AFC East in 11 of the past 12 seasons, but the Dolphins took the division crown in 2008 (Brady missed the season due to ACL injury) and will once again in 2015. A perfect storm of events has opened a window for Miami to once again sit atop the division. Tom Brady’s suspension and the departure of Darrelle Revis have weakened the Patriots on both sides of the ball while the Dolphins are expected to improve. Ryan Tannehill should take another step forward in his second year in Bill Lazor’s system and the addition of Ndamukong Suh has helped Miami improve from <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Defensive-power-rankings-2015″>26th to 4th</a> in our defensive rankings.<br /> <br /> Miami and New England actually are projected to finish with the same record (9.2-6.8), but the Dolphins have a greater chance to win the division (39.9 percent compared to 35.8 percent). Of course, this is dependent on Brady being suspended for the full four games. If the Patriots starter has his suspension reduced then the Dolphins will become less likely to win the AFC East.<br /> <br /> Shifting to the NFC, Minnesota was 7-9 last season and finished third in the division. Of course that was without one of the best running backs in NFL history. The return of Adrian Peterson, projected to finish as the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>No. 1 running back in fantasy</a>, isn’t the only reason why the Vikings will be back in the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Peterson no longer has to carry the offense on his own. For the first time in a long time, Minnesota has a true franchise quarterback. Over the final five games of last season, Teddy Bridgewater completed 72 percent of his passes, throwing eight touchdowns and averaging 246 yards per game. Mike Zimmer has also built the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Defensive-power-rankings-2015″>best defense in the division</a> with young impact players at every level.<br /> <br /> Green Bay is projected to win the division for a fifth straight year but if the ball bounces right, the Vikings season finale in Lambeau could decide the division title. Minnesota has a 51.0 percent chance to reach the postseason.<br /> <br /> The next most likely teams to make this year’s playoffs that missed last year’s postseason are (in order) �“ the Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, all three teams made the playoffs in 2013.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/New-Playoff-Teams-In-2015 Fri, 17 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Adrian-Peterson-Vikings.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous Articles: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>Landry over 100 receptions</a><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Prediction: Adrian Peterson is the No. 1 running back in fantasy</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Last year’s No. 1 overall fantasy pick burned owners. Peterson only played one game due to an indefinite suspension for violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy. We understand if you are hesitant to draft a 30-year old back with over 2,000 career carries that didn’t play last season but Peterson will be the No. 1 running back in fantasy.<br /> <br /> First, he has already set a precedent for bouncing back. Following his ACL tear in 2011, Peterson rushed for 2,097 yards, averaged 6.0 yards per attempt and scored 12 rushing touchdowns. This year he isn’t trying to return from a devastating injury but still has the motivation to prove the doubters wrong.<br /> <br /> Minnesota used a running back by committee last year. Matt Asiata and Jerrick McKinnon combined to rush for 1,108 yards and nine touchdowns. The Vikings duo also caught 71 passes for 447 yards and a touchdown. If you combined Asiata and McKinnon into one player, they would have been a top ten running back in fantasy. No one believes either back is as good as AP.<br /> <br /> Peterson will also benefit from an offense that involves running backs in the passing game. Per Matthew Berry’s 100 Facts, in Norv Turner’s final three years in San Diego, only the Saints had more targets and receptions to their running backs than the Chargers.<br /> <br /> Peterson is projected to carry the ball 301.8 times for 1,438.6 yards and 14.3 touchdowns. The Vikings All-Pro back will catch 37.1 balls for 287.3 yards and 1.9 touchdowns.<br /> <br /> 2015 is shaping up to be another amazing season for the future Hall of Famer.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Top 5 Fantasy Running Backs</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Rush Yards</th> <th> Rush TDs</th> <th> Receiving Yards</th> <th> Receiving TDs</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Adrian Peterson</td> <td> 1,438.60</td> <td> 14.3</td> <td> 287.3</td> <td> 1.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Eddie Lacy</td> <td> 1,439.30</td> <td> 11.1</td> <td> 324.1</td> <td> 3.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marshawn Lynch</td> <td> 1,240.50</td> <td> 12.1</td> <td> 332.7</td> <td> 2.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jamaal Charles</td> <td> 1,117.40</td> <td> 10.1</td> <td> 440.5</td> <td> 4.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Le’Veon Bell</td> <td> 1,104.20</td> <td> 9.3</td> <td> 499.1</td> <td> 2.9</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy Thu, 9 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/NFL-Tennessee-Titans-Marcus-Mariota.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous Articles: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers”>Landry over 100 receptions</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-Is-No-1-Running-Back-Fantasy”>Peterson is No. 1 running back</a><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Prediction: Marcus Mariota, not Jameis Winston, is the top rookie quarterback in fantasy </strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were the first players off the board in the NFL Draft but which one should be drafted first in your fantasy league?<br /> <br /> Not all rookie quarterbacks are fantasy relevant in their first season. Winston and Mariota each has the potential to succeed but the latter has a chance to be a fantasy stud.<br /> <br /> The NFL is a passing league but often rookie quarterbacks become fantasy starters by scoring points with their legs. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson all racked up rushing yards and touchdowns to their first year to become fantasy relevant.<br /> <br /> Mariota is an excellent runner. At Oregon, the Titans quarterback had over 700 rushing yards in each season and averaged 6.6 yards per carry in his college career. We project Tennessee’s mobile quarterback to rush for 447.6 yards and 2.2 touchdowns in his rookie season. Mariota’s rushing total is the fourth most among quarterbacks behind Russell Wilson (651.1 yards), Colin Kaepernick (588.1 yards) and Cam Newton (544.1 yards).<br /> <br /> Tampa Bay’s rookie quarterback is not as fleet of foot as Mariota. Winston topped 200 rushing yards in his freshmen year at Florida State but only managed 65 rushing yards on 57 carries last season for the Noles. Winston is projected to have 193.0 rushing yards and 1.9 touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Winston does have an edge in the passing game with Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson as receiving threats, but Mariota closes the gap by being a better overall quarterback. In our analysis of the 2015 NFL Draft, Mariota received an impact score of <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-quarterback-rankings-projections-winston-mariota-petty”>9.5 out of 10</a> (star player), while Winston earned a mere 8.1 out of 10 (just an adequate starter).<br /> <br /> Mariota’s projected to throw for 3,807.9 passing yards, 25.8 touchdowns and 14.5 interceptions. We anticipate Winston to accumulate 4,147.8 passing yards, 26.3 touchdowns and 20.8 interceptions (the most in the NFL). The numbers are similar with the biggest difference being the turnovers.<br /> <br /> Mariota’s projected statistics make him the 14th best fantasy quarterback. He ranks ahead of Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick and Jay Cutler, all players currently being drafted as potential starters.<br /> <br /> What makes Mariota special and gives him a chance to be a fantasy stud is that on a per game basis, his fantasy output is just one point less than Peyton Manning, which would make him a top ten quarterback.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Top 5 Fantasy Quarterbacks �“ plus Mariota and Winston</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Passing Yards</th> <th> Pass TDs</th> <th> Rushing Yards</th> <th> Rush TDs</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> Andrew Luck</td> <td> 4,831.4</td> <td> 39.2</td> <td> 253.4</td> <td> 3.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> Aaron Rodgers</td> <td> 4,222.7</td> <td> 37.3</td> <td> 254.4</td> <td> 2.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> Cam Newton</td> <td> 4,016.6</td> <td> 28.0</td> <td> 544.1</td> <td> 4.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> Drew Brees</td> <td> 4,442.5</td> <td> 35.5</td> <td> 75.7</td> <td> 1.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> Ben Roethlisberger</td> <td> 4,559.7</td> <td> 34.6</td> <td> 85.7</td> <td> 0.8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> Marcus Mariota</td> <td> 3,807.9</td> <td> 25.8</td> <td> 447.6</td> <td> 2.2</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> Jameis Winston</td> <td> 4,148.8</td> <td> 26.3</td> <td> 193.0</td> <td> 1.9</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Marcus-Mariota-Is-Top-Rookie-Fantasy-Quarterback Fri, 10 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Dez Bryant just signed a new contract, what impact does the star receiver have on the Dallas Cowboys?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/dez-bryant-cowboys-49ers-1.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The Dallas Cowboys and Dez Bryant agreed to a new deal Wednesday. The two-time Pro Bowl receiver signed a five-year contract worth $70 million. Bryant had tweeted that if a new deal were not done he would skip training camp and possibly miss regular-season games.<br /> <br /> In Bryant’s five seasons with Dallas, the receiver has caught 381 passes for 5,424 yards and 56 touchdowns. No player in team history has more catches, yards or touchdowns than Bryant in the first five years of his career.<br /> <br /> Clearly, Bryant has had an impact on the franchise and if Dallas had failed to sign their star receiver the 2015 season could have looked a lot different.<br /> <br /> With Bryant playing a full season, Dallas is projected to have an average record of 8.9 wins and 7.1 losses. The Cowboys finish second in the NFC East but earn the first Wild Card spot.<br /> <br /> Without Bryant, in the worst-case scenario the pass catcher skips the entire season, Dallas’ would have a losing record (7.9 wins, 8.1 losses) and would miss the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Even if Bryant were to only miss the first two games of the season, each game skipped would have cost the receiver $754,000, his absence would have been felt.<br /> <br /> In Week 1, at home against the New York Giants, with Bryant, Dallas is projected to win 60 percent of the time. In Week 2, again with Bryant starting, Dallas has a 46 percent chance to win on the road in Philadelphia. If Bryant were to hold out, Dallas’ win percent against the Giants in Week 1 drops to 55 percent and the Cowboys become longshots (38 percent) to beat the Eagles in Week 2.<br /> <br /> Luckily, for America’s Team, Bryant will be suited up on Sundays this fall and the possible doomsday scenarios were avoided.<br /> <br /> Bryant is projected to lead the Cowboys back to the postseason with 100.6 receptions for 1,516.4 receiving yards and 13.6 touchdowns.<br /> <br /> <strong><span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”>Impact of Dez Bryant</span></span></strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Games Missed</th> <th> Dallas’ Record</th> <th> Make Playoffs?</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 2 Games</td> <td> 8.8-7.2</td> <td> Yes</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> 4 Games</td> <td> 8.6-7.4</td> <td> Yes</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Full Season</td> <td> 7.9-8.1</td> <td> No</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Impact-Of-Dez-Bryant-Dallas-Cowboys Thu, 16 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Jarvis-Landry-Miami-Dolphins-NFL.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th �“ 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous articles: <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a>, <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football”>Luck highest scorer in fantasy</a><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Prediction: Jarvis Landry will catch 100+ receptions</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Jarvis who? Landry is not a household name like college teammate Odell Beckham Jr. (even though he can make the same <a href=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2pQ_ZkgnQc”>ridiculous catches</a>) or Mike Evans, two other rookies that had breakout seasons last year. However, Landry is a receiver you should familiarize yourself with.<br /> <br /> Miami’s slot receiver finished with 84 receptions in his first season, good for 14th among receivers and second among rookies. Landry’s per game targets increased from five in the Dolphins first eight games to nine in the second half of the season.<br /> <br /> Landry is projected to catch 105.9 balls for 1,084.6 yards and 9.0 touchdowns. ESPN ranks the former LSU product as the 30th best receiver entering the 2015 season. By our numbers, Landry is a top 15 receiver and even more valuable in a points-per-reception format.<br /> <br /> The other members of the 100-reception club are Antonio Brown (115.0), Calvin Johnson (103.9) and Dez Bryant (100.6).<br /> <br /> The better known members of Landry’s draft class, Beckham and Evans, are each projected to finish in the top ten among receivers in fantasy points. The Eagles Jordan Matthews is projected as a top 15 pass catcher in his second season and Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins and John Brown, all rookies last year, are top 30 receivers.<br /> <br /> What rookie receiver can have an immediate impact this season?<br /> <br /> Oakland’s Amari Cooper is projected to finish 21st overall among receivers in fantasy points with 94.4 receptions, 1,020.4 yards and 8.3 touchdowns. Cooper, the fourth overall pick, instantly becomes the Raiders top receiving threat and with second-year quarterback Derek Carr expected to take a step forward, the rookie receiver is poised to have a breakout season.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Jarvis-Landry-100-Reception-Receivers Thu, 9 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Bold Predictions �“ an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Andrew-Luck-Indianapolis-Colts(1).jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Each day, over the next two weeks (July 13th – 24th), we will reveal an interesting player or team prediction for the 2015 NFL season. The first five articles of the series will have a fantasy focus while the next five will be bold predictions for the upcoming season.<br /> <br /> Previous article: <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Bold-Prediction-Jeremy-Hill-Will-Lead-the-NFL-in-Rushing”>Hill leads NFL in rushing</a><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Prediction: Andrew Luck is the highest scoring player in fantasy</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Last year, we predicted Luck would be a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-fantasy-football-breakout-stars”>breakout player</a>, a player we projected to finish in the top five at his position but was not being drafted like a superstar. Last August, Luck was being picked in the fourth round or later. Those that took our fantasy advice and drafted Luck were not disappointed.<br /> <br /> Luck had a career-high in completions (380), attempts (616), completion percentage (61.7), passing yards (4,761) and passing touchdowns (40). Luck also got you fantasy points with his legs rushing for 273 yards and three touchdowns.<br /> <br /> ESPN has Aaron Rodgers ranked as the top fantasy quarterback heading into 2015 but here is why Luck will best the reigning NFL MVP at his position and finish as the top scoring player in fantasy.<br /> <br /> Luck is durable, he hasn’t missed a game in three seasons and he isn’t projected to miss any time this fall. Health is a skill, one of many that Luck possesses.<br /> <br /> The Colts wanted to add balance to their offense, so they signed Frank Gore as an upgrade at running back. An improved rushing attack is a compliment, not an impediment, to the passing game. As a team, Indy is projected to rush for 1,783.5 yards, up from 1,612 yards the Colts totaled last year when Trent Richardson was their leading rusher. Luck is projected to attempt 612 passes, the most in the NFL and it would be the third time in four years that the Pro Bowler has topped 600 passing attempts.<br /> <br /> In addition to Gore, Indy gave Luck more another receiving threats by adding Andre Johnson and first round pick Phillip Dorsett. The pair join T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen in one of the most <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>formidable receiving groups</a> in football.<br /> <br /> Moreover, Luck is one of the most consistent fantasy players. He had 13 games of 20 or more fantasy points last season and eight where he may nearly have won the week for you by himself scoring 30 or more fantasy points.<br /> <br /> The durability, the additional offensive weapons and the consistency from week to week will help make Luck the highest scoring player in fantasy.<br /> <br /> Luck is projected to throw for 4,829.5 passing yards (1st in the NFL), 39.1 touchdowns (1st in the NFL) and rush for 253.1 yards and 3.4 touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Luck is projected to score 443.2 total fantasy points. Rodgers, the second highest scoring player in fantasy, totals 410.4 points.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Top 5 Fantasy Quarterbacks</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Passing Yards</th> <th> Pass TDs</th> <th> Rushing Yards</th> <th> Rush TDs</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Andrew Luck</td> <td> 4,831.4</td> <td> 39.2</td> <td> 253.4</td> <td> 3.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Aaron Rodgers</td> <td> 4,222.7</td> <td> 37.3</td> <td> 254.4</td> <td> 2.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cam Newton</td> <td> 4,016.6</td> <td> 28.0</td> <td> 544.1</td> <td> 4.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Drew Brees</td> <td> 4,442.5</td> <td> 35.5</td> <td> 75.7</td> <td> 1.1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Ben Roethlisberger</td> <td> 4,559.7</td> <td> 34.6</td> <td> 85.7</td> <td> 0.8</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Who-Will-Be-The-Highest-Scoring-Fantasy-Player-In-Football Wed, 8 Jul 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>2015 NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Sherman-Wagner-Seattle-Seahawks.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Our NFL Positional Power Rankings are based on an impact score (0 – 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Rankings: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>offensive skill positions</a> (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends). <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>Offensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/defensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/linebacker-position-power-rankings-2015″>linebackers</a> and <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/secondary-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive secondary</a> rankings have been revealed.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Highlights</strong><br /> <br /> Which team has the best defense in the NFL? The Seattle Seahawks with an average impact score of 8.51 out of 10. Last year’s runner-up in the Super Bowl has the No. 1 secondary, the second best group of linebackers and a top 15 defensive line.<br /> <br /> The Seahawks are so talented on defense that if you replaced Richard Sherman (9.0 out of 10) with an adequate starter (8.0 out of 10), Seattle would still be the top defense in the league. You would have to remove Sherman from the Legion of Boom and Pro Bowl linebacker Bobby Wagner (9.2 out of 10) to knock the Seahawks out of the top spot.<br /> <br /> The Saints ranked 28th in scoring defense last year. In the offseason, New Orleans added defensive end Anthony Spencer, linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and cornerback Brandon Browner. The Saints also spent six of their nine picks on the defense in the draft. All of this effort and New Orleans still has the 31st ranked defense.<br /> <br /> What can $114 million buy you? Among other things, six years of service from Ndamukong Suh. Miami’s big offseason purchase helped bumped the Dolphins from 26th to 4th in our rankings.<br /> <br /> Most improved defenses: Miami Dolphins from 26th in 2014 to 4th in 2015, Minnesota Vikings from 20th to 5th, Philadelphia Eagles from 24th to 9th, Green Bay Packers from 28th to 16th and Washington Redskins from 27th to 15th.<br /> <br /> Defenses that went from Top 10 to Bottom 10: Arizona Cardinals 7th in 2014 to 25th in 2015. Honorable mentions: San Francisco 49ers from 3rd to 21st and Tennessee Titans from 9th to 19th.<br /> <br /> <strong>Defensive Power Rankings</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Defensive Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 8.51</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.40</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.35</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 8.33</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 8.32</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 8.30</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 8.29</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 8.26</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.24</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 8.23</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 8.21</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 8.19</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 8.18</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 8.17</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8.16</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.15</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 8.15</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 8.14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 8.07</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.04</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 8.02</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 7.95</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 7.92</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 7.92</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.89</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.89</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 7.87</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7.87</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Defensive-power-rankings-2015 Mon, 22 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>2015 NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Packers-Thumbs-Up.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Our NFL Positional Power Rankings are based on an impact score (0 – 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Rankings: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>offensive skill positions</a> (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends). <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>Offensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/defensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/linebacker-position-power-rankings-2015″>linebackers</a> and <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/secondary-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive secondary</a> rankings have been revealed.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Highlights</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Which team has the best offense in the NFL? The Green Bay Packers with an average impact score of 8.52 out of 10. The reigning NFC North champions have the No. 1 group of skill position players and a top five offensive line.<br /> <br /> The Packers are so talented on offense that if you replaced Aaron Rodgers (9.5 out of 10) with an adequate starter (8.0 out of 10), Green Bay would still be a top three offense.<br /> <br /> Buffalo has had a busy offseason. In an attempt to rebuild one of the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-12-29-2014″>worst offenses</a> in the league, the Bills traded for LeSean McCoy, signed Percy Harvin and created a quarterback competition by adding Tyrod Taylor and Matt Cassel. All of these moves, by our numbers, have failed to move the needle. Buffalo has the worst offense in the NFL.<br /> <br /> Only one team in the bottom ten has an offensive player with an impact score of 9.0 or better out of 10 (game-changing) �“ New York Giants’ Odell Beckham Jr.<br /> <br /> Most improved offenses: Baltimore Ravens from <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-power-rankings-2014″>23rd in 2014</a> to 8th in 2015, Indianapolis Colts from 19th to 6th, Pittsburgh Steelers from 15th to 2nd, Houston Texans from 24th to 14th and Kansas City Chiefs from 29th to 23rd.<br /> <br /> Offenses that fell out of the top 10: Cincinnati Bengals from 10th in 2014 to 11th in 2015, Detroit Lions from 4th to 12th, Washington Redskins from 9th to 13th, San Francisco 49ers from 5th to 17th and Minnesota Vikings from 6th to 19th.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Offensive Power Rankings</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Offensive Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8.52</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.46</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.44</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.34</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 8.23</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 8.17</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.16</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 8.15</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 8.06</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.05</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 8.05</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 8.00</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 7.97</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7.95</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 7.95</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 7.94</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 7.94</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 7.94</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.94</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.92</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 7.85</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 7.81</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.75</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 7.66</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Offensive-power-rankings-2015 Fri, 19 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>2015 NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Legion-of-Boom.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Our NFL Positional Power Rankings are based on an impact score (0 – 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Rankings: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>offensive skill positions</a> (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends). <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>Offensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/defensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/linebacker-position-power-rankings-2015″>linebackers</a> and defensive secondary rankings will be revealed in the coming days.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Highlights</strong><br /> <br /> The highest rated player: Denver’s Chris Harris Jr. The Broncos’ Pro Bowler has an impact score of 9.2 out of 10.<br /> <br /> Which team has the best secondary in the league? For the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/secondary-position-power-rankings-2014″>second year in a row</a> it’s the Legion of Boom. The Seattle Seahawks secondary has an average impact score of 8.61 out of 10, up from 8.53 a year ago.<br /> <br /> There are only two players that earned an impact score of 9.0 or better. In addition to Harris Jr., Seattle’s Richard Sherman has an impact score of 9.0 out of 10.<br /> <br /> The highest rated corners: after Harris and Sherman are Indianapolis Colts’ Vontae Davis (8.9 out of 10), New York Jets’ Darrelle Revis (8.8 out of 10) and Kansas City Chiefs’ Sean Smith (8.8 out of 10).<br /> <br /> The highest rated safeties: San Diego Chargers’ Eric Weddle (8.8 out of 10), Minnesota Vikings’ Harrison Smith (8.8 out of 10) and Seattle Seahawks’ Earl Thomas (8.6 out of 10).<br /> <br /> Most improved secondaries: Minnesota Vikings from 26th in 2014 to 4th in 2015. Detroit Lions from 24th to 9th, Indianapolis Colts from 19th to 5th, Washington Redskins from 31st to 17th and New York Jets from 23rd to 11th.<br /> <br /> Top 10 to Bottom 10: Arizona Cardinals from 4th in 2014 to 23rd in 2015, Tennessee Titans from 7th to 28th, Pittsburgh Steelers from 8th to 30th and New Orleans Saints from 5th to 32nd.<br /> <br /> <strong>Secondary Power Rankings</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Secondary Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 8.61</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.44</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8.35</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 8.35</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 8.28</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 8.28</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 8.26</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.19</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.18</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 8.16</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 8.15</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 8.14</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 8.12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 8.12</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 8.12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.10</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 8.06</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 8.05</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 8.04</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 8.01</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.97</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 7.96</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 7.94</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 7.94</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.92</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 7.90</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 7.85</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7.69</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 7.57</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/secondary-position-power-rankings-2015 Wed, 17 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[<em>2015 NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Mack-Oakland-Raiders.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Our NFL Positional Power Rankings are based on an impact score (0 – 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Rankings: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>offensive skill positions</a> (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends). <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>Offensive line</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/defensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>defensive line</a>, linebackers and defensive secondary rankings will be revealed in the coming days.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Highlights</strong><br /> <br /> The highest rated player: Oakland’s Khalil Mack. The Raiders’ second year player has an impact score of 9.8 out of 10.<br /> <br /> Which team has the best group of linebackers in the league? Denver and Seattle each have team impact scores of 8.7 out of 10. The Broncos are anchored by Von Miller (9.7 out of 10) and the Seahawks are led by Bobby Wagner (9.2 out of 10).<br /> <br /> There are eight linebackers that earned impact scores of nine or above (game-changing).<br /> <br /> The highest rated inside linebackers: Seattle Seahawks’ Bobby Wagner (9.2 out of 10), Carolina Panthers’ Luke Kuechly (9.2 out of 10) and New England Patriots’ Jerod Mayo (9.1 out of 10).<br /> <br /> The highest rated outside linebackers: Oakland Raiders’ Khalil Mack (9.8 out of 10), Denver Broncos’ Von Miller (9.7 out of 10) and Kansas City Chiefs’ Justin Houston (9.7 out of 10).<br /> <br /> Most improved linebacking units: New Orleans Saints from 31st in 2014 to 15th in 2015. New England Patriots from 21st to 6th, Philadelphia Eagles from 22nd to 9th, Green Bay Packers from 26th to 14th and Miami Dolphins from 30th to 18th.<br /> <br /> Top half to bottom half �“ Houston Texans from 12th in 2014 to 27th in 2015 and Cincinnati Bengals from 15th to 28th.<br /> <br /> <strong>Linebacker Power Rankings</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Linebacker Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.70</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 8.70</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 8.59</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.56</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 8.51</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 8.47</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.40</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 8.39</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.38</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 8.35</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 8.33</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.31</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 8.22</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8.14</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 8.10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 8.08</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 8.08</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 8.07</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 8.01</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.00</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 7.97</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.86</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.85</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.78</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 7.78</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 7.77</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 7.72</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 7.64</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 7.63</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 7.63</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/linebacker-position-power-rankings-2015 Mon, 15 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>2015 NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/JJ-Watt-Houston-Texans(1).jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Our NFL Positional Power Rankings are based on an impact score (0 – 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Rankings: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>offensive skill positions</a> (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends). <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015″>Offensive line</a>, defensive line, linebackers and defensive secondary rankings will be revealed in the coming days.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Highlights</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> The highest rated players: Houston Texans’ J.J. Watt (10 out of 10). The defensive end is the only player in the NFL to receive a perfect score. Houston has a top five defensive line with Watt. If you replace the Texans’ <a href=”http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-plays/0ap2000000294085/WK-14-Can-t-Miss-Play-Falcons-kick-ball-score-a-pick-six”>jack-of-all-trades</a> with an average player, Houston’s defensive line falls into the bottom ten.<br /> <br /> Which team has the best defensive line in the league? St. Louis’ line features two Pro Bowlers in end Robert Quinn and tackle Aaron Donald as well as three former first round picks in Chris Long, Michael Brockers and Nick Fairley. The Rams defensive line unit has an average impact score of 8.89 out of 10.<br /> <br /> There are thirteen defensive linemen that earned impact scores of nine or above (game-changing).<br /> <br /> The highest rated tackles: St. Louis Rams’ Aaron Donald (9.4 out of 10), Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy (9.2 out of 10), and Miami Dolphins’ Ndamukong Suh (9.1 out of 10).<br /> <br /> Most improved defensive lines: Redskins from 28th in 2014 to 6th in 2015, Vikings (23rd to 8th), Cowboys (30th to 17th), Steelers (25th to 15th) and Giants (16th to 7th).<br /> <br /> Top 10 to Bottom 10 �“ Raiders 4th in 2014 to 26th in 2015 and Colts (9th to 32nd).<br /> <br /> <strong><span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”>Defensive Line Power Rankings</span></span></strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Defensive Line Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 8.89</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 8.84</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 8.78</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 8.77</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 8.46</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 8.44</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 8.42</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 8.30</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 8.30</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.29</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 8.29</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.26</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.24</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 8.24</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.20</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 8.18</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.16</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 8.13</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 8.10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.07</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 7.99</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 7.98</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 7.96</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.96</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 7.96</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.93</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.89</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 7.87</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 7.85</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7.85</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 7.75</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 7.70</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/defensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015 Thu, 11 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[<em>2015 NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Dallas-Cowboys-Offensive-Line.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Our NFL Positional Power Rankings are based on an impact score (0 – 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Rankings: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015″>offensive skill positions</a> (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends). Offensive line, defensive line, linebackers and defensive secondary rankings will be revealed in the coming days.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Highlights</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> The highest rated player: Evan Mathis (9.7 out of 10). The Eagles All-Pro guard has a higher rating than Aaron Rodgers and Le’Veon Bell (9.5 out of 10). However, these ratings are relative to expectations at each position. Mathis is not necessarily better than Rodgers or Bell but he is a better offensive guard than Rodgers is a quarterback or Bell is a running back. Of course none of this could matter since <a href=”http://espn.go.com/blog/philadelphia-eagles/post/_/id/12347/evan-mathis-holdout-reaches-crisis-point”>Mathis is holding out</a> for a new contract.<br /> <br /> Which team has the best offensive line in the league? Dallas (8.81 out of 10) just edges Philadelphia (8.80 out of 10). If DeMarco Murray, the Cowboys former back, doesn’t succeed in Philly it won’t be because of his offensive line.<br /> <br /> There are twelve offensive linemen that earned impact scores of nine or above (game-changing).<br /> <br /> The highest rated tackle: the Cincinnati Bengals’ Andrew Whitworth (9.4 out of 10).<br /> <br /> The highest rated center: Max Unger (9.0 out of 10). The Saints acquired their new center as part of the Jimmy Graham trade with Seattle in the offseason.<br /> <br /> Ever wonder why your fantasy running back is getting tackled in the backfield or why your favorite quarterback is picking himself up off the ground constantly? Of the 160 offensive linemen ranked, only 87 (54%) earned a score of eight or above �“ expected to start adequately.<br /> <br /> Offensive tackles get paid the most to protect the quarterback’s blindside but six of the top ten offensive linemen are guards and centers.<br /> <br /> Most improved line: <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-linemen-position-power-rankings-2014″>Packers (24th to 4th)</a>, Jaguars (32nd to 12th), Saints (21st to 6th), Cardinals (29th to 16th) and Buccaneers (28th to 15th).<br /> <br /> Top 10 to Bottom 10 �“ Broncos (4th to 29th), Vikings (2nd to 25th), Bills (9th to 32nd) and Rams (7th to 27th).<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Offensive Line Power Rankings</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Offensive Line Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.81</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.80</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 8.66</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8.52</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 8.43</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 8.40</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.38</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 8.32</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 8.20</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 8.14</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 8.13</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.04</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 8.01</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 8.00</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 7.96</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 7.96</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 7.93</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 7.87</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 7.87</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7.85</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 7.78</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 7.78</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 7.76</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 7.76</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 7.74</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 7.72</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 7.70</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 7.59</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 7.51</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 7.44</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/offensive-line-position-power-rankings-2015 Wed, 10 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[<em>NFL Positional Power Rankings �“ ranking every player in the NFL by position.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Aaron-Rodgers-Green-Bay-Packers-2.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Our NFL Positional Power Rankings are based on an impact score (0 – 10 scale) for each player. This score is a relative value based on the projections that can put players in context across positions. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, game-changing athlete.<br /> <br /> Why are positional rankings important? These rankings are a key component for our 50,000 simulations. The relative strengths and weakness of the teams have helped PredictionMachine.com go 35-9 (80% ATS) all-time in the NFL Playoffs.<br /> <br /> The first position we rank: offensive skill positions (including quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends). Offensive line, defensive line, linebackers and defensive secondary rankings will be revealed in the coming days.<br /> <br /> For more fun with impact scores check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Draft-Machine”>NFL Draft Machine</a>.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Highlights</strong></span></span><br /> <ul> <li> The highest rated players: Aaron Rodgers and Le’Veon Bell (9.5 out of 10).</li> <li> Peyton Manning was the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2014″>highest rated player last year</a> with a 9.3 out of 10. Manning is now outside the top ten among quarterbacks with an impact score of 8.6 out of 10.</li> <li> There are 14 players that earned impact scores of nine or above (game-changing). There were only ten players last year.</li> <li> Running backs aren’t dead yet. This spring two ball carriers went in the first round of the draft for the first time since 2012 and five backs have impact scores of nine or higher, the most of any position.</li> <li> The highest rated receiver: Odell Beckham Jr. (9.2 out of 10). Don’t expect a sophomore slump for the young Giants’ receiver.</li> <li> The highest rated tight end: Rob Gronkowski (9.3 out of 10). Last year Gronk had the same score (8.8) as Jimmy Graham. Entering the 2015 season, the Seahawks new tight end has an impact score of 8.7 out of 10.</li> <li> The highest rated rookie skill position player �“ Melvin Gordon and Amari Cooper (8.8 out of 10).</li> <li> Only 55 percent of the players ranked (124 out of 224) earned a ranking of eight or above �“ expected to start adequately.</li> <li> Seven of the top ten highest ranked skill position units also have a player under center that ranks in the top ten at quarterback.</li> <li> Drew Brees is in quarterback jail. The Saints play caller ranks No. 2 among quarterbacks but has the fewest weapons around him �“ New Orleans ranks 15th in offensive skill position.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong><span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”>Skill Position Power Rankings</span></span></strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Average Skill Position Ranking</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8.51</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.51</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.50</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 8.38</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 8.34</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 8.25</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 8.25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 8.23</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 8.21</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.18</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.15</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 8.15</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 8.15</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 8.14</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 8.10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 8.07</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.05</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 8.02</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 8.01</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 7.98</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 7.94</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 7.92</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.89</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 7.86</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 7.85</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 7.81</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 7.77</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.76</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 7.72</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 7.51</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.50</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2015 Mon, 8 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[What impact will Newton’s contract have on Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Luck-Wilson-Newton-Contracts.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The Carolina Panthers, per sources, have given Cam Newton a $103.8 million five-year extension. The two-time Pro Bowl selection would become the third-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL based on an average salary of $20.76 million a year.<br /> <br /> What does Newton’s hefty raise mean for other young franchise quarterbacks?<br /> <br /> Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are each in the process of negotiating new contracts. From a production standpoint both quarterbacks should be expected to sign for more money.<br /> <br /> Newton only has one playoff win in four seasons and has a 30-31-1 record. Luck, the No. 1 overall pick three years ago, has led the Colts to three straight playoff appearances and double digit wins each season. Wilson, perhaps the best bargain in football ($1.7 million in 2015), has been to two Super Bowls and has one ring.<br /> <br /> Our impact scores also suggest that both Luck and Wilson will get paid more than Newton. The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> Luck is one of just five players with an impact score greater than nine. The Colts passer, by impact score, is the third best signal caller in the NFL. Wilson’s impact score of 8.56 is actually lower than Newton’s 8.60. However, both are top ten quarterbacks by impact score and Wilson’s two Super Bowl runs will be hard to ignore.<br /> <br /> Our early 2015 projections also favor Luck and have Wilson and Newton with similar totals. Luck is projected to throw for 4,821.8 yards, 38.9 touchdowns and 15.7 interceptions. The Colts star is our number one quarterback in fantasy.