Posts by Michael Freas

DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 16 Plays

Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. Week 16 is upon us, so it's time to cash in before the year is over. Hopefully you read some of my plays last week and were able to create some winning cash game lineups. Here are this week's plays.

Quarterback Plays

Carson Palmer ($7,000) vs.

Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. Week 16 is upon us, so it’s time to cash in before the year is over. Hopefully you read some of my plays last week and were able to create some winning cash game lineups. Here are this week’s plays.

Quarterback Plays

Carson Palmer ($7,000) vs. Green Bay Packers: Coming off a down game by Palmer standards, Palmer and the Cardinals passing game should be more involved this week versus a more competitive Packers team. Palmer has been extremely consistent this year and represents a high floor as he showed last week securing 2x value.

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,800) @Baltimore Ravens: Coming off a 27.90 point performance last week, Big Ben gets the atrocious Baltimore Ravens’ pass defense this week. The Ravens are giving up over 20 points per game to opposing quarterbacks and 2 passing touchdowns.

Blake Bortles ($6,500) @ New Orleans Saints: Bortles gets another great spot this week facing a New Orleans Saints’ defense that is giving up the most points against opposing quarterbacks (24.39 ppg). The Saints’ defense is giving up on average 289 passing yards and over 2.79 touchdowns per game. Bortles has been a beast all year and has been extremely consistent over the past 4 weeks (25.28, 27.70, 35.78, and 26.46 points).

Running Back Plays

DeAngelo Wlliams ($6,500) @ Baltimore Ravens: Williams has been one of the most consistent running backs since taking over after LeVeon Bell’s injury. With few running backs left to trust, Williams represents a great contrarian play for tournaments as well, as most people will be all over the passing game weapons.

David Johnson ($5,800) vs. Green Bay Packers: Since taking over lead back duties, Johnson has been on an absolute tear. He was the top player last week running for 189 yards, 3 touchdowns and securing 47.90 points. In a high scoring game, expect another heavy dose.

Danny Woodhead ($4,400) @ Oakland Raiders: Woodhead should see an uptick in volume now that starting running back Melvin Gordon is out for the year with a knee injury. Don Brown will take over Gordon’s share but Woodhead should still see and uptick in volume and will be a chalk play this week. He is coming off of a 36 point performance versus the Dolphins who are giving up 24.38 points per game to opposing running backs.

Tim Hightower ($4,500) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: He has been getting over 16 carries a game since taking over for Ingram. Brees is banged up with planters fasciitis, I expect the Saints to lean on Hightower and the running game a little more this week and try to slow down this Jags’ D.

Karlos Williams ($4,500) vs. Dallas Cowboys: With LeSean McCoy out the rest of the year, Karlos Williams should get first crack to take over lead back duties. Williams is coming back from injury but has been effective in games throughout the season.

Wide Receiver Plays

Antonio Brown ($9,300) @ Baltimore Ravens: Brown displayed last week why he is the best receiver in the NFL, torching the elite Denver secondary for 49.9 points. He is the best cash game receiver due to his high floor and involvement in the offense. He is in the top offense this week facing a Ravens’ defense that is giving up the 3rd most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers.

Jarvis Landry ($6,400) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Target hog and facing Greg Toler and a helpless Colts’ secondary. Miller has a banged up quad and is questionable to play, which should the Dolphins should lean on the passing game more. Which in turn means more looks for Landry.

Golden Tate ($5,800) @ San Francisco 49ers: Tate has been one of the most consistent options over the past 5 weeks averaging over 19.7 points per game. This trend should continue this week versus a horrendous 49ers secondary.

Martavis Bryant ($5,600) @ Baltimore Ravens: See Antonio Brown

Desean Jackson ($5,000) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Coming off of a 30 point game, DJax gets to face his former team for the first time this season after he missed the teams first meeting earlier in the year. Philly is giving up the most points to opposing receivers and their two starting corners in Byron Maxwell and Eric Rowe might be out.

Michael Floyd ($4,900) vs. Green Bay Packers: High scoring game which should be more competitive than last weeks game. Sam Shields is most likely going to be out which should make it easier for Brown and Floyd on the outside.

Tournament Options

Stevie Johnson ($4,500) @ Oakland Raiders

Tight End Plays

Zach Ertz ($3,100) vs. Washington Redskins: Had 15 catches last year versus the Skins and has been more involved over the last few weeks, consistently reaching 3x value. Fire him up again this week.

Defenses

Kansas City Chiefs ($4,200) vs. Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,100) @ Baltimore Ravens

Best of luck this week and Merry Christmas!