<br /> <br /> Wilson is projected to throw 3,677.5 passing yards and 27.5 touchdowns, both career-highs. Last year, Wilson led all quarterbacks in rushing and is expected to do so again this season. Wilson is projected to rush for 596.5 yards and 3.4 touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Newton, like Wilson, is expected to have career highs in passing yards (4,020.0) and touchdowns (28.2). He also tallies 471.1 yards on the ground with an additional 3.8 rushing touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Newton’s deal will become the baseline for the extensions that Luck and Wilson sign in the near future but could also have ramifications for veteran passers. The New York Giant’s Eli Manning and San Diego Chargers’ Philip Rivers are set to become free agents after this season.<br /> <br /> Rivers is a clear top ten quarterback by impact score (8.61). The five-time Pro Bowler rejuvenated his career in 2013 winning the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year. In 2014, Rivers threw for over 4,000 yards, the sixth time he has accomplished that feat in his career.<br /> <br /> Eli Manning is a two-time Super Bowl champion. His impact score (8.09) ranks him as an average quarterback. Two years ago Manning led the NFL in interceptions. The emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. last season helped Manning throw for 30 touchdowns (9th in NFL) and cut his interceptions in half.<br /> <br /> Rivers is projected to complete 64.3 percent of his passes for 3,975.1 yards, 33.5 touchdowns and 15.9 interceptions. Manning, again with the rise of Beckham Jr., is projected to throw for 4,544.9 yards (more than his brother Peyton), 33.9 touchdowns and 15.2 interceptions.<br /> <br /> Neither quarterback is scheduled to make more than $17 million in 2015. A strong statistical season (as we project for both) and a playoff appearance could get both into the $20 million a year quarterback club.<br /> <br /> Only six passers, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Newton (when his deal is finalized), Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Drew Brees average $20 million a year.<br /> <br /> Speaking of Brees, the Saints’ quarterback has a <a href=”http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-orleans-saints/drew-brees/”>cap hit</a> of $26.4 million in 2015 and $27.4 million in 2016. For a club that is dealing with cap issues, giving Brees an extension could help resolve or at least push their fiscal problems into the future.<br /> <br /> Brees, for his part, is projected to be a top three quarterback in 2015. New Orleans’ all-time leading passer throws for 4,642.6 yards, 37.2 touchdowns and 17.4 interceptions in our simulations.<br /> <br /> <strong>Additional Notes</strong><br /> <br /> Newton’s average yearly salary trails only Aaron Rodgers ($22 million) and Ben Roethlisberger ($21.85 million). Rodgers has the highest impact score (9.50) and Roethlisberger has the fourth best (9.19).<br /> <br /> Newton has accounted for 115 passing and rushing touchdowns in his first four seasons, only Dan Marino and Peyton Manning had more. Manning’s impact score is 8.55, the eleventh best among starters.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Quarterback Impact Scores</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Quarterback</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Impact Score</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Aaron Rodgers</td> <td> 9.50</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Drew Brees</td> <td> 9.30</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Andrew Luck</td> <td> 9.28</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Ben Roethlisberger</td> <td> 9.19</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tom Brady</td> <td> 9.11</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Matt Ryan</td> <td> 8.80</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tony Romo</td> <td> 8.68</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Philip Rivers</td> <td> 8.61</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Cam Newton</td> <td> 8.60</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Russell Wilson</td> <td> 8.56</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Peyton Manning</td> <td> 8.55</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Marcus Mariota</td> <td> 8.48</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Ryan Tannehill</td> <td> 8.39</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Teddy Bridgewater</td> <td> 8.29</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Joe Flacco</td> <td> 8.12</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New York Giants</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Eli Manning</td> <td> 8.09</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Carson Palmer</td> <td> 8.06</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Alex Smith</td> <td> 8.01</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Sam Bradford</td> <td> 7.98</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Jameis Winston</td> <td> 7.95</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Matthew Stafford</td> <td> 7.88</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Robert Griffin III</td> <td> 7.88</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Colin Kaepernick</td> <td> 7.77</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Andy Dalton</td> <td> 7.75</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Nick Foles</td> <td> 7.67</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Jay Cutler</td> <td> 7.65</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Brian Hoyer</td> <td> 7.32</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Matt Cassel</td> <td> 7.27</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New York Jets</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Geno Smith</td> <td> 7.14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Derek Carr</td> <td> 7.11</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Josh McCown</td> <td> 7.04</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Blake Bortles</td> <td> 7.00</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Cam-Newton-Contract-Impact Wed, 3 Jun 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[How do the retirements of Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and Chris Borland impact the 49ers’ defense?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/justin-Smith-49ers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> On Monday the San Francisco 49ers announced the retirement of defensive linemen Justin Smith. The five-time Pro Bowler joins inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland as the third member of the 49ers’ defense to retire this offseason.<br /> <br /> Wear and tear from a 14-year career made the veteran defensive lineman’s retirement probable but Smith stepping away from the game, coupled with the losses of Willis and Borland, is a major blow to the 49ers’ defense.<br /> <br /> How does the retirement of three starters impact San Francisco’s defense?<br /> <br /> If all three players decided to suit up for the 2015 season we would expect the 49ers defensive unit to allow 21.7 point per game. With Smith, Willis and Borland, San Francisco would allow 4.0 yards per carry and 6.8 yards per pass. The defense would sack opposing quarterbacks on 6.3% of drop backs and have an interception rate of 3.1%. The 49ers average record would be 8.3 wins and 7.7 losses.<br /> <br /> Without the three defensive players, the unit is less effective. Point per game allowed (23.9), yards-per-carry (4.5) and yards-per-pass (7.0) increase while sack rate (6.1%) and interception rate (2.9%) decrease. The net result is an additional loss of 1.4 games. San Francisco’s projected record after the retirements is 6.9 wins and 9.1 losses.<br /> <br /> The 49ers are projected to have their first losing season since 2010.<br /> <br /> There are just three defensive starters remaining from the 49ers’ 2012 Super Bowl team. When Smith, Willis and Borland retired it not only ended their careers but perhaps signaled the end of an era in San Francisco.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>49ers Defense �“ With and Without Smith, Willis and Borland</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Stats</th> <th> With Smith, Willis, Borland</th> <th> Without Smith, Willis, Borland</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Points-Per-Game Allowed</td> <td> 21.7</td> <td> 23.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Yards-Per-Carry</td> <td> 4.0</td> <td> 4.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Yards-Per-Pass</td> <td> 6.8</td> <td> 7.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sack Rate</td> <td> 6.3%</td> <td> 6.1%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> INT Rate</td> <td> 3.1%</td> <td> 2.9%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Record</td> <td> 8.3-7.7</td> <td> 6.9-9.1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/49ers-Defense-Impact-Of-Retirements Tue, 19 May 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Deflategate punishment moves the lines in Las Vegas. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/New-England-Patriots-Tom-Brady.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> NFL has suspended Tom Brady for four games for his alleged role in Deflategate. Now that the punishment has come down, sports books have reopened betting on the New England Patriots.<br /> <br /> Oddsmakers had taken all Patriots bets including Super Bowl, conference and divisional odds off the board when the Wells report was released.<br /> <br /> How has the Deflategate punishment moved the lines in Sin City?<br /> <br /> Before Brady’s suspension, New England was +750 to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots had the third best odds trailing only Seattle and Green Bay. The defending champions were +350 to win the AFC Conference and -200 to win their division.<br /> <br /> The four game suspension has moved the lines but not dramatically. New England is +1000 repeat as Super Bowl Champion (4th best odds), +450 to win the AFC Conference and -150 to win the AFC East.<br /> <br /> It may come as a surprise that New England is still the favorite to win the division but it shouldn’t. Our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Tom-Brady-Four-Game-Suspension”>analysis of Brady’s suspension</a> indicates that the Patriots stay on top of the AFC East even if their starting quarterback misses the first four games of the season.<br /> <br /> Of course the suspension isn’t guaranteed. Brady’s agent has said that the quarterback will appeal his punishment. Think the NFL will waffle on its sentence?<br /> <br /> If Tom Brady appeals his Suspension what will the initial results of the appeal be? <ul> <li> <div> Remains a 4 game Suspension 11/10</div> </li> <li> <div> <span style=”font-size: 12px;”>3 game suspension 4/1</span></div> </li> <li> <div> <span style=”font-size: 12px;”>2 game suspension 7/5</span></div> </li> <li> <div> <span style=”font-size: 12px;”>1 game suspension 7/1</span></div> </li> <li> <div> <span style=”font-size: 12px;”>No game suspension 10/1</span></div> </li> </ul> <br /> The oddsmakers think the suspension will be upheld and that it is unlikely Brady gets off scot-free.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Change in the New England Patriots Odds</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Odds to Win</th> <th> Before Suspension</th> <th> After Suspension</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Super Bowl</td> <td> +750</td> <td> +1000</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AFC Conference</td> <td> +350</td> <td> +450</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AFC East</td> <td> -200</td> <td> -150</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Deflategate-Line-Movement-Patriots Tue, 12 May 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[What impact will Brady’s suspension have on the Patriots’ season?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tom-Brady-suspension.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <span style=”background-color:#ffff00;”>Update: The NFL and commissioner Roger Goodell has upheld the four-game suspension of New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady. When the suspension was originally announced we ran simulations to determine the impact of Brady’s punishment on New England’s season. </span><br /> <br /> The NFL suspended Tom Brady for four games without pay. The league also fined the New England Patriots $1 million and two draft picks because of Deflategate<br /> <br /> How will Brady’s absence impact the Patriots’ season?<br /> <br /> If Brady played a full season, New England’s average record after 50,000 simulations would be 10.1 wins (4th highest win total in the NFL) and 5.9 losses. The Patriots would win the AFC East by 1.1 games. Brady would complete 63.6 percent (364-of-573) of his passes for 4,435 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.<br /> <br /> Without the future Hall of Famer for the first four games of the season the Patriots still win the AFC East. New England’s average record is 9.4 wins and 6.6 losses. Brady is projected to throw for 3,241 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions in an abbreviated season.<br /> <br /> The defending champions will begin their title defense without the Super Bowl MVP on September 10th against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brady will miss Week 2 at Buffalo, Week 3 at home against Jacksonville and a road trip to Dallas in Week 4.<br /> <br /> With Brady, the Patriots would be favorites in all four of those games. Instead, assuming Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter, New England is the projected loser against Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Dallas. Even without Brady, the Patriots are still likely to rough up Jacksonville.<br /> <br /> Brady’s four game suspension will hurt the team but the Patriots will still end up on top of the AFC East.<br /> <br /> <strong>The Impact of Tom Brady’s Suspension</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Projected Stats</th> <th> With Brady</th> <th> Without Brady</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Record</td> <td> 10.1-5.9</td> <td> 9.4-6.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Win AFC East?</td> <td> Yes</td> <td> Yes</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <strong>Change in New England’s Win Probability</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Game</th> <th> With Brady</th> <th> Without Brady</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> vs. Pittsburgh</td> <td> 64.7%</td> <td> 44.5%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> at Buffalo</td> <td> 51.4%</td> <td> 33.9%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> vs. Jacksonville</td> <td> 85.9%</td> <td> 65.7%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> at Dallas</td> <td> 55.2%</td> <td> 38.7%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Tom-Brady-Four-Game-Suspension Mon, 11 May 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Life without Brady, what impact would a suspension have on the Patriots’ season.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/New-England-Patriots-Tom-Brady.jpg” /><br /> <br /> The Wells report, an NFL investigation released Wednesday, found that New England Patriots personnel more probable than not deliberately deflated balls during the AFC Championship Game against the Indianapolis Colts. The findings also implicated Tom Brady, saying that the quarterback was probably “at least generally aware” of the rules violations.<br /> <br /> The NFL is expected to make disciplinary decisions regarding the New England Patriots and Tom Brady. Possible penalties include a fine, a loss of one or more draft picks or potential discipline for Brady.<br /> <br /> How would a suspension of Tom Brady impact the Patriots season?<br /> <br /> If Brady played a full season, New England’s average record after 50,000 simulations would be 10.1 wins (4th highest win total in the NFL) and 5.9 losses. The Patriots would win the AFC East by 1.1 games. Brady would complete 63.6 percent (364-of-573) of his passes for 4,435 yards, 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.<br /> <br /> The nightmare scenario for Pats’ fans, the NFL drops the hammer on the organization and suspends Brady for a full season. In this scenario, New England finishes with a lousy record of 6.8 wins, 9.2 losses (sixth lowest win total in the NFL). The Patriots without Brady finish 2.5 games behind the Bills and Dolphins in the AFC East.<br /> <br /> Without their future Hall of Fame quarterback, the Patriots would likely turn the ball over to second year player Jimmy Garoppolo. Brady’s understudy as the starter would be projected to complete 300-of-524 (57.2%) passes for 3,277 yards, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.<br /> <br /> Of course a season long suspension is unlikely for the All-Pro quarterback. A more probable suspension would be a few games. The impact of Brady’s absence, even in one or two games, is significant.<br /> <br /> Assuming Brady plays, the Patriots at home in Week 1 are projected to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 64.7 percent of the time. In Week 2, on the road against the Buffalo Bills the Patriots are the projected winner 51.4 percent of the time in our simulations.<br /> <br /> If Brady were suspended for the first two games of the season the Patriots would be expected to lose both matchups. New England’s win probability against the Steelers would decrease from 64.7 percent to 44.5 percent and from 51.4 percent against the Bills to 33.9 percent.<br /> <br /> Will Brady be suspended, maybe, and for the defending champs life without their quarterback is grim.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>New England Patriots Season – With and Without Tom Brady</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Projected Stats</th> <th> Record</th> <th> Win AFC East</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Record</td> <td> 10.1-5.9</td> <td> 6.8-9.2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Win AFC East?</td> <td> Yes</td> <td> No</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Win Total</td> <td> 4th Highest</td> <td> 6th Lowest</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Tom-Brady-Suspension-Wells-Report Fri, 8 May 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[2015 NFL Win Totals. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Seahawks-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released its 2015 NFL Win Totals following the NFL Draft. What can the win totals tell us about the upcoming NFL season?<br /> <br /> The Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are expected to be the class of the league with over/under win totals posted at 11 games. The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots follow close behind with win totals of 10.5.<br /> <br /> Despite drafting franchise quarterbacks (they hope), the Tennessee Titans (5.5 wins) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 wins) are likely to pick near the top of the draft again next year.<br /> <br /> Only thirteen teams are expected to improve off of their 2014 record. The rest of the league has posted win totals below the number of victories from last season.<br /> <br /> The Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions all won 11 games a year ago; each team has a win total of 8.5 games. After making last year’s playoffs all three franchises could be on the sidelines when the 2015 postseason kicks off.<br /> <br /> Bouncing back? After trading Jimmy Graham and with an aging Drew Brees, some have suggested that the Saints are at the end of an era. The oddsmakers aren’t buying it. New Orleans opened with the highest win total in the NFC South.<br /> <br /> Parity is the name of the game. There are 19 teams that are expected to finish close to .500 with posted lines between seven and nine wins<br /> <br /> Of course these lines will move as the season approaches for numerous reasons, one being suspensions of star players. Do you think <a href=”http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/05/06/deflategate-new-england-patriots-tom-brady-wells-report”>Tom Brady will miss games</a> because of Deflategate? Then you might consider taking the under on the Patriots.<br /> <br /> How many wins will your favorite team get in 2015?<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Win Total</th> <th> 2014 Record</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 11-5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 6-10</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 10-6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 9-7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 7-8-1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 5-11</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 10-5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 6.5</td> <td> 7-9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 9.5</td> <td> 12-4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 12-4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 11-5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 12-4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 9-7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 10.5</td> <td> 11-5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 5.5</td> <td> 3-13</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 9-7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 8-8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 7-9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 10.5</td> <td> 12-4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 7-9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 6-10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 4-12</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 5.5</td> <td> 3-13</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 9.5</td> <td> 10-6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 8.5</td> <td> 11-5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 9-7</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 7.5</td> <td> 8-8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 12-4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 6-10</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 2-14</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 5.5</td> <td> 2-14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 4-12</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-NFL-Win-Totals-Westgate Thu, 7 May 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Does fast equal good? Mike Wallace’s impact score.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Mike-Wallace-Miami-Dolphins(1).jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> “Without a doubt, I’m the fastest player in the NFL,” Mike Wallace told the <a href=”http://blogs.twincities.com/vikings/2015/05/05/vikings-wide-receiver-mike-wallace-says-hes-nfls-fastest-player/”>Pioneer Press</a>.<br /> <br /> The Vikings receiver ran a 4.33 in the 40 at the 2009 NFL combine. The 28-year old Wallace told the paper that his personal best in the 40-yard dash was 4.21 seconds, which would be faster than the best time ever recorded at the combine by running back Chris Johnson (4.24).<br /> <br /> Unless the NFL brings back its “<a href=”http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap2000000313202/2007-Pro-Bowl-Fastest-Man-competition”>NFL’s Fastest Man</a>” competition, last held at the 2007 Pro Bowl, Wallace’s claim as the fastest player in the league will be hard to prove.<br /> <br /> What we do know for sure is the impact score for Mike Wallace.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> Does fast equal good? Wallace has an impact score of 7.9 out of 10 (outside the top 50 among receivers). He can be expected to start but it is unlikely he returns to form on his 2011 Pro Bowl season.<br /> <br /> In two seasons in Miami, Wallace failed to have a season with 1,000-yards receiving. His last 1,000-yard season came in 2011 when he was with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The receiver has seen his average yards per catch decline from a peak in 2010 of 21.0 yards per catch to 12.9 yards per catch in 2014, 50th in the NFL.<br /> <br /> Minnesota traded for Wallace before the draft hoping to give their young quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, another weapon. Instead of getting a game-changing wideout, the Viking added another average pass catcher �“ regardless of how fast he proclaims himself to be.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Mike-Wallace-Impact-Score Wed, 6 May 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[2015 Super Bowl Odds �“ Post NFL Draft. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/NFL-Draft-QBs.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft provides an opportunity for each team to improve. With the draft in the books, which franchises maximized their picks? Here’s a look at the updated 2016 Super Bowl odds.<br /> <br /> The Seattle Seahawks are still the early Super Bowl favorites (11/2). Last year’s runner-up has one of the worst rookie draft classes in the league but the Seahawks were No. 1 in our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-grades-class-rankings-2015-saints-browns-raiders”>Power Rankings</a> before the draft and remain the best team in football.<br /> <br /> The Packers (7/1), Patriots (15/2), Colts (8/1) and Cowboys (10/1) round out the top five.<br /> <br /> The Bills and Jets have seen their odds improve the most. Buffalo has gone from 66/1 to 33/1 while New York’s odds have moved from 100/1 to 40/1. Neither team had a stellar draft and both rank as middle of the road squads.<br /> <br /> There isn’t a lot of faith in the first quarterbacks off the board. Tampa Bay drafted Jameis Winston with the top overall pick and the Buccaneers Super Bowl odds (100/1) remain the same. Tennessee took Marcus Mariota, the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-quarterback-rankings-projections-winston-mariota-petty”>best quarterback in the draft</a>, and the Titans now have the worst odds (200/1) to win the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> <strong>2015 Super Bowl Odds</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Post Super Bowl</th> <th> Post NFL Draft</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 5/1</td> <td> 11/2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8/1</td> <td> 7/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 7/1</td> <td> 15/2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 14/1</td> <td> 8/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 14/1</td> <td> 10/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 10/1</td> <td> 14/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 20/1</td> <td> 18/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 33/1</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 33/1</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 25/1</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 66/1</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 33/1</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 20/1</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 22/1</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 100/1</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 40/1</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 66/1</td> <td> 75/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 200/1</td> <td> 75/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 100/1</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 100/1</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 200/1</td> <td> 200/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 100/1</td> <td> 200/1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Post-Draft-Super-Bowl-Odds Tue, 5 May 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ AFC West edition<br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve, we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC West</strong></span> �“ click for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East”>NFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-East”>AFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-North”>NFC North</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-North”>AFC North</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-South”>NFC South</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-South”>AFC South</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-West”>NFC West</a><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Denver Broncos</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Offensive Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Defensive End<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Skill Positions<br /> <br /> Peyton Manning, C.J. Anderson, Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders all made the Pro Bowl in 2014. Denver has the best collection of skill position talent in the NFL. If Manning can stay healthy, the 2015 season will likely end with another deep postseason run.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Denver needs help in the trenches on both sides of the ball but the offensive line should be the primary focus. Drafting a new tackle would help keep Manning upright and open holes in Gary Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Kansas City Chiefs</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Center, Guard, Defensive Line<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Outside Linebackers and Skill Positions<br /> <br /> Kansas City has the best pair of 3-4 OLBs in football. Elsewhere, the Chiefs don’t have the same firepower as the Broncos on offense, but what team does? The addition of Jeremy Maclin in the offseason dramatically improves a receiving corps. All Pro running back Jamaal Charles and breakout tight end Travis Kelce are game-changers and, while he isn’t a top fantasy player, Alex Smith is an above average starting quarterback.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Kansas City is loaded with picks, ten to be exact and they will need them. There isn’t one player on the Chiefs offensive line that grades out as an adequate starter. Eric Fisher has been a disappointment despite being drafted first overall, Paul Fanaika was one of the worst guards in football last season and Eric Kush, a former sixth round pick, is penciled in as the starting center. KC has talent at the skill positions but if they don’t improve the offensive line it could be a long season in Arrowhead.<br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>San Diego Chargers</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Linebacker<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Quarterback<br /> <br /> In a golden age of quarterbacks, Philip Rivers has been one of the best pocket passers in the league. Last year, Rivers finished in the top ten in completion percentage, yards and touchdowns. Through the first four weeks of the season he was a viable <a href=”http://grantland.com/the-triangle/week-4-wrap-up-building-the-uber-team/”>MVP candidate</a>. Rumor has it that the Chargers are considering <a href=”http://www.sportsworldreport.com/articles/49530/20150429/nfl-trade-rumors-philip-rivers-option-for-tennessee-titans-jets-over-marcus-mariota-jay-cutler-if-traded-by-chargers.htm”>trading Rivers</a> for the second overall pick. Considering the quarterbacks outstanding play the last two seasons it would be a high price to pay.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Over the last two seasons the Chargers have sacked opposing quarterbacks 61 times. The only teams worse than San Diego in that same time frame are the Raiders and Falcons. The Chargers need an edge-rusher and should spend picks rebuilding the defensive front seven.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Oakland Raiders</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Wide Receiver, Inside Linebacker, Cornerback<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offensive Line<br /> <br /> Oakland was intent on improving one of the league’s <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>worst offenses</a> in free agency by revamping the offensive line. The Raiders signed former Chiefs center Rodney Hudson to a five-year $44.5 million deal. Oakland now has a top ten unit but it was costly, the team has one of the <a href=”http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/offensive-line/”>most expensive lines</a> in the league.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Derek Carr still has a lot to prove but he showed enough in his rookie season to look like a possible franchise quarterback. The Raiders improved the offensive line in free agency, so the focus of the draft should be to give Carr some weapons. With the fourth overall pick the Raiders will have their choice of receiver.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC West Unit Rankings</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Offense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Defense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Skill</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> O-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> D-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Front 7</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 4</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 30</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 14</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 32</td> <td> 6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 30</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 19</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 22</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-West Thu, 30 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ NFC West edition<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Legion-of-Boom-Seahawks.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve, we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFC West</strong></span> �“ click for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East”>NFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-East”>AFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-North”>NFC North</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-North”>AFC North</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-South”>NFC South</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-South”>AFC South</a><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Seattle Seahawks</strong></span></span></h2> <div> Top needs: Offensive Tackle, Offensive Guard, Defensive Tackle<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Secondary<br /> <br /> The Legion of Boom suffocates opposing offenses with aggressive cornerbacks and safeties that aren’t afraid to hit. Seattle’s secondary has been the envy of the league and was the centerpiece of the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>No. 1 defense</a> last year, 1st in defensive rushing efficiency and 2nd in defensive passing efficiency. Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas lead the best secondary unit in football.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Seattle already addressed one of its biggest weakness with the surprising trade for Jimmy Graham. Russell Wilson now has a serious receiving threat but the offensive line was weakened when center Max Unger was sent to New Orleans as part of the trade and the Seahawks lost guard James Carpenter to the Jets in free agency. The defense is still stacked and if Seattle can improve the offensive line it could mean another return trip to the Super Bowl.<br /> </div> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Arizona Cardinals</strong></span></span></h2> <div> Top needs: Linebacker, Corner, Running Back<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defensive Line<br /> <br /> Arizona went 11-5 last season but only outscored opponents by 11 points. Based on Pythagorean Expectations, the Cardinals were closer to an eight win team. Every unit in Arizona ranks as average or worse. The defensive line, even though it struggled to sack opposing quarterbacks and was part of an overall defense that ranked 22nd in defensive rushing efficiency, ranks as the best unit in Glendale.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The Cardinals need help creating a pass rush. Last year Arizona blitzed on 43.1 percent of opposing dropbacks, the third highest rate in the league. The Cardinals should target an outside linebacker that can create pressure in Arizona’s 3-4 defense as well as a cornerback that can play opposite of Patrick Peterson after losing Antonio Cromartie to free agency.<br /> </div> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>San Francisco 49ers</strong></span></span></h2> <div> Top needs: Cornerback, Guard, Center<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Linebackers<br /> <br /> Even with Future Hall of Famer Patrick Willis retirement and Chris Borland <a href=”http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/12496480/san-francisco-49ers-linebacker-chris-borland-retires-head-injury-concerns”>quitting football</a> after an impressive rookie season, the best unit in the Bay Area is San Francisco’s linebackers. The heart of the Niners defense is led by NaVorro Bowman, a three time First-team All Pro, and Aldon Smith a Pro Bowler.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> San Francisco is thin at cornerback. Two years ago the Niners let the starting corners leave in free agency, then this offseason they let their replacements for those starters, Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox, walk. Three of the four remaining members of the 49ers secondary have an impact score below eight, slightly above replacement level talent, including both corners. The Niners are trending in the wrong direction, finding a starter for the secondary and patching the offensive line in the draft could slow the downward spiral or possibly reverse it.</div> <h2> <br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>St. Louis Rams</strong></span></span></h2> <div> Top needs: Offensive Line, Running Back, Quarterback<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defensive Line<br /> <br /> The defensive line in St. Louis is stacked. The Rams added former first round draft pick Nick Fairley in free agency to a wrecking crew that features Chris Long, Michael Brockers and 2014 Pro Bowlers Aaron Donald and Robert Quinn. The depth and talent on St. Louis’ defensive line is virtually unmatched in the NFL.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Outside of Greg Robinson, the second overall pick in last year’s draft, and Rodger Saffold, there are three starting jobs up for grabs on the Rams’ offensive line. In our seven round <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-mock-7-round”>mock draft</a>, St. Louis spends two of its first three picks rebuilding the offensive line. The Rams’ front office should follow our lead.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFC West Unit Rankings</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Offense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Defense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Skill</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> O-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> D-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Front 7</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 19</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 4</td> <td> 32</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 26</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 17</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 26</td> <td> 23</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 19</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 29</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height: 17px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 15</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 18</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-West Wed, 29 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ AFC South edition<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Andrew-Luck-Colts-Browns.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve, we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC South</strong></span> �“ click for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East”>NFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-East”>AFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-North”>NFC North</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-North”>AFC North</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-South”>NFC South</a><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Indianapolis Colts</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive Line, Offensive Line, Running Back<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Quarterback<br /> <br /> Andrew Luck is the quarterback every team hopes to draft. Smart and athletic, Luck has been a Pro Bowler in each of his first three seasons. The young gunslinger has led the team to double digit wins and deep playoff runs. The Colts are an average team but Luck, with an impact score of 8.9 out of 10, makes them dangerous.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The Colts won 11 games for a third straight year and reached the AFC Championship game. Despite all that success, what the 2014 Colts might be remembered for most is the obscene amount of rushing yards they allowed to New England in two games. Including the showdown in the AFC Championship, Indy gave up 423 rushing yards and seven touchdowns to the Patriots. Chuck Pagano needs to focus this draft on rebuilding the defensive line. The Colts need an upgrade at nose tackle and to add depth at defensive end. No one on Indy’s defensive line has an impact score of an adequate starter.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Houston Texans</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Quarterback, Safety, Linebacker<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: J.J. Watt<br /> <br /> The best defensive player in the game. Period. J.J. Watt is the only player with a perfect impact score, 10 out of 10. <a href=”http://www.nfl.com/videos/2014-elite-performers/0ap3000000448063/2014-Best-of-J-J-Watt”>Watt does it all</a>, from destroying quarterbacks, to catching touchdown passes, to writing <a href=”http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/page/instantawesome-jjwattletter-150427/jj-watt-writes-fan-get-work-letter-attend-charity-softball-game”>‘get out of work’ letters</a> for fans.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The Texans do not have an answer at quarterback. With Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage, it appears Houston is trying to throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks. With the No. 16 pick and a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-quarterback-rankings-projections-winston-mariota-petty”>thin quarterback draft class</a>, it’s unlikely that the Texans find a quarterback of the future. Instead, the team should focus on improving the defense behind J.J. Watt. Linebacker and safety are two areas of need.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Jacksonville Jaguars</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Secondary, Running Back, Defensive End<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offensive Line<br /> <br /> Yes, the line has allowed 50 sacks in consecutive years. Yes, Jacksonville set a dubious franchise record for most sacks allowed in a game, Chad Henne was taken down ten times in a Week 2 blowout against Washington. Yes, the unit surrendered 71 sacks in 2014, a new franchise record. All of that is true but even with the inconsistent play from a season ago there is real talent on this line. This is a fringe top ten offensive line with three of five starters rating as above average.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The Jags are the only team in the NFL that would benefit from <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Tim-Tebow-Impact-Philadelphia-Eagles”>starting Tim Tebow</a>, that is how bad the quarterback situation is in Jacksonville. The Jaguars need better play out of Blake Bortles this season, but it is unlikely the organization tries to improve the position in the draft. And that’s ok, there are a lot of other holes on the roster. If the Jags can find adequate starters for the secondary and the defensive line it would be considered a wildly success draft.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Tennessee Titans</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Quarterback, Receiver, Secondary<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defensive Line<br /> <br /> The best compliment we can give the defensive line is that the unit is above average. The Titans are anchored on that side of the ball by a pair of Pro Bowl caliber defensive ends in Jurrell Casey (impact score of 8.9 out of 10) and Ropati Pitoitua (8.6 out of 10).<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The draft starts at No. 2. Tampa Bay is taking Jameis Winston, Tennessee isn’t married to anyone with the second overall pick and are willing to make a deal. If the Titans are smart they keep the pick and select Marcus Mariota. Pundits claim it’s an even race between Winston and Mariota but in fact it is not even close. Mariota has an impact score of 9.5 out of 10, Winston’s impact score is 8.1. Mariota’s impact score is better than Andrew Luck’s coming out of college while Winston is closer to Brandon Weeden.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC South Unit Rankings</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Offense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Defense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Skill</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> O-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> D-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Front 7</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 32</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 5</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 19</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 29</td> <td> 32</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 29</td> <td> 26</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 28</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-South Tue, 28 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ NFC South edition<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Newton-Carolina-Panthers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve, we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFC South</strong></span> �“ click for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East”>NFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-East”>AFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-North”>NFC North</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-North”>AFC North</a><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Carolina Panthers</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Offensive Tackle, Offensive Guard, Defensive End<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defensive Front Seven<br /> <br /> The front seven is the strength of the two time defending NFC South defense. Luke Kuechly, the 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, led the NFL in tackles in 2014, the second time in his three pro seasons, and is the star of Carolina’s defense. Kuechly’s impact score is 9.2 out of 10, he is the highest rated inside linebacker in the league. With a top three overall defense the Panthers will look to return to the playoffs for a franchise record third straight year.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Cam Newton may be one of the best quarterbacks in the league but the same cannot be said for his offensive line. The guys paid to block for Carolina’s young quarterback are the worst unit in the NFC South and rank 29th overall in the NFL. The Panthers signed Jonathan Martin and Michael Oher in free agency to compete for starting jobs but the team will need to turn to the draft to find real answers to their offensive line woes.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>New Orleans Saints</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Corner, Safety, Defensive Line<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Quarterback<br /> <br /> In a disappointing year for the Saints, Drew Brees still starred. The Pro Bowl quarterback led the league in passing (4,952 yards) for the third time in four seasons. Brees impact score is 9.3 out of 10, one of just four quarterbacks with an impact score of 9.0 or higher.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> New Orleans’ defense allowed 251.2 passing yards per game (25th in NFL), 132.8 rushing yards per game (29th in NFL) and 26.5 point per game (28th in NFL). The Saints <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>defense ranked 28th and 32nd</a> in defensive passing and rushing efficiency. Nola’s defense needs help at every level and with five top-80 draft picks the defense can be rebuilt on the fly.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Atlanta Falcons</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive Line, Safety, Offensive Line<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Strength of Schedule<br /> <br /> Atlanta’s offense ranks 24th overall, its defense is the worst in the league. After back-to-back losing seasons the Falcons are starting over with a new coaching staff. It is grim in Hot’Lanta but there is a silver lining. Based on 2014 records, the Falcons have the <a href=”http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25066031/2015-nfl-strength-of-schedule-steelers-at-no-1-falcons-at-no-32″>easiest schedule</a> in football. Only four games will be against opponents that finished 2014 with a winning record. Woohoo for parity in the NFL!<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The Falcons recorded 22 sacks last season, the second-fewest in the NFL. Atlanta will likely target a pass-rusher with the eighth overall pick. It would then be logical for new Head Coach Dan Quinn to complement his new pass rush with an improved secondary. Atlanta allowed the most passing yards in 2014.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Tampa Bay Buccaneers</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Quarterback, Defensive Line, Linebacker<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offensive Line<br /> <br /> It is all relative but the offensive line, which is just average, is the best unit in Tampa. Four of the five starters on the line grade out as adequate. For a team that managed just two wins a season ago, that is inspiring.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Tampa Bay is drafting a quarterback. All indications are that the Buccaneers have tabbed Jameis Winston as their quarterback of the future. It’s common for an organization that drafts a signal caller in the first round to follow that move by adding to their offensive line but the Buccos would be better served focusing on the defense after securing a franchise quarterback.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFC South Unit Rankings</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Offense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Defense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Skill</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> O-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> D-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Front 7</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 17</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 29</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 30</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 32</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 32</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 25</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 30</td> <td> 25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 15</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 27</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-South Mon, 27 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ AFC North edition<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Steelers-Roethlisberger-Tomlin.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve, we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC North</strong></span> �“ click for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East”>NFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-East”>AFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-North”>NFC North</a><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Pittsburgh Steelers</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Cornerback, Safety, Defensive Tackle<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Skill Positions<br /> <br /> There is a three-headed monster, Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, in the Steel City. Pittsburgh has the only trio of quarterback, running back and wide receiver to all have an impact score of 9.0 or greater out of 10 or higher. The Steelers return every starter on offense this season and are likely to challenge for the league lead in most offensive categories.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The old guard is gone, Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor won’t be donning the black and gold next fall. That is a good thing for a Pittsburgh defense that ranked 30th in <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>defensive passing efficiency</a> last season. Still, the Steelers need a good draft to repair one of the league’s worst secondaries.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Cincinnati Bengals</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive Line, Linebacker, Secondary<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offensive Line<br /> <br /> Andy Dalton has enjoyed playing behind one of the best offensive lines in football. The Bengals are anchored by 2014 Pro Bowler Andrew Whitworth who has an impact score of 9.4 out of 10. Cincinnati’s line allowed the third fewest sacks (23) and the least amount of quarterback pressures (104) in 2014.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The Bengals appear to be aware of their greatest draft needs. Of their 30 official visits or workouts, Cincy met with nine offensive linemen, five linebackers and four defensive linemen per <a href=”http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/25158618/nfl-2015-draft-bengals-31-visits-included-9-o-linemen”>NFLDraftScout.com</a>. By our analysis the Bengals should focus on the defensive front seven as they are desperate to generate a pass rush after totaling 20 sacks last season, the fewest in the league.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Baltimore Ravens</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Corner, Receiver, Defensive Line<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offensive Line<br /> <br /> The offensive line for Joe Flacco continues to improve. Before last season Baltimore’s line <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-linemen-position-power-rankings-2014″>ranked 11th</a> in the NFL, now the Ravens have the fifth best offensive line in the league. The big guys up front allowed Flacco to be sacked a career low 19 times. The line helped Justin Forsett, an unknown eighth year player, become the fifth leading rusher in the league. The best news for Ravens’ fans, the top seven offensive linemen return for next season.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The Ravens need help in the passing game on both sides of the ball. The secondary brought little to the table last season because of injuries to starting cornerbacks Jimmy Smith and Ladarius Webb. The secondary has two below average starters and is the worst unit on the team. Torrey Smith left in free agency and Steve Smith will be 36 years old next season creating a need at receiver. With ten draft picks, including six in the fourth and fifth rounds, Baltimore should be able to address multiple team needs.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Cleveland Browns</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive Line, Quarterback, Running Back<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offensive Line<br /> <br /> We gushed about the lines in Cincinnati and Baltimore but the talent in Cleveland puts them to shame. Future Hall of Famer Joe Thomas has an impact score of 9.3 out of 10, rookie guard Joel Bitonio shined in his first year (impact score of 9.0 out of 10) and the rest of the line features above average starters. The Browns should be even better in 2015 with Pro Bowl center Alex Mack healthy.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Cleveland has two first round picks so there is a chance this team could improve quickly. It would be tempting to try and trade up for another quarterback but the Browns would be better served focusing on other areas of need. The primary concern should be the defensive line, which employs just one average starter. Cleveland ranked <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>29th in defensive rushing efficiency</a> in 2014, allowed a league worse 141.6 rushing yards per game, and rarely got after the opposing quarterback accumulating just 31 sacks (27th in the NFL).<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC North Unit Rankings</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Team</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Offense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Defense</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Skill</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> O-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> D-line</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Front 7</th> <th style=”text-align: left;”> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 15</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 30</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 26</td> <td> 17</td> <td> 10</td> <td> 27</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 13</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 5</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 5</td> <td> 18</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 21</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 30</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 26</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 5</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-North Fri, 24 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[Point spreads for every Week 1 game of the 2015 NFL season. Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Steelers-Patriots.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL released the 2015 schedule on Tuesday and shortly after the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted Week 1 lines. Here’s everything you need to know in April about games that will be played in September.<br /> <br /> The defending champion Patriots opened as the biggest favorites. New England will host Pittsburgh in the season opener as a six point favorite. In the Tom Brady era, the Pats as home favorites of less than a touchdown are 38-19-4 (67%) against-the-spread.<br /> <br /> There are seven home underdogs in Week 1, the most since 2010. All-time, home dogs of three or more points in Week 1 are 74-55-3 (57%) against-the-spread.<br /> <br /> The highest over/under is 53.5 when the Eagles visit the Falcons in Game 1 of the Monday Night doubleheader. There are five games with totals of 50 or more points.<br /> <br /> A lot will change (draft/trades/injuries) before kickoff in Week 1. However, don’t expect the lines to change much. Last year, from when the lines were posted to kickoff of the first game, only two lines moved more than three points.<br /> <br /> <strong>Additional Notes:</strong><br /> <ul> <li> The Seahawks, 11/2 favorites to win the Super Bowl, are 3.5 point favorites over St. Louis.</li> <li> Green Bay has won nine of its last ten games against Chicago, the Packers are four point road favorites against the Bears.</li> <li> Oakland is favored to lose. The Raiders have been dogs in 21 straight games.</li> <li> Detroit is the only playoff team from last year to not be favored against a non-playoff team. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are also underdogs but they play New England and Denver.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>Week 1 NFL Lines</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Date</th> <th> Home</th> <th> Away</th> <th> Total</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Thursday, Sept. 10</td> <td> New England (-6)</td> <td> Pittsburgh</td> <td> 53</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sunday, Sept. 13</td> <td> Chicago</td> <td> Green Bay (-4)</td> <td> 50</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Houston (-1.5)</td> <td> Kansas City</td> <td> 43</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> New York Jets (-1)</td> <td> Cleveland</td> <td> 41</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Buffalo</td> <td> Indianapolis (-3)</td> <td> 48</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Washington</td> <td> Miami (-2.5)</td> <td> 44.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Jacksonville</td> <td> Carolina (-4)</td> <td> 43.5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> St. Louis</td> <td> Seattle (-3.5)</td> <td> 44</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Arizona (-2.5)</td> <td> New Orleans</td> <td> 48</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> San Diego (-2.5)</td> <td> Detroit</td> <td> 46.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Tampa Bay (-3)</td> <td> Tennessee</td> <td> 42.5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Oakland</td> <td> Cincinnati (-3)</td> <td> 44.5</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Denver (-4)</td> <td> Baltimore</td> <td> 53</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> Dallas (-5.5)</td> <td> New York Giants</td> <td> 50</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Monday, Sept 14</td> <td> Atlanta</td> <td> Philadelphia (-1.5)</td> <td> 53.5</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> </td> <td> San Francisco (-3.5)</td> <td> Minnesota</td> <td> 42</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-NFL-Week-1-Lines Thu, 23 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ NFC North edition<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Green-Bay-Packers-Rodgers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve, we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> NFC North �“ click for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East”>NFC East</a>, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-East”>AFC East</a><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Green Bay Packers</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Linebacker<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Skill Positions<br /> <br /> Green Bay enjoys one of the best collections of skill position players in the league. Their poor NFC North rivals will have to deal with Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb through at least the 2018 season, that’s rough. Plus the Packers have Eddie Lacy, a 9.2 out of 10 (3rd best RB in NFL), to pound the rock.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> When you have Rodgers, the best quarterback in the NFL (impact score of 9.5 out of 10), on your team, the offense takes care of itself. The lone need is in the defensive front seven. Defensive tackle is the only position where the Packers do not have at least one above average starter. Green Bay could also use help at inside linebacker where they had to play Clay Matthews at times last season.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Detroit Lions</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive End, Linebacker, Quarterback<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defense<br /> <br /> You lose Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley but still have the second overall defense, that is impressive. Adding Haloti Ngata helped with the departures but this is just a talented squad with above average starters at every position. The Lions enjoy a top ten defensive line and front seven, plus the 11th overall secondary.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> This is a talented team that does not have a lot of needs and will likely challenge Green Bay for the division title once again. Detroit ranks 11th offensively and second defensively and finished as the seventh overall team last year in our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>Power Rankings</a>. An ideal draft would add depth on the defensive side of the ball.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Minnesota Vikings</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Offensive Line, Running Back, Receiver<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Secondary<br /> <br /> Minnesota has a sneaky good secondary. There aren’t any big names but a lot of homegrown talent. Each starter in the secondary is above average. With the defensive line, the secondary makes up the only units on the team that rank in the top ten in the NFL.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> It’s all about Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings found their quarterback of the future in last year’s draft. Now they need to protect him and give him weapons. Adrian Peterson is such a player. He has an impact score of 8.8 out of 10, far better than any back on the roster and the most talented skill position player in Minnesota. The Vikings are entertaining <a href=”http://nesn.com/2015/04/report-six-teams-in-adrian-peterson-trade-discussion-cowboys-among-them/”>trading Peterson</a>. Regardless of what becomes of their Pro Bowl running back; this draft should be focused on building around Bridgewater.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Chicago Bears</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Defensive Line, Secondary, Offensive Line<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Running Back<br /> <br /> If you are a Bears fan, last year was ugly. Jay Cutler, the franchise quarterback, was <a href=”http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000445281/article/bears-bench-jay-cutler-in-favor-of-jimmy-clausen”>benched</a> and the team went 5-11, the worst record in ten years resulting in Marc <a href=”http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/12/29/7184787/marc-trestman-fired-chicago-bears-head-coach”>Trestman being fired</a>. When a team loses, especially when it has playoff expectations, the blame falls on the head coach. To be fair to Trestman, this team isn’t very talented. The best unit, skill position players, ranks just 20th overall in the NFL. Matt Forte, with an impact score of 8.7 out of 10, is their best player and he is quickly approaching 30 entering his eighth season in the league.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> The defense is a dumpster fire. The Bears have below average starters at nearly every position. John Fox will be hoping to find one or two quality starters to revamp a once great Chicago defense.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFC North Unit Rankings</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Offense</th> <th> Defense</th> <th> Skill</th> <th> O-line</th> <th> D-line</th> <th> Front 7</th> <th> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 19</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 4</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 11</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 15</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 11</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 28</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 26</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 3</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 31</td> <td> 20</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 29</td> <td> 24</td> <td> 31</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-North Thu, 23 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ AFC East edition<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Belichick-Brady-Patriots.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve, we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC East</strong>- click for <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East”>NFC East</a></span><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>New England Patriots</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Corner, Defensive Line, Guard<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Skill Positions<br /> <br /> New England’s running back situation is fluid from year to year, their receivers are average, yet they have the best skill position unit in the division because of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Since Gronk entered the league in 2010 no other passer-receiver duo has more touchdowns. Brady’s impact score is 9.1 out of 10 (4th best QB in the NFL) while Gronkowski’s is 9.3, the best for any tight-end or receiver.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner are both gone leaving the Patriots thin at corner. New England has had an uneven history of drafting cornerbacks during the Bill Belichick era. Luckily for the defending champs it shouldn’t be hard to find a player that can make an immediate impact. There are <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-cornerback-rankings-projections-olomu-rollins”>ten prospects</a> that grade out better than the current starting corners.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Buffalo Bills</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Offensive Guard, Offensive Tackle, Quarterback<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Front Seven<br /> <br /> The Bills were the best team to not make the playoffs last year. Buffalo ranked 8th overall in our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>Power Rankings</a> despite having one of the worst offenses in the league. The Bills front seven is a championship caliber unit that led the league in sacks a year ago.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Buffalo added Pro Bowlers LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin in the offseason, yet the Bills offense still ranks last in the league. EJ Manuel isn’t the quarterback of the future and without a first round pick it is unlikely that Buffalo will find a solution under center in this year’s draft. It would be wise of the Bills to use their limited picks on the offensive line (ranks 30th in NFL) to give their new skill position players a chance.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Miami Dolphins</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Offensive Tackle, Offensive Guard, Corner<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defensive Line<br /> <br /> For six years and $114 million the Dolphins bought one of the best defensive linemen in the league. The addition of Ndamukong Suh (impact score of 9.2 out of 10) instantly gives Miami one of the top defensive lines in the league. The Fins now have the best defense in the division.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Ryan Tannehill continues to improve under center (4,045 passing yards and 27 touchdowns in 2014) but for Miami’s young signal caller to take the next step he needs to stay off his back. The Dolphins allowed Tannehill to be sacked 46 times last year, the third most among quarterbacks. Only two starting linemen grade out as average or better, for Tannehill’s sake this should be an area of focus during the draft.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>New York Jets</strong></span></span></h2> <div> Top needs: Quarterback, Guard, Outside Linebacker<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defensive Line<br /> <br /> Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson are studs. After J.J. Watt these are the two best defensive ends in the NFL. The Jets have the number one defensive line in the league, a top five front seven and a top ten secondary. This defense could drag the offense to the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> In two seasons, Geno Smith has completed less than 60 percent of his passes and has thrown 34 interceptions to just 25 touchdowns. For what it’s worth, <a href=”http://nypost.com/2015/04/21/jon-gruden-makes-the-case-for-geno-smith-i-see-progress/”>Jon Gruden sees progress</a>. In a quarterback driven league, Geno can only take you so far. The Jets are hoping Mariota slips to them at six.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>AFC East Unit Rankings</strong></span></div> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Offense</th> <th> Defense</th> <th> Skill</th> <th> O-line</th> <th> D-line</th> <th> Front 7</th> <th> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> <div> New England Patriots</div> </td> <td> <div> 9</div> </td> <td> <div> 17</div> </td> <td> <div> 5</div> </td> <td> <div> 20</div> </td> <td> <div> 28</div> </td> <td> <div> 19</div> </td> <td> <div> 12</div> </td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> <div> Buffalo Bills</div> </td> <td> <div> 32</div> </td> <td> <div> 7</div> </td> <td> <div> 26</div> </td> <td> <div> 30</div> </td> <td> <div> 3</div> </td> <td> <div> 2</div> </td> <td> <div> 20</div> </td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> <div> Miami Dolphins</div> </td> <td> <div> 16</div> </td> <td> <div> 5</div> </td> <td> <div> 10</div> </td> <td> <div> 23</div> </td> <td> <div> 4</div> </td> <td> <div> 4</div> </td> <td> <div> 10</div> </td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:17px;”> <div> New York Jets</div> </td> <td> <div> 29</div> </td> <td> <div> 6</div> </td> <td> <div> 29</div> </td> <td> <div> 19</div> </td> <td> <div> 1</div> </td> <td> <div> 5</div> </td> <td> <div> 9</div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <h2> </h2> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-AFC-East Wed, 22 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[NFL Team Needs �“ NFC East edition<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Chip-Kelly-Eagles.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Draft, which begins on April 30, is fast approaching. Every team hopes to use their picks to fill a position of need. In the days leading up to the draft we will evaluate each team’s biggest needs, greatest strengths and the best case scenario for the draft.<br /> <br /> To objectively answer many questions related to the NFL including how to rank individual units and at exactly which positions teams can and should improve we assign impact scores for every current NFL starter.<br /> <br /> The impact score is a grade on a 0-10 scale based on a player’s expected overall positive contribution at their current ages and relative to position. In the score, a seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position; an eight or above can be expected to start and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player who stars.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFC East</strong></span><br /> <br /> <h2> <strong><span style=”color: rgb(178, 34, 34);”><span style=”font-size: 16px;”>Dallas Cowboys</span></span></strong></h2> Top needs: Cornerback, Outside Linebacker, Safety<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offense<br /> <br /> They say the best offense is a good defense but in Dallas’ case it’s the inverse. The Cowboys were one of the most efficient offenses in the league last year. The Boys’ chewed up yards (383.6 total yards per game) and put up points (29.2 points/5th in NFL) behind the league’s second best offensive line.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> As prolific as the offense was a season ago, the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>defense ranked 18th and 27th</a> respectively in defensive rushing and passing efficiency. Take your pick but Dallas needs help at defensive tackle, outside linebacker and most importantly in the secondary. Unfortunately for America’s team, there isn’t a lot of talent at <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-cornerback-rankings-projections-olomu-rollins”>corner</a> or <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-safety-rankings-projections-collins-sample”>safety</a> in this year’s draft.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Philadelphia Eagles</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Receiver, Quarterback, Secondary<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Offensive Line<br /> <br /> The Eagles have the best offensive line in the league as every starter grades out as above average. Pro Bowl guard Evan Mathis anchors the unit and has the highest impact score of any offensive linemen (9.7 out of 10). DeMarco Murray should be able to find holes and run downhill behind this line.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> Given the string of curious moves by Chip Kelly in the offseason it would be a fool’s errand to say what the Eagles will do. However, receiver and quarterback are both areas of need for Philly even with the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Tim-Tebow-Impact-Philadelphia-Eagles”>addition of Tim Tebow</a>. While it would be easy to concentrate on skill position players the greatest weakness is the secondary, it is the team’s lowest rated unit.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>New York Giants</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Offensive Line, Inside Linebacker, Running Back<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Odell Beckham Jr.<br /> <p> <br /> The rookie receiver was a lone bright spot for a team that finished with a losing record for a second consecutive season, just the third time in 30 years that the franchise has had back-to-back losing seasons. Beckham finished with 91 receptions, 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns in just twelve games. Beckham’s impact score of 9.2 out of 10 is the highest among all receivers.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> A team’s weakness is often magnified in comparison to its division rivals. Philadelphia and Dallas have offensive lines that are the envy of the league, while Big Blue’s is a mess. It is likely that New York addresses this issue with the ninth overall pick and narrows the gap between the best lines in the league.</p> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Washington Redskins</strong></span></span></h2> Top needs: Receiver, Inside Linebacker, Secondary<br /> <br /> Greatest Strength: Defensive Line<br /> <br /> The Redskins beefed up their defensive line with the addition of Terrance Knighton (8.6 out of 10) in free agency. Washington now boasts the best unit in the division. Drafting inside linebacker <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-inside-linebacker-rankings-projections-dawson-heeney”>Paul Dawson (9.0 out of 10)</a> would give the Skins one of the best front sevens in the NFL.<br /> <br /> Best Case Scenario:<br /> <br /> It is a common misconception that Washington has talented skill position players. Sure, there are big names, RG3, DeSean Jackson, and Alfred Morris, but there isn’t a single player that rates as above average. At No. 5, the Redskins could take Marcus Mariota if he slips or a receiver from a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-wide-receiver-rankings-projections-cooper-davis-agholor”>talent rich class</a>.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFC East Unit Rankings</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Offense</th> <th> Defense</th> <th> Skill</th> <th> O-line</th> <th> D-line</th> <th> Front 7</th> <th> Secondary</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 4</td> <td> 9</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 1</td> <td> 12</td> <td> 8</td> <td> 16</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 3</td> <td> 22</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 2</td> <td> 17</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 24</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 23</td> <td> 13</td> <td> 6</td> <td> 15</td> <td> 17</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 15</td> <td> 14</td> <td> 16</td> <td> 21</td> <td> 7</td> <td> 17</td> <td> 15</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Draft-Needs-2015-NFC-East Tue, 21 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[What impact will Tebow have on the Eagles?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tim-Tebow-Eagles.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Tim Tebow is back! Sort of.<br /> <br /> The former Heisman winning quarterback is expected to sign a one-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles for the league minimum.<br /> <br /> Philly adds Tebow to an already crowded and underwhelming collection of talent at the quarterback position. Tebow will compete with Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and a potential draft pick for a roster spot next fall.<br /> <br /> The SEC Network analyst will try to rejuvenate his NFL career. Tebow has not seen game action since 2012 and was last on an NFL roster with the Patriots in 2013.<br /> <br /> What, if anything, does Tebow have left in the tank after two years away from the game?<br /> <br /> The former first round pick has an impact score of 7.09 out of 10.0.<br /> <br /> This score is a relative value based on our projections that can put players in context across positions and over time. A score of seven or above can generally outperform a replacement player in the NFL at his position as a rookie; an eight or above can be expected to start adequately and a player with a rating over nine is a unique, standout player.<br /> <br /> When you compare Tebow’s score to the rest of the starters in the NFL this signing looks like another curious move by Chip Kelly. Only one team, Jacksonville, in the league would benefit from starting the former Gators signal caller, sorry Blake Bortles.<br /> <br /> In fact, based on impact scores, the Eagles would be better off trying to draft a quarterback. There are seven quarterbacks in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2015-quarterback-rankings-projections-winston-mariota-petty”>2015 Draft class</a> that have a better score than Tebow.<br /> <br /> Tim Tebow grades out barely above replacement level talent. This move is likely to be remembered more for making news than for an impact on the field.<br /> <br /> <strong>Starting Quarterback Impact Scores</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> QB Impact Score</th> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 9.50</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 9.30</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 9.19</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 9.08</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 8.88</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 8.80</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 8.68</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 8.61</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 8.60</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 8.45</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 8.44</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 8.33</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 8.32</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 8.20</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 8.11</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 8.06</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 8.04</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 7.98</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 7.91</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 7.83</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 7.77</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 7.75</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 7.72</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 7.70</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 7.67</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 7.42</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 7.25</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 7.22</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 7.20</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 7.20</td> </tr> <tr height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 7.14</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”14″> <td height=”14″ style=”height:19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 7.03</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Tim-Tebow-Impact-Philadelphia-Eagles Mon, 20 Apr 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[LeSean McCoy is headed to Buffalo, what does the trade mean for the Eagles and Bills?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Lesean-McCoy-Philadelphia-Eagles.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills have a trade in place that would send running back LeSean McCoy to Buffalo and linebacker Kiko Alonso to Philadelphia. The trade cannot be made official until the new league year begins next Tuesday, March 10th at 4 pm ET.<br /> <br /> What does the move mean for the Eagles and Bills?<br /> <br /> To find out we simulated the 2014-15 season 50,000 times with McCoy in Buffalo and Alonso in Philadelphia. In the simulations we assumed the Bills would use Rex Ryan’s offensive schemes and that Kiko Alonso is healthy.<br /> <br /> With McCoy in Buffalo and Kyle Orton as the starter, the Bills have an average record of 9.2 wins and 6.8 losses. Buffalo would finish second in the AFC East behind the Patriots but would make the playoffs as the second Wild Card team.<br /> <br /> In another simulation we switched Kyle Orton (he retired, again) for EJ Manuel as the starting quarterback. In this scenario, the Bills finish with an average record of 8.8 wins and 7.2 losses. Again, Buffalo finishes behind the Patriots in the AFC East but in this simulation the difference in quarterback is enough to cause the Bills to miss the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Many expect the Bills to adopt a run first offensive approach with Rex Ryan as Head Coach. In such a scheme, McCoy, a Pro Bowler last year, would average 279 rushing attempts for 1,254 yards and 5.4 touchdowns. We would also expect the former Eagles running back to catch 45 balls out of the backfield for 264 yards and 1.6 touchdowns on average.<br /> <br /> McCoy’s rushing attempts and yards are projected to decrease (for the second year in a row) from his totals a year ago. There are a couple reasons why; first, the attempts are likely to decrease moving from Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense to a less efficient offense quarterbacked by EJ Manuel. McCoy’s yards-per-carry will likely decrease running behind an offensive line that was 30th in rushing efficiency in our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-01-24-2015″>Power Rankings</a> last year.<br /> <br /> The addition of McCoy would help a Bills offense that ranked 20th overall a year ago by making the team’s offensive rushing attack league average. The Bills are expected to have a solid defense but in a quarterback driven league, Buffalo will only go as far as EJ Manuel or <a href=”http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12419545/buffalo-bills-get-matt-cassell-trade-minnesota-vikings”>possibly Matt Cassel</a> takes them.<br /> <br /> As for the Eagles, in addition to getting cap relief, trading McCoy saved Philadelphia $11.95 million against their 2015 cap, the team acquired third year linebacker Kiko Alonso. As a rookie, Alonso finished third in the NFL with 159 tackles but he tore his ACL last July causing the promising defensive player to miss all of last season.<br /> <br /> If healthy, Alonso could make an immediate impact for a Philadelphia defense that was last in our overall rankings. In a world without McCoy, the Eagles are projected to have an 8.3 �“ 7.7 record on average, finish second in the NFC East and miss the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Those results do not sound great to Philly fans but the Eagles are banking on the fact that running backs are replaceable, even one like McCoy that was third in the NFL in rushing yards and fourth in rushing touchdowns since he was drafted in 2009. We would tend to agree with the thought process, the Eagles had one of the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-linemen-position-power-rankings-2014″>best offensive lines</a> in the NFL before last season but injuries kept that group from dominating. It shouldn’t be hard to find a back that can succeed with a line (assuming health) like that. Plus, with the additional cap space Philly can improve its roster elsewhere.<br /> <br /> Trading a high profile running back garners a lot of attention but McCoy isn’t likely to make or break either franchise’s playoff hopes in 2015. Both teams have questions at quarterback and until those are answered, there isn’t much a running back can do in a league where passing is king.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Projected Stats</th> <th> McCoy on Bills (Orton)</th> <th> McCoy on Bills (Manuel)</th> <th> Eagles Without McCoy</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Record</td> <td> 9.2 – 6.8</td> <td> 8.8 – 7.2</td> <td> 8.3 – 7.7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Division</td> <td> 2nd in the AFC East</td> <td> 2nd in the AFC East</td> <td> 2nd in NFC East</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Playoffs</td> <td> 2nd wild card team</td> <td> Miss the Playoffs</td> <td> Miss the Playoffs</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/LeSean-McCoy-Traded-to-Buffalo-Bills Wed, 4 Mar 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[Who’s the favorite to win Super Bowl 50? Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Patriots-New-England-Super-Bowl.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Super Bowl XLIX just ended, so which team is going to win next year? Not surprisingly, the Seahawks and Patriots are the favorites to win Super Bowl 50 in San Francisco.<br /> <br /> The Seahawks are the oddsmakers early 5/1 choice to capture the championship, it would be the Seahawks second title in three seasons. The Patriots have 7/1 odds of being the first repeat champion since Tom Brady and Bill Belichick accomplished the feat in 2004-05.<br /> <br /> The Packers at 8/1, Broncos at 10/1 and Cowboys at 14/1 round out the top five in the early odds for Super Bowl 50.<br /> <br /> San Francisco, with a new coach, is listed at 20/1 odds. Can the 49ers become the first team in NFL history to play the Super Bowl at home?<br /> <br /> The biggest longshots are the Jacksonville Jaguars and Oakland Raiders at 200-to-1.<br /> <br /> <strong>Odds to win Super Bowl 50</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Odds</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 5/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 7/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 8/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos</td> <td> 10/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 14/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 14/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Francisco 49ers</td> <td> 20/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> 22/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chicago Bears</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Houston Texans</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Minnesota Vikings</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Giants</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> St. Louis Rams</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cleveland Browns</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New York Jets</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tampa Bay Buccaneers</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tennessee Titans</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Washington Redskins</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jacksonville Jaguars</td> <td> 200/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Oakland Raiders</td> <td> 200/1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Super-Bowl-50-Odds-to-win Mon, 2 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we took our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the Super Bowl and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Malcolm-Butler-Interception-Super-Bowl-XLIX.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13571″>Patriots vs. Seahawks</a><br /> <br /> Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are Super Bowl Champions once again. New England rallied from a ten-point deficit to defeat Seattle 28-24, capturing the Patriots fourth Lombardi Trophy.<br /> <br /> Brady, Super Bowl XLIX MVP, threw four touchdown passes eclipsing Joe Montana for the most touchdown passes in Super Bowl history. Despite Brady’s heroics, the Patriots needed a goal-line stand in the closing seconds to win.<br /> <br /> <strong>The Seahawks could have won if…</strong><br /> <br /> Trailing 28-24 with just over a minute to play, Russell Wilson found Jermaine Kearse who made an <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OtE1lvTggdT”>amazing David Tyree-like catch</a>. The 33-yard gain set Seattle up first-and-goal from the New England five-yard line and increased the Seahawks’ expected win probability from 18 percent to 66 percent.<br /> <br /> On the ensuing play Marshawn Lynch picked up four more yards on the ground to pull the Seahawks within one yard of reclaiming the lead. Facing second-and-goal from the one-yard line, with one of the best running backs in the league in the huddle, Seattle decided to throw the ball.<br /> <br /> Russell Wilson’s pass was intercepted by rookie Malcolm Butler ending Seattle’s bid to become the first repeat champion since New England a decade ago.<br /> <br /> Had that pass fell incomplete, the Seahawks would have been 57 percent likely to win with two chances to punch the ball in from the one-yard line.<br /> <br /> If Seattle calls Marshawn Lynch’s number on the second down play (instead of a pass), Lynch averaged 4.3 yards per carry against the Patriots in the Super Bowl, and Beast Mode scores a touchdown, Seattle becomes 80 percent likely to win leading 31-28 with less than a minute to play.<br /> <br /> <strong>The Legion of Boom goes out with a whimper</strong><br /> <br /> It is easy to criticize Seattle’s decision to have Russell Wilson throw the ball from the Patriots one-yard line because the play resulted in a game-clinching turnover. But Seattle’s defense failed in the fourth.<br /> <br /> Fifteen minutes from repeating and with a ten point lead, Seattle was 94 percent likely to win. The Seahawks were No. 1 in defensive rush efficiency and No. 2 in defensive pass efficiency. Yet Brady carved up the Legion of Boom completing 13 of 15 fourth quarter attempts for two touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Seattle twice had New England in third-and-long before the Patriots first fourth quarter touchdown. The first third down was from the New England 28-yard line. Brady found Edelman for a 21-yard gain to extend the drive. An incompletion likely leads to a punt with over ten minutes to play. Seattle would have become 98 percent likely to win with possession and a 24-14 lead.<br /> <br /> The second third down (3rd-and-8) was also converted with a 21-yard gain on a pass from Brady to Edelman. An incompletion on that play likely leads to a field goal attempt as New England was at the Seattle 25-yard line. In a 24-17 game (assuming a successful Stephen Gostkowski field goal), Seattle is 92 percent likely to win. Instead the Patriots capped the drive with a touchdown that increased their odds of winning from 5 percent to 26 percent.<br /> <br /> <strong>Additional Game Notes</strong><br /> <br /> Butler’s interception in the end zone swung New England’s expected win probability by 63 percent. It was the biggest play in Super Bowl history and the fifth biggest play in <a href=”http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204301404577173301728098714″>NFL Playoff history</a>.<br /> <br /> For more GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13571″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/GameChangers-NFL-Super-Bowl-2015 Mon, 2 Feb 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[Enjoy a free printable Props Pick’em to play with family and friends at Super Bowl parties.<br /> <br /> Click here to download <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Props_Pickem_Downloadable.pdf”>Props Pick’em</a>. ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/printable-props-pickem-2015 Fri, 30 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[Enjoy a free printable Props Pick’em to play with family and friends at Super Bowl parties.<br /> <br /> Click here to download <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Props_Pickem_Downloadable.pdf”>Props Pick’em</a>. ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/printable-props-pickem-2015 Fri, 30 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[The public’s five most popular Super Bowl prop bets �“ are they ‘sharp’ or ‘square’ wagers? Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Sportsbook.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The public loves betting props. With hundreds of proposition bets ranging from what song will Katy Perry sing first at halftime to the number of receiving yards for Julian Edelman, Super Sunday is a gambler’s paradise.<br /> <br /> Most of the money will come in on the positive side of the bet, as the public likes to back teams and players to succeed.<br /> <br /> With that in mind, here are the five most popular Super Bowl XLIX prop bets.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Rob Gronkowski Receiving Yards</strong></span></span> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 74.5</li> </ul> <br /> The Patriots tight end loves playing <a href=”http://www.si.com/extra-mustard/2015/01/29/marshawn-lynch-rob-gronkowski-mortal-kombat-x-conan”>Mortal Kombat X</a>, <a href=”http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/12/10/7368915/rob-gronkowski-sexy-photos-kittens-patriots”>kittens</a> and catching passes from Tom Brady. Gronk caught 82 passes for 1,124 yards this season. The public is all about the OVER with 75% of the money coming in on Gronkowski to have more than 74.5 yards.<br /> <br /> This line isn’t off by much from our projected boxscore but it’s still a square wager as we would lean on the under.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Marshawn Lynch Rushing Yards</strong></span></span> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 92.5</li> </ul> <br /> This line has moved from 89.5 to 92.5 with 80% of the wagers coming in on the over. We agree with the public as Lynch is projected to rush for over 100 yards. There hasn’t been a 100 yard rusher in the Super Bowl since the Colts and Bears squared off in 2007 when Dustin Rhodes rushed for 113 yards and Thomas Jones rushed for 112 yards.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Coin toss</strong></span></span> <ul> <li> Heads or Tails</li> </ul> <br /> This is one of the most popular Super Bowl bets because it is fast and it takes place before kickoff. Nearly 60% of bettors think the toss will come up heads. In the history of the Super Bowl there have been 24 heads and 24 tails, good luck!<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>National Anthem</strong></span></span> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 2 minutes 1 second</li> </ul> <br /> Idina Menzel sang the National Anthem at the MLB All-Star Game last summer. Guess how long it took her? 2 minutes and 1 second. The public is nearly evenly split on this bet but 52% of gamblers think Menzel will come in under the posted time.<br /> <br /> We are fading their action and like the over.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Will Marshawn Lynch grab his crotch after scoring a TD in the game?</strong></span></span> <ul> <li> Yes: 4/1</li> <li> No: 1/6</li> </ul> <br /> Marshawn Lynch likes to <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OjUMgwx90qb”>grab his crotch</a> after he scores touchdowns. The NFL fined Lynch $20,000 for that gesture in the NFC Championship Game. The league has also said it will penalize the Seahawks 15 yards if the running back touches himself inappropriately again during the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> Bettors are throwing money on Yes with 70% of the action hoping to get 4/1 on their wagers. Lynch isn’t known to conform to NFL policy, your guess is as good as ours on this one.<br /> <br /> For more prop bet action play <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Contests/PropsPickem”>Props Pick’em</a> for free or subscribed for all of our <a href=”https://www.predictionmachine.com/Shop/Buy.aspx”>Super Bowl XLIX Props</a> picks.<br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Publics-5-Most-Popular-Prop-Bets Fri, 30 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[Super Bowl Simulations �“ Which quarterback is better, Tom Brady or Russell Wilson in their second Super Bowl? What would happen if Brady were suspended because of Deflate-Gate? Would Seattle have any hope without Lynch in the big game?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Brady-Wilson-Super-Bowl-2.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Brady (Super Bowl XXXVIII) or Wilson (Super Bowl XLIX)</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Tom Brady is a three-time Super Bowl winner looking to join Hall of Famers Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as the only quarterbacks with four Super Bowl rings. Russell Wilson has won more games through the first three years of his career than any other quarterback in NFL history.<br /> <br /> Which signal caller is better? To answer this question let’s compare apples to apples by looking at each quarterback leading up to their second Super Bowl appearance.<br /> <br /> In 2003-04, Brady’s fourth year in the league, his third year as a starter, the future two-time MVP winner completed 60.2% of attempts for 3,620 yards, 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Brady finished the regular season in the top ten in passing yards and touchdowns among quarterbacks.<br /> <br /> This season, leading up to Wilson’s second Super Bowl, the Seahawks’ captain completed 63.1% of his passing attempts for 3,475 yards, 20 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Wilson did not finish in the top ten in completion percentage, passing yards or passing touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Of course Wilson’s real value is generated outside the pocket. His 849 rushing yards this season are the fifth most all-time for a quarterback. Wilson has averaged 7.2 yards-per-carry, which leads the NFL among qualified rushers.<br /> <br /> Which quarterback is better?<br /> <br /> We are projecting <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Analysis/NFL-Picks-Super-Bowl-XLIX-2015″>Seattle to defeat New England</a> in Super Bowl XLIX. Russell Wilson leads the Seahawks to a victory 57.3% of the time by an average score of 23.5 �“ 20.3.<br /> <br /> To determine which quarterback is better heading into their second Super Bowl, we took Brady from Super Bowl XXXVIII and put him under center for the Seahawks in this year’s title game.