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: Week 15 DraftKings Plays

Welcome back everyone for yet another week of NFP's DFS Corner. Hopefully everyone was able to cash in on last week's plays and win some extra dough before the holiday season. This week's slate presents a lot of great value at the running back position with a lot of recent injuries. The wide receiver position

Welcome back everyone for yet another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. Hopefully everyone was able to cash in on last week’s plays and win some extra dough before the holiday season. This week’s slate presents a lot of great value at the running back position with a lot of recent injuries. The wide receiver position is a little more uncertain with OBJ drawing potential DPOY candidate Josh Norman and Antonio Brown facing two elite corners in Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. But, nonetheless, I am here to present some great plays again this weekend, so let’s get into it.

For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here

Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here

Here are Vegas’s week 15 Spreads and Game Totals

Home Away Spread Total Game Date Game Time
St. Louis Rams Tampa Bay Bucaneers STL -1 41 Thurs. Dec 17 8:25pm
Dallas Cowboys New York Jets NYJ -3 42 Sat. Dec 19 8:25pm
Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears MIN -5.5 43 Sun. Dec 20 1:oopm
Jacksonville Jaguars Atlanta Falcons JAC -3 49 Sun. Dec 20 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts Houston Texans  TBA   TBA
New York Giants Carolina Panthers CAR -5 48 Sun. Dec 20 1:00pm
New England Patriots Tennessee Titans NE -14 47 Sun. Dec 20 1:00pm
Washington Redskins Buffalo Bills BUF -1 44 Sun. Dec 20 1:00pm
Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs KC -7.5 41.5 Sun. Dec 20 1:00pm
Seattle Seahawks Cleveland Browns SEA -14.5 43 Sun. Dec 20 4:05pm
Oakland Raiders Green Bay Packers GB -3 46.5 Sun. Dec 20 4:05pm
Pittsburgh Steelers Denver Broncos PIT -6 44.5 Sun. Dec 20 4:25pm
San Diego Chargers Miami Dolphins SD -1.5 45 Sun. Dec 20 4:25pm
San Francisco 49ers Cincinnati Bengals CIN -4.5 40.5 Sun. Dec 20 4:25pm
Philadelphia Eagles Arizona Cardinals ARI -3.5 50.5 Sun. Dec 20 8:30pm
New Orleans Saints Detroit Lions NO -3 51 Mon. Dec 21 8:30pm

Quarterback Plays

High Priced Tier Options

Cam Newton ($7,800) @ New York Giants: I don’t need to spend much time here, Newton is an MVP candidate who has been playing at an extremely high level all year. The Panthers just destroyed the Falcons last week and Newton was good for 3 touchdowns and 23 points. He faces a Giants’ defense that is allowing the 5th most points to opposing QBs (21.10 pts), for an average of 315 passing yards and 1.77 passing touchdowns per game.

Carson Palmer ($7,000) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Palmer is coming off extra rest after playing on Thursday Night last week. Palmer has been one of the most consistent QB options throughout the year and has a very favorable matchup at Philly this week. The Eagles are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs (22.39 pts), for an average of 272 passing yards and 2.23 passing touchdowns per game.

Russell Wilson ($7,000) vs. Cleveland Browns: Wilson has been the best fantasy player the past 4 weeks, throwing for 16 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. They just lost starting running back Thomas Rawls for the year and are planning on starting Bryce Brown who they just picked up again this week. I think it is safe to say, the offense will yet again run through Wilson. He gets another favorable matchup this week versus a Browns’ defense that has given up 10th most points to opposing QBs (20.09 pts), for an average of 262 passing yards, and 2 touchdowns per game.

Bargain Options

Matthew Stafford ($6,100) @ New Orleans: Saints give up the most points to opposing QBs (25.15 pts) for an average of 292 passing yards and 2.77 passing touchdowns per game. This offense has had a resurgence since Martha Ford (my vote for Executive of the Year) has taken the reigns of her precious Lions. The Lions have no running game so this should be very pass heavy.

Tyrod “TyGod” Taylor ($5,600) @ Washington Redskins: Been playing very consistent football over the last few weeks and has the ability to put up points with his arms and legs. He has reached 3-4x value in his last 3 games and should easily reach it once again against a banged up Skins’ secondary.

Running Back Plays

High Priced Options:

Adrian Peterson ($7,100) vs. Chicago Bears: Positive game script as they are 5 point favorite in this game. Had over 100 yards when he faced them earlier in the year and this offense runs through him. Should have over 100 yards and at least a touchdown and could also be a great tournament play after a subpar week last week.

Bargain Options

David Johnson ($5,700) @ Philadelphia Eagles: David Johnson is the bell cow for one of the most explosive offenses in the league and that trend should continue this week against the Eagles. The Eagles defense is giving up the 12th most points to opposing running backs (24.74 pts), for an average of 109 rushing yards, 5.23 receptions and 45.15 receiving yards per game.