<br /> <br /> After 50,000 simulations, with Brady in his second Super Bowl on the Seahawks, Seattle wins 51.8% of the time by an average score of 22.2 �“ 21.4.<br /> <br /> From these simulations we can determine that Russell Wilson is worth 2.4 net points more at this time in his career than Tom Brady from more than ten years ago.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Brady Suspended because of Deflate-Gate</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tom-Brady-Patriots-Deflategate.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL has hired a lawyer to investigate Deflate-Gate. Top investigator Ted Wells said it will take “at least several more weeks” before any conclusions are drawn, which means punishments for the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick and/or Tom Brady are unlikely to occur before Super Bowl XLIX.<br /> <br /> But what if Roger Goodell dropped the hammer on the Patriots and suspended Tom Brady for the Super Bowl before the investigation was complete?<br /> <br /> In a Brady-less Super Bowl, New England would get rolled. With backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the Patriots, Seattle would win 75.5% of the time. An increase in expected win probability by nearly 20%. The Seahawks would cruise to a double digit win, average projected score 26.3 �“ 15.8.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>”I’m just here so I won’t get fined”</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Marshawn-Lynch-Media-Day-Suspended.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Marshawn Lynch spent media day, or the approximate five minutes he attended, answering each question he was asked with a variation of “I’m just here so I won’t get fined.” Lynch has been fined $120,000 since the start of the regular season for violations of the league’s media policy as well as on-field incidents (crotch grabs).<br /> <br /> Lynch could face <a href=”http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/12242300/marshawn-lynch-get-fined-nfl-wearing-beastmode-hat-super-bowl-media-day-sources-say”>additional fines</a> from media day as the NFL mulls whether the Beast Mode hat the Seahawks running back wore was in violations of league rules.<br /> <br /> What would happen if Lynch were suspended from the Super Bowl, whether for media day violations, crotch grabs or other disruptions? If we are going to simulate the Super Bowl without Brady because of Deflate-Gate, we might as well see what happens with Lynch on the sidelines.<br /> <br /> In a Super Bowl without Lynch, the Seahawks (still) win. Seattle would win the Super Bowl 51.2% of the time by an average projected score of 22.3-21.9. Lynch is worth 2.8 net points to Seattle in the title game.<br /> <br /> Reports earlier in the season indicated that Lynch’s days in Seattle were numbered because of dissatisfaction with his contract. If Lynch and the Seahawks were to part ways, the current iteration of the team would still be very competitive with Robert Turbin and Christine Michael at running back.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Super-Bowl-Simulations-2015 Wed, 28 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[Super Bowl Player vs. Player Props �“All projected stats are averages from the 50,000 simulations of Super Bowl XLIX. All props courtesy of Bovada.LV.<br /> <br /> Don’t forget to play our free <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Contests/PropsPickem”>Props Pick’em</a> contest. There is $7,500 prize pool with $2,000 in site credits to the contest winner, plus $10 FREE credit just for participating.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tiger-Woods-Super-Bowl.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Golf Prop</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> What will be higher on games played February 1st?</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Position</th> <th> Spread</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tiger Woods day 1 score at the Masters</td> <td> Golf</td> <td> Golfer</td> <td> Pick (+120)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Julian Edelman Receiving Yards</td> <td> NE</td> <td> WR</td> <td> Pick (-150)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> In his career, Tiger Woods’ round one scoring average is 72. In the Masters his first round scoring average has been 72. Since 2008, the world’s former No. 1 golfer has dealt with reoccurring knee and back pain that has required multiple surgeries. Tiger has not won a major championship since 2008. Even with the lack of wins and the surgeries, Tiger has been consistent. In 2014, Woods participated in eight events and carded a round one average of 72.<br /> <br /> Edelman has averaged 71.5 receiving yards over sixteen games this season. Of course none of those contests were against the Seahawks and the Legion of Boom, second in defensive passing efficiency.<br /> <br /> Projected Yards: Edelman 61.6<br /> <br /> <strong>Pick: Woods day 1 score</strong><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NBA Prop</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> What will be higher on games played February 1st?</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Position</th> <th> Spread</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marshawn Lynch Receiving Yards</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> RB</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dwayne Wade Points</td> <td> MIA</td> <td> SG</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> Dwayne Wade is averaging 21.4 points in 35 games this season. Sunday, the Heat travel to Beantown to play the Celtics. Wade’s scoring average also drops when playing on the road. This season he is averaging 19.9 points per game away from Miami but 23.0 points when playing in South Beach.<br /> <br /> In a Pick’em we will lean toward Lynch. Of course, Wade has missed ten games this season due to injury or rest, there is a chance he could miss this game and if that were to happen then this prop bet does not count.<br /> <br /> Projected Yards: Lynch 22.1<br /> <br /> <strong>Pick: Lynch Receiving Yards</strong><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NHL Prop</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> What will be higher on games played February 1st?</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Position</th> <th> Spread</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sidney Crosby Points</td> <td> PIT</td> <td> C</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Russell Wilson TD Passes</td> <td> SEA</td> <td> QB</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> Crosby has averaged 1.38 points (Goals + Assists) in 593 games over ten years. This season the reigning Hart Memorial Trophy winner (NHL MVP) is averaging 1.19 points per game.<br /> <br /> Projected Touchdowns: Wilson 1.3<br /> <br /> <strong>Pick: Wilson Touchdown Passes</strong><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>MMA Prop</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> What will be higher on games played February 1st?</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Position</th> <th> Spread</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Amount of minutes in the Silva vs. Diaz fight</td> <td> UFC</td> <td> Fighters</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> LeGarrette Blount Rushing Attempts</td> <td> NE</td> <td> RB</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> The over/under for total rushing attempts in the Super Bowl for Blount is set at 14.5. A non-championship mixed martial arts contest consists of three five-minute rounds. Therefore this prop is set at a pick’em.<br /> <br /> We anticipate that Blount will rush the ball more than 15 times, the maximum length of an MMA fight, giving value to backing Blount in this prop bet.<br /> <br /> Projected Rushing Attempts: Blount 16.4<br /> <br /> <strong>Pick: Blount Rushing Attempts</strong><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Premier League Prop</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> What will be higher on games played February 1st?</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Position</th> <th> Spread</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Goals scored in Arsenal vs. Aston Villa</td> <td> Soccer</td> <td> Team</td> <td> -0.5 (-130)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tom Brady TD Passes</td> <td> NE</td> <td> QB</td> <td> +0.5 (EVEN)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> As of writing this article, Arsenal is averaging 1.77 goals for and 1.14 goals against through 22 games. In the same number of games Aston Villa is averaging 0.5 goals for and 1.14 goals against.<br /> <br /> While both soccer clubs are above average, ranking in the top ten in goals allowed in the Barclays Premier League, Tom Brady is not expected to have a big game against the Seahawks.<br /> <br /> Projected Touchdowns: Brady 1.4<br /> <br /> <strong>Pick: Goal scores in Arsenal vs. Aston Villa</strong><br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>College Basketball Prop</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> What will be higher on games played February 1st?</th> <th> Team</th> <th> Position</th> <th> Spread</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Total Points Travis Trice</td> <td> MSU</td> <td> G</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Total 1st Half Points by the Patriots</td> <td> NE</td> <td> Team</td> <td> Pick (-115)</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> Travis Trice is averaging 14.3 points per game for Michigan State. The Spartans senior guard has stepped up his scoring in Big Ten games averaging nearly 17 points in conference play. Trice has scored ten of fewer points in just eight games this season.<br /> <br /> Projected 1st Half Points: Patriots 10.5<br /> <br /> <strong>Pick: Total Points Travis Trice</strong><br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Cross-Sports-Prop-Bets-SuperBowl-2015 Wed, 28 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[All Super Bowl XLIX content aside from the detailed Props Analysis is free to all registered users. If you are not already a registered user, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Register”>Sign Up</a> to view free Super Bowl XLIX picks, play value recommendations, projected boxscore and more. If you have already signed up, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Register”>Login</a>.<br /> <br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/”><em>PredictionMachine.com</em></a><em> is also proud to present our third annual </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Contests/PropsPickem”><em>Props Pick’em</em></a><em> contest</em><em>. An innovative and </em><strong><em>FREE</em></strong><em> contest, </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Contests/PropsPickem”><em>Props Pick’em</em></a><em> asks you to select answers to props for the upcoming NFL title game in Arizona (including two at halftime). The Top 50 point scorers will share in the prize pool of </em><strong><em>$7,500</em></strong><em> in site credits, including </em><strong><em>$2,000</em></strong><em> to the overall contest winner and everyone who participates will earn free site credits.</em><br /> <p> <strong>ResultsFinder Highlight:</strong> One can find in the ResultsFinder that the Lock of the Week in the Conference Championship round of the NFL Playoffs (Packers +7.5 at Seattle) easily covered. All-time, in the NFL Playoffs, Locks of the Week are <strong>17-2 (89% ATS)</strong>, including Super Bowl against-the-spread picks which are <strong>4-1 (80% ATS)</strong> all-time. All playable against-the-spread picks in this NFL postseason are now <strong>6-3 (67% ATS)</strong>. All-time on the site, all against-the-spread picks in the NFL Playoffs are now <strong>41-13 (76% ATS).</strong></p> <div class=”header pickTableHeader”> <div class=”headerContent”> <span class=”pickTableType”>ADDITIONAL GAME INFORMATION</span></div> </div> <a name=”GameInfo”></a> <table class=”standard sortable smallerTable picksTable”> <thead> <tr class=”header”> <th> Home Rot</th> <th> Time (ET)</th> <th> Matchup</th> <th> Boxscore</th> <th> Breakdown</th> <th> Broadcast</th> <th> Analyze</th> <th> Live</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td> 102</td> <td> 6:30 PM</td> <td> NE vs SEA</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Seattle-Seahawks-New-England-Patriots-02-01-2015″>Boxscore</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/New-England-Patriots-Seattle-Seahawks-NFL-Matchup-02-01-15″>Breakdown</a></td> <td> <img class=”broadcast” src=”http://static.PredictionMachine.com/Icons/broadcastIcon.png” title=”NBC” /> NBC</td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Analyze</a></td> <td> <a href=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13571″>Live</a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <b>Super Bowl XLIX Pages:</b><br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Analysis/NFL-Picks-Super-Bowl-XLIX-2015″>Super Bowl XLIX Analysis</a><br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Picks/NFL-Picks-Super-Bowl-XLIX-2015″>Super Bowl XLIX Picks</a><br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Seattle-Seahawks-New-England-Patriots-02-01-2015″>Patriots vs. Seahawks Projected Boxscore</a><br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Super-Bowl-Props-Picks-XLIX-New-England-Patriots-Seattle-Seahawks”>Super Bowl XLIX Props</a><br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/New-England-Patriots-Seattle-Seahawks-NFL-Matchup-02-01-15″>Super Bowl XLIX Game Breakdown</a><br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Contests/PropsPickem”>Play Props Pick’em (Free – win prizes)</a><br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Betting-Analysis”>Play Analyzer</a>]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Player-vs-Player-Prop-Bets-SuperBowl-2015 Tue, 27 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[<em>­­Super Bowl betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Marshawn-Lynch-Seahawks.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFL Trends �“ Super Bowl </strong></span></span><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, the underdog is 13-9-2 (59% ATS).<br /> <br /> Underdogs have covered in six of the last seven Super Bowls and have won outright in four of the last five.<br /> <br /> Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, the OVER is 14-11 (56%).<br /> <br /> In that same time frame, only 5 of the 25 Super Bowls have been decided by three points or less. The current consensus line is the Patriots -1.5.<br /> <br /> If the line remains at -1.5, this will be the third lowest spread in Super Bowl history. The 49ers and Dolphins were -1 favorites in Super Bowl XVI and Super Bowl VII respectively.<br /> <br /> How often does the spread come into account in the Super Bowl? All-time, 29 of 48 Super Bowls have been within one touchdown of the final spread.<br /> <br /> The public loves betting the favorite and the over. The favorite has covered and the game has gone over in just 14 Super Bowls and only twice in this century.<br /> <br /> The NFC holds a 26-22 edge over the AFC in the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> The AFC has been favored over the NFC in 22 Super Bowls. The AFC is 14-8 straight-up and 11-11 against-the-spread in those games. The AFC has failed to cover in four of the last five Super Bowls as a favorite.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Seattle Seahawks</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Russell Wilson is 6-1 straight-up and 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Since 1978, seven defending champions have returned to the Super Bowl the following year. Those teams went 5-2 straight-up and 4-3 against-the-spread.<br /> <br /> No defending champion has ever been an underdog in the Super Bowl. Teams looking to repeat have been favored on average by 8.7 points.<br /> <br /> Seattle is the 14th team to reach Super Bowl with the No. 1 scoring defense in the regular season. The previous 13 teams went 10-3 straight-up and 7-5-1 against-the-spread.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>New England Patriots</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Tom Brady is 3-2 straight-up in the Super Bowl but just 1-4 against-the-spread (0-4 as a favorite ATS) in the big game.<br /> <br /> All-time in the playoffs, when a team won by 30 or more points in the previous round, the team went 18-23-1 (44% ATS) in their next playoff game. New England beat Indianapolis by 38 points in the AFC Conference Championship.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-NFL-Trends-Super-Bowl Mon, 26 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[DEFLATE-GATE: prop bets for the punishment of the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Bill-Belichick-Patriots-cheating.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The New England Patriots defeated the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 in the AFC Championship game. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are heading back to the Super Bowl but did the Patriots cheat?<br /> <br /> The NFL has found that 11 of New England’s 12 game balls were under-inflated. Under league rules, no alteration of the footballs is allowed once officials approve the balls.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Screen%20Shot%202015-01-21%20at%202_12_10%20PM.png” style=”width: 502px; height: 189px;” /><br /> <br /> Doctoring footballs could provide a competitive advantage. Under-inflated balls could allow players to grip the ball better or alter the manner in which the ball travels through the air.<br /> <br /> What penalties, if any, will be imposed on the Patriots?<br /> <br /> This is not the first time that New England and Bill Belichick has been accused of cheating. The NFL fined Belichick $500,000, the New England Patriots $250,000 and docked the Pats a first-round draft pick for having an assistant spy on the New York Jets.<br /> <br /> Bovada.lv is offering two prop bets regarding possible penalties.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Bill Belichick be suspended for at least 1 game for the Deflated Ball scandal?</strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +150</li> <li> No: -200</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>Will Bill Belichick be suspended for the Super Bowl for the Deflated Ball scandal?</strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +750</li> <li> No: -1500</li> </ul> <br /> The odds are long that Belichick misses the Super Bowl and it is doubtful that the Patriots head coach is suspended at all. Of course that won’t stop people from wagering on the most recent NFL scandal.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Deflate-Gate-Props-Bets-Patriots Wed, 21 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Odds to win the Super Bowl XLIX MVP. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tom-Brady-Patriots-New-England.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots will meet in Super Bowl XLIX in Glendale, Arizona. The defending champions opened as 2.5 point favorites at some Las Vegas sportsbooks but as the Patriots dismantled the Colts in the AFC Championship game Sunday night the line began to move towards New England. The consensus line is now a pick’em.<br /> <br /> In anticipation of the release of PredictionMachine.com’s Super Bowl and prop picks we look at the Super Bowl MVP odds.<br /> <br /> Tom Brady is an overwhelming 3/2 favorite. New England’s quarterback won the MVP in two of the Patriots three Super Bowl Championships. Quarterbacks have won four of the last five MVP awards.<br /> <br /> The favorite in the odds to win the Super Bowl MVP Award for the Seahawks is quarterback Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch at 15/4. Beast Mode could become the first running back to win the award since Terrell Davis in 1998.<br /> <br /> The game’s top offensive performer is typically given the award but not always. Last year’s Super Bowl MVP was Seattle’s linebacker Malcolm Smith, a player that was not even a starter until injuries forced him into the lineup last year. The Legion of Boom has Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor at 25/1 and 33/1 odds respectively.<br /> <br /> Smith is a 150/1 longshot to repeat as the big game’s most valuable player.<br /> <br /> <strong>Super Bowl XLIX MVP Odds</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Player</th> <th> Odds</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Tom Brady</td> <td> 3/2</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Marshawn Lynch</td> <td> 15/4</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Russell Wilson</td> <td> 15/4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rob Gronkowski</td> <td> 9/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> LeGarrette Blount</td> <td> 12/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Richard Sherman</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Doug Baldwin</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kam Chancellor</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Julian Edelman</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Darrelle Revis</td> <td> 33/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Earl Thomas</td> <td> 40/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bobby Wagner</td> <td> 50/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Brandon LaFell</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jermaine Kearse</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Byron Maxwell</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> K.J. Wright</td> <td> 66/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Shane Vereen</td> <td> 75/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Danny Amendola</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Patrick Chung</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jamie Collins</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Donta Hightower</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Devin McCourty</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Rob Ninkovich</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Luke Wilson</td> <td> 100/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Stephen Gostkowski</td> <td> 150/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Steven Hauschka</td> <td> 150/1</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Malcolm Smith</td> <td> 150/1</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Field</td> <td> 25/1</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Super-Bowl-XLIX-MVP-Odds Mon, 19 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Marshawn-Lynch-Seahawks-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13390″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Seahawks vs. Packers</span></a></span></h2> <br /> Seattle is returning to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks completed the biggest comeback in conference championship history beating Green Bay 28-22 in overtime. Seattle overcame a 16 point deficit to become the first defending champion since New England to make the Super Bowl in ten years.<br /> <br /> A Super Bowl appearance was improbable for the Seahawks late in the fourth. Green Bay led 19-7 with three minutes to play and the Packers were 99 percent likely to win. Seattle scored 15 points in 44 seconds, aided by a successful onside kick and two-point conversion. The Seahawks then won the game with a 35-yard touchdown on the first series in extra time.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>The Packers could have won if…</strong></span><br /> <br /> Aaron Rodgers could be heading to his second Super Bowl if Mike McCarthy were more aggressive early in the game. Twice the Packers kicked field goals on fourth-and-one from the Seahawks one-yard line in the first quarter. Leading 6-0 Green Bay was 54 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Had the Packers went for it on fourth down and scored touchdowns on both occasions instead of kicking field goals, Green Bay’s expected win probability increases from 54 percent to 75 percent leading 14-0.<br /> <br /> Of course the biggest non-scoring play that impacted Green Bay’s win probability was the successful onside kick executed by Seattle with two minutes to play. With the Seahawks trailing 19-14, the onside kick improved the team’s odds of rallying from 11 percent to 24 percent.<br /> <br /> Had Brandon <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OjtlzghbPOp”>Bostick held onto the onside kick</a>, Green Bay becomes 99 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Additional Game Notes</strong></span><br /> <br /> The Seahawks became just the second team in the Super Bowl era to win a postseason game with four interceptions. Russell Wilson’s fourth pick made Green Bay 99 percent likely to win with five minutes remaining.<br /> <br /> For more GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13390″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13391″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Patriots vs. Colts</span></a></span></h2> <br /> New England dominated Indianapolis in the AFC Championship game. <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OjUU7Otaj3Z”>Tom Brady and Bill Belichick</a> are heading to their sixth Super Bowl after a 45-7 victory, the second most lopsided AFC Championship game ever.<br /> <br /> The Patriots scored touchdowns on the team’s first four second-half possessions. New England spent more time being projected as 99 percent likely to win than Indianapolis did keeping it competitive (at least a 25 percent chance of winning).<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>The Colts could have won if…</strong></span><br /> <br /> There is no one play or series that could have changed this game. New England controlled every phase of the championship match. The Patriots converted twelve of eighteen third downs, forced three turnovers and nearly doubled up the Colts in total yards.<br /> <br /> New England’s third down efficiency repeatedly extended drives. On the Patriots final series of the first half the AFC Champions had successful third and fourth down attempts that extend the team’s lead to 17-7 at the end of the second quarter.<br /> <br /> Had the Colts forced the Patriots into a three-and-out, in a one possession game in the first half, Indianapolis’ expected win probability becomes 25 percent. Instead, at the half Indy was 16 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Additional Game Notes</strong></span><br /> <br /> New England owns Andrew Luck. The Patriots have the won all four games by at least three touchdowns. In the AFC title game Indianapolis was never greater than 40 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For more GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13391″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/GameChangers-NFL-Conference-Championships-2015 Sun, 18 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[2012 NFL Draft Re-Do.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/2012-NFL-Draft.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> One of the best parts of every NFL Draft is having the opportunity to look at the hits and misses of prior years. It is said you can’t judge a draft until after three or four years later.<br /> <br /> Let’s take a look back at the 2012 NFL Draft, which also happened to be the first draft Prediction Machine first projected and analyzed. <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/nfl-draft-2012-top-5-by-position”>Take a look at our ranking back then and see how we did.</a><br /> <br /> Below are the picks each team had in the first round, and how it should have been played out if each team had a chance to do it all over again.<br /> <br /> <strong>1) Indianapolis Colts</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Andrew Luck<br /> <br /> Do-over: Same<br /> <br /> Comment: The only thing the Colts would have changed is turning in their card a few seconds earlier. Luck has been nothing short of incredible for his three seasons in Indianapolis, leading the team to a playoff appearance in each of his three seasons. While he was the consensus top pick, few projected that he would have this much success so early in his career.<br /> <br /> <strong>2) Washington Redskins</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Robert Griffin III<br /> <br /> Do-over: Russell Wilson<br /> <br /> Comment: Not only did Washington give up a bounty of draft picks to move up and select RGIII, they are now stuck with an injury-prone quarterback who has lost his confidence. Wilson would have been a considerable upgrade and the leader the Redskins were hoping RGII would be. This draft pick will haunt the Redskins for years to come as they gave up valuable depth and draft picks all for RGIII.<br /> <br /> <strong>3) Cleveland Browns</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Trent Richardson<br /> <br /> Do-over: Luke Kuechly<br /> <br /> Comment: Richardson never materialized into the star running back the Browns were hoping for. After a decent rookie season, he has regressed to the point of being a liability and was finally shipped off to the Colts for a first round pick early in his second season. Kuechly is one of the game’s best and brightest stars who is capable of being the leader that the Browns sorely need on their defense.<br /> <br /> <strong>4) Minnesota Vikings</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Matt Kalil<br /> <br /> Do-over: Lavonte David<br /> <br /> Comment: Kalil was viewed as a can’t-miss prospect at the left tackle position and while he has shown glimpses of success, Kalil regressed this past season. David is a tackling machine and a first team NFL All-Pro. He is a new breed of lighting quick linebackers that are starting to make their mark in the NFL.<br /> <br /> <strong>5) Jacksonville Jaguars</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Justin Blackmon<br /> <br /> Do-over: Matt Kalil<br /> <br /> Comment: Blackmon has spent more time being suspended than on the football field. Kalil is still catching up to the speed of the NFL but he is a good, young left tackle. Seeing as the Jags have spent a considerable amount of resources upgrading their offensive line the past few years with little success, they could have taken Kalil and gotten off on the right foot three years ago.<br /> <br /> <strong>6) Dallas Cowboys</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Morris Claiborne<br /> <br /> Do-Over: Bobby Wagner<br /> <br /> Comment: An unheralded draft pick three years ago, Wagner has transformed the Seahawks’ defense into one of most dominant defenses in NFL history. Claiborne has failed to live up to the hype that was expected from the former LSU standout. The Cowboys have had a need for a quality linebacker for the past few seasons and Wagner would be an instant upgrade to that defense.<br /> <br /> <strong>7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Mark Barron<br /> <br /> Do-over: T.Y. Hilton<br /> <br /> Comment: Seeing as the Bucs have already shipped Mark Barron to St. Louis, it would be reasonable to assume they were not happy with Barron’s play. Hilton is one of the game’s most exciting and explosive players at wide receiver. I’m sure the Bucs would love a lineup of Vincent Jackson, Mike Evans, and T.Y. Hilton at the wide receiver position.<br /> <br /> <strong>8) Miami Dolphins</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Ryan Tannehill<br /> <br /> Do-over: Alfred Morris<br /> <br /> Comment: Tannehill took a giant step forward this past season when the new offensive coordinator, Bill Lazor, brought some of the up-tempo Eagles offense with him down to South Beach. It still remains to be seen if Tannehill can be a consistent leader and productive quarterback for an extended period. Miami has been searching for a quality running game; they swung and missed with Lamar Miller in the later rounds. Alfred Morris would have given them a stable tailback who could take some of the pressure off a young quarterback.<br /> <br /> <strong>9) Carolina Panthers</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Luke Kuechly<br /> <br /> Do-over: Harrison Smith<br /> <br /> Comment: The Panthers got this pick right the first time. Unfortunately, in this exercise, Kuechly isn’t available. Instead, the best secondary player from this draft is open. Smith is a quality free safety capable of coming down into the box and attacking the run. The Panthers have been searching for saftey help during the past few seasons and Smith would fill that void.<br /> <br /> <strong>10) Buffalo Bills</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Stephon Gilmore<br /> <br /> Do-Over: Alshon Jeffery<br /> <br /> Comment: The Bills don’t have an offense and Jeffery is a mammoth target for any of the rotational quarterbacks. Gilmore wasn’t a bad selection, but Jeffery has shown he is more than capable of taking over a game.<br /> <br /> <strong>11) Kansas City Chiefs</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Dontari Poe<br /> <br /> Re-do: Same<br /> <br /> Comment: I wasn’t a huge fan of Poe three years ago; coming out of Memphis, he was nothing more than a glorified workout performer. He struggled during his rookie season, but has come on strong these past two years. He is beginning to round into a top flight performer and someone the Chiefs can build around for years to come.<br /> <br /> <strong>12: Philadelphia Eagles</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Fletcher Cox<br /> <br /> Do-Over: Same<br /> <br /> Comment: Some might look at Cox’s production and not see the impact that he has, but the Eagles’ defense is dependent on Cox occupying multiple blockers and pressuring the middle of the pocket. The players around him understand his value and the Eagles were able to get an excellent player at this spot.<br /> <br /> <strong>13: Arizona Cardinals</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Michael Floyd<br /> <br /> Do-over: Nick Foles<br /> <br /> Comment: The Cardinals have been searching for a quarterback since Kurt Warner left. Foles, while not the picture of health, has been productive when he has played. Floyd has been consistent but he has failed to live up to the expectation of being the next great NFL wide receiver. In 48 career games, he is averaging just 3.2 receptions per game. Playing opposite Larry Fitzgerald, you would think his numbers would be higher.<br /> <br /> <strong>14) St. Louis Rams</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Michael Brockers<br /> <br /> Do-over: Casey Hayward<br /> <br /> Comment: Brockers has been a quality rotational player along the Rams’ stout defensive line. He, along with Quinn, Long, and Donald, form one of the toughest, most imposing defensive lines in the NFL. Hayward, on the other hand, is one the game’s toughest corners in the NFL when healthy. He led all rookies in INT, and is second in this draft class with nine career interceptions.<br /> <br /> <strong>15) Seattle Seahawks</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Bruce Irvin<br /> <br /> Do-over: Chandler Jones<br /> <br /> Comment: In a surprise pick, the Hawks went after the athletic outside linebacker, Bruce Irvin, to play the strong side linebacker role who can get after the quarterback. Jones leads all players in this draft class with 23.5 sacks. With his versatility and athletic ability, he would be another piece to an already formidable Seahawks defense.<br /> <br /> <strong>16) New York Jets</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Quinton Coples<br /> <br /> Do-over: Vinny Curry<br /> <br /> Comment: Coples is just starting to scratch the surface of his potential. This past season, Curry was a monster coming off the edge, finishing with nine sacks on the season. The Jets have been searching for someone who can consistently rush the passer during the past few seasons.<br /> <br /> <strong>17) Cincinnati Bengals</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick<br /> <br /> Do-over: Janoris Jenkins<br /> <br /> Comment: Kirkpatrick is just another former Alabama player who has yet to live up to their expectations. Jenkins fell into the second round due to his off-field behavior. He has been a standout performer for the Rams. While he might not be in the caliber of a Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, he is capable of shutting down an opponent’s top wide receiver.<br /> <br /> <strong>18) San Diego Chargers</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Melvin Ingram<br /> <br /> Do-over: David DeCastro<br /> <br /> Comment: Ingram has been hampered by injuries throughout his career. Castro has been bit by the injury bug himself, but when he has played, he has dominated. A big, bruising physical guard would give the Chargers much needed stablilty along the interior portion of their offensive line.<br /> <br /> <strong>19) Chicago Bears</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Shea McClellin<br /> <br /> Do-over: Kendall Wright<br /> <br /> Comment: The Bears have moved McClellin around the field to find the right spot for him, but have had little success. With only 7.5 sacks on his resume, McClellin has the makings of a draft bust. Wright leads this draft class with 215 career receptions. He has been able to produce with limited production from his quarterbacks on the Titans.<br /> <br /> <strong>20) Tennessee Titans</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Kendall Wright<br /> <br /> Do-over: Doug Martin<br /> <br /> Comment: The Titans finally got a pick right. It seems that it has been years since they have been able to nail a first round pick. Wright has been a consistent and productive wideout who has lived up to the hype of being a first round selection. With Wright going one pick earlier, the Titans are left to select Doug Martin. With over 2,400 career rushing yards, second in this draft class behind Alfred Morris, Martin would have provided the Titans with stability in the backfield as they try to groom and develop their young quarterbacks.<br /> <br /> <strong>21) New England Patriots</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Chandler Jones<br /> <br /> Do-over: Coby Fleener<br /> <br /> Comment: Jones has been nothing but spectacular for the Patriots. He is a versatile defensive lineman who can wreak havoc in an opponent’s backfield. With Jones having been selected by the Seahawks, the Patriots are left to select the pass catching tight end, Coby Fleener. The Patriots had one of the most dynamic offenses in NFL history when they were able to line up Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez together. With Hernandez out of the league due to legal issues, Fleener (who has 129 receptions and 14 touchdowns in his career) would have been a great replacement. A pass catching tight end that can stretch defenses is what the Patriots had and Fleener fits the mold.<br /> <br /> <strong>22) Cleveland Browns</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Brandon Weeden<br /> <br /> Do-over: Michael Floyd<br /> <br /> Comment: I wasn’t a fan of the Weeden selection back in 2012 and still am not a fan of it today. He was old, unpolished and in need of a lot of development. Floyd, teamed up with an active Josh Gordon, would have given the Browns a decent one-two punch at wideout. The Browns had the opportunities to select two quality players in this draft and struck out on both of them.<br /> <br /> <strong>23) Detroit Lions</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Riley Reiff<br /> <br /> Do-over: Dont’a Hightower<br /> <br /> Comment: Reiff has been plagued by injuries since coming into the league. Hightower is a tackling machine and mainstay in the Patriots defense. With 163 career tackles and 11 sacks, he has been a dynamic force as a middle linebacker for the Patriots. The Lions have been searching for someone with Hightower’s abilities for a number of years.<br /> <br /> <strong>24) Pittsburgh Steelers</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: David DeCastro<br /> <br /> Do-over: Mychal Kendricks<br /> <br /> Comment: Castro is just starting to round into form and has been a success when healthy. Kendricks is one of the leaders for the Eagles’ defense. He is a smart player who has good instincts and always seems to be around the football. He would be a perfect fit in the Steelers scheme with the freedom to roam and the ability to track down ball carriers.<br /> <br /> <strong>25) New England Patriots</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Dont’a Hightower<br /> <br /> Do-over: Bruce Irvin<br /> <br /> Comment: With Hightower going to the Lions a few picks earlier, the Patriots are left with Bruce Irvin. A beast coming off the edge, Irvin has 16. 5 sacks for his career to go along with 3 INT. The schemes and packages that Head Coach Bill Belichick could design with Irvin and Jamie Collins at the linebacker positions would cause opposing coaches to have nightmares.<br /> <br /> <strong>26) Houston Texans</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Whitney Mercilus<br /> <br /> Do-over: Olivier Vernon<br /> <br /> Comment: Both players have the benefit of playing opposite of one of the top NFL sack leaders in Cameron Wake and J.J. Watt. While Mercilus has been productive, he is also a liability in coverage and has shown the consistency in rushing the quarterback. Vernon, a third round pick in 2012, has been a great situational pass rusher off the edge for the Dolphins.<br /> <br /> <strong>27) Cincinnati Bengals</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Kevin Zeitler<br /> <br /> Do-over: Same<br /> <br /> Comment: Zeitler has been a consistent starter for the Bengals and has improved each season. In his rookie season he allowed 4.5 sacks, while last season he only allowed 2.5 sacks. Injuries have limited Zeitler to just 12 games each of the past two seasons. The Bengals are just hoping he can stay healthy because when he is active, they have one of the more consistent and productive offensive lines in the NFL.<br /> <br /> <strong>28) Green Bay Packers</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Nick Perry<br /> <br /> Do-over: Brandon Boykin<br /> <br /> Comment: Perry has had a lackluster performance to start his career. He was drafted to provide an outside pass rusher opposite of Clay Matthews. Perry has only recorded nine sacks in three seasons. Boykin is one of the NFL’s best nickel corners. He has recorded seven interceptions so far in his career.<br /> <br /> <strong>29) Minnesota Vikings</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Harrison Smith<br /> <br /> Do-over: Rueben Randle<br /> <br /> Comment: The Vikings struck gold in the selection of Harrison Smith; trading back up to select him in the first round turned out to be a quality move for the Vikings’ front office. In Randle, the Vikings get a sure- handed receiver who had over 70 receptions this past season. The Vikings have been trying to find their next long term answer at quarterback for a number of years and look to have found it in Teddy Bridgewater. Rueben Randle, Greg Jennings, and Kyle Rudolph would have given the Vikings a nice stable of quality pass catchers for their young quarterback.<br /> <br /> <strong>30) San Francisco 49ers</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: A.J. Jenkins<br /> <br /> Do-over: Quinton Coples<br /> <br /> Comment: In one of the biggest draft busts of this entire draft class, Jenkins has only started three games. He has been traded and still has yet to record a touchdown. Jenkins had the lowest yards-per-reception total in that entire draft class with 7.6, a full three yards lower than the next lowest player. He was a player who should have been selected in the 7th round as a project player, not a first rounder. In Coples, the 49ers get a decent outside pass rusher who can play the run. He might not impress you with his production, but he is a quality player who should continue to get better.<br /> <br /> <strong>31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: Doug Martin<br /> <br /> Do-over: Riley Reiff<br /> <br /> Comment: The Bucs were able to snag themselves one of the top draft picks in Doug Martin. Unfortunately, he is not available in this exercise. Riley Reiff, who has battled through injuries during his first couple of seasons, has started to show some promise. He made 15 starts in 2014, allowed only three sacks and wasn’t called for holding or any false starts on the season. If he can maintain his health, he could develop into a solid tackle in the NFL.<br /> <br /> <strong>32) New York Giants</strong><br /> <br /> Pick: David Wilson<br /> <br /> Do-Over: Vontaze Burfict<br /> <br /> Comment: Not sure what the Giants ever saw in Wilson; he had a fumbling problem in college with 11 career fumbles and the highest fumble rate of any running back in the 2012 class at 2.9 percent. He is out of the league due to health issues. Vontaze Burfict went undrafted out of Arizona State, where he gathered more personal foul penalties than sacks. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Burfict led the Bengals in tackles. He still might have a few screws loose, but he is one heck of a linebacker. The Giants have been looking for depth and consistency from the linebacker core and Burfict would have been the perfect answer to their problems.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2012-NFL-Draft-Re-Do Sun, 18 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>­­NFL Conference Championship Weekend betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Andrew-Luck-Colts.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFL Conference Championship Weekend �“ Situational Trends</strong></span><br /> <br /> All-time, in Conference Championship Weekend, underdogs of 7 or more points are 13-17 (43% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Colts (+7) @ Patriots and Packers (+7.5) @ Seahawks.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, home favorites in Conference Championship Weekend are 34-25 (58% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-7) vs. Colts and Seahawks (-7.5) vs. Packers.</li> </ul> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Additional Notes</strong></span><br /> <br /> Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, there have been 30 conference championship games that were rematches from the regular season. In those games, the winner of the last regular season meeting (there were inter-division rematches where the teams had played each other twice in the regular season) went 18-12 straight-up in the conference championship game.<br /> <br /> In those same games, when a team won the regular season matchup and then was favored by a touchdown or more in the conference championship game, the favorite went 8-3 (73% ATS).<br /> <br /> Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, in conference championship games featuring rematches from the regular season, the favorite went 17-13 (57% ATS).<br /> <br /> Since 1990, when the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams, 31 of 50 conference championship games have been decided by more than seven points.<br /> <br /> Green Bay and Seattle have met in the playoffs two previous times. The Packers were favored by 7.5 points in both contests. Green Bay won both games but only covered in one.<br /> <br /> Tom Brady is facing the Indianapolis Colts for the fifth time in the playoffs. The Patriots have won three of the previous four postseason meetings and are 3-1 ATS in those games.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFL Trends �“ Conference Championship Weekend</strong></span><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> +7.5 @ SEA</td> <td> Outside a 4-0 ATS run in route to the 2011 Super Bowl Championship, the Packers with Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs are 1-5 (17% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td class=”rank”> +7 @ NE</td> <td> All-time, teams that are dogs of seven or more points against Tom Brady in the playoffs are 9-5 (64% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> -7 vs. IND</td> <td> In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots have failed to cover in five straight conference championship games, and are 1-3 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more in the AFC title game.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> -7.5 vs. GB</td> <td> In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks are 5-0-1 (100% ATS) in the playoffs.</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2015-NFL-Trends-Conference-Championship-Round Tue, 13 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Will Peyton Manning retire? Odds Courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Denver-Broncos-Peyton-Manning.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> After another playoff loss, 24-13 to Indianapolis, some have questioned whether this is the end for Peyton Manning.<br /> <br /> Asked if he could definitely say he was planning on returning to the Broncos next season, Manning said, “I’m processing it. I can’t say that. I could not say that.”<br /> <br /> It was reported Monday that Manning had been playing with a torn right quadriceps. The injury helps to explain why Manning had one of his worst postseason performances Sunday against the Colts.<br /> <br /> Change is coming to Denver. Not only will Manning have to rehab from another injury but John Fox is out as Denver’s Head Coach. There are 17 players set to become restricted or unrestricted free agents. Manning has two years left on his contract. Will one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time call it quits?<br /> <br /> Think you know what the five time NFL MVP will do? Oddsmakers at Bovada.lv are offering gamblers the chance to predict Manning’s NFL future.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Will Peyton Manning retire before game 1 of the 2015 regular season?</strong></span></span> <ul> <li> Yes: +400</li> <li> No: -700</li> </ul> <br /> The odds suggest Manning will return for his 18th season, bet $700 to win $100. However, with a Super Bowl ring and numerous all-time records, such as the most passing touchdowns (530), should he?<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Peyton-Manning-retirement-odds Tue, 13 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Finding value in the “Yes”/”No” odds for each team to win the Super Bowl. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Patriots-Colts-Seahawks-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The Seattle Seahawks are +125 favorites to bring home their second consecutive Vince Lombardi Trophy. The defending champions are also -155 to not win the Super Bowl. Which bet has value?<br /> <br /> Below we look at the odds for each team to either win or lose the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> We use our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Conference-Championship-Playoff-Odds-Super-Bowl-2015″>NFL Playoff Odds</a> to determine if either “Yes” or “No” bet for each remaining playoff team is worth wagering. Value is determined as follows: Green Bay is -900 to not win the Super Bowl. In order to feel comfortable placing a bet the Packers would need to be expected to not win it all 90.0% (which is 1/(1+9)) of the time. We project Green Bay will not win it all 78.5% of the time meaning there is no value in placing a “No” bet.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Super Bowl Value Bets</strong></span><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Green Bay Packers “Yes”</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Even with a calf injury, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers provide value in betting Green Bay to win the Super Bowl. Of course, to cash this bet the Packers will have to win as underdogs. Green Bay is already a 7.5 point dog in Seattle this weekend and the early Super Bowl lines have the Cheeseheads as 2.5 point underdogs to the Patriots, the most likely AFC Champion, in a potential title game matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>New England Patriots “No”</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Patriots will not win the Super Bowl. At least that is what you will hope if you walk to the window and put cold hard cash down on this ticket. Tom Brady has been to five Super Bowls and is likely to reach a sixth as our favorite to advance in the AFC Championship game.<br /> <br /> New England is one team in our most likely Super Bowl (Seahawks vs. Patriots). The Pats would be 2.5 point underdogs to Seattle in a championship game that occurs 39.2% of the time.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Indianapolis Colts “Yes”</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Andrew Luck is a longshot to win his first ring. At 7/1 odds, with just less than a 13% chance to win it all, there is value on the Colts to win the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Super Bowl �“ “Yes” and “No” odds</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Will Win Super Bowl</th> <th> Won’t Win Super Bowl</th> <th> Odds to Win</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 5/4</td> <td> 20/31</td> <td> 40.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots</td> <td> 9/5</td> <td> 5/11</td> <td> 25.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 11/2</td> <td> 1/9</td> <td> 21.5%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts</td> <td> 7/1</td> <td> 1/14</td> <td> 12.8%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Super-Bow-Yes-No-Odds Mon, 12 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tom-Brady-Patriots-new-England-3.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13230″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Patriots vs. Ravens</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The New England Patriots became the first team in playoff history to rally twice from two separate 14-point deficits to defeat the Baltimore Ravens Saturday evening. Tom Brady found Brandon LaFell for a 23-yard game-winning touchdown with 5:13 left to play and <a href=”https://vine.co/v/Op3p2rjWbKr”>Duron Harmon intercepted Joe Flacco</a> in the end zone on Baltimore’s next series to seal the 35-31 victory.<br /> <br /> The Wild Card Ravens were as much as 85 percent likely to win leading 28-14 in the third and Baltimore was the projected winner for nearly 70 percent of the game. Yet, New England found a way to win. The Ravens could have been victorious if a few balls had bounced their way.<br /> <br /> New England put the ball on the turf on three occasions. The Patriots recovered two of the fumbles and had a third reversed on replay. It was that third fumble that could have swung the game for Baltimore.<br /> <br /> After Justin Tucker’s 25-yard field goal gave Baltimore a 31-28 lead with nearly ten minutes remaining, the Ravens were 63 percent likely to win. Shane Vereen fumbled on the Patriots next possession and Baltimore recovered in New England territory. However, officials ruled that Vereen was down by contact before the fumble occurred. Seven plays later the Patriots scored the game-winning touchdown and became 80 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Had the Vereen fumble not been overturned on replay, Baltimore with possession and a 31-28 lead would have become 75 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13230″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13231″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Seahawks vs. Panthers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Seattle became the first defending Super Bowl champion to win a playoff game since New England in 2005. The Seahawks, heavy favorites (-710 money-line), handled the Carolina Panthers winning 31-17 Saturday night.<br /> <br /> The Seahawks never trailed and were the projected winner for the entire game. The Legion of Boom picked Cam Newton off twice, once resulting in a pick-six, as Seattle spent most of the second half greater than 90 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Carolina had a chance to make the game interesting as the Panthers were driving in the fourth in a 24-10 game. Unfortunately, Newton threw his second interception of the game, this one in the red zone. Seattle’s Kam Chancellor <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OplBWEBDMmP”>returned the pick 90 yards</a> for a game-sealing touchdown.<br /> <br /> Even if the Panthers score a touchdown on that possession, instead of tossing a pick-six, the Seahawks would have been 96 percent likely to win leading 24-17 with less than seven minutes to play.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13231″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Dez-Bryant-Cowboys-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13232″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Packers vs. Cowboys</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Green Bay overcame a 21-13 deficit in the third quarter to advance to the NFC Championship game. Aaron Rodgers threw for 306 yards and three touchdowns with a calf injury. The Packers were helped to the win by a reversal of a catch by Dez Bryant with less than five minutes left in the game.<br /> <br /> Dallas was facing a fourth-and-two from the Green Bay 32-yard line trailing 26-21. <a href=”https://vine.co/v/ODZTV7z2UZ2″>Dez Bryant made a leaping catch</a> at the Packers one-yard line. Mike McCarthy challenged that Bryant made the catch and officials overturned the ruling on the field. The successful challenge was the first for McCarthy this season.<br /> <br /> Instead of first-and-goal for Dallas, the Packers took over on downs. Green Bay became 94 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Had Bryant’s catch been upheld by replay, the Cowboys expected win probability increases by nearly 20 percent but they still would not have been the projected winner.<br /> <br /> Dallas would need to score a touchdown and be successful on a two-point conversion to lead 29-26. In that scenario the Cowboys become 63 percent likely to win. However, if Green Bay stops Dallas on the two-point attempt, Green Bay would be trailing 27-26, the Packers would have been 52 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13232″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13233″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Broncos vs. Colts</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Denver forced an Indianapolis three-and-out on the Colts first possession. The Broncos then proceeded to march down the field to score the opening touchdown of the game. Peyton Manning and the Broncos were 83 percent likely to win leading 7-0 with 10:00 left in the first.<br /> <br /> From that point forward the Colts dominated the game. Indy scored 14 unanswered points to take a lead at the half. Indianapolis’ offensive line kept Andrew Luck upright (zero sacks allowed) and the Colts defense forced the Broncos to punt six times, turn the ball over on downs twice and limited Peyton Manning to 13 total points. Indy advances to the AFC Championship with a 24-13 victory.<br /> <br /> The Colts were the projected winner for all but one minute of the second half. Broncos fans might wonder what plays could have swung the game in Denver’s favor.<br /> <br /> Joshua Cribbs fumbled a punt following Denver’s second possession in the third quarter. Denver recovered but officials ruled that Cribbs was down by contact. Had the fumble been upheld on replay, the Broncos would have become 36 percent likely to win trailing 21-10. Not necessarily a game-changing play.<br /> <br /> The only play in the second half that would have made Denver the projected winner was a forgettable third-and-five to start the second half. Peyton Manning could have easily run for a first down but instead tried to throw it down field to Emmanuel Sanders, the pass was incomplete. Had Manning picked up the first down with his legs, the Broncos become 54 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13233″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Divisional-2015 Sun, 11 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL Divisional Playoffs including prop bets. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tom-Brady-Ravens-Patriots.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> After a great Wild Card Weekend, we get another Saturday and Sunday full of the NFL Playoffs! Before all the action starts, we pause to look at some of the more interesting games in the Divisional Playoffs to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL Divisional Playoffs.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Patriots vs. Ravens �“ 4:35 PM Saturday</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> New England opened as 7.5 point favorites in Foxboro over Baltimore. The half point was quickly bought by Ravens’ supporters and the Patriots have remained a touchdown favorite all week. However, the juice associated with those seven points has changed.<br /> <br /> Originally it was New England minus seven (-115). A bettor can now get even money laying the points with the Patriots. The money-line for New England has also decreased (opened -350, now -300) as 60 percent of the wagers are on Baltimore.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will all four home teams win this weekend?</strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +200</li> <li> No: -240</li> </ul> <br /> All four home teams <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>have not won</a> in the Divisional round since the 2005 playoffs. From our simulations, there is just a 21.3 percent chance that all four home teams win this weekend. At +200 odds, you need at least 33.3 percent confidence in order to feel comfortable wagering that all four home teams will be victorious, there is no value in placing that bet.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Seahawks vs. Panthers �“ 8:15 PM Saturday</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Week 8 rematch between the Seahawks and Panthers is the only matchup this weekend featuring a double-digit spread. Seattle opened as eleven point favorites; the line dropped to 10.5 briefly but was bet back up to the opening line.<br /> <br /> The total for this NFC Divisional game is the lowest among the four NFL games. The line started at 40.5 points but has been bet down to 39.5.<br /> <br /> <strong>Who will record the most Rushing Yards in the Divisional Playoffs? </strong> <ul> <li> DeMarco Murray (DAL) RB: 2/1</li> <li> Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB: 3/1</li> <li> Eddie Lacy (GB) RB: 7/2</li> <li> C.J. Anderson (DEN) RB: 6/1</li> <li> Jonathan Stewart (CAR) RB: 10/1</li> <li> Justin Forsett (BAL) RB: 10/1</li> <li> Russell Wilson (SEA) QB: 14/1</li> <li> Dan Herron (IND) RB: 20/1</li> </ul> <br /> DeMarco Murray is the favorite and for good reason. We project the Dallas running back to rush for 106.4 yards. Murray is the only back projected to break the century mark this weekend.<br /> <br /> If you are looking for a value play, C.J. Anderson is projected to be the second highest rusher in the Divisional round totaling 89.2 yards on the ground.<br /> <br /> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Packers vs. Cowboys �“ 1:05 PM Sunday</strong></span></span><br /> <br /> Green Bay is 8-0 at home and is averaging nearly 40 points per game on Lambeau Field. As such, the Packers opened as near touchdown favorites (-6.5) over Dallas in a rematch of the “Ice Bowl” in 1967. Not surprisingly, the line has moved in Dallas’ favor (+5.5) as the Cowboys are the most public of public teams.<br /> <br /> Game time temperatures are forecasted to be below freezing. The total opened at 53 points. With the weather and Aaron Rodgers possibly at <a href=”http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/2014/story/_/id/12137927/green-bay-packers-qb-aaron-rodgers-slight-calf-tear”>less than 100 percent</a>, the money has come in on the under, moving the line to 52.5 points.<br /> <br /> <strong>Who will record the most Receiving Yards in the Divisional Playoffs? </strong> <ul> <li> Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR: 15/4</li> <li> Jordy Nelson (GB) WR: 11/2</li> <li> T.Y. Hilton (IND) WR: 6/1</li> <li> Dez Bryant (DAL) WR: 6/1</li> <li> Randall Cobb (GB) WR: 7/1</li> <li> Rob Gronkowski (NE) TE: 7/1</li> <li> Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) WR: 15/2</li> <li> Steve Smith (BAL) WR: 8/1</li> <li> Julian Edelman (NE) WR: 8/1</li> <li> Torrey Smith (BAL) WR: 14/1</li> <li> Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) WR: 16/1</li> <li> Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR: 18/1</li> </ul> <br /> Demaryius Thomas is projected to have 97.3 receiving yards, Jordy Nelson averages 96.5 receiving yards in his Divisional matchup. These are the two favorites to finish with the most receiving yards this weekend and they are the two players projected to have the most yards.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Broncos vs. Colts �“ 4:40 PM Sunday</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> There has been little line movement heading into the third matchup between Peyton Manning and his former team. The Broncos opened as touchdown favorites and remain favored by seven over the Colts. The Denver money-line has shifted slightly from -315 to -320.<br /> <br /> The over/under opened at 53 points but has risen to 54 points as bettors anticipate a high scoring game. The oddsmakers opened the Denver/Indy game with the highest total in the Divisional Round.<br /> <br /> <strong>Who will record the most Passing Yards in the Divisional Playoffs? </strong> <ul> <li> Andrew Luck (IND) QB: 5/2</li> <li> Peyton Manning (DEN) QB: 3/1</li> <li> Aaron Rodgers (GB) QB: 3/1</li> <li> Tom Brady (NE) QB: 5/1</li> <li> Tony Romo (DAL) QB: 7/1</li> <li> Joe Flacco (BAL) QB: 9/1</li> <li> Russell Wilson (SEA) QB: 20/1</li> <li> Cam Newton (CAR) QB: 25/1</li> </ul> <br /> The Colts quarterback was a 7/4 favorite last week to pass for the most yards. Luck obliged by throwing for 376 yards against the Bengals, so he is once again the favorite to have the most passing yards in the Divisional Round. However, we project Luck’s predecessor, Peyton Manning, to throw for 295 yards against the Colts and outduel the young star.<br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-line-movement-divisional-010915 Fri, 9 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>­­NFL Divisional Playoffs betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Manning-Luck-Broncos-Colts.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>NFL Divisional Playoffs �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> All-time, in the Divisional Playoffs, underdogs of 7 or more points are 33-40-1 (45% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Ravens (+7) @ Patriots, Panthers (+10.5) @ Seahawks and Colts (+7) @ Broncos.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, in the playoffs, the OVER in games with a total of 53 or more points is 18-14 (56%) over.<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys/Packers (over/under 53 points) and Colts/Broncos (over/under 54 points).</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>Additional Notes</strong><br /> <br /> Do you like betting favorites? All four favorites in the Divisional Playoffs have not covered since 1991.<br /> <br /> Will Carolina’s playoff run end in Seattle this weekend? If history is any indication it will. All-time, road underdogs of ten or more points are 9-42 (18%) straight-up.<br /> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Divisional Playoffs</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> BAL</td> <td class=”rank”> +7 @ NE</td> <td> In the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens in the playoffs are 10-4 (71% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> CAR</td> <td> +10.5 @ SEA</td> <td> All-time in the regular season, double-digit dogs are 559-461-23 (55% ATS), in the playoffs 24-28-1 (46% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> DAL</td> <td> +6 @ GB</td> <td> All-time, the Cowboys have played in 37 playoff games and have only been dogs in ten and are 4-6 (40% ATS) in those situations.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> DEN</td> <td> -7 vs. IND</td> <td> In his career, Peyton Manning in the Divisional Playoffs is 3-6 (33% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> GB</td> <td> -6 vs. DAL</td> <td> In the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers in the playoffs are 5-4 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> IND</td> <td> +7 @ DEN</td> <td> All-time, teams facing Peyton Manning in the playoffs as touchdown or greater dogs are 4-2 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> NE</td> <td> -7 vs. BAL</td> <td> In his career, Tom Brady as a home favorite in the playoffs is 7-10-1 (41% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:20px;”> SEA</td> <td> -10.5 vs. CAR</td> <td> Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded to 12 teams, double-digit favorites in the Divisional Playoffs are 12-6 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Divisional-Round Tue, 6 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Broncos vs. Colts �“ what would happen if Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck switched teams?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Andrew-Luck-Peyton-Manning-Colts-Broncos.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Sunday, the Broncos and Colts will meet in the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Denver has never beat Indy in the postseason. The Colts defeated the Broncos in the 2003 and 2004 AFC Wild Card games. Of course that was with Peyton Manning at quarterback.<br /> <br /> With Manning, we project Denver to beat Indianapolis this weekend. After 50,000 simulations, the Broncos win 70 percent of the time by an average score of 31-23.<br /> <br /> Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck will forever be linked due to their origin in Indianapolis. As such, let’s have some fun and see what would happen if these quarterbacks switched teams.<br /> <br /> Switching quarterbacks, the Broncos (with Luck) would be victorious 59 percent of the time against the Colts (with Manning). The average projected score would be 28-24.<br /> <br /> The Broncos, even when switching Luck for Manning, are still the better overall team. Denver ranks No. 2 in our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-12-29-2014″>Power Rankings</a>, Indianapolis No. 6. While Manning may have been a disappointment to fantasy owners down the stretch this season with the Broncos enjoying success running the ball, Peyton is still the superior quarterback to Luck as we expect the Colts (with Manning) to keep the contest in Mile High within a touchdown.<br /> <br /> What would happen if Peyton Manning were the quarterback for both the Broncos and Colts?<br /> <br /> In an all-Manning bowl, the Broncos (with Manning) would triumph over the Colts (also with Manning) 64% of the time. The average projected score after 50,000 simulations would be Denver 31, Colts 25.<br /> <br /> Denver and Indianapolis are fortunate to have Manning and Luck, two of the best quarterbacks in the league. Manning is arguably the best quarterback of all-time and almost every team would improve with his addition and regardless of what quarterback plays for Denver this weekend (Manning or Luck), the Broncos are a better overall team than the Colts.<br /> <br /> <strong>Switching Quarterbacks �“ projected scores</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Denver</th> <th> Indianapolis</th> <th> Winning Team</th> <th> Projected Score</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> With Manning</td> <td> With Luck</td> <td> Denver, 70% of the time</td> <td> 31-23</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> With Luck</td> <td> With Manning</td> <td> Denver, 59% of the time</td> <td> 28-24</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> With Manning</td> <td> With Manning</td> <td> Denver, 64% of the time</td> <td> 31-25</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Flipping-Manning-for-Luck-Playoffs-2015 Wed, 7 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Cam-Newton-Carolina-Panthers-3.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13057″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Panthers vs. Cardinals</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Carolina defense forced three turnovers and held Arizona to 78 total yards of offense, an NFL postseason record, in the franchise’s first postseason victory in nine years. The Panthers beat the Cardinals 27-16 after trailing at the half. Carolina took control of the game with two scores in less than two minutes in the third.<br /> <br /> A poor Arizona punt set up a <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OdJtIxJlMnX”>39-yard touchdown</a> pass from Cam Newton to Fozzy Whittaker with 5:36 to play in the third. Arizona returner Ted Ginn Jr. fumbled the ensuing kickoff, Carolina recovered at the Cardinals three-yard line and four plays later Newton found Mike Tolbert for a one-yard score. The Panthers expected win probability increased from 57 percent to 96 percent after scoring two touchdowns in one minute and 32 seconds.<br /> <br /> Ryan Lindley will rightfully take a lot of blame for the Cardinals loss. The third string quarterback completed less than 60 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions. According to ESPN Stats & Info, 25 percent of Lindley’s passes were off target, worse than the NFL average.<br /> <br /> Lindley did have a chance to be a hero, trailing 27-14, Arizona had an opportunity to get back into the game after recovering a Newton fumble at the Carolina eight-yard line early in the fourth. Bruce Arians dialed up a Lindley pass, in which <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OdJLxerTp7Q”>Luke Kuechly picked the ball off</a> all but sealing the game for Carolina.<br /> <br /> The Cardinals expected win probability decreased from seven percent to one percent after the interception. Had Arizona scored on that possession instead of turning the ball over, the Cardinals would have had a 25 percent chance of winning trailing 27-21.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13057″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13058″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Ravens vs. Steelers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Joe Flacco threw two second half touchdowns as Baltimore leveled Pittsburgh 30-17 to win the Wild Card matchup at Heinz Field. The Ravens now have ten roads wins in the playoffs, tied with the Packers for the most in NFL history.<br /> <br /> Ben Roethlisberger attempted to rally Pittsburgh in the fourth with the Steelers trailing 23-15 but Big Ben was intercepted by Terrell Suggs deep in Pittsburgh territory with eight minutes remaining. Joe Flacco threw a touchdown pass on the next play. Baltimore became 99 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> The turnover was devastating but it was still unlikely that Pittsburgh would have won the game even if the Steelers managed to score a touchdown on that drive.<br /> <br /> Wipe the interception off the board; give Pittsburgh a touchdown and a two-point conversion. In a tied game with possession, Baltimore is still 55 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13058″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Dallas-Cowboys-Tony-Romo.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size: 16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13060″><span style=”color: rgb(178, 34, 34);”>Cowboys vs. Lions</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Dallas Cowboys rallied from a 20-7 second half deficit (just a 13% chance to win) to beat Detroit 24-20 on Wild Card Sunday. Tony Romo threw the <a href=”https://vine.co/v/Odp3pJKq2gq”>gaming winning touchdown</a> with just over two minutes remaining.<br /> <br /> Tony Romo and the Cowboys won their first playoff game in five years, but this game will be remembered for a reversed pass interference penalty.<br /> <br /> With 8:25 to play, Detroit leading 20-17, Matthew Stafford attempted a pass to Brandon Pettigrew on third-and-one from the Dallas 46-yard line. The pass was incomplete but defensive pass interference was called. The head official made the announcement only for the flag to be waved off moments later. The Lions took a delay of game and then punted (horribly, net gain of ten yards) the ball away. Despite the unfortunate turn of events, Detroit still had a 55 percent chance to win.<br /> <br /> Had the officials stuck with the original call, pass interference, Detroit’s expected win probability increases to 86% with a fresh set of downs inside Cowboys territory.<br /> <br /> If you are a Lions fan, you are rightfully upset with the officials for picking up the flag. You should also be upset with Head Coach Jim Caldwell for not going for it on 4th-and-1 following the flag being picked up.<br /> <br /> Had Detroit been aggressive and picked up the first down, the Lions become 82 percent likely to win. Failing to convert on the fourth down makes Detroit 53 percent likely to win, not much of a difference compared to the shanked punt.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13060″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13059″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Colts vs. Bengals</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Andrew Luck and the Colts dominated the Bengals winning 26-10 in the AFC Wild Card game Sunday. Cincinnati is the first team in NFL history to lose four consecutive opening round playoff games.<br /> <br /> Indianapolis never trailed, the Colts were the projected winner for the entire game. Indy spent nearly 40 percent of the game being greater than 90 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> The biggest swing play of the game was a ridiculous <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OdwLILx9u7x”>36-yard touchdown pass</a> from Andrew Luck to Donte Moncrief as the quarterback was falling to the turf in the third quarter. The touchdown gave Indianapolis a 20-10 lead, the Colts expected win probability increased more than ten percent to become 89 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> There was not one play, drive or missed possession that Cincinnati can look back on as a potential gamechanger. The Bengals first five drives in the second half ended in a punt, the sixth was aborted when Andy Dalton was sacked and fumbled.<br /> <br /> Indy ruled in the Wild Card game but the Colts have already been instilled as 7.5 point underdogs next week in Denver.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=13059″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> </h2> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-WildCard-2015 Sun, 4 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL Wild Card Weekend including prop bets. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Cam-Newton-Carolina-Panthers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Playoffs! With the NFL Playoffs starting Saturday, we pause to look at some of the more interesting games in Wild Card Weekend to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL Wild Card Weekend.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Arizona @ Carolina �“ Saturday 4:20 PM</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> This line opened Panthers -4 with 65 percent of the action on Carolina to cover. On Tuesday afternoon the line started to move. The consensus is now Carolina -6.5 but it is doubtful the line climbs as high as a touchdown.<br /> <br /> <strong>How many Wild Card teams will win this weekend?</strong> <ul> <li> Over 1.5: +150</li> <li> Under 1.5: -180</li> </ul> <br /> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Super-Bowl-Playoff-Odds-2015″>We are predicting</a> no Wild Card teams to win, but all four have at least a 32% chance of advancing to the Divisional Round.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Baltimore @ Pittsburgh�“ Saturday 8:15 PM</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Steelers opened as greater than field goal favorites against the Ravens. The action on this game favors Pittsburgh with nearly 70 percent of the bets being placed on Big Ben and company. However, despite the line peaking at Pittsburgh -4, the Steelers are now favored by just the standard home field advantage (3 points).<br /> <br /> <strong>Will a Wild Card team win the Super Bowl? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +900</li> <li> No: -1800</li> </ul> <br /> Last year, the odds on this prop bet were 4/1 that a Wild Card team would win the Super Bowl. A year ago our NFL Playoff Odds predicted that a Wild Card team had a 14.1 percent chance of winning it all. This year, there is just a 5.5 percent chance that a Wild Card team runs the table.<br /> <br /> There is no value in betting that a Wild Card team will win the Super Bowl this year.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Cincinnati @ Indianapolis�“ Sunday 1:05 PM</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> There has been serious buy back on this game. Indianapolis opened as a six point favorite. Though the money is evenly split on this game the line has continued to decrease.<br /> <br /> The Colts are now three point favorites at home over Andy Dalton and the Bengals. The over/under in this game has also been bought down. The total opened at 51.5 but is now at 49 points.<br /> <br /> <strong>Who will record the most Passing Yards Wild Card Weekend? </strong> <ul> <li> Andrew Luck (IND): 7/4</li> <li> Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): 2/1</li> <li> Matthew Stafford (DET): 4/1</li> <li> Tony Romo (DAL): 7/1</li> <li> Joe Flacco (BAL): 10/1</li> <li> Andy Dalton (CIN): 12/1</li> <li> Cam Newton (CAR): 15/1</li> </ul> <br /> Ben Roethlisberger threw for nearly 200 more passing yards than Andrew Luck in the regular season but the Colts young star is the favorite to win this prop bet.<br /> <br /> We project Luck to throw for 287.9 passing yards, nearly 30 yards shy of Roethlisberger’s projected total in Wild Card Weekend. Big Ben is projected to throw for 314.7 passing yards against Baltimore.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Detroit @ Dallas �“ Sunday 4:40 PM</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Cowboys opened as the only favorites of a touchdown or more in Wild Card Weekend. Dallas opened favored by eight points but the consensus line quickly became the Boys by a touchdown at home.<br /> <br /> More than 70 percent of the wagers placed on this game have been on Dallas. This is not surprising. The Cowboys tend to be over-bet when playing at home, as favorites and following a win.<br /> <br /> “The Seahawks and Patriots remain clear favorites to meet in the Super Bowl, but we have seen quite a bit of support for the Dallas Cowboys who have already dropped from 9-1 to 15-2 and continue to be bet.”<br /> <br /> -Kevin Bradley, Sports Book Manager, Bovada.lv<br /> <br /> As we noted above, Dallas tends to be over-bet as a public team. This tendency applies not only to game bets but to future bets such as odds to win the Super Bowl. At 15-2 odds, the Cowboys are the fifth favorites to win it all.<br /> <br /> According to our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Super-Bowl-Playoff-Odds-2015”>NFL Playoff Odds</a>, Dallas is as likely to win it all as the Wild Card Baltimore Ravens. Seattle, Denver, New England and Green Bay are all serious favorites to win the Super Bowl, we give each team double-digit odds to win it all.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-line-movement-wild-card-010215 Fri, 2 Jan 2015 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>­­NFL Wild Card Weekend betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Joe-Flacco-Baltimore-Ravens(1).jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>NFL Wild Card Weekend �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> All-time, in Wild Card Weekend, road underdogs of three or more points are 39-49-1 (44% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Cardinals (+5) @ Panthers, Ravens (+3.5) @ Steelers, Bengals (+4) @ Colts, and Lions (+7) @ Cowboys.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, in Wild Card Weekend, home favorites of seven or more points are 15-11 (58% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (-7) vs. Lions.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>Additional Notes</strong><br /> <br /> All-time, there have only been six playoff games featuring a team with seven wins. Five occurred in the 1983 playoffs when the regular season was shortened to nine games due to a strike, the other was in 2011 when the Seahawks won the NFC West with a 7-9 record.<br /> <br /> All-time, the team with seven wins has a 4-2 straight-up record. The 2011 Seahawks, the only other team with a true losing record to make the playoffs, won its Wild Card round game as well.<br /> <br /> The last time all four home teams on Wild Card Weekend were the favorites �“ 2007.<br /> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Wild Card Weekend</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td class=”rank”> +5 @ CAR</td> <td> All-time, in the playoffs, the OVER in games with a total of 39 or fewer points is 102-76-6 (57%).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td> +3.5 @ PIT</td> <td> In the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as underdogs in the playoffs are 6-3 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> -5 vs. AZ</td> <td> Cam Newton as a home favorite in the regular season is 18-13 (58% ATS) but 0-1 ATS in the playoffs.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> +4 @ IND</td> <td> In the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals in the playoffs are 0-3 straight-up and 0-3 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td> -7 vs. DET</td> <td> In the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys in the playoffs are 1-3 straight-up and 2-2 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> +7 @ DAL</td> <td> All-time, in the playoffs, underdogs of seven or more points are 65-80-3 (45% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> -4 vs. CIN</td> <td> Andrew Luck is 29-17-2 (63% ATS) in the regular season, 0-3 ATS in the playoffs.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> -3.5 vs. BAL</td> <td> In the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers at home in the playoffs are 6-2 (75% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Wild-Card Mon, 29 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Finding value in Super Bowl exact matchup odds. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Broncos-Seahawks.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL Playoffs kick off Saturday, the defending champion Seattle Seahawks are 12/5 favorites to win the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> Below we look for value in the odds for each exact Super Bowl matchup. We utilize our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Super-Bowl-Playoff-Odds-2015″>NFL Playoff Odds</a> to find the likelihood of a given team reaching the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> To determine if a matchup has value we look at what the current odds are for both teams to reach the Super Bowl and compare that to our projected odds for that matchup to occur. For example, a New England vs. Dallas Super Bowl is listed at 9/1, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on this prop bet this Super Bowl would need to occur 10.0% (which is 1/(9+1)) of the time. We project the Patriots and Cowboys to play each other for the title 2.5% of the time, meaning there is no value at 9/1 odds.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Seahawks vs. Patriots</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> This is the oddsmakers’ most likely Super Bowl. New England vs. Seattle has 9/4 odds to occur, need 30.8% confidence in order to make the bet. However, this is the matchup with the greatest discrepancy between our projected odds and the odds needed in order to feel comfortable placing a wager.<br /> <br /> We project that the Patriots and Seahawks square off in the Super Bowl 17.0 percent of the time. There is no value in placing this bet.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Broncos vs. Seahawks</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> This is our most likely Super Bowl. Seattle is over 50 percent likely to win the NFC Championship and Denver is the most likely AFC team to reach the title game.<br /> <br /> We project that there is a 20.4 percent chance of a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. At 11/2 to odds, needing 15.4% confidence to make the wager, there is value in placing this wager.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Broncos vs. Packers</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Denver defeated Green Bay in Super Bowl XXXII. Bovada.lv gives 12/1 odds for a repeat of the 1998 title game. In order to feel comfortable placing this wager, you would need 7.7 percent confidence. We project this Super Bowl to occur 13.1 percent of the time providing the greatest value among all the listed odds.<br /> <br /> Other matchups with value: Colts vs. Seahawks, Colts vs. Packers, Ravens vs. Seahawks and Ravens vs. Packers.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Super Bowl Exact Matchup Odds</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Super Bowl Exact Matchup</th> <th> Odds</th> <th> Odds Needed</th> <th> Proj. Chance</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 9/4</td> <td> 30.8%</td> <td> 17.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 11/2</td> <td> 15.4%</td> <td> 10.9%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 9/1</td> <td> 10.0%</td> <td> 2.5%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots vs Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 33/1</td> <td> 2.9%</td> <td> 1.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions</td> <td> 33/1</td> <td> 2.9%</td> <td> 1.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New England Patriots Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 60/1</td> <td> 1.6%</td> <td> 0.2%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 11/2</td> <td> 15.4%</td> <td> 20.4%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 12/1</td> <td> 7.7%</td> <td> 13.1%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos vs Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 20/1</td> <td> 4.8%</td> <td> 3.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 75/1</td> <td> 1.3%</td> <td> 1.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions</td> <td> 75/1</td> <td> 1.3%</td> <td> 1.4%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 125/1</td> <td> 0.8%</td> <td> 0.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 12/1</td> <td> 7.7%</td> <td> 3.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 28/1</td> <td> 3.4%</td> <td> 2.0%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 50/1</td> <td> 2.0%</td> <td> 0.5%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers vs Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 175/1</td> <td> 0.6%</td> <td> 0.2%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers vs Detroit Lions</td> <td> 175/1</td> <td> 0.6%</td> <td> 0.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 275/1</td> <td> 0.4%</td> <td> 0.0%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 25/1</td> <td> 3.8%</td> <td> 5.3%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 50/1</td> <td> 2.0%</td> <td> 3.4%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 75/1</td> <td> 1.3%</td> <td> 0.8%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 300/1</td> <td> 0.3%</td> <td> 0.4%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions</td> <td> 300/1</td> <td> 0.3%</td> <td> 0.4%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Indianapolis Colts vs Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 500/1</td> <td> 0.2%</td> <td> 0.1%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 33/1</td> <td> 2.9%</td> <td> 4.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 66/1</td> <td> 1.5%</td> <td> 2.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 100/1</td> <td> 1.0%</td> <td> 0.6%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 375/1</td> <td> 0.3%</td> <td> 0.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions</td> <td> 375/1</td> <td> 0.3%</td> <td> 0.3%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens vs Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 500/1</td> <td> 0.2%</td> <td> 0.1%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks</td> <td> 33/1</td> <td> 2.9%</td> <td> 1.5%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers</td> <td> 66/1</td> <td> 1.5%</td> <td> 1.0%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals vs Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> 100/1</td> <td> 1.0%</td> <td> 0.2%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers</td> <td> 375/1</td> <td> 0.3%</td> <td> 0.1%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions</td> <td> 375/1</td> <td> 0.3%</td> <td> 0.1%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals</td> <td> 500/1</td> <td> 0.2%</td> <td> 0.0%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Super-Bowl-Exact-Matchups-2015 Mon, 29 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Ravens-Browns-Torrey-Smith.png” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12961″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Ravens vs. Browns</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> To clinch a playoff spot, Baltimore needed to beat Cleveland and have San Diego lose to Kansas City. The Ravens had a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-NFL-Playoff-Scenarios-122314″>36.1 percent chance of making the playoffs</a> before the start of Sunday’s action.<br /> <br /> The Chiefs took care of business dropping the Chargers 19-7 in Arrowhead but Baltimore struggled against the Browns, a team starting rookie quarterback Connor Shaw.<br /> <br /> Entering the fourth, Baltimore trailed 10-3 and had a 25 percent chance of winning. The Ravens scored 17 unanswered and took the lead for good on a 16-yard touchdown pass from Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith with less than eight minutes remaining.<br /> <br /> The game-changing play was a 53-yard pass from Flacco to Torrey Smith on the play before the lead changing touchdown. Baltimore’s expected win probability increased from 39 percent to 70 percent following the long completion.<br /> <br /> The Ravens rally clinched the final AFC Wild Card spot; Baltimore has now reached the playoffs in six of the last seven years, which is the entirety of John Harbaugh’s and Joe Flacco’s tenture with the Ravens.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12961″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12963″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Chargers vs. Chiefs</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Win and you’re in. San Diego controlled its own playoff destiny Sunday but failed to beat Kansas City falling 19-7 on the road. The Bolts will look back on this game as one of missed opportunities.<br /> <br /> With just over eight minutes left, trailing 19-7, a touchdown pass to Eddie Royal was wiped off the board after replay showed that the ball hit the ground. Two plays later, the Chargers turned the ball over on downs and San Diego failed to score after having the ball first-and-goal from the Kansas City three-yard line.<br /> <br /> San Diego was never projected to win this game and had less than a one percent chance of winning after turning the ball over on downs. Had the Bolts scored a touchdown, the Chargers expected win probability would have increased to 10 percent.<br /> <br /> Kansas City was a long shot to reach the postseason heading into Week 17. The Chiefs had a 5.7 percent chance of making the playoffs needing to beat San Diego and have both Baltimore and Houston lose.<br /> <br /> At one point on Sunday it appeared that the Chiefs might back into the playoffs. Kansas City was leading 19-7 in the third, at the same time the Jaguars were leading the Texans 17-14 and Baltimore trailed 10-3.<br /> <br /> Even with everything going Kansas City’s way, the Chiefs were just 33 percent likely to make the playoffs. Both Houston and Baltimore rallied to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12963″>click here</a>.<br /> <h2> </h2> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12962″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Packers vs. Lions</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Aaron Rodgers returned from a calf injury to lead Green Bay to a 30-20 victory over Detroit Sunday. The win earned the Packers their fourth straight NFC North title and a first round bye in the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Detroit is now winless in Wisconsin since 1991 but it looked like that streak might come to an end early in the fourth. Trailing 21-14, the Lions blocked Mason Crosby’s 52-yard field goal attempt to keep it a one-possession game.<br /> <br /> However, on the next play following the block, Detroit fumbled the ball on an aborted handoff between Matthew Stafford and Joique Bell. The Lions expected win probability decreased from 15 percent to 5 percent.<br /> <br /> Detroit had another opportunity late in the game after scoring a touchdown to make it 30-20. The Lions failed on a two-point attempt and the Packers recovered the ensuing onside kick.<br /> <br /> Even if the two-point conversion had been good, Detroit trailing 30-22, and the Lions recovered the onside kick with 1:45 left to play, Green Bay would have been 99 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12962″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12964″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Panthers vs. Falcons</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Carolina’s defense stifled Atlanta’s offense and the Panthers cruised to 34-3 victory. The win gave the Panthers the NFC South crown and eliminated the Falcons from the playoffs.<br /> <br /> The Panthers defense sacked Matt Ryan six times and forced three turnovers, including two interceptions returned for a touchdown. The first pick-six in the second quarter broke the game wide open. The 31-yard interception return gave Carolina a 17-3 lead and increased the Panthers’ expected win probability from 70 percent to 85 percent.<br /> <br /> Carolina was the projected winner for 98.4 percent of the game.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12964″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12956″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Steelers vs. Bengals</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Pittsburgh Steelers clinched the AFC North thanks to 212 all-purpose yards from Antonio Brown. The Steelers will host a Wild Card game next Saturday but it could have just as easily been Cincinnati that claimed the division crown.<br /> <br /> After Andy Dalton found Jermaine Gresham for a five-yard touchdown to cut the Pittsburgh lead to 20-17 in the fourth, the Bengals were able to pick Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers ensuing drive.<br /> <br /> Cincinnati drove the ball into Pittsburgh’s territory but receiver A.J. Green was stripped by Pittsburgh’s Antwon Blake with four minutes remaining, the Steelers recovered the fumble. Pittsburgh’s expected win probability increased from 53 percent to 85 percent.<br /> <br /> Had Green held onto the ball, Cincinnati first-and-10 from the Steelers 31-yard line, the Bengals would have become 60 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12956″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week17-2014 Sun, 28 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[NFL Playoff Scenarios: what are the odds for each contender to reach the postseason?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Cam-Newton-Panthers-Falcons.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Ten teams have clinched a playoff berth. That leaves six teams competing for two spots with one week to go.<br /> <br /> What are the odds for the six remaining teams to make the playoffs?<br /> <br /> Below we look at the different scenarios for each team to reach the postseason with our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-12-23-2014-Standings”>projected odds</a> that each team makes the playoffs.<br /> <br /> NFC teams that have clinched: Arizona, Detroit, Dallas, Green Bay, and Seattle.<br /> <br /> AFC teams that have clinched: Cincinnati, Denver, Indianapolis, New England and Pittsburgh.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>The NFC South</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> A win-and-you’re-in finale will determine the division winner. There will be a team with a losing record in the postseason for the first time since 2010. Which NFC South team will get to host a playoff game?<br /> <br /> Carolina can clinch the NFC South title with: a win or tie.<br /> The Panthers are 46 percent likely to make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Atlanta can clinch the NFC South title with: a win.<br /> The Falcons are 54 percent likely to make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>San Diego Chargers</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> San Diego can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Kansas City, or a tie plus a Baltimore loss or tie.<br /> <br /> The Chargers are 43.7 percent likely to make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Baltimore Ravens</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Baltimore can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Cleveland plus a San Diego loss or tie, or a tie against Cleveland and a San Diego loss.<br /> <br /> The Ravens are 36.1 percent likely to make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Houston Texans</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Houston can clinch a playoff spot with a win against Jacksonville, plus a Baltimore loss and a San Diego loss.<br /> <br /> The Texans are 14.5 percent likely to make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Kansas City Chiefs</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Kansas City can clinch a playoff spot with a win against San Diego plus a Baltimore loss and a Houston loss or tie.<br /> <br /> The Chiefs are 5.7 percent likely to make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Playoff-Scenarios-122314 Tue, 23 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 17 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Packers-Lions-Aaron-Rodgers-Suh.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>Week 17 �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> All-time, home favorites in Week 17 are: 135-109-5 (55% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (-3.5) vs. Panthers, Ravens (-9) vs. Browns, Broncos (-14.5) vs. Raiders, Packers (-7.5) vs. Lions, Texans (-10) vs. Jaguars, Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Chargers, Dolphins (-5.5) vs. Jets, Vikings (-7) vs. Bears, Patriots (-10.5) vs. Bills, Giants (-2.5) vs. Eagles, Steelers (-3) vs. Bengals, Seahawks (-13) vs. Rams, and 49ers (-5.5) vs. Cardinals.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, home dogs in Week 17 are: 72-55-1 (57% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Buccaneers (+4) vs. Saints, Titans (+7) vs. Colts and Redskins (+6.5) vs. Cowboys.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, teams last played on Saturday and are away underdogs are: 73-96-4 (43% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Eagles (+2.5) @ Redskins and Chargers (+2.5) @ Chiefs.