Denard Robinson ($4,600) vs. Atlanta Falcons: Robinson took over for TJ Yeldon last week and performed admirably. Yeldon should be held out with a Knee sprain this week making Robinson the defacto running back as Toby Gerhart was placed on IR a few weeks ago. He faces an Atlanta defense that has completely fallen apart the 2nd of the season as they are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs (30 pts), for an average of 96.62 rushing yards, 1.15 rushing touchdowns, 6.92 receptions and 54.77 receiving yards per game.

Tim Hightower ($3,900) vs. Detroit Lions: So much for CJ Spiller splitting carriers with Hightower, as Hightower had 28 carries for 85 rushing yards and a touchdown last week versus Tampa Bay. Hightower will be highly owned given his price and the tremendous value he offers. Facing a Lions’ defense that is giving up 23.55 points per game to opposing running backs, Hightower should be locked into cash game lineups.

Brandon Bolden ($3,200) vs. Tennessee Titans: With the news that Legarrette Blount is out for the year, Brandon Bolden should be the recipient of his carries. He rushed 16 times last week for 51 yards when Blount left the game. Nothing is even known though with Bill Belichick, but given his low price it shouldn’t matter. Bolden’s volume should provide a high floor and allow him to reach value.

Tournament Options

Lamar Miller ($6,300) @ San Diego Chargers: Miller started off the game great last week before the ineptitude of the Dolphins’ coaching staff took over and he barely touched the ball in the second half. He gets the Chargers’ defense that is allowing over 27 points per game to opposing running backs for an average of 111.46 rushing yards per game.

Eddie Lacy ($5,200) @ Oakland Raiders: McCarthy has taken over playcalling duties, and it looks like he wants to get Lacy going. Two 20 point games in the past 3 weeks and facing a defense that is giving up roughly over 25 points a game to opposing running backs.

LeSean McCoy ($6,300) @ Washington Redskins: Everyone was on Shady last week in the “Revenge Game”, and he was a slight disappointment. I think recency bias will take effect, and I expect him to have low ownership this week.

Charcandrick West ($4,800) @ Baltimore Ravens: If Spencer Ware is out this weekend, we are getting West at a significant discount who will dominate the workload in an appealing matchup versus the Ravens. West will receive the lion’s share of the carries and if he performs like he did in the 3 game stretch earlier in the season, we are in great shape as he averaged roughly around 24 points a game.

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One of my Week 14 lineups

Wide Receiver Plays

Julio Jones ($8,500) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: This is lowest we have seen Julio’s price in quite some time but that is reality when you haven’t scored a touchdown since week 8. The Falcons are a mess right now but that’s more due to Matt Ryan’s poor play. The volume is still there to present a high floor as he is still receiving over 13 targets per game and this is a very appealing matchup so the upside is there.

DeAndre Hopkins ($8,500) @ Indianapolis Colts: Hopkins has cooled off over the past few weeks after facing some stiff competition. This week he gets to face a below average Colts’ defense and should expect much shadowing from Vontae Davis, who isn’t playing at the same elite level as he has in the past. Yates looks slated to start and I expect him to lean on Hopkins for much of the game. Hopkins has a lot of upside at a reduced rate but he does come with some risk.

Bargain Options

Jeremy Maclin ($5,500) @ Baltimore Ravens: Maclin is averaging over 10 targets a game the past 3 weeks and has safely reached 2x value in all 3 games while exceeding 5x value twice. This week, he faces a Ravens’ defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing WRs with over 42.99 points per game.

Doug Baldwin ($5,800) vs. Cleveland Browns: Hottest receiver in football over the past 4 weeks playing with the hottest quarterback in football facing a below average defense, pretty simple. His price is on the rise which is a slight concern given he doesn’t receive double digit targets, but it’s hard to find a reason to fade him.

Golden Tate ($5,500) @ New Orleans Saints: As we explained before the Saints’ defense is atrocious and Tate has been extremely consistent and productive the last few weeks. He has over 32 catches and 3 touchdowns over the past 4 weeks and has a favorable matchup vs XYZ.

Michael Floyd ($4,400) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Any of the Cardinals WRs have value in this game but Floyd is the one I will be targeting as he has been extremely consistent and more involved over the past few weeks. He’s received over 8 targets a game over the past 5 games and should be matched up against Byron Maxwell and Eric Rowe for much of the night.

Tournament Options

Randall Cobb ($6,300) @ Oakland Raiders: Cobb has to be happy that McCarthy has retaken over the play call duties as he saw his name called a lot more often last week hauling in 8 catches off of 12 targets and 3 carries.

Tight Ends

Jordan Reed ($5,900) vs. Buffalo Bills: The Bills have been pretty solid versus tight ends this year but Reed isn’t a tradition tight end. He is coming off a 30 point performance against the Bears who were also suppose to keep him in check. Reed’s unique role in this offense provide a high floor with a lot of upside without having to pay up into Gronk and Olsen territory.