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 17</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> -3.5 vs. CAR</td> <td> A win against Carolina clinches the NFC South, in the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as home favorites are 35-8 (81%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td> +5.5 @ SF</td> <td> Arizona needs a win and Seattle loss to clinch NFC West, all-time the Cardinals as road dogs are 58-186-1 (24%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td> -9 vs. CLE</td> <td> Baltimore needs a win to keep playoff hopes alive, in Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as a seven or more point favorite are 28-3 (90%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td> +10.5 @ NE</td> <td> All-time, the Bills as double-digit dogs in Foxborough are 7-4 (64% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> +3.5 @ ATL</td> <td> In the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as road dogs are 13-8-1 (62% ATS) and have won nearly half of the games outright (9-12-1 straight-up).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> +7 @ MIN</td> <td> All-time, the Bears as road dogs of seven or more points against the NFC North are 14-10-1 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> +3 @ PIT</td> <td> Cincinnati can clinch a playoff spot with a win, in the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals on the road against the AFC North are 4-7 (36%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> +9 @ BAL</td> <td> The Browns have not been a dog of a touchdown or more since last year, all-time Cleveland is 60-50-2 (55% ATS) in such games.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td> -6.5 @ WAS</td> <td> All-time, as road favorites, the Cowboys are 66-82-1 (45% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -14.5 vs. OAK</td> <td> Denver can clinch a bye with a win, in the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as double-digit favorites are 15-1 (94%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> +7.5 @ GB</td> <td> Detroit clinches NFC North with a win, in Matthew Stafford era, the Lions as dogs of seven or more points are 0-4 straight-up and ATS.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -7.5 vs. DET</td> <td> Green Bay clinches NFC North with win, in the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers as home favorites of seven or more points are 28-4 (88%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> HOU</td> <td> -10 vs. JAX</td> <td> Houston needs a win plus help to make playoffs, all-time as a favorite of seven or more points the Texans are 18-6 (75%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> -7 @ TEN</td> <td> The last ten road favorites in Tennessee all won and went 7-2-1 (78% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> JAX</td> <td> +10 @ HOU</td> <td> In the last ten years following a win, the Jaguars are 32-40 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> -2.5 vs. SD</td> <td> Kansas City makes the playoffs with a win and help, all-time the Chiefs as home favorites in December are 32-10 (76%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> -5.5 vs. NYJ</td> <td> All-time, the Dolphins as home favorites in December are 29-43-1 (40% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIN</td> <td> -7 vs. CHI</td> <td> The last time Minnesota was favored by a touchdown or more was 2010, all-time the Vikings are 33-55-4 (38% ATS) in those scenarios.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> -10.5 vs. BUF</td> <td> In the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as favorites of 10 or more points against the AFC East are 7-13 (35% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> -4 @ TB</td> <td> The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as road favorites.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td> -2.5 vs. PHI</td> <td> Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as home favorites against the Eagles are 2-6 (25% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYJ</td> <td> +5.5 @ MIA</td> <td> The Jets struggle to win on the road, New York is just 2-8 straight-up in its last ten road games.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +14.5 @ DEN</td> <td> Since 2002, road dogs of 10 or more points are 192-156-5 (55% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> +2.5 @ NYG</td> <td> All-time, as a road dog against the New York Giants, the Eagles are 16-12 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> -3 vs. CIN</td> <td> Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with a win, in the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers as home favorites are 61-21 (74%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SD</td> <td> +2.5 @ KC</td> <td> San Diego clinches a playoff spot with win at Kansas City, in the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs are 18-19 straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> -13 vs. STL</td> <td> Seattle can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win, in the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as double-digit home favorites are 9-1 straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td> -5.5 vs. AZ</td> <td> The 49ers are 7-2-1 straight-up at home in its last ten games against the NFC West but 4-5-1 ATS in those games.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td> +13 @ SEA</td> <td> In the Russell Wilson era, road dogs of 10 or more points in Seattle are 5-4-1 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> +4 vs. NO</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Buccaneers as home dogs are 14-23-2 (38% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +7 vs. IND</td> <td> Dating back to 1999, the Titans are 5-1 ATS following a game on Thursday Night Football.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> WAS</td> <td> +6.5 vs. DAL</td> <td> All-time, as a home dog against Dallas, the Redskins are 11-6 (65% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-17 Mon, 22 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL in Week 16 and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Jimmy-Graham-Saints.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12775″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Falcons vs. Saints</span></a></strong></span><br /> <br /> Atlanta handed New Orleans its fifth straight home loss with a 30-14 win in the Big Easy, which it has been for opposing road teams of late. The Falcons set up a winner takes all showdown with the Panthers next week and eliminated the Saints from playoff contention.<br /> <br /> The play of the game was a Jimmy Graham fumble inside the Falcons one-yard line early in the fourth. One replay looked to show that Graham had crossed the goal line before the fumble but officials did not find conclusive evidence to overturn the ruling on the field.<br /> <br /> Atlanta’s expected win probability increased from 74 percent to 96 percent with the turnover.<br /> <br /> Had Graham’s play been ruled a touchdown instead of a fumbe at the goal line, with New Orleans trailing 20-14, the Saints expected win probability increases from 4 percent to 27 percent.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12775″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12770″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Dolphins vs. Vikings</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Miami Dolphins erased an early 14 point deficit but trailed late in the fourth after giving up 15 points in an 11 second span. The two quick scores gave Minnesota a 35-28 lead and made the Vikings 91 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> The Dolphins responded with an 11 play, 80 yard drive to tie the game with 1:16 left to play. Miami’s expected win probability increased 40 percent but the Dolphins were still projected to lose until a special teams play changed the game.<br /> <br /> Miami’s Terrence Fede blocked a punt for a safety with 41 seconds left that gave the Dolphins a 37-35 victory.<br /> <br /> Even if Fede did not block the punt, Miami would have become 77 percent likely to win with possession of the football and only needing a field goal to win the game.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12770″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12769″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Patriots vs. Jets</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Patriots clinched a first round bye with a 17-16 victory over the New York Jets. New England scored the go ahead touchdown early in the fourth after intercepting Geno Smith.<br /> <br /> The interception, plus the touchdown increased New England’s expected win probability from 49 percent to 82 percent.<br /> <br /> The Jets had an opportunity to take the lead late in the fourth but Nick Folk missed a 52-yard field goal. Had the kick been good, Jets leading 19-17, New York would have become 55 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12769″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Eagles-Redskins-Saturday-Football.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12767″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Eagles vs. Redskins</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Washington Redskins snapped a six-game losing streak and dealt a devastating blow to the Philadelphia Eagles’ playoff chances with a 27-24 victory on Saturday night.<br /> <br /> Miscues against the Redskins played a big part in costing the Eagles the playoffs. Philadelphia had 13 penalties (most this season), two missed field goals (kicker Cody Parkey had been 29-of-31 entering the game) and two turnovers, both by Mark Sanchez.<br /> <br /> The last turnover, an interception with 1:31 remaining, was Sanchez’s 13th turnover in seven games and led to Kai Forbath’s winning 26-yard field goal with five seconds remaining.<br /> <br /> Sanchez’s interception swung the game. Washington’s expected win probability increased from 28 percent to 77 percent after forcing the turnover.<br /> <br /> Had Sanchez’s pass fell incomplete, Philadelphia facing 4th and 4 from the Washington 48-yard line, the Eagles would have been 55 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12767″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12768″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Chargers vs. 49ers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> San Diego trailed San Francisco by 21 points at halftime. The Chargers had just a 7 percent chance of winning and keeping their slim playoff hopes alive.<br /> <br /> San Diego erased the three touchdown deficit outscoring the 49ers 31-7 in the second half and overtime. The comeback win is tied for the second largest rally in the NFL this season.<br /> <br /> The 49ers had opportunities to win the game but Phil Dawson missed a 60-yard field goal at the end of regulation and Quinton Patton fumbled in overtime to set up the Chargers’ winning drive.<br /> <br /> San Diego’s expected win probability increased from 42 percent to 63 percent following the turnover in the extra session.<br /> <br /> If the Chargers beat the Chiefs in the season finale San Diego will punch its playoff ticket.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12768″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week16-2014 Sun, 21 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Bears, Cardinals and Browns. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/jay-cutler-bears-fantasy-football-1.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> With the NFL Playoff picture coming into focus as the regular season draws to a close, we pause to look at some of the more interesting games in Week 16 to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Bears, Cardinals and Browns.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Lions vs. Bears</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> To say these teams are heading in opposite directions would be an understatement. Detroit is one win away from the playoffs. The Bears have <a href=”http://espn.go.com/chicago/nfl/story/_/id/12043769/chicago-bears-start-jimmy-clausen-jay-cutler-week”>benched Jay Cutler</a>.<br /> <br /> The Lions, winners of three straight, opened as 4.5 point road favorites. Detroit’s stout defense has only allowed 17 points or less in three straight games and five of the last six.<br /> <br /> Once it was announced that Jimmy Clausen would get the start Sunday, the line nearly doubled. Detroit became 8.5 point favorites in Chicago.<br /> <br /> Don’t be surprised if the line keeps increasing, Detroit has one of the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-12-16-2014″>best defenses in the NFL</a> and it will face a quarterback that has attempted just nine passes since 2010.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Jay Cutler be the starting quarterback in Chicago Week 1 of 2015 season?</strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +1000</li> <li> No: -1500</li> </ul> <br /> How high would this line need to be for you to bet that Cutler will be back in 2015? This is a fake prop but an interesting question nonetheless.<br /> <br /> Cutler was 14 games into a new seven-year contract that made him the highest paid offensive player this season. Benching your franchise quarterback doesn’t bold well for his long term future.<br /> <br /> The Bears will miss the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Seahawks vs. Cardinals</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Arizona Cardinals are at the top of the NFC West, have clinched a playoff spot and if they beat Seattle can clinching home field advantage throughout the postseason.<br /> <br /> Clinching home field will be a tall task for Arizona. The Cardinals are down to their third string quarterback, a guy that was signed off of San Diego’s practice squad in November.<br /> <br /> Before the Drew Stanton injury, Seattle was already instilled as a touchdown favorite in Glendale. The Seahawks, on a four game winning streak, are now 8 points road favorites.<br /> <br /> A team with 10 or more wins has <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-16″>never been a home underdog</a> of more than a touchdown. Teams with 10 or more wins that are home dogs in the regular season are 6-4 (60% ATS).<br /> <br /> <strong>Ryan Lindley – Will he throw a TD Pass Week 16? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: -150</li> <li> No: +120</li> </ul> <br /> In seven NFL games, Lindley has completed less than 52 percent of his passes. He has thrown seven interceptions and zero touchdowns. Seattle is has the No. 1 defense in our Power Rankings.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Panthers vs. Browns</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Johnny Manziel will start against Carolina after a disastrous first showing in a 30-0 defeat to Cleveland. The Panthers are hoping their former Heisman winner can play as well. Cam Newton is expected to start after being involved in a car accident ten days ago.<br /> <br /> Carolina opened as a field goal favorite at home. The Panthers are a half game behind the Saints for the division lead. After backing the Browns and getting burned last week, the public is on Carolina to cover. Nearly 80 percent of the money is coming in on the Panthers.<br /> <br /> <strong>Johnny Manziel – Total Passing Yards Week 16 </strong> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 200.5</li> </ul> <br /> Manziel was 10 of 18 for 80 yards last week with two interceptions. We project Johnny Football to throw for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Carolina-Panthers-Cleveland-Browns-12-21-2014″>less than 200 yards</a> and he is just as likely to toss a touchdown as an interception.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Nfl-line-movement-week-16-2014 Fri, 19 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Playoff odds for teams still battling for a spot in the NFL Playoffs. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/AJ-Green-Bengals.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Four teams, the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts have clinched a postseason berth. With eight spots remaining in the NFL Playoffs, which teams will clinch the final seeds?<br /> <br /> Below we look for value in the odds for playoff hopefuls to reach the postseason. We utilize our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-12-16-2014-Standings”>NFL Playoff Predictions</a> to find the likelihood of a given team making the playoffs.<br /> <br /> To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to make the playoffs and compare that to our projected odds to reach the postseason. For example, Dallas is listed at -275 (4/11) to make the playoffs, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cowboys they would need to reach the postseason 73.3% (which is 11/(4+11)) of the time. We project the Boys to reach the playoffs 74.3% of the time, meaning there is slight value in placing a bet at -275 odds.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Cincinnati Bengals</strong></span></span></h2> <em>Odds: -200, Implied Chance: 66.7%, Projected Chance: 78.0%</em><br /> <br /> The Bengals lead the AFC North by half a game over the Ravens and Steelers. Cincinnati has two difficult games remaining (vs. Denver, at Pittsburgh), but the Bengals only need one more win to clinch a playoff spot.<br /> <br /> Cincinnati provides the best value because even though the team will be underdogs in its remaining games, the Bengals will have a good chance of being the six seed in the AFC with nine wins because of their tie.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Detroit Lions</strong></span></span></h2> <em>Odds: -1000, Implied Chance: 90.9%, Projected Chance: 96.6%</em><br /> <br /> The Lions are near locks to make the playoffs. Detroit can clinch a playoff spot with a win, a tie plus an Eagles loss or tie, or an Eagles loss. Detroit can even lock up a first round bye with a win, a Packers loss and a Cowboys loss.<br /> <br /> Even though Detroit is a heavy favorite to make the playoffs, there is still value in betting the Lions to return to the postseason for the first time since 2011.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Pittsburgh Steelers</strong></span></span></h2> <em>Odds: -400, Implied Chance: 80.0%, Projected Chance: 85.7%</em><br /> <br /> Pittsburgh has two interesting matchups remaining against fellow contenders (Kansas City and Cincinnati) for the final AFC playoff spots. If all goes well, the Steelers could earn the third seed in the AFC or stumble and fall out of the playoffs altogether.<br /> <br /> Needing one win with two home games to go, Pittsburgh is a likely playoff participant.<br /> <br /> Additional teams with value: Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints.<br /> <br /> <strong><span style=”font-size:16px;”>Odds to reach the 2014-15 NFL Playoffs</span></strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Will Team Make Playoffs?</th> <th> Odds Needed</th> <th> Projected Odds</th> </tr> <tr> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Atlanta Falcons</td> <td> +400</td> <td> 20.0%</td> <td> 18.1%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Baltimore Ravens</td> <td> -400</td> <td> 80.0%</td> <td> 83.2%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buffalo Bills</td> <td> +600</td> <td> 14.3%</td> <td> 9.7%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Carolina Panthers</td> <td> +400</td> <td> 20.0%</td> <td> 20.4%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Cincinnati Bengals</td> <td> -200</td> <td> 66.7%</td> <td> 78.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Dallas Cowboys</td> <td> -275</td> <td> 73.3%</td> <td> 74.3%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Detroit Lions</td> <td> -1000</td> <td> 90.9%</td> <td> 96.6%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Kansas City Chiefs</td> <td> +275</td> <td> 26.7%</td> <td> 26.6%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Miami Dolphins</td> <td> +1000</td> <td> 9.1%</td> <td> 0.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> New Orleans Saints</td> <td> -225</td> <td> 60.2%</td> <td> 61.5%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Philadelphia Eagles</td> <td> +140</td> <td> 41.7%</td> <td> 37.0%</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Pittsburgh Steelers</td> <td> -400</td> <td> 80.0%</td> <td> 85.7%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> San Diego Chargers</td> <td> +250</td> <td> 28.6%</td> <td> 13.7%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-121714 Wed, 17 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 16 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Dez-Bryant-Dallas-Cowboys.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>Week 16 �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> All-time, teams that have lost eight or more games in a row and are underdogs are: 36-21-1 (63% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Titans (+3) @ Jaguars.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, home underdogs in Week 16 and 17 of the regular season are: 155-119-7 (57% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Cardinals (+8) vs. Seahawks, Bears (+7) vs. Lions, Bengals (+3) vs. Broncos, Texans (+5.5) vs. Ravens, Jets (+10) vs. Patriots, Raiders (+5.5) vs. Bills, Buccaneers (+10.5) vs. Packers and Redskins (+7.5) vs. Eagles.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, double-digit road favorites in Week 16 or later in the season are: 7-14 (33% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (-10.5) @ Buccaneers and Patriots (-10) @ Jets.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 16</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> +6 @ NO</td> <td> Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons on the road in December are 11-4 (73% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td> +8 vs. SEA</td> <td> A team with 10 or more wins has never been a home dog of more than a touchdown. Teams with 10 or more wins that are home dogs in the regular season are 6-4 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td> -5.5 @ HOU</td> <td> The Ravens are currently the 6th seed in the AFC and need a win against the Texans to keep their playoff hopes alive. All-time, road favorites in Houston are 32-14 (70%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td> -5.5 @ OAK</td> <td> All-time, the Bills as road favorites are 34-43-3 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> -4 vs. CLE</td> <td> Carolina needs a win to stay in the NFC South race, during the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as home favorites are 14-5 (74%) straight-up. The Panthers have won both games Newton has missed in his career.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> +7 vs. DET</td> <td> In the last ten games as home underdogs, the Bears are 2-8 (20% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> +3 vs. DEN</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs on Monday Night Football are 33-43 (43% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> +4 @ CAR</td> <td> The Browns have lost ten straight December games.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td> -3 vs. IND</td> <td> Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys as home favorites are 25-38 (40% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -3 @ CIN</td> <td> All-time, on Monday Night Football, Peyton Manning is 12-5 (71% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> -7 @ CHI</td> <td> Since 2011, the Mathew Stafford era, the Lions have only been road favorites against the NFC North four times and are 1-3 ATS in those games.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -10.5 @ TB</td> <td> Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers following a loss are 21-15-1 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> HOU</td> <td> +5.5 vs. BAL</td> <td> The Texans have covered in six of the team’s last seven games as home dogs of more than a field goal.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> +3 @ DAL</td> <td> Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as road dogs are 4-8-1 (33% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> JAX</td> <td> -3 vs. TEN</td> <td> This is the first time that Jacksonville has been a favorite since Week 17 2011. Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Jaguars as favorites are 29-40-1 (42% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> +3 @ PIT</td> <td> Kansas City is the 7th seed in the AFC, the Chiefs need a win against the Steelers but all-time road teams in Pittsburgh during December are 22-56 (28%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> -6.5 vs. MIN</td> <td> All-time, the Dolphins as home favorites in December are 29-43-1 (40% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIN</td> <td> +6.5 @ MIA</td> <td> All-time, road dogs in Miami of 6 or more points are 63-52-3 (55% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> -10 @ NYJ</td> <td> Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as double-digit favorites are 16-30 (35% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> -6 vs. ATL</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints at home against the Falcons are 7-1 straight-up and 5-3 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td> +5 @ STL</td> <td> Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as road dogs are 30-22-1 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYJ</td> <td> +10 vs. NE</td> <td> The Jets have only been double-digit home dogs once, in 1978 against the Steelers, New York covered the spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +5.5 vs. BUF</td> <td> All-time, the Raiders as home dogs are 38-48-2 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> -7.5 @ WAS</td> <td> All-time, the Eagles as road favorites against the NFC East are 20-11-2 (65% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> -3 vs. KC</td> <td> Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers at home in December are 15-10-1 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SD</td> <td> +2.5 @ SF</td> <td> Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs are 21-12-3 (64% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> -8 @ AZ</td> <td> Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks are 31-16-4 (66% ATS). As a road favorite against the NFC West the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td> -2.5 vs. SD</td> <td> All-time, the 49ers as home favorites in December are 35-27-2 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td> -5 vs. NYG</td> <td> This is the first time the Rams have been favorites in four straight games since the 2006-07 season. During that time St. Louis as a home favorite is 9-13 (41% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> +10.5 vs. GB</td> <td> All-time, the Buccaneers have been home dogs of 10 or more points five times and are 1-4 ATS in those games.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +3 @ JAX</td> <td> All-time, road underdogs on Thursday Night Football are 55-71-6 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> WAS</td> <td> +7.5 vs. PHI</td> <td> All-time, when the Redskins play football on Saturday Washington is 21-13-1 (62% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-16 Tue, 16 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Rg3-Redsksins-Giants.JPG” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12567″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Giants vs. Redskins</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Odell Beckham Jr. caught three touchdowns as the New York Giants took advantage of an overturned touchdown at the end of the first half to beat the Washington Redskins 24-13.<br /> <br /> The game-defining play, the overturned touchdown at the end of the first half, occurred as time expired in the second quarter. Robert Griffin III scrambled for an eight yard touchdown but replay officials ruled that Griffin had lost possession of the football when he dove for the end zone and as a result the play was reversed.<br /> <br /> The Redskins led the Giants 10-7 at the half and were 52 percent likely to win. Had Griffin’s touchdown stood, Washington leading 17-7 at the half, the Redskins’ expected win probability increases to 70 percent.<br /> <br /> Adding insult to injury, the Redskins players, <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O69PTdJ6OWF”>specifically Santana Moss</a>, were so upset by the ruling on the field at the end of the first half that they drew unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. The penalties were assessed on the second half kickoff.<br /> <br /> The penalties allowed the Giants to kick off from the Redskins 35-yard line. New York, because of the field position, decided to try an onside kick. The Giants successfully recovered the onside kick and became 66 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> To recap, Washington saw the team’s expected win probability swing from 70 percent (if Griffin’s touchdown stands) to 34 percent following the Giants onside kick, which was set up by unsportsmanlike conduct penalties related to the Griffin touchdown not counting.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12567″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12566″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Patriots vs. Dolphins</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> New England defeated Miami 41-13 to secure the Patriots sixth straight AFC East title. The Pats jumped on the Dolphins early when Jamie Collins blocked Caleb Sturgis’ 41-yard field goal attempt on Miami’s first possession and Kyle Arrington returned the ball 62 yards for a touchdown.<br /> <br /> The <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O69atdzzrJa”>touchdown on a blocked field goal</a> made New England 85 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Had Miami converted the field goal attempt, the Dolphins expected win probability increases from 15 percent to 35 percent.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12566″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Johnny-Manziel-Browns-Bengals.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12568″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Bengals vs. Browns</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Johnny Manziel era in Cleveland started with a 30-0 thrashing at the hands of rival Cincinnati. The Bengals dominated Johnny Football in his first career start. Manziel was 10-of-18 for 80 yards, two interceptions and was sacked three times.<br /> <br /> Pacman Jones intercepted Manziel and then did the <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O69QXbT2xri”>“money” sign</a>. Wallace Gilberry sacked Manziel and then did the <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O69OOdwq5q2″>“money” sign</a>. Rey Maualuga did the <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O69w0ImWKK5″>“money” celebration</a> in Johnny’s face.<br /> <br /> Everyone did the ‘money” sign, Johnny Manziel’s signature gesture, except Johnny Football.<br /> <br /> Ironically, even though Manziel played poorly, the interceptions and the sacks came after Cleveland was already down 17-0. By that point the Browns had just a 10 percent chance of winning.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12568″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12569″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Bills vs. Packers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Buffalo Bills ended the Green Bay Packers five game winning streak and assured the team of its first eight-win season since going 9-7 in 2004 with a 21-13 victory Sunday.<br /> <br /> The Packers receivers who had a number of drops including one key drop by Jordy Nelson helped the Bills in the win.<br /> <br /> On second down at the Green Bay 6-yard line, Aaron Rodgers found Nelson wide open and hit the receiver in stride. The pass <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O6VKOrrPU5F”>bounced off of Nelson’s hands</a> incomplete.<br /> <br /> Trailing 16-10, Green Bay had a 20 percent chance of winning at the end of the third quarter. Had Nelson caught the pass and ran for a touchdown, Green Bay leading 17-16, the Packers would have been 56 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12569″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12575″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Cowboys vs. Eagles</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Dez Bryant caught a career high <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O6LX939AF6V”>three touchdowns</a> and the Dallas Cowboys took control of the NFC East with a 38-27 victory Sunday night.<br /> <br /> The high scoring game was full of lead changes and wild swings in expected win probability.<br /> <br /> Dallas took an early 21-0 lead in the second quarter. The Cowboys were 85 percent likely to win. The Eagles responded with 24 unanswered points. Leading Dallas 24-21, Philly became 70 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> The Boys responded with two touchdowns in three minutes. With a double-digit lead in the fourth, Dallas became 88 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12575″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week15-2014 Sun, 14 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Browns, 49ers and Steelers. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Johnny-Manziels-Browns.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> With three weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, we pause to look at some of the more interesting games in Week 15 to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Browns, 49ers and Steelers.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Browns vs. Bengals</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> One touchdown and eight interceptions across four games have cost Brian Hoyer his job. Johnny Manziel will make his first professional start Sunday against division rival Cincinnati.<br /> <br /> The AFC North leading Bengals opened as two point road favorites. The money is split on which side will cover but Cleveland became a one point favorite after the former Heisman winner was announced as the starter.<br /> <br /> <strong>Johnny Manziel Total TD Passes Week 15 </strong> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 1.5</li> </ul> <br /> This season Johnny Football has dropped back to pass 11 times but only attempted nine passes, completing five for 63 yards. We project Manziel to complete just less than <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Cleveland-Browns-Cincinnati-Bengals-12-14-2014″>60 percent of his passes for 1.1 passing touchdowns</a> on average.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Seahawks vs. 49ers</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Seattle dominated San Francisco on Thanksgiving and followed that performance by manhandling the NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. The 49ers, after the embarrassing loss to the Hawks, were further humiliated and most likely <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-12-09-2014-Standings”>knocked out of the playoffs</a> by the Oakland Raiders in Week 14.<br /> <br /> The defending Super Bowl Champions opened as 7.5 point home favorites. Over 80 percent of the public is on the Seahawks to cover. Seattle is now a 10 point favorite over San Francisco. This is the first time in the Jim Harbaugh era that the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-15″>49ers are double-digit underdogs</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Colin Kaepernick throw a 4th quarter TD Pass Week 15? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +300</li> <li> No: -500</li> </ul> <br /> Colin Kaepernick’s star has dimmed. Just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance, the young quarterback has struggled and is taking blame for the 49ers poor season. Through 13 games, Kaepernick has yet to throw a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Steelers vs. Falcons</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> One team is 8-5, the other 5-8 but both are in contention for the playoffs. Pittsburgh is a half-game behind Cincinnati for the AFC North lead. Atlanta is tied with New Orleans in the NFC South.<br /> <br /> The Steelers opened as small favorites (-1) and are now flirting with becoming field goal favorites on the road.<br /> <br /> Atlanta is 1-8 this season against non-division opponents. Pittsburgh averages 21.7 points on the road, almost two touchdowns fewer than when the Steelers play at home. Which trend will continue?<br /> <br /> Neither team can afford a loss, yet one team’s playoff hopes could be dashed.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Le’Veon Bell record 200 or more yards from scrimmage for the 4th straight week?</strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +450</li> <li> No: -700</li> </ul> <br /> In the Steelers last three games, Le’Veon Bell has totaled 711 yards and five touchdowns. Bell joined Hall of Famer Walter Payton as the only running backs to post at least 200 yards from scrimmage in three consecutive games.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Nfl-line-movement-week-15-2014 Fri, 12 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 15 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/LeVeon-Bell-Steelers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>Week 15 �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> All-time, home dogs in December are: 374-306-17 (55% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+2.5) vs. Steelers, Bills (+5) vs. Packers, Bears (+3) vs. Saints, Chargers (+4) vs. Broncos and Titans (+1.5) vs. Jets.</li> </ul> <br /> Baltimore -13.5 vs. Jacksonville is the fourth highest spread this season. All double-digit favorites in 2014 are: 7-11 (39% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (-10) vs. Raiders, Ravens (-13.5) vs. Jaguars, and Seahawks (-10) vs. 49ers.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, teams that won by three touchdowns the previous week and then are road favorites the following week are 185-233-9 (44% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Steelers (-2.5) @ Falcons.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 15</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> +2.5 vs. PIT</td> <td> In the last 10 years, home dogs that played on Monday Night Football the previous week are 26-34-3 (43% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td> +4.5 @ STL</td> <td> All-time, 10 win teams in Week 15 or later in the season that are road dogs are 160-188-8 (46% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td> -13.5 vs. JAX</td> <td> The Ravens are currently the 7th seed in the AFC, since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, Baltimore as a double-digit favorite is 14-0 straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td> +5 vs. GB</td> <td> Buffalo has a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-12-09-2014-Standings”>5% chance of making the playoffs</a> and need a win against Green Bay. All-time, the Bills as home underdogs are 29-68 (30%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> -3.5 vs. TB</td> <td> Carolina is battling for the NFC South title, in the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as home favorites are 13-5 straight-up and 12-6 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> +3 vs. NO</td> <td> All-time, the Bears on Monday Night Football are 22-32-2 (41% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> Pick’em @ CLE</td> <td> All-time, the Bengals on the road in Cleveland are 13-19 (41% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> Pick’em vs. CIN</td> <td> All-time, the Browns at home against its AFC North brethren are 44-36-2 (55% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td> +3.5 @ PHI</td> <td> In the Tony Romo era, Dallas in a second matchup against an opponent it lost to earlier in the season, the Cowboys are 4-7 (36% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -4 @ SD</td> <td> In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as road favorites are 12-6 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> -7.5 vs. MIN</td> <td> Since 2011, the Matthew Stafford era, the Lions as home favorites against the NFC North are 6-2 (75% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -5 @ BUF</td> <td> Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers against the AFC East are 5-2 (71%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> HOU</td> <td> +6.5 @ IND</td> <td> All-time, the Texans are just 4-21 (16%) straight-up against the Colts and winless in Indianapolis.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> -6.5 vs. HOU</td> <td> All-time, the Colts at home against the Texans are 8-4 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> JAX</td> <td> +13.5 @ BAL</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, double-digits underdogs are 225-178-4 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> -10 vs. OAK</td> <td> Since 2002, the last time the Raiders were in the playoffs, double-digit favorites facing Oakland are 28-6 (82%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> +7.5 @ NE</td> <td> The Dolphins are in the playoff race but Miami is just 1-11 on the road in Foxborough when facing Tom Brady.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIN</td> <td> +7.5 @ DET</td> <td> All-time, the Vikings as road dogs of a touchdown or more against the NFC North are 1-12 straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> -7.5 vs. MIA</td> <td> Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as home favorites are 58-47-5 (55% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> -3 @ CHI</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints on Monday Night Football are 11-4 straight-up and 9-6 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td> -6.5 vs. WAS</td> <td> Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as home favorites of 7 or more points are 9-16 (36% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYJ</td> <td> -1.5 @ TEN</td> <td> Since 2009, the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as road favorites are 8-4-1 (67% ATS) but the Jets haven’t been road favorites since December 2012.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +10 @ KC</td> <td> All-time, road teams in December in Arrowhead are 29-36 (45% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> -3.5 vs. DAL</td> <td> The Eagles hold the tiebreaker over the Cowboys for the division title, since 2013, Chip Kelly era, the Eagles as home favorites are 10-5 (67%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> -2.5 @ ATL</td> <td> Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, road favorites in Atlanta are 4-9-1 (31% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SD</td> <td> +4 vs. DEN</td> <td> Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers have only been home dogs against the AFC West once, last year vs Denver. Broncos won and covered that game.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> -10 vs. SF</td> <td> In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as double-digit favorites are 9-1 straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td> +10 @ SEA</td> <td> The 49ers have never been double-digit dogs in the Jim Harbaugh era. In that same time frame, the 49ers have only been dogs of a touchdown or more once, they won and covered that game (+9 @ Eagles 2011).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td> -4.5 vs. AZ</td> <td> The Rams are just fifth team to pitch shutouts in back-to-back weeks this century, the other teams went 3-1 ATS the next week.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> +3.5 @ CAR</td> <td> The Bucs last made the playoffs in 2007, Tampa Bay only has 5 road wins vs. NFC South teams since that playoff appearance.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +1.5 vs. NYJ</td> <td> All-time, the Titans as home dogs on Sundays are 50-36-2 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> WAS</td> <td> +6.5 @ NYG</td> <td> All-time, teams that lost five games in a row and are underdogs are 128-104-3 (55% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-15 Tue, 9 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Andrew-Luck-Colts-Browns.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12375″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Colts vs. Browns</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> When the Colts trailed 21-7 in the third quarter; Indy had just an 11 percent chance of winning. Andrew Luck threw a one-yard touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton with 32 second left to rally Indianapolis to a 25-24 victory.<br /> <br /> Before Luck’s game-winning throw, the Colts running back Daniel Herron ran for two yards on fourth-and-one from the three-yard line to pick up a game-saving first down.<br /> <br /> The fresh set of downs increased Indy’s expected win probability from 33 percent to 53 percent.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12375″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12374″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Ravens vs. Dolphins</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Baltimore trailed 10-0 in the first quarter and the Ravens were just 20 percent likely to win the game down two scores on the road. Baltimore outscored Miami 28-3 over the final three quarters and the Ravens got a critical win to keep their playoff hopes alive.<br /> <br /> Baltimore, leading 14-13 in the fourth, were helped when replay overturned what looked to be a Joe Flacco fumble. The review ruled that Flacco threw an incomplete pass instead of a fumble because the quarterback’s arm was moving forward.<br /> <br /> On the next play, Baltimore scored on a Justin Forsett two-yard run and the Ravens became 95 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Had the replay upheld the ruling on the field, a Flacco fumble recovered by Miami, the Dolphins would have become 44 percent likely to rally and win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12374″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Vikings-Jets.jpeg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12372″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Vikings vs. Jets</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Jets kicker Nick Folk booted a 44-yard field goal with 23 seconds left to force overtime. New York won the coin flip and was 57 percent likely to win the game in the extra session.<br /> <br /> After forcing the Jets to punt to start the extra period, Minnesota faced a third-and-five from their own 13-yard line. The Vikings were just 39 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Teddy Bridgewater threw a quick pass to Jarius Wright on a bubble screen, the Vikings receiver made one defender miss and then took the short pass 87-yards for a touchdown. It was the third longest offensive touchdown in overtime in NFL history.<br /> <br /> Had the Jets stopped the Vikings third down bubble pass and forced a punt, New York would have become 73 percent likely to win (using Minnesota’s net punting average to determine starting field position for the Jets).<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12372″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12381″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Cardinals vs. Chiefs</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Arizona shut out Kansas City in the second half, the Cardinals rallied from a 14-6 halftime deficit (20 percent chance to win) to beat the Chiefs 17-14.<br /> <br /> The Cardinals benefited from a replay review, which determined that Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce fumbled after what would have been a first down for the Chiefs at the Cardinals 23-yard line. The fumble recovery by Arizona made the NFC West leaders 80 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Had Kansas City retained possession, the Chiefs become 67 percent likely to win with a first down just outside of the red zone.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12381″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12382″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Broncos vs. Bills</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Denver won its third game in a row despite Peyton Manning’s streak of 51 straight games with a touchdown pass ending. The Broncos leading by as many as three touchdowns in the fourth quarter were 99 percent likely to win for the final 20 minutes of the game.<br /> <br /> The irony in the expected win probability is that Buffalo was always the projected loser and for most of the second half, had with less than a one percent chance to win. Even when the Bills had nothing to lose, they used a conservative approach against one of the best teams in the NFL.<br /> <br /> Facing a 4th-and-2 with less than six minutes to play and trailing Denver by two touchdowns, the Bills punted. Had Buffalo went for it on fourth down and converted, the Bills expected win probability is still 1.5 percent. If they fail to get the first down, the team’s expected win probability is one percent.<br /> <br /> There was no downside to going for it when you are already going to lose. This is not college football, there are no style points and avoiding a blowout loss does not impact the standings.<br /> <br /> Buffalo has an outside shot at making the playoffs but conventional play calling could have the Bills watching from home during the postseason.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12382″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week14-2014 Sun, 7 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Colts, Bengals and Texans. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Andrew-Luck-Indianapolis-Colts(1).jpg” /><br /> <br /> As we enter the final turn of the NFL season, we pause to look at some of the more interesting games in Week 14 to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Colts, Bengals and Texans.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Colts vs. Browns</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Cleveland Browns are staying the course, <a href=”http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11972589/brian-hoyer-cleveland-browns-start-johnny-manziel”>Brian Hoyer will start</a> and Johnny Manziel will continue to ride the bench. The decision has little impact, by our numbers, on Cleveland’s odds to win this game or make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> Indy opened as field goal favorites on the road. The Colts are coming off an impressive offensive performance against the Redskins in which they scored six touchdowns of 30 or more yards. The line has bounced around never getting to Colts -6 but not returning to Indy -3 either.<br /> <br /> This game is likely to kick off with Indy favored by slightly more than a field goal.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Andrew Luck break the record of 13 games in a Season with 300 or more Passing Yards? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +500</li> <li> No: -800</li> </ul> <br /> The record for 300 passing yard games in a season is 13 by Drew Brees in 2011. Luck is currently at 10 games with 300 or more passing yards. To break Brees’ record, Luck will need to throw for 300 yards in each of his last four games this season.<br /> <br /> According to our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Fantasy-Football-2014-Projections-Rest-of-Season-12022014″>rest of season fantasy projections</a>, Luck passes for 300 yards in three of his last four games failing to top 300 yards this week against the Browns.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Bengals vs. Steelers</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Who will be King of the North? Cincinnati is eyeing a second straight division title but Pittsburgh controls its own fate. The Bengals just completed a three game road sweep that has netted them a one and a half game lead over the rest of the division.<br /> <br /> We project the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-12-02-2014-Standings”>Bengals to win the division</a>, but an upset by the Steelers in Paul Brown Stadium throws those simulations out the window.<br /> <br /> Cincinnati opened as a favorite in the Vegas Zone �“ a Bill Simmons’ phrase for a betting line in the NFL that ranges from 4 to 5.5 points when Las Vegas isn’t sure how much to favor a team. Money has come in on Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is currently favored by traditional home field advantage, three points.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Andy Dalton have more TD’s or Interceptions in the 2014 Regular Season? </strong> <ul> <li> TDs: -200</li> <li> Interceptions: +160</li> </ul> <br /> Andy Dalton has thrown 13 touchdowns and 13 interceptions thus far. We project Dalton to finish with approximately <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Fantasy-Football-2014-Projections-Rest-of-Season-12022014#QB0″>six touchdowns and four interceptions</a>. The good news: Dalton doesn’t finish with more picks than scores. The bad news: he finishes behind players like Colt McCoy, Zach Mettenberger and Shaun Hill �“ players not on a playoff team, in our projections.<br /> <br /> Dalton will potentially battle Drew Stanton, Mark Sanchez, and Ryan Tannehill for the worst starting quarterback in this postseason.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Texans vs. Jaguars</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The Houston Texans are playing for the postseason. The Jacksonville Jaguars are heading for the top of the draft (the Jags have had a top ten pick in seven straight drafts).<br /> <br /> This is a must win game for the Texans. A loss to Jacksonville and a win by Indianapolis eliminates Houston from the playoffs.<br /> <br /> The Texans opened as four point road favorites and are now favored over the Jags by six points.<br /> <br /> <strong>J.J. Watt – Total TD’s in the 2014 Regular Season? </strong> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 6</li> </ul> <br /> Watt is currently at five touchdowns. The all-defensive player has more touchdowns this season than Keenan Allen and Michael Crabtree and is tied with Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones �“ all players paid to score touchdowns.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Nfl-line-movement-week-14-2014 Fri, 5 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[A December to remember, can the Dallas Cowboys avoid another 8-8 season?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tony-Romo-Cowboys-Eagles.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The Dallas Cowboys have been the model for mediocrity, finishing with an 8-8 record the last three seasons. One of the biggest problems for “America’s Team” is that the end of the regular season has not been kind.<br /> <br /> In the last twenty years, with six different coaches, the Cowboys have had just four winning records over the months of December and January.<br /> <br /> This is the third year that Jason Garrett will lead the Cowboys into December with a winning record. In 2011 the team was 7-4; in 2013, Dallas was 7-5; and this year, the Cowboys are 8-4.<br /> <br /> At the midway point in the season, Dallas was 6-2, leading the NFC East and was <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-10-28-2014-Standings”>70% likely to make the playoffs</a> and shake the dreaded 8-8 finish.<br /> <br /> With three losses in the team’s last five games, you wouldn’t blame Cowboys’ fans for being nervous, especially with a quarterback in Tony Romo that has a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>13-18 record in December and January</a>.<br /> <br /> Dallas has four games remaining, three on the road and is projected to be an underdog in two contests (at Philadelphia and vs. Indianapolis).<br /> <br /> What are the chances that the Cowboys finish with a fourth consecutive 8-8 season?<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Opponent</th> <th> Proj. Score (Dallas First)</th> <th> Dallas Proj. Win %</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> At Bears</td> <td> 30.0 – 27.0</td> <td> 57.6</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> At Eagles</td> <td> 28.4 – 32.4</td> <td> 41.3</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Vs. Colts</td> <td> 31.1 – 33.1</td> <td> 45.8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> At Redskins</td> <td> 29.2 – 26.4</td> <td> 56.3</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> After 50,000 simulations, Dallas has a 3.5 percent chance of losing all of its final four games.<br /> <br /> The Cowboys could finish 8-8 the hard way (starting 6-2 and finishing 2-6), but it is unlikely.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Ray Rice Reinstated</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Ray Rice won his appeal and has been reinstated to the NFL. Rice is eligible to sign with any NFL team.<br /> <br /> Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, who sites multiple sources, at least four teams have expressed interest in acquiring the former Baltimore Ravens running back.<br /> <br /> Should a team sign Rice?<br /> <br /> Before his suspension, Rice had been ineffective. Last season, he averaged 3.1 yards per carry, the lowest mark among any running back with at least 160 rushes in 2013. He is a 27 year old running back that has already had 2,038 touches in 104 career games, which is an average of 19.6 touches-per-game over a six year career after he had 948 touches in just three seasons in college. While we would not project exactly 3.1 yards-per-carry from Rice if he were to be reinstated, the regression from his previous efficiency is to be expected given essentially 3,000 touches in meaningful game play over the last nine years. Furthermore, with the same guards and two of the same tackles from 2013 playing for Baltimore on the offensive line this year, Justin Forsett has averaged 5.6 yards-per-carry, the best mark among any qualified running back. The Ravens have gone from having the least efficient to the most efficient rusher by losing Ray Rice for the season.<br /> <br /> We ran the numbers, and after 50,000 simulations, and every team in the NFL would only hurt its efficiency by signing Rice and giving him the touches of a feature back over their current feature back (the lone exception to this could come in Arizona if Andre Ellington is out for the foreseeable future – Ray Rice would be beneficial to the Cardinals’ output, but not markedly so).]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/can-the-dallas-cowboys-finish-8-and-8 Wed, 3 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 14 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Johnny-Manziel-Cleveland-Browns(1).jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>Week 14 �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, double-digit underdogs are: 225-178-4 (56% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Bills (+10) @ Broncos and Falcons (+12) @ Packers.</li> </ul> <br /> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home underdogs of a touchdown or more are: 124-91-3 (58% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+8) vs. 49ers.</li> </ul> <br /> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, teams that lost by 21 or more points the previous week and are home dogs are: 94-80-6 (54% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Redskins (+2.5) vs. Rams and Raiders (+8) vs. 49ers.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 14</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> +12 @ GB</td> <td> All-time, the Falcons on Monday Night Football are 10-20 (33% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td> -1 vs. KC</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home favorites against the Chiefs are 32-40-2 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td> +3 @ MIA</td> <td> Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as road dogs are 20-15-3 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td> +10 @ DEN</td> <td> Bills need a win to keep Wild Card hopes alive, All-time, double-digit road dogs in Mile High are 9-47 (16%) straight-up</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> +9.5 @ NO</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, opponents playing in New Orleans are 31-40-2 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> +3.5 vs DAL</td> <td> All-time, the Bears on Thursday are 7-10-1 (41% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> -3 vs. PIT</td> <td> All-time, the Bengals as home favorites against the AFC North are 22-17-1 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> +4 vs. IND</td> <td> The Browns are in the playoff race and need a win but all-time as home dogs Cleveland is 38-79 (33%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td> -3.5 @ CHI</td> <td> In the last 10 years, following their game on Thanksgiving the Cowboys are 3-7 (30% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -10 vs. BUF</td> <td> In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos have only lost 3 games as a home favorite and are 16-7-2 (70% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> -9.5 vs. TB</td> <td> Since 2011, the Matthew Stafford era, the Lions as favorites of 7 points or more are 3-5 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -12 vs. ATL</td> <td> All-time, the Packers at home in December are 38-25-3 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> HOU</td> <td> -5 @ JAX</td> <td> In the last five years, favorites against the Jaguars are 41-25 (62% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> -4 @ CLE</td> <td> Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts in December are 7-3 (70% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> JAX</td> <td> +5 vs. HOU</td> <td> In the last ten games following a win, the Jaguars are 2-8 (20% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> +1 @ AZ</td> <td> All-time, the Chiefs at home in December are 36-29 (55% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> -3 vs. BAL</td> <td> Since 2012, the Ryan Tannehill era, the Dolphins at home are 13-6-2 (68% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIN</td> <td> -6 vs. NYJ</td> <td> In the last ten years, when the Vikings have won and covered, the next game Minnesota is 10-21-2 (32% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> -3.5 @ SD</td> <td> Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots following a loss are 26-12 (68% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> -10 vs. CAR</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints as home favorites of a touchdown or more are 19-15 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td> Pick’em @ TEN</td> <td> Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants on the road are 50-33-2 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYJ</td> <td> +6 @ MIN</td> <td> Since 2009, the Rex Ryan era, the Jets as road dogs of 3 or more points are 13-16-1 (45% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +8 vs. SF</td> <td> All-time, teams that have lost by more than 5 touchdowns the previous week are 99-79-8 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> -1.5 vs. SEA</td> <td> Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, favorites against the Seahawks are 2-10-1 (17% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> +3 @ CIN</td> <td> Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers on the road against its AFC North brethren are 19-13-1 (59% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SD</td> <td> +3.5 vs. NE</td> <td> Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home dogs are 7-4 (64% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> +1.5 @ PHI</td> <td> Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as road dogs are 6-2-1 (75% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td> -8 @ OAK</td> <td> Since 2012, the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers as road favorites are 12-3-1 (80% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td> -2.5 @ WAS</td> <td> All-time, teams that won by 50 or more points the previous week are 3-4-1 (43% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> +9.5 @ DET</td> <td> All-time, underdogs in Detroit of 9 or more points are 12-4-1 (75% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +1 vs. NYG</td> <td> In the last ten years, the Titans at home are 38-46-2 (45% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> WAS</td> <td> +2.5 vs. STL</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Redskins as home dogs are 20-25-3 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-14 Tue, 2 Dec 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Chargers-Ravens-2014.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12205″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Chargers vs. Ravens</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> San Diego trailed Baltimore throughout the game; the Chargers were the projected loser for 59:33 of game time. San Diego was behind 30-20 with 6:13 remaining (two percent chance to win) and 33-27 with 2:22 left (a seven percent chance to win) before Philip Rivers rallied the team.<br /> <br /> San Diego benefited from pass interference in the end zone with less than a minute remaining that gave the Chargers a first down at the Ravens’ one-yard line. The penalty increased San Diego’s expected win probability from 31 percent to 45 percent.<br /> <br /> Philip Rivers threw a touchdown on the next play and San Diego became 62 percent likely to win its third straight game.<br /> <br /> The Ravens were 11-0 all-time at home against West Coast teams before the loss.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12205″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12206″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Bengals vs. Buccaneers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Cincinnati overcame three Andy Dalton interceptions and ten penalties to beat Tampa Bay 14-13; it was the Bengals third straight road victory.<br /> <br /> The Buccaneers were within striking distance in the final minutes and would have been in field goal range but a 21-yard completion was overturned on replay because the Bucs had 12 men on the field.<br /> <br /> Tampa Bay tried to line up and spike the ball to setup the field goal but Bengals Head Coach Marvin Lewis threw a red flag to challenge the previous play.<br /> <br /> The only problem is that coaches cannot challenge plays in the final two minutes. Cincinnati was charged a timeout for throwing the flag. During the timeout replay officials found that the Bucs had 12 men on the field.<br /> <br /> The play was reversed and Tampa Bay ended up turning the ball over on downs.<br /> <br /> Had the completion stood, Bucs’ ball on the Bengals 20-yard line, Tampa Bay would have been 95 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12206″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Johnny-Manziels-Browns.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12203″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Browns vs. Bills</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Buffalo Bills used a big second half to easily dispatch the Cleveland Browns 26-10. Buffalo scored two touchdowns in a span of ten seconds in the third quarter including a defensive score (fumble return) that increased the Bills expected win probability from 70 percent to 94 percent.<br /> <br /> The Johnny Manziel era started in Cleveland after Brian Hoyer threw his second interception of the game. Manziel went 3 of 4 for 54 yards and rushed for a <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OnxF1Q1HVYP”>10-yard touchdown</a>. <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OnxtX7qpPjp”>Johnny Football was money</a> but he couldn’t rally the Browns to a win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12203″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12203″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Jaguars vs. Giants</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Jacksonville Jaguars trailed the New York Giants 21-0 in the second quarter.<br /> <br /> The Jags had just an eight percent chance of winning.<br /> <br /> The Jaguars scored two defensive touchdowns in the second half and Jacksonville rallied for the largest comeback in team history beating the Giants 25-24.<br /> <br /> Before the game-winning drive, the Jags had less than a 40 percent chance of defeating the Giants.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12203″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12210″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Packers vs. Patriots</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Aaron Rodgers threw for two touchdowns, <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OnQAZvQZPBu”>Tom Brady said expletives</a>, a <a href=”https://vine.co/v/On2b0xphOwq”>few times</a>, and the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots 26-21 in Lambeau.<br /> <br /> On the Patriots final possession, Green Bay sacked Tom Brady forcing New England to attempt a 47-yard field goal that Stephen Gostkowski missed. The missed field goal increased Green Bay’s expected win probability from 79 percent to 93 percent.<br /> <br /> Had Gostkowski made the field goal, New England would have been 25 percent likely to rally trailing 26-24.<br /> <br /> The Patriots had another opportunity to get the ball back after missing the field goal. Green Bay faced a third and four from their own 43-yard line, Aaron Rodgers found Randle Cobb for a seven yard gain. The first down ended the game.<br /> <br /> Had New England forced an incompletion on third down, assuming Green Bay punted the ball on fourth down, the Patriots would have been five percent likely to win needing a touchdown to win the game.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=12210″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week13-2014 Sun, 30 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

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<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 13 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Tony-Romo-Cowboys-Eagles.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>Week 13 �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> In the last 10 years, favorites on Thanksgiving are: 20-7-1 (74% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-7) vs. Bears, Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles and 49ers (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.</li> </ul> <br /> In the last 10 years, home teams on Thanksgiving are 12-15-1 (44% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-7) vs. Bears, Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles and 49ers (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.</li> </ul> <br /> In the last 10 years, home favorites on Thanksgiving are 10-5 (67% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-7) vs. Bears, Cowboys (-3) vs. Eagles and 49ers (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 13</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> +2.5 vs. AZ</td> <td> Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as home dogs are 8-4-1 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> AZ</td> <td> -2.5 @ ATL</td> <td> All-time, the Cardinals are road favorites are 26-19-1 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> BAL</td> <td> -5 vs. SD</td> <td> Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens following a Monday Night Football game are 3-5 straight-up and ATS.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> BUF</td> <td> -2 vs. CLE</td> <td> All-time, following a game on Monday Night Football, the Bills as home favorites are 15-2 (88%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> CAR</td> <td> +3 @ MIN</td> <td> Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers as road underdogs are 12-7-1 (63% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> CHI</td> <td> +7 @ DET</td> <td> Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears on any day but Sunday are 9-6 (60% ATS), 30-44-3 (41% ATS) on Sundays.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> CIN</td> <td> -4 @ TB</td> <td> All-time against the Buccaneers the Bengals are 2-7 straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> CLE</td> <td> +2 @ BUF</td> <td> Since 20002, the Browns on the road against the AFC East are 7-5 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> DAL</td> <td> -3 vs. PHI</td> <td> Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys on Thanksgiving are 5-3 (80% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> DEN</td> <td> -1 @ KC</td> <td> Since 2012, the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as road favorites against the AFC West are 5-1 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> DET</td> <td> -7 vs. CHI</td> <td> In the last 10 years, the Lions on Thanksgiving are 1-8-1 (11% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> GB</td> <td> -3 vs. NE</td> <td> All-time, the Packers as home favorites in November or later in the season are 64-42-5 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> HOU</td> <td> -6.5 vs. TEN</td> <td> All-time, against the Titans, the Texans are 10-15 (40%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> IND</td> <td> -9.5 vs. WAS</td> <td> Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as favorites of a touchdown or more are 5-1 (63%) straight-up and 4-2 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> JAX</td> <td> +2.5 vs. NYG</td> <td> All-time, the Jaguars as home underdogs are 29-37-1 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> KC</td> <td> 1 vs. DEN</td> <td> All-time, the Chiefs as home underdogs are 61-32-4 (66% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> MIA</td> <td> -5.5 @ NYJ</td> <td> In the last 20 games on Monday Night Football, the Dolphins are 7-12-1 ATS including losing 5 straight against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> MIN</td> <td> -3 vs. CAR</td> <td> All-time, the Vikings facing an opponent coming off a bye are 12-15 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> NE</td> <td> +3 @ GB</td> <td> All-time, in games with a total of 58 points or higher, the over is 10-4 (71% OVER).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> NO</td> <td> +3 @ PIT</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints following a game on Monday Night Football are 9-5 (64% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> NYG</td> <td> -2.5 @ JAX</td> <td> All-time, road favorites in Jacksonville are 37-29-1 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> NYJ</td> <td> +5.5 vs. MIA</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs on Monday Night Football are 32-42 (43% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> OAK</td> <td> +7 @ STL</td> <td> In the last 5 years, the Raiders following a win are 6-17 (26%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> PHI</td> <td> +3 @ DAL</td> <td> Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Eagles as underdogs in Dallas are 5-2 (71% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> PIT</td> <td> -3 vs. NO</td> <td> Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers following a bye week are 8-2 straight-up and 6-4 ATS.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> SD</td> <td> +5 @ BAL</td> <td> Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as road dogs of 3 or more points are 14-9-2 (61% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> SEA</td> <td> +1.5 @ SF</td> <td> Since 2002, when Seattle joined the NFC West, against the 49ers the Seahawks are 15-9-1 (63% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> SF</td> <td> -1.5 vs. SEA</td> <td> All-time, the 49ers on Thursday Night Football are 6-2 (75%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> STL</td> <td> -7 vs. OAK</td> <td> In the last 20 games as favorites of 7 or more points the Rams are 6-14 (30% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> TB</td> <td> +4 vs. CIN</td> <td> All-time, the NFC South against the AFC North is 51-67-4 (43% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> TEN</td> <td> +6.5 @ HOU</td> <td> In the last 20 games against their AFC South brethren, the Titans are 4-15-1 (21% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:18px;”> WAS</td> <td> +9.5 @ IND</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Redskins as dogs of 9 or more points are 10-7-1 (59% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-13 Tue, 25 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Trading places: Luck for RG3. How would such a switch impact the Colts and Redskins?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Luck-Griffin-2014.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The first matchup between Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III comes nearly three years after the two quarterbacks were taken with the first and second overall picks in the 2012 NFL Draft.<br /> <br /> Both quarterbacks were drafted with the hope that they could revitalize once proud franchises. The Colts were coming off a 2-14 campaign and would start a new era without Peyton Manning. The Redskins had gone 5-11 the previous year for a fourth consecutive last-place finish in the NFC East.<br /> <br /> The first season for both quarterbacks was a great success. Luck led the Colts to an 11-win season and a Wild Card berth. Griffin took the Redskins from worst to first as Washington won the NFC East after starting the season 3-6.<br /> <br /> From there the star quarterbacks’ paths have diverged.<br /> <br /> Luck is 30-16 as a starter, has led the Colts to the playoffs in each of his first two seasons and has Indianapolis in the driver’s seat for a second consecutive AFC South division title.<br /> <br /> RG3 suffered a knee injury in his first playoff game. Griffin was able to recover from the surgery in time to start the 2013 season, but Washington went 3-8 before he was <a href=”http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/redskins-bench-robert-griffin-iii-will-start-kirk-cousins/2013/12/11/3fac2d46-627c-11e3-91b3-f2bb96304e34_story.html”>benched for the remainder of the season</a>.<br /> <br /> A new head coach, a new offensive system and a healthy RG3 were supposed to be the keys to a playoff run for the Redskins in 2014. However, Griffin injured his ankle in Week 1, costing the quarterback seven starts. Griffin has since started Washington’s last three games; all loses, leading to speculation that he could <a href=”http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2277604-robert-griffin-iii-reportedly-to-be-benched-by-jay-gruden-if-struggles-continue”>once again be benched</a>.<br /> <br /> With Luck the franchise quarterback we all imagined and Griffin mired in controversy, what would this week’s game and this season look like if the Colts had drafted RG3 with the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft?<br /> <br /> The Indianapolis Colts are 9.5 point favorites at home over the Washington Redskins. The money-line, Indianapolis -485, implies that a bettor would need to have greater than 83 percent confidence in the Colts to win in order to feel comfortable placing a wager.<br /> <br /> After 50,000 simulations, with Luck on Washington and Grillin III starting for Indianapolis, the Redskins would be 59 percent likely to win with an average projected score of 32-28.<br /> <br /> Andrew Luck is so far ahead of Robert Griffin III at this point in their careers that he would make a heavy underdog the projected favorite on the road.<br /> <br /> Over a full season, Luck is even more valuable.<br /> <br /> If Luck were the starter all season in Washington, the Redskins would be projected to win the NFC East with a 10-6 record. Indianapolis, with RG3 would finish second in the AFC South behind Houston with a projected 7.5 wins.<br /> <br /> Luck would be projected to throw for 4,529 yards, 34 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in Jay Gruden’s offense. RG3, assuming a full healthy season, would be projected to throw for 2,994 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a Colt.<br /> <br /> Indianapolis could have drafted Robert Griffin III No. 1 overall in 2012 but instead, the Colts took Andrew Luck. There never really was any doubt that Indy would take Luck with the first pick and two years later there is no doubt the Colts would make the same decision again.<br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Luck-for-RG3-2014 Mon, 24 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Lions-Patriots.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11954″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Patriots vs. Lions</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The New England Patriots rolled the Detroit Lions 34-9 Sunday. Tom Brady threw for 349 yards and two touchdowns against one of the stingiest defenses in the league. The AFC East leading Patriots have now overpowered a division leader for the third straight week, beat Denver and Indianapolis in Weeks 10 and 11 respectively.<br /> <br /> The game-changing possession in this game occurred at the beginning of the second quarter. The Lions went conservative in a 7-3 game and kicked a field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 2-yard line. The safe play, taking the points, actually lowered Detroit’s expected win probability.<br /> <br /> One might argue that with an elite defense the Lions were justified in kicking the field goal. However, at that moment Detroit’s offense had not scored a touchdown in five quarters (has now went two games without scoring an offensive touchdown) and they were facing one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL, the Lion’s were going to need all the points they could get.<br /> <br /> Had Detroit went for it on fourth down and scored a touchdown, the Lions would have led 10-7 and it would have increased Detroit’s expected win probability from 40 percent to 50 percent. Even if the Lions fail to score the touchdown, Detroit’s expected win probability is slightly higher than kicking the field goal because it’s still a one possession game and the Patriots have to drive 98 yards to score.<br /> <br /> Following the Detroit field goal, New England closed the first half with 17 unanswered points. The Patriots were 95 percent likely to win leading 24-6 after two quarters.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11954″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size: 16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11956″><span style=”color: rgb(178, 34, 34);”>Broncos vs. Dolphins</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Denver Broncos scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to rally for a 39-36 win over the Miami Dolphins Sunday afternoon. Peyton Manning threw four touchdowns and C.J. Anderson rushed for 167 yards and the go-ahead score.<br /> <br /> Miami controlled the first half and looked on the verge to add to its 21-10 lead when Denver faced a 3rd and 20 with less than a minute remaining in the half. Manning found Emmanuel Sanders for a 35-yard gain, giving the Broncos a first down deep in Dolphin territory. Three plays later Denver scored to cut Miami’s lead to 21-17.<br /> <br /> Denver’s expected win probability increased from 27 percent to 47 percent.<br /> <br /> Had Miami forced Denver to punt, the Dolphins would have been 75 percent likely to win with the ball and leading 21-10.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11956″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Mike-Smith-Falcons-Atlanta.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <h2> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11951″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Browns vs. Falcons</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Cleveland Highlights: Josh Gordon looked good in his return from suspension, Brian Hoyer overcame throwing three interceptions to lead a game winning drive in the final minute and Billy Cundiff connected on a 37-yard field goal as time expired to give the Browns a 26-24 victory. Cleveland’s playoff hopes are still alive in a tough NFC North.<br /> <br /> Atlanta Lowlights: Poor clock management. Once again Mike Smith’s late game decision making cost the Falcons a game. After blowing a game against Detroit by not running off enough time in the closing minutes it was déjà vu all over again.<br /> <br /> On Atlanta’s final possession, with the ball on the Cleveland 35-yard line, inside kicker Matt Bryant’s range, the Falcons needed to start thinking about running the clock. However, with less than a minute remaining Mike Smith called a timeout.<br /> <br /> The poor choice stopped the clock for Cleveland and saved the Browns a valuable timeout. On the next play, 3rd and 2, the Falcons compounded the mistake by trying to throw the ball. The incomplete pass once again saved the Browns a timeout.<br /> <br /> Atlanta took the lead on Bryant’s 53-yard field goal but the inexplicable decisions by Mike Smith left Cleveland with 44 seconds and all three timeouts.<br /> <br /> When the Browns got the ball back, again with all three timeouts remaining, Cleveland had a 47 percent chance of winning. Had Cleveland spent two timeouts on Atlanta’s previous possession, the Browns expected win probability would have decreased to 37 percent.<br /> <br /> 10 percent might not seem like much but in a game of inches, or timeouts, every second matters.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11951″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11956″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Chargers vs. Rams</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The San Diego Chargers picked off Shaun Hill in the end zone with a minute left to preserve a 27-24 victory. The Rams were 76 percent likely to win after getting a first-and-goal from the San Diego 6-yard line.<br /> <br /> With the Rams mere yards from another upset, had St. Louis not turned the ball over and instead tied the game with a field goal, would the Rams have won in overtime?<br /> <br /> Possibly. It all depends on which team gets possession first in the extra session. If the Chargers get the ball first then San Diego is 60 percent likely to win. The Rams would have been 55 percent likely to win in overtime if they got the first crack on offense.<br /> <br /> When a game is decided in the final minute with a turnover in the end zone, it is likely the outcome in overtime would be equally dramatic.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11956″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11960″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Cowboys vs. Giants</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> If you haven’t seen it yet, <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O1MT3bPJzzM”>Odell Beckham Jr.’s catch was awesome</a>!<br /> <br /> Unfortunately, that catch alone was not enough for the Giants to win the game. Tony Romo rallied Dallas from a 21-10 halftime deficit to lead a game-winning drive in the final minutes. <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O1O2V9hIu7l”>Romo found Dez Bryant</a> with 1:01 remaining to give Dallas a 31-28 victory.<br /> <br /> The New York Giants had an opportunity to tie or win the game with a minute of game time and three timeouts remaining. On the Giants final possession, facing a 4th and 2 from their own 28-yard line, Eli Manning connected with Rashad Jennings for a 2-yard gain picking up the first down. Replay officials challenged the first down ruling and the play was reversed.<br /> <br /> Had the call been upheld, the Giants would have had a 32 percent chance of winning the game with 40 seconds and two timeouts remaining.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11960″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week12-2014 Sun, 23 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Patriots, Packers and 49ers. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Ndamukong-Suh-Detroit-Lions.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> With another weekend of NFL betting action just around the corner, let’s look at the line movements in some of the more interesting games to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Patriots, Packers and 49ers.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Patriots vs. Lions</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> After impressive back-to-back wins over the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts, using two very different offensive approaches (passing vs. Denver, rushing vs. Indy), New England opened as 3.5 points favorites against the Detroit Lions. Over 90 percent of the wagers have been on the Patriots to cover. New England is now favored over the Lions by a touchdown in Foxborough.<br /> <br /> Fun fact: if the Lions lose to the Patriots, Matthew Stafford would drop to 0-16 all-time on the road against teams that finish the season with a winning record (per ESPN Stats & Info).<br /> <br /> <strong>Total Rushing Yards Week 12 – Jonas Gray </strong> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 62.5</li> </ul> <br /> Jonas Gray carried the ball 37 times for 201 yards against Indianapolis last week. Gray had only rushed the ball 32 times in his previous three NFL games. Against a formidable Lions rushing defense, we project Gray to carry the ball 16 times and for <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-New-England-Patriots-Detroit-Lions-11-23-2014″>less than 60 yards</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Packers vs. Vikings</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> In a showdown between NFC North rivals, little respect is being given to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay opened as 6 point favorites but this line is threatening to cross the double digits threshold. The Packers are now favored by 9.5 points on the road after scoring 50 or more points in the team’s previous two homes game.<br /> <br /> The Vikings have only been <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-12″>home underdogs of 10 or more points once</a>; Minnesota covered the spread (+11 vs. 49ers in 1985).<br /> <br /> <strong>Will the Packers score 50 or more points Week 12? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +600</li> <li> No: -1000</li> </ul> <br /> The Packers scored 50 or more points in back-to-back games (against Chicago and Philadelphia) for the first time in franchise history. Green Bay averages an NFL best 33.0 point per game. Six teams have scored 50 points in back-to-back games in NFL history, including one in each of the last three seasons.<br /> <br /> After 50,000 simulations, the Packers score <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Picks/NFL-Picks-Week12-11-23-2014″>less than 30 points on average</a> against Minnesota this week.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>49ers vs. Redskins</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> San Francisco returns home after securing two road victories. Despite the winning streak, the 49ers are <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-11-18-2014-Standings”>projected to miss the playoffs</a> for the first time in three years. In a critical game for San Francisco’s playoff hopes, the Niners opened as 7.5 point favorites against the Washington Redskins.<br /> <br /> All the money is on the 49ers to win and cover, San Francisco is now favored by 9 points at home against Washington. Even though they are heavy favorites, the Niners can’t get caught looking ahead to their Thanksgiving matchup with Seattle.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will the Seahawks and 49ers both make the playoffs? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +200</li> <li> No: -300</li> </ul> <br /> If the playoffs started today, both San Francisco and Seattle would be out of the playoffs. San Francisco has a 51.9 percent chance and Seattle has a 46.4 percent chance of reaching the postseason. There is no value in betting that both NFC West teams will make the playoffs.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Line-movement-week-12-2014 Fri, 21 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 12 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Jonas-Gray-New-England-Patriots.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>Week 12 �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, underdogs of 10 or more points are 224-176-4 (56% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Jaguars (+14) @ Colts and Titans (+11) @ Eagles.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, teams that start the season 0-10 are 8-4 (67% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+7) vs. Chiefs.</li> </ul> <br /> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, road favorites coming off of a bye are 46-23-1 (67% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (-3.5) @ Giants</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 12</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td class=”rank”> +6.5 @ SEA</td> <td> In the last twenty games, road teams in Seattle are 6-13-1 (32% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> -3 vs. CLE</td> <td> Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as home favorites are 23-17-2 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td> +3.5 @ NO</td> <td> Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens coming off a bye week are 5-1 straight-up and 5-1 (83% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td> -4.5 vs. NYJ</td> <td> All-time, teams that played the previous Thursday night game and are home favorites are 70-55 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> -5.5 vs. TB</td> <td> Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as home favorites are 11-16-2 (41% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> +1.5 @ HOU</td> <td> Since 2011, the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals on the road are 16-12-2 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> +3 @ ATL</td> <td> All-time, the Browns against the NFC South are 18-13-1 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td> -3.5 @ NYG</td> <td> Since 2006, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys coming off a bye are 7-1 (88% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -7 vs. MIA</td> <td> In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos following a regular season loss are 7-1 (88% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> +7 @ NE</td> <td> All-time, the Lions in Foxborough are lambs. Detroit is 2-6 straight-up playing in New England.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -10 @ MIN</td> <td> Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers as favorites of 10 or more points are 12-8 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> HOU</td> <td> -1.5 vs. CIN</td> <td> In the last ten games against teams from the AFC North, the Texans are 7-3 (70% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> -14 vs. JAX</td> <td> Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as favorites are 15-10-1 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> JAX</td> <td> +14 @ IND</td> <td> Since 2008, the last time the Jags were in the playoffs, Jacksonville is 40-66 (38% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> -7 @ OAK</td> <td> All-time, teams that have covered the spread in nine straight games are 1-3 (25% ATS) in the next game.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> +7 @ DEN</td> <td> All-time, teams that played the previous Thursday night game and are underdogs of 7 or more points are 33-26 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIN</td> <td> +10 vs. GB</td> <td> The Vikings have only been home underdogs of 10 or more points once, they covered the spread (+11 vs. 49ers in 1985).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> -7 vs. DET</td> <td> Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as home favorites of 7 or more points are 29-35-1 (45% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> -3.5 vs. BAL</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, when facing a team coming off a bye the Saints are 3-7 (30% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td> +3.5 vs. DAL</td> <td> All-time, the Giants as home underdogs against the Cowboys are 12-4 (75% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYJ</td> <td> +4.5 @ BUF</td> <td> In the last 5 years, the over is 176-140-4 (56% OVER) in games where the total is 40 or fewer points.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +7 vs. KC</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs on Thursday Night Football are 17-24-2 (42% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> -11 vs. TEN</td> <td> All-time, teams that lost the previous week by four or more touchdowns and are favorites are 77-97-7 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SD</td> <td> -4.5 vs. STL</td> <td> Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 32-25-1 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> -6.5 vs. AZ</td> <td> Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks at home against the NFC West are 5-2 (71% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td> -9 vs. WAS</td> <td> In the last ten games as a home favorite the 49ers are 3-7 (30% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td> +4.5 @ SD</td> <td> In the last ten games against teams from the AFC West the Rams are 6-4 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> +5.5 @ CHI</td> <td> All-time, coming off of a win by two or more touchdowns the Buccaneers are 41-31 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +11 @ PHI</td> <td> All-time, teams that played on Monday night and are dogs of 10 or more points are 13-6-1 (68% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> WAS</td> <td> +9 @ SF</td> <td> In the last ten games on the road the Redskins are 3-7 (30% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-12 Tue, 18 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Does Adrian Peterson’s suspension matter?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Adrian-Peterson-Vikings.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The NFL, now, more than ever, is a quarterback league. Offenses have shifted toward mores shotgun and multiple receivers sets and away from the ground and pound of yesteryear.<br /> <br /> Some organizations (Dallas, Seattle and Kansas City) have found success building around workhorse running backs (DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles), but the three best teams in our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-11-18-2014″>Power Rankings</a> are top ten in offensive passing efficiency.<br /> <br /> Do NFL running backs really matter anymore? Does Adrian Peterson’s suspension really impact the Vikings’ season?<br /> <br /> Adrian Peterson is one of the best running backs in the game. Peterson has missed nine games this year and the <a href=”http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11896187/adrian-peterson-minnesota-vikings-suspended-least-rest-season”>NFL plans to ban</a> the running back for the remainder of the season due to off-the-field issues. The Minnesota Vikings are 4-6 and outside the playoff picture.<br /> <br /> For as great as Adrian Peterson has been in his career, if he played all season, would Peterson really make a difference to the Vikings’ playoff chances?<br /> <br /> To find out we ran 50,000 simulations of the Minnesota Vikings 2014 season with Adrian Peterson playing. Note: Teddy Bridgewater plays the full season in the simulations.<br /> <br /> With Adrian Peterson, the Vikings finish third in the NFC North with a 7.5-8.5 projected record. Peterson is projected to finish third (behind DeMarco Murray and Le’Veon Bell) in the league in rushing with 1,553.3 yards and 14.4 touchdowns.<br /> <br /> Without Peterson, Minnesota is currently projected to finish last in the NFC North with a 6.6-9.4 record. The Vikings have a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-11-18-2014-Standings”>1.6 percent chance of reaching the playoffs</a> and a 0.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> Adrian Peterson is a talented running back, but as a running back he has less impact on a season than the casual fan might expect. Unfortunately for Minnesota, even if Peterson had played all season the Vikings would not be a playoff team.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Adrian-Peterson-playing-full-season-Vikings Tue, 18 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Could the Rams make the playoffs in the NFC South?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/St-Louis-Rams-2014.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> The St. Louis Rams shocked the NFL by holding Peyton Manning to his lowest scoring day as a Bronco in Sunday’s 22-7 victory. The Broncos had scored 17 or more points in each of Manning’s first 41 regular season games but the Rams held the defending AFC Champions to one touchdown.<br /> <br /> At 4-6, the Rams are not out of the playoffs. But with five teams ahead of St. Louis in the NFC Wild Card race, the Rams’ margin for error is small. We give St. Louis a <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-11-18-2014-Standings”>2.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason</a> and a 0.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> With a dominating performance against one of the best teams in the league and victories over the past two NFC Champions, Seattle and San Francisco, one might wonder if St. Louis could make the playoffs if it were in a different division, say the NFC South.<br /> <br /> The NFC South has been a running joke this season. The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons have backed their way into first place in the division. Could St. Louis be the best team in the league’s worst division?<br /> <br /> To find out we used 50,000 simulations to determine if St. Louis could make the playoffs if the Rams were part of the NFC South. We ran two simulations, the first with the Rams playing the New Orleans Saints’ schedule, the second with the Rams playing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ schedule.<br /> <br /> After 50,000 simulations the St. Louis Rams (playing the Saints’ schedule) would win the NFC South with a projected record of 9.0-7.0. The Rams would have a 77.5 percent chance of making the playoffs and a 2.1 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> Of course taking the Saints out of the division makes the NFC South much easier. What would the Rams’ chances be of reaching the playoffs if they had to play New Orleans twice during the regular season?<br /> <br /> After 50,000 simulations the St. Louis Rams (playing the Buccaneers’ schedule) would finish second in the NFC South (behind the Saints) with a projected record of 7.6-8.4. Even though the Rams would not be projected to win the division, St. Louis would have a 39.7 percent chance of making the playoffs and 0.9 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> St. Louis averaged 4.0 rushing yards per play including 113 yards from rookie Tre Mason against one of the league’s best run defenses in Sunday’s victory over Denver. Every team in the NFC South ranks middle of the road or worse in <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Team-Rankings-11-18-2014″>defensive rushing efficiency</a>.<br /> <br /> Coming into the season the Rams had hopes for a terrifying defense led by a front seven capable of producing sacks from any position. St. Louis had just one sack through the team’s first five games, an NFL record. Since Week 7, the Rams have 18 sacks on 222 dropbacks looking like the dominant unit many imagined before the season.<br /> <br /> An improved run game and defense, plus playing in the NFC South, would dramatically increase the St. Louis Rams’ chances of returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2004.<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Rams in the NFC South</strong></span><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Projected Stats</th> <th> Playing Saints Schedule</th> <th> Playing Buccaneers Schedule</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Record</td> <td> 9.0-7.0</td> <td> 7.6-8.4</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chance to reach playoffs</td> <td> 77.5%</td> <td> 39.7%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chance to win Super Bowl</td> <td> 2.1%</td> <td> 0.9%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Rams-in-the-NFC-South Tue, 18 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Rams-Broncos.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11738″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Broncos vs. Rams</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O5Ivg2b0U5a”>St. Louis Rams rocked the Denver Broncos</a> Sunday afternoon upending the AFC West leaders 22-7. The Rams as 9.5 point underdogs became the projected winner early in the game.<br /> <br /> The Broncos faced a 4th and 5 from the St. Louis 37-yard line late in the first quarter. Denver, in no man’s land, decided to go for the first down instead of attempting a 50+ yard field goal or punting. Peyton Manning’s pass fell incomplete and the Rams took over on downs.<br /> <br /> On the next play, Shaun Hill found <a href=”https://vine.co/v/O5jla2lMABT”>Kenny Britt for a 63-yard touchdown</a> that gave St. Louis a 10-0 lead. The Rams’ expected win probability increased from 34 percent to 53 percent.<br /> <br /> Had Denver picked up the first down instead of turning the ball over, the Broncos would have become 75 percent likely to win with a fresh set of downs and trailing only 3-0.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11738″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11736″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Seahawks vs. Chiefs</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Kansas City defense stopped Seattle on fourth and short on back-to-back possessions in the fourth quarter as the Chiefs beat the Seahawks 24-20. Kansas City is now tied with Denver with the best record atop the AFC West.<br /> <br /> What if? That is the question Seahawks fans will ask themselves, what if Seattle had kicked field goals instead of going for it on fourth down late in the game, could the defending champions have won?<br /> <br /> First, we cannot assume that the game would have played out as it did if Seattle kicks a field goal the first time it faced fourth a short in the final quarter (we cannot assume the Seahawks would have had an opportunity to win the game with a field goal later in the game). Instead let’s examine if going for it on fourth down in both situations was the correct call.<br /> <br /> Trailing 24-20 with less than eight minutes to play, was going for it on 4th and 2 from the Kansas City 2-yard line the correct call? When Seattle failed to score a touchdown, the Seahawks expected win probability decreased from 43 percent to 28 percent. Had the Seahawks kicked the field goal, Seattle would have still been the projected loser. However, if Seattle scores the touchdown, the Seahawks become 67 percent likely to win leading 27-24.<br /> <br /> Failure on fourth down would have decreased Seattle’s expected win probability by 15 percent while scoring the touchdown would have increased the Seahawks odds of by winning by nearly 25 percent. Going for it was the correct call.<br /> <br /> Trailing 24-20 with less than four minutes to play, was going for it on 4th and 1 from the Kansas City 36-yard line the correct call? I think everyone, even the casual fan, would agree that going for it trailing late in the fourth quarter is the correct call. The numbers agree as well.<br /> <br /> Failing to pick up the first down decreased Seattle’s expected win probability by less than ten percent. Moving the chains and having four more downs to take the lead would have increased the Seahawks’ odds of winning by more than 20 percent.<br /> <br /> While the results were not positive for Seattle, going for it on fourth down in the fourth quarter, both times, was the correct call.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11736″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11733″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Falcons vs. Panthers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Atlanta Falcons held off the Carolina Panthers to win 19-17 Sunday. The Falcons are 4-6 and are tied for first place in the NFC South, but Atlanta holds the tiebreaker with the Saints after beating New Orleans in Week 1.<br /> <br /> The Panthers had opportunities to win the game, especially late but conservative play calling may have cost Carolina a chance at the victory.<br /> <br /> Trailing 19-17 with less than two minutes to play, Carolina had a first down on the Falcons 32-yard line. The Panthers became 90 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Carolina needing only a field goal to win ran the ball three consecutive times up the middle gaining just four yards. The Panthers settled for a 46-yard field goal to take the lead.<br /> <br /> Before the field goal attempt, because of predictable play calling, Carolina’s expected win probability had decreased from 90 percent to 47 percent. Following Graham Gano’s missed 46-yard field goal the Panthers’ chance of winning dropped to eight percent.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11733″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11737″><span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>49ers vs. Giants</strong></span></span></a></h2> <p> The San Francisco 49ers won their second straight road game beating the New York Giants 16-10 thanks to a horrible performance from Giants quarterback Eli Manning.<br /> <br /> Manning led the NFL with 27 interceptions in 2013. We projected Manning to <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-NFL-Predictions-turnovers-equal-turnaround”>lead the league in interceptions</a> thrown for the second straight season coming into this year.<br /> <br /> With five interceptions thrown against San Francisco, Manning is making a late season push to make our prediction come true. The five picks cost the Giants 58.9 percent in expected win probability over the course of the game.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11737″>click here</a>.</p> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week11-2014 Sun, 16 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Packers, Seahawks and Lions. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Jordy-nelson-Green-Bay-Packers.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Week 10 saw <a href=”http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/11/ben-roethlisberger-justin-bieber-jinx”>Justin Bieber jinx the Steelers</a>, lots of blowouts as eight of the thirteen games were decided by two touchdowns or more, a <a href=”https://twitter.com/Jake_Friel/status/530772535882027010″>cat become a fan of the Browns</a> (a team with a dog as the unofficial mascot, and the NFL South implode (except for Atlanta, which won) as the entire division might finish with losing records.<br /> <br /> With another weekend of NFL betting action just around the corner, let’s look at the line movements in some of the more interesting games to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Packers, Seahawks and Lions.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Packers vs. Eagles</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Aaron Rodgers tied an NFL record with six touchdown passes in the first half of the Packers 55-14 blowout of Chicago. Even though Philadelphia easily dispatched Carolina in Mark Sanchez’s first start in nearly two years, Green Bay opened as 3.5 point favorites. With three-fourths of the bets on the Packers to cover, Aaron Rodgers and company are now favored by 6 points over the Eagles in Lambeau.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Aaron Rodgers thrown an interception at home in the 2014 Regular Season? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: -250</li> <li> No: +175</li> </ul> <br /> The Packers are 32-3 in their last 35 regular-season home games with Aaron Rodgers. One reason for the impressive record, the 2011 NFL MVP hasn’t thrown an interception at home since December 2012.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Seahawks vs. Chiefs</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Seattle has won three straight games thanks to its running game. The Seahawks lead the league averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Kansas City’s defense has struggled to stop the run ranking 30th in yards per carry allowed. Obviously the Hawks would be favored on the road, right?<br /> <br /> The defending champions opened as 1.5 point road favorites, but the line has swung to Kansas City -2, though Seattle appears to have a major matchup advantage. Perhaps the public wants to keep betting a good thing. The Chiefs have covered eight straight games.<br /> <br /> <strong>How many 100 or more Rushing Yard games will Russell Wilson have in the 2014 Regular Season? </strong> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 3.5</li> </ul> <br /> Russell Wilson joined Michael Vick as the only NFL quarterbacks with three 100-yard rushing games in a season. Wilson has 500 rushing yards on the season and is averaging over seven yards per carry.<br /> <br /> <h2> <strong><span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”>Cardinals vs. Lions</span></span></strong></h2> <br /> Arizona enters the marquee matchup of Week 11 with the best record in the league. Unfortunately, the Cardinals will be without starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the remainder of the season.<br /> <br /> The NFC West leading Cardinals opened as field goal favorites. The injury to Palmer coupled with a Detroit defense that leads the NFL in points per game and yards per game allowed has seen the line drop to Arizona -1.5 at home.<br /> <br /> Arizona is looking for its sixth straight victory while Detroit will try to extend its four game winning streak.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will the Lions be trailing in the game within the last 2 minutes and come back to win Week 11</strong> <ul> <li> Yes: +700</li> <li> No: -1500</li> </ul> <br /> The Lions have trailed in the last two minutes in each of the last three games and yet still found a way to win. If Detroit is trailing in the fourth it could be difficult to rally against the Cardinals. Arizona is first in the league in point differential and turnover margin in the final quarter of the game (per ESPN Stat & Info).<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Line-movement-week-11-2014 Fri, 14 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 11 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Colts-Patriots.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Week 11 �“ Situational Trends</strong></span><br /> <br /> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, all teams coming off a bye and as a home favorite are 82-63-3 (57% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Colts (-3) vs. Patriots, Chargers (-10) vs. Raiders and Redskins (-7) vs. Buccaneers.</li> </ul> <br /> Last year, favorites of 7 or more points were 41-44-2 (48% ATS). This year, favorites of 7 or more points are 22-18-1 (55% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Broncos (-9.5) @ Rams, Saints (-7) vs. Bengals, Chargers (-10) vs. Raiders and Redskins (-7) vs. Buccaneers.</li> </ul> <br /> All-time, teams that have covered the spread in eight straight games are 5-5-1 (50% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Seahawks.</li> </ul> <br /> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 11</strong></span><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td class=”rank”> -2 vs. DET</td> <td> All-time, teams with eight wins in Week 11 and as favorites are 24-19-2 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td> +1.5 @ CAR</td> <td> Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons on the road against the NFC South are 6-11-1 (35% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td> +5.5 @ MIA</td> <td> All-time, underdogs of 3 or more points on Thursday Night are 71-87-8 (45% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> -1.5 vs. ATL</td> <td> Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers against the NFC South are 12-8 (60% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> -3 vs. MIN</td> <td> All-time, teams that lost by 40 or more points and return home the next game are 26-20-2 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> +7 @ NO</td> <td> All-time, teams that lost by 3 touchdowns or more and are road dogs of 3 or more points are 246-200-12 (55% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> -3 vs. HOU</td> <td> All-time, teams that last played on Thursday Night and are home favorites are 70-53 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -9.5 @ STL</td> <td> The Broncos, with Peyton Manning, as favorites of 7 or more points are 17-7-2 (71% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> +2 @ AZ</td> <td> Since 2011, the Matthew Stafford era, the Lions on the road are 12-16-1 (43% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -5.5 vs. PHI</td> <td> The Packers, in the last twenty games as home favorites are 11-8-1 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> HOU</td> <td> +3 @ CLE</td> <td> All-time, in Texans’ games following a bye, the under is 8-4 (67% Under).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> IND</td> <td> -3 vs. NE</td> <td> Teams facing Tom Brady off of a bye are 3-10 straight-up, Andrew Luck as favorite is 15-9-1 (63% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> -1.5 vs. SEA</td> <td> All-time, the Chiefs as home favorites in November or later in the season are 40-52-2 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> -5.5 vs. BUF</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home favorites on Thursday Night are 38-24-5 (61% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIN</td> <td> +3 @ CHI</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, underdogs coming off a bye are 55-123-2 (31%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NE</td> <td> +3 @ IND</td> <td> Since 2001, the Patriots as road dogs are 29-15 (66% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> -7 vs. CIN</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, following a loss the Saints are 20-14 (59% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td> +4 vs. SF</td> <td> Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as home dogs are 3-10 (30%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +10 @ SD</td> <td> All-time, winless teams in Week 11 or later of the season are 28-15 (65% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> +5.5 @ GB</td> <td> In Mark Sanchez’s career as a starter, as a road dog of 3 or more points he is 7-11-1 (39% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> -5.5 @ TEN</td> <td> Since 2004, road favorites on Monday Night Football are 35-27 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SD</td> <td> -10 vs. OAK</td> <td> All-time, teams coming off a bye and as favorites of 10 or more points are 19-24-3 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> +1.5 @ KC</td> <td> Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as road dogs are 5-1-1 (83% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td> -4 @ NYG</td> <td> Since 2012, the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers on the road are 13-6-2 (68% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td> +9.5 vs. DEN</td> <td> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs of 7 or more points are 121-91-3 (57% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> +7 @ WAS</td> <td> In the last five years, the Buccaneers as road dogs of 7 or more points are 15-9 (63% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +5.5 vs. TEN</td> <td> In the last ten years, home dogs on Monday Night Football are 27-35 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> WAS</td> <td> -7 vs. TB</td> <td> In the last 20 games as favorites of 7 or more points, the Redskins are 6-14 (30% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-11 Tue, 11 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Can the Cardinals win the Super Bowl with Drew Stanton?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Drew-Stanton-Arizona-Cardinals.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Monday Arizona Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians confirmed that quarterback Carson Palmer suffered a season-ending knee injury in Sunday’s 31-14 win against the St. Louis Rams.<br /> <br /> The injury will force backup Drew Stanton into the lineup. Stanton is 4-3 as a starter in his career and went 2-1 earlier this season when Palmer was sidelined by a dead nerve in his throwing shoulder.<br /> <br /> In four games for the Cardinals this season, Stanton has completed 49.5% of his passes for 614 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Stanton is not nearly as accurate as Palmer who had a 62.9% completion rate this year.<br /> <br /> Can the Cardinals win the Super Bowl with Drew Stanton?<br /> <br /> With Palmer starting the rest of the season the Cardinals, with the best record in the NFL, are projected to win the NFC West with an 11.4-4.6 record (an average of 50,000 simulations). Arizona has a 90 percent chance of reaching the playoffs and a 6 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, the sixth best odds in the league.<br /> <br /> With Stanton starting the rest of the season the Cardinals are still projected to <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Playoff-Odds-11-11-2014-Standings”>win the NFC West</a>. With a projected record of 11.1-4.9, Arizona has an 83 percent chance of making the playoffs. However, the Cardinals have just a 3 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl on its home field.<br /> <br /> By virtue of its 8-1 record Arizona is almost certainly a playoff team, even with Stanton starting. The downgrade at quarterback though does cause a 50 percent reduction in the Cardinals’ Super Bowl odds.<br /> <br /> Arizona will still reach the postseason with Stanton but it’s more likely to be watching the Super Bowl from home then playing it on their home field.<br /> <br /> <strong>Cardinals Project Season �“ with and without Carson Palmer</strong><br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Projected Stats</th> <th> With Palmer</th> <th> With Stanton</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Record</td> <td> 11.4-4.6</td> <td> 11.1-4.9</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chance to reach playoffs</td> <td> 90%</td> <td> 83%</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Chance to win Super Bowl</td> <td> 6%</td> <td> 3%</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Cardinals-Super-Bowl-Odds-Palmer-Stanton Mon, 10 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<span style=”font-size: 12px;”>To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, </span><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball” style=”font-size: 12px;”>Live ScoreCaster</a><span style=”font-size: 12px;”>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.</span><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Steelers-Jets.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11578″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Jets vs. Steelers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The New York Jets avoided setting a franchise record for consecutive losses by defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-13 Sunday afternoon. Michael Vick threw two touchdowns and the Jets forced four turnovers in the win.<br /> <br /> In addition to the turnovers, Gang Green was aided in the victory when Pittsburgh decided to stop being aggressive. Facing a 4th and 2 from the New York 5-yard line at the start of the fourth, the Steelers decided to attempt a field goal trailing 20-3.<br /> <br /> At that point in the contest Pittsburgh had just a two percent chance of winning. A field goal cuts the lead to 20-6; the Steelers’ expected win probability would actually decrease when the Jets got the ball back on the ensuing kickoff.<br /> <br /> Ergo, the Steelers were not trying to win the game.<br /> <br /> Had the Steelers gone for it, a first down increases Pittsburgh’s odds of winning to 5 percent, a touchdown on that drive gives the Steel Curtain a 10 percent chance of winning.<br /> <br /> Now you say to yourself, that doesn’t take into consideration the possibility of turning the ball over on downs. True, failing to pick up a fourth down attempt is usually detrimental to a team’s chances of winning. However, at that point in the game failing to convert does not dramatically impact the outcome of the matchup.<br /> <br /> In fact, the Steelers missed the chip shot field goal and their odds of winning decreased from two percent to one percent.<br /> <br /> The irony is that Pittsburgh’s Head Coach Mike Tomlin went for it on fourth down later in the game when the team was facing a 4th and 21.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11578″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11580″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>49ers vs. Saints</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> San Francisco ended New Orleans’ eleven game winning streak in the Superdome defeating the Saints 27-24 in overtime. The Niners overcame long odds on the team’s final possession in regulation and overtime to win the game.<br /> <br /> Colin Kaepernick completed a 51-yard pass on 4th and 10 to keep the game tying drive alive in the final minutes of regulation. Before that play San Francisco had just a five percent chance of winning.<br /> <br /> In the extra session, Ahmad Brooks sacked and stripped Drew Brees setting up Phil Dawson’s game winning 35-yard field goal. Two plays earlier, the Saints had a fresh set of downs and the 49ers were 43 percent likely to win. The turnover increased San Francisco’s odds of winning to 95 percent.<br /> <br /> The Niners rode the expected win probability roller coaster in their win over the Saints. San Francisco saw its expected win probability swing from over 80 percent when the team was leading 24-10 in the second half to as low as five percent needing to convert a fourth down at the end of regulation.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11580″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11576″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Chiefs vs. Bills</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Buffalo let one get away as the Bills squandered multiple scoring opportunities and blew a double-digit lead in the fourth. Leading 13-3, the Bills were as much as 97 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> Kansas City scored two touchdowns in four minutes in the fourth to rally for a 17-13 victory. The Chiefs expected win probability increased from three percent before the first touchdown to 77 percent after last year’s Wild Card team took the lead.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11576″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11584″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Cardinals vs. Rams</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Arizona extended its NFL best record to 8-1 with a 31-14 victory over St. Louis. Don’t let the score fool you, this game was competitive.<br /> <br /> After missing a field goal with 11:21 left in the fourth, having Carson Palmer leave the game with an injury and trailing 14-10, Arizona had just a 20 percent chance of winning. Three touchdowns in less than four minutes, including two <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OimezPKzWQI”>defensive scores</a> for the Cardinals, increased Arizona’s expected win probability to 99 percent.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11584″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week10-2014 Sun, 9 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Peyton-Manning-Raiders.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> With another weekend of NFL betting action just around the corner, let’s look at the line movements in some of the more interesting games to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Steelers and Eagles.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Broncos @ Raiders</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Denver just suffered its worst regular season defeat in Peyton Manning’s three seasons in Mile High, yet the defending AFC Champions opened as double-digit road favorites against the Raiders. Denver is now favored by 11.5 points in Oakland.<br /> <br /> Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, there have been 19 instances when a team lost by three or more touchdowns the previous week and then was favored by double digits the next week. In those games the double-digit favorite has covered the spread <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>63 percent of the time (12-7 ATS)</a>.<br /> <br /> <strong>How many QB’s will throw 40 or more TD Passes in the 2014 Regular Season? </strong> <ul> <li> Over/Under: 1.5</li> </ul> <br /> Two quarterbacks, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, are currently on pace for over 40 touchdowns. There have been seven times when a quarterback has thrown for over 40 touchdowns in a season since 2000.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Steelers @ Jets</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Ben Roethlisberger became the first quarterback to throw 12 touchdown passes in two games. The Steelers have now won three games in a row, while the Jets are looking to avoid a franchise record ninth straight loss.<br /> <br /> Over 90 percent of the money is on Pittsburgh to cover. The Steelers opened as 1.5 points favorites in the look-ahead lines but the flood of money on Pittsburgh has drove the line to the Steel City -5.<br /> <br /> <strong>Will Ben Roethlisberger throw 6 or more TD Passes Week 10? </strong> <ul> <li> Yes: 20/1</li> </ul> <br /> Doubtful. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown six touchdowns in each of the last two weeks with zero interceptions. The odds imply there is less than a 5 percent chance of Big Ben tossing six more scores against the Jets.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Eagles vs. Panthers</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> Philadelphia is a 6 point favorite at home against Carolina. The over/under in this game is set at 48 points. Nick Foles will miss six to eight weeks with a broken collarbone. The line movement in this game is interesting because there hasn’t been any.<br /> <br /> Why wouldn’t the line move when the starting quarterback of a 6-2 division leading team gets hurt? Chip Kelly’s offense is quarterback friendly.<br /> <br /> With Mark Sanchez as the starter we project the Eagles to <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Chip-Kellys-offense-Sanchez-Foles-Weeden”>make the playoffs 76 percent</a> of the time and to have nearly a 5 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> <strong>Who will be the starting QB for the Eagles for game 1 of the 2015 Regular Season? </strong> <ul> <li> Mark Sanchez: 5/2</li> <li> Nick Foles: 4/1</li> <li> Matt Barkley: 5/1</li> <li> Any Other QB: 1/1</li> </ul> <br /> The options at quarterback aren’t great in Philadelphia. Sources say the <a href=”http://www.nj.com/eagles/index.ssf/2014/11/eagles_started_to_sour_on_nick_foles_before_his_injury.html”>Eagles had soured on Foles</a> even before the injury. Mark Sanchez is famous for a <a href=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vuvz15OjCVc”>butt fumble</a>. Perhaps this is why “Any Other QB” is listed as the favorite to start in 2015.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/NFL-Line-movement-week-10-2014 Fri, 7 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Mark-Sanchez-Eagles.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Good news: the Philadelphia Eagles are 6-2 and are in first place in the NFC East.<br /> <br /> Bad news: quarterback Nick Foles has a broken collarbone and is <a href=”http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11815372/nick-foles-philadelphia-eagles-crack-collarbone”>expected to miss six to eight weeks</a>. Aaron Rodgers missed seven weeks last year with the same injury.<br /> <br /> Good news: the Eagles have an experienced backup who has twice led his team to conference championship games.<br /> <br /> Bad news: the backup is failed Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez.<br /> <br /> To be fair, Sanchez looked good at times in relief of Foles last Sunday against the Texans. Sanchez threw for 202 yards and two touchdowns. He also tossed two picks, one of which wasn’t his fault but that was against a Houston defense missing both of its starting cornerbacks.<br /> <br /> Chip Kelly’s offense does not require a star under center to succeed. Everyone remembers Foles’ amazing run in 2013 when he threw 27 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Few remember that Foles had lost a training camp battle to Michael Vick earlier in the year and in six starts as a rookie threw as many touchdowns as interceptions in Andy Reid’s last season in Philadelphia.<br /> <br /> If Sanchez starts the rest of the season, how will this impact the Eagles playoff and Super Bowl odds?<br /> <br /> We simulated the remainder of Philadelphia’s schedule with Foles and Sanchez as the starters to find out. Note: in the simulations we assume that Tony Romo is the starter for Dallas the rest of the season.<br /> <br /> With Foles as the starter the Eagles are projected to score 29.0 points per game and to finish with a 10.4-5.6 record (an average of 50,000 simulations). Philadelphia is 77.8% likely to make the playoffs and 5.6% likely to win the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> With Sanchez as the starter, the Eagles are projected to score 28.6 points per game and to finish with a 10.2-5.8 record. Philadelphia is 76.3% likely to make the playoffs and 4.7% likely to win the Super Bowl.<br /> <br /> This tells us two things. Chip Kelly’s offense is quarterback friendly and there is not much of a difference between Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez as a starting quarterback in this system.<br /> <br /> The main takeaway for Eagles fans is that Philadelphia should not have to rush Foles back as Sanchez should prove adequate as a starter.<br /> <br /> <strong>How quarterback friendly is Chip Kelly’s offense?</strong><br /> <br /> “<a href=”http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000422228/article/eagles-jason-peters-didnt-know-sanchez-was-in-at-qb”>I didn’t even know Foles was out</a>, saw the bomb to Maclin, and I turned to congratulate him and it was Sanchez,“ Jason Peters told the Philadelphia Inquirer.<br /> <br /> Peters is the starting left tackle for Philadelphia. Perhaps quarterbacks are so interchangeable in Kelly’s offense that one wouldn’t notice a change.<br /> <br /> Can any backup quarterback have success in this system?<br /> <br /> Last week Brandon Weeden completed less than 55% of his passes and threw two interceptions in Dallas’ loss to Arizona. However, with Weeden as a starter in Kelly’s offense, the Eagles would finish with a 10.0-6.0 record and have a 3.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Philadelphia would be twice as likely to lift the Lombardi Trophy with Weeden as the starter the rest of the way than the Cowboys would be with Weeden under center in the remaining games.<br /> <br /> Even with average talent at quarterback, Chip Kelly has one of the NFL’s best offensive systems.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Quarterback</th> <th> Proj. Record</th> <th> Playoff Odds</th> <th> Super Bowl Odds</th> <th> Avg. Points/Game</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Foles</td> <td> 10.4-5.6</td> <td> 77.8%</td> <td> 5.6%</td> <td> 29.0</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Sanchez</td> <td> 10.2-5.8</td> <td> 76.3%</td> <td> 4.7%</td> <td> 28.6</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Weeden</td> <td> 10.0-6.0</td> <td> 70.7%</td> <td> 3.2%</td> <td> 27.5</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/Chip-Kellys-offense-Sanchez-Foles-Weeden Tue, 4 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<em>NFL Week 10 betting trends utilizing the </em><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”><em>Trend Machine</em></a><em>.</em><br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Peyton-Manning-Raiders.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a> for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.<br /> <br /> Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational �“ how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.<br /> <br /> Interested in additional trends? Check out the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Sports-Trend-Machine”>Trend Machine</a>!<br /> <br /> <strong>Week 10 �“ Situational Trends</strong><br /> <br /> Since 2004, all teams that lost by 21 or more points and are then favored by double digits are 12-8 (60% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Broncos (-11.5) @ Raiders.</li> </ul> <br /> The fallacy of betting the home underdog: from 1978 to 2003, home dogs were 993-828-55 (55% ATS). From 2004 through 2014, home dogs are 431-451-23 (49% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Bills (+1.5) vs. Chiefs, Jets (+4.5) vs. Steelers and Raiders (+11.5) vs. Broncos.</li> </ul> <br /> Since 2004, home dogs in the month November are 76-124-11 (38% ATS).<br /> <br /> <ul> <li> Games Matching this Criteria: Bills (+1.5) vs. Chiefs, Jets (+4.5) vs. Steelers and Raiders (+11.5) vs. Broncos.</li> </ul> <br /> <strong>NFL Trends �“ Week 10</strong><br /> Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Spread</th> <th> Trend</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> ATL</td> <td class=”rank”> -1 @ TB</td> <td> All-time, teams that lost by 3 or fewer points and are coming off a bye are 52-37-1 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> AZ</td> <td class=”rank”> -7 vs. STL</td> <td> All-time, the Cardinals as favorites of 7 or more points are 8-18-1 (31% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BAL</td> <td class=”rank”> -9.5 vs TEN</td> <td> Since 2008, the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens as favorites of 7 or more points are 26-3 (90%) straight-up.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> BUF</td> <td> +1.5 vs. KC</td> <td> Since 2012, home dogs of less than a field goal are 67-52-6 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CAR</td> <td> +6 @ PHI</td> <td> Since 2011, the Cam Newton era, the Panthers on any day besides Sunday are 4-2 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CHI</td> <td> +7 @ GB</td> <td> Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears against the Packers are 2-10 (17%) straight-up and 3-9 (25% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CIN</td> <td> -6 vs. CLE</td> <td> Since 2009, against the Browns, the Bengals have been favored in 8 of the last 10 games and are 1-6-1 (14% ATS) as favorites.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> CLE</td> <td> +6 @ CIN</td> <td> Since 2009, in the last ten meetings between the Bengals/Browns, the over is 7-3 (70% over) but the total has never been set as high as 45 points.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DAL</td> <td> -6 vs. JAX</td> <td> Since 2006, when Tony Romo has missed a start, the Cowboys as favorites are 2-4 (33% ATS) and 6-8 (43% ATS) in all games.</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DEN</td> <td> -11.5 @ OAK</td> <td> In Peyton Manning’s career, as a double digit favorite he is 41-5 (89%) straight-up and 25-21 (54% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> DET</td> <td> -3 vs. MIA</td> <td> Since 2004, teams coming off a bye and as home favorites are 64-51-3 (56% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> GB</td> <td> -7 vs. CHI</td> <td> Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers following a bye are 6-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> JAX</td> <td> +6 vs. DAL</td> <td> All-time, teams that start the season with a 1-8 record and are underdogs are 28-18-1 (61% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> KC</td> <td> -1.5 @ BUF</td> <td> All-time, teams that have covered the spread six straight weeks are 38-48-2 (44% ATS) in their next game.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> MIA</td> <td> +3 @ DET</td> <td> All-time, teams that won by 5 or more touchdowns and are underdogs the next week are 18-28-2 (39% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NO</td> <td> -4.5 vs. SF</td> <td> Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, the Saints at home against teams from the NFC West are 7-2-1 (78% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYG</td> <td> +9 @ SEA</td> <td> Since 2005, the Eli Manning era, the Giants as dogs of 7 or more points are 11-3 (79% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> NYJ</td> <td> +5 vs. PIT</td> <td> Since 2001, when Michael Vick entered the league, teams with one win in Week 10 or later are 56-40-2 (58% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> OAK</td> <td> +11.5 vs. DEN</td> <td> All-time, winless teams that are dogs of 10 or more points are 141-99-9 (59% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PHI</td> <td> -6 vs. CAR</td> <td> The last time Mark Sanchez was a favorite of 6 or more points was 2011 (Jets -9 @ Chiefs). Sanchez is 6-4 (60% ATS) in last ten games as favorite of 6 or more points.</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> PIT</td> <td> -5 @ NYJ</td> <td> Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, after winning by two or more touchdowns the Steelers are 19-24 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SEA</td> <td> -9 vs. NYG</td> <td> All-time, teams that have failed to cover against-the-spread 4 weeks in a row and are favorites of 7 or more points are 27-17 (61% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> SF</td> <td> +4.5 @ NO</td> <td> Since 2012, the Colin Kaepernick era, the 49ers on the road are 12-6-2 (67% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> STL</td> <td> +7 @ AZ</td> <td> Since 2010, following a win the Rams are 10-6-1 (63% ATS), in all other situations STL is 24-30-1 (44% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TB</td> <td> +1 vs. ATL</td> <td> Since 2004, teams whose opponent is coming off a bye are 149-178-6 (46% ATS).</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> TEN</td> <td> +9.5 @ BAL</td> <td> All-time, teams coming off a bye and as an underdog of 7 points or more are 68-48-4 (59% ATS).</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/2014-NFL-Trends-Week-10 Tue, 4 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[How would bad teams fare with elite quarterbacks under center?<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Peyton-Manning-Jets.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Note: We were asked by CBS and <em>That Other Pregame Show </em>to run these simulations. CBS then used these projections during their NFL boardcast and on <a href=”https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/528946016952008705″>social media</a>. <br /> <br /> All teams in the NFL are technically still alive for a playoff spot. While no team has been eliminated from the postseason yet, teams like the New York Jets, Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are all raging dumpster fires.<br /> <br /> Even Chicago, a team that started the season 2-1 with playoff aspirations, has dropped four of their past five outings. The Bears entered the season with a supposedly high-powered offense but quarterback Jay Cutler has 12 turnovers in eight games.<br /> <br /> The NFL is a quarterback driven league. As such, it is no surprise that the Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers and Bears have a collective record of 5-28 with a combination of Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Mike Glennon, Josh McCown, Derek Carr and Jay Cutler starting under center.<br /> <br /> Ineffective quarterback play has limited all four of these teams.<br /> <br /> How would the Jets, Raiders, Buccaneers and Bears fare with some elite quarterbacks under center?<br /> <br /> To find out we simulated each team’s season 50,000 times with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback.<br /> <br /> For perspective on the projected records below, here is our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/2014-NFL-super-bowl-odds-picks-preview”>in-depth analysis</a> before the season started with projected records for all teams. After 50,000 simulations before the season started the Patriots were projected to finish 10-6 and the Colts were projected to finish 9-7. Those win totals might not seem impressive, but both records were good enough to win the team’s division.<br /> <br /> As one might imagine, in every simulation adding an elite quarterback dramatically improved a team’s record. In nearly every simulation the addition of one of the league’s best quarterbacks put the team in playoff contention.<br /> <br /> Peyton Manning, the quarterback with the <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/offensive-skill-position-power-rankings-2014″>highest impact score</a>, is the best fit for all four teams. With better quarterbacks the Jets and Bears could be playoff teams, however, even with elite signal callers the Raiders and Buccaneers are still not talented enough to reach the postseason.<br /> <br /> Below are the records for each team with Manning, Brady, Luck and Roethlisberger starting the full season.<br /> <br /> <table class=”standard sortable”> <tbody> <tr class=”header”> <th> Team</th> <th> Record</th> <th> Proj. Record</th> <th> With Manning</th> <th> With Brady</th> <th> With Luck</th> <th> With Roethlisberger</th> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Jets</td> <td> 1-8</td> <td> 4-12</td> <td> 10-6</td> <td> 9-7</td> <td> 9-7</td> <td> 9-7</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Raiders</td> <td> 0-8</td> <td> 2-14</td> <td> 8-8</td> <td> 7-9</td> <td> 7-9</td> <td> 7-9</td> </tr> <tr height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Buccaneers</td> <td> 1-7</td> <td> 4-12</td> <td> 8-8</td> <td> 7-9</td> <td> 8-8</td> <td> 8-8</td> </tr> <tr class=”alt” height=”15″> <td height=”15″ style=”height:19px;”> Bears</td> <td> 3-5</td> <td> 7-9</td> <td> 10-6</td> <td> 8-8</td> <td> 9-7</td> <td> 9-7</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <br /> <strong>Ben Roethlisberger</strong><br /> <br /> Speaking of one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger is having one of his best seasons on the field and in fantasy football in his career. Roethlisberger became the first quarterback to throw 12 touchdowns total in consecutive games. Big Ben set the record for the most fantasy points (79 points, per ESPN fantasy) by a quarterback in back-to-back games since 1960.<br /> <br /> What kind of production can we expect from Roethlisberger the rest of the season? After two monster games, what is his highest projected fantasy total in one game going forward?<br /> <br /> Using our <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/NFL-Fantasy-Football-2014-Projections-Rest-of-Season-11042014″>Rest of Season fantasy projections</a>, Roethlisberger is projected to throw for 2,007.6 yards, 17.9 touchdowns and 5.2 interceptions. This output would rank him sixth among fantasy quarterbacks with Andrew Luck having the best rest of the season. Roethlisberger’s full season is projected to be 4,726.6 passing yards, 39.9 touchdowns and 8.2 interceptions.<br /> <br /> Roethlisberger is unlikely to throw six touchdowns again this season. However, he does average between two and three passing touchdowns over the Steelers last seven games.<br /> <br /> Roethlisberger’s best remaining fantasy game comes Week 13 against the Saints. Big Ben is projected to throw for 323 yards and three touchdowns.<br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/elite-quarterbacks-on-bad-teams Tue, 4 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[<img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Arizona-Cardinals-Dallas-Cowboys.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> To highlight the Live ScoreCaster, we will take our in-game technology, <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live-Scorecaster-Game-Analysis-Football-Basketball-Baseball”>Live ScoreCaster</a>, to the next level to review the game-changing plays from the NFL and what the game would have looked like if the plays had turned out differently.<br /> <br /> Click the header for each game to view the Game Breakdown for each matchup.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11456″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Cardinals vs. Cowboys</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Dallas Cowboys, without Tony Romo, dropped their second game in a row (both at home) following a six game winning streak. Arizona rallied from an early 10-0 deficit to win 28-17.<br /> <br /> The Cardinals’ defense shined limiting DeMarco Murray to 79 yards on the ground ending the NFL rushing leader’s record of eight straight 100-yard games. The biggest play of the game was a fourth down stop by Arizona. The Cardinals run defense stuffed Murray on 4th and 1 at the Arizona 34-yard line with less than ten minutes to play. The turnover on downs increased Arizona’s expected win probability from <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11456″>76 percent to 91 percent</a>.<br /> <br /> Had Murray picked up the first down, Dallas trailing 14-10, the Cowboys odds of winning would have increased from 9 percent to 46 percent.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11456″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11464″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Seahawks vs. Raiders</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Seattle led 24-3 at halftime; the Seahawks were 98 percent likely to win. Despite the dominating first half, Seattle had to survive an Oakland rally to win 30-24.<br /> <br /> Oakland attempted an onside kick with less than two minutes remaining trailing by less than a touchdown. Seattle misplayed the ball but the Raiders failed to recover the kick.<br /> <br /> Had Oakland recovered the onside kick, the Raiders would have only been 10 percent likely to avoid the team’s 14th straight loss.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11464″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11462″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>49ers vs. Rams</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> St. Louis upset San Francisco as 10 point underdogs. The Rams forced Colin Kaepernick to fumble on a quarterback sneak at the goal line on the second to last play of the game. Before the fumble the 49ers were 87 percent likely to win the game. Had Kaepernick merely been stopped short of the touchdown instead of fumbling, the game was almost certainly heading to overtime as the 49ers needed a short field goal to tie the game.<br /> <br /> San Francisco got the ball on the 2-yard line after consecutive penalties for pass interference and defensive holding gave the 49ers an extra 28 yards of field position.<br /> <br /> St. Louis was a long shot to complete the goal line stand. With less than a minute remaining the Rams were only 5 percent likely to win.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11462″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11460″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Browns vs. Buccaneers</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> The Browns beat the Buccaneers 22-17 Sunday afternoon. Cleveland is 5-3 at the midpoint in the season, the team’s best record through eight games since 2007.<br /> <br /> Cleveland’s special teams set up the game winning drive. Late in the fourth the Browns blocked a Tampa Bay punt attempt on the Buccaneers’ 34-yard line. Cleveland’s expected win probability <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11460″>increased by 24 percent</a>.<br /> <br /> Two plays later Brian Hoyer found Taylor Gabriel for a 34-yard go-ahead score. Cleveland became 90 percent likely to win leading 22-17.<br /> <br /> Johnny Manziel <a href=”https://vine.co/v/OOwzJMdFO7Z”>enjoyed the game</a>.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11460″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11457″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Vikings vs. Redskins</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Minnesota trailed three different times during the game but was able to rally to defeat Washington 29-26.<br /> <br /> The Vikings defense harassed Robert Griffin III in his return to action after missing seven games with an ankle injury. Minnesota sacked Griffin five times. The cumulative effect of the sacks (putting Washington in unmanageable down and distances or ending the drives altogether) increased the Vikings’ expected win probability by nearly 30 percent over the course of the game.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11457″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong><a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11463″><span style=”color:#b22222;”>Patriots vs. Broncos</span></a></strong></span></h2> <br /> Tom Brady won the 16th chapter of the rivalry against Peyton Manning. The Patriots won 43-21 and New England now has the best record in the AFC.<br /> <br /> Denver led 7-3 after the first quarter and was 58 percent likely to win. New England scored the next 24 points and were 91 percent likely to win at halftime.<br /> <br /> For additional GameChanging notes from this game <a href=”http://www.predictionmachine.com/Live/IndividualGame.aspx?lgid=11463″>click here</a>.<br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> ]]> NFL Topics http://www.PredictionMachine.com/gameChangers-NFL-Week9-2014 Sun, 2 Nov 2014 00:00:00 -0700

PM Blog

<![CDATA[Line movements for the NFL including prop bets for the Broncos, Jaguars and Jets. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.<br /> <br /> <img alt=”” src=”http://www.PredictionMachine.com/images/CPNews/Peyton-Manning-Denver-Broncos.jpg” style=”width: 760px; height: 328px;” /><br /> <br /> Happy Halloween everybody! Don’t get spooked but here are some <a href=”http://kissingsuzykolber.uproxx.com/2014/10/halloween-nfl-logos.html”>Halloween themed NFL Logos</a>.<br /> <br /> Now let’s talk some line movements to see how the current lines got where they are today.<br /> <br /> Plus fun prop bets for the NFL including the Broncos, Jaguars and Jets.<br /> <br /> <h2> <span style=”color:#b22222;”><span style=”font-size:16px;”><strong>Broncos vs. Patriots</strong></span></span></h2> <br /> The New England Patriots have won 13 straight games at home. Tom Brady is 10-6 in his career against Peyton Manning but the Broncos won the most recent matchup 26-16 in last year’s AFC Championship game.<br /> <br /> Manning opened as a 4 point favorite against Brady but Denver has settled as a field goal favorite in Foxboro. If Denver remains the betting favorite this will mark just the tenth time in Tom Brady’s career that the Patriots have been home underdogs.<br /> <br /> <strong>Who will record more Passing Yards Week 9? </strong> <ul> <li> Peyton Manning (