Zach Miller ($3,600) @ Minnesota Vikings: Miller is the starting tight end for the remainder of the year and should continue to receive a high share of targets. Miller scored over 19 points last week hauling in 6 catches, 85 yards and 1 touchdown. At a near minimum he should easily reach 2x value and has a great shot to reach 3-4x value.

Tournament Options

Antonio Gates ($4,600) vs. Miami Dolphins: Who does Philip Rivers have left to throw to? Gates is averaging 7 targets a game over the past 3 weeks and 6 receptions over the past 2. He is coming at a minimum price and should be in line to easily exceed 3x value. People might be scared away with Ladarius Green returning which should result in low ownership.

Defenses to Target

Seattle Seahawks ($4,200) vs. Cleveland Browns

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,700) @ Baltimore Ravens

Houston Texans ($2,500) @ Indianapolis Colts

Best of luck everyone, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to leave a comment below or shoot me a message on Twitter @mikefreas1706. Let’s make some cash before the holiday!

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 14 Plays

Welcome back to another week of NFP's DFS Corner. Best of luck to all those participating in their season long fantasy playoffs this weekend. I hope everyone cashed in last week using my recommendations, other than TY Hilton and Alshon Jeffrey, who failed to live up to value in great matchups. Last week was an extremely

Welcome back to another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. Best of luck to all those participating in their season long fantasy playoffs this weekend. I hope everyone cashed in last week using my recommendations, other than TY Hilton and Alshon Jeffrey, who failed to live up to value in great matchups. Last week was an extremely high scoring week where 190 plus points couldn’t even guarantee you a victory in cash games. I think we should see less high scores among the chalk plays and things get back to normal this week.

For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here

Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here

Here are Vegas’s week 14 Spreads and Game Totals

Home Away Spread Total Game Date Game Time
Arizona Cardinals Minnesota Vikings ARZ -7.5 45.5 Thurs. Dec 10th 8:25pm
Philadelphia Eagles Buffalo Bills BUF -1 47 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Cleveland Browns San Francisco 49ers CLE -1 41 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
St. Louis Rams Detroit Lions STL -1 41 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Tampa Bay Bucaneers New Orleans Saints TB -3.5 50.5 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
New York Jets Tennessee Titans NYJ -7 43 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Cincinnati Bengals Pittsburgh Steelers CIN -3 49 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Houston Texans New England Patriots NE -3 45 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Kansas City Chiefs San Diego Chargers KC -10 45.5 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Chicago Bears Washington Redskins CHI -3 44 Sun. Dec 13th 1:00pm
Carolina Panthers Atlanta Falcons CAR -7.5 46.5 Sun. Dec 13th 1:oopm
Denver Broncos Oakland Raiders DEN -7.5 43.5 Sun. Dec 13th 4:05pm
Green Bay Packers Dallas Cowboys GB -7 43.5 Sun. Dec 13th 4:25pm
Baltimore Ravens Seattle Seahawks Sun. Dec 13th 8:30pm
Miami Dolphins New York Giants NYG -1 47 Mon. Dec 14th 8:30pm

Quarterback Plays

Russell Wilson ($6,300) @ Baltimore Ravens: Wilson and the Seahawks have been on an absolute tear as of late. Wilson outperformed expectations last week versus a very solid Vikings’ defense. Wilson finished the day with 274 passing yards and 3 touchdowns, which was good for 34.06 fantasy points. Over the last 3 games, he has DK scores of 34.06, 38.20, and 25.40. The Ravens are giving up the 10th most points to opposing QB’s (19.77 pts/per game), so Wilson presents a high floor. He will likely be one of the chalk plays of the week, and the only thing to be cautious of is the weather, as there is an 82% chance of rain as of now.

Blake Bortles ($6,000) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Bortles is coming off of a 5 touchdown, 322 passing yard explosion versus the Titans last week. His past 2 DK performances have scores of 35.78 and 26.46. This week, he gets to face a Colts’ defense that was just picked apart by Pittsburgh the other night. Furthermore, the Colts are giving up the 8th most points to opposing QBs (20.46 pts/per game). I expect another big game from Bortles this week in what could be another close and high scoring game.

Tyrod Taylor ($5,400) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Tyrod Taylor is coming off back to back 3 touchdown, 0 interception games where he achieved scores of 29.24 and 27.24. This week, he gets to face an Eagles’ defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs (22.67 pts/per game). Most people will be on Shady for the “revenge” game, so Taylor makes a nice pivot from that and presents a high enough floor and high upside to be used in all formats.

My best performing lineup from last week

My best performing lineup from last week

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) vs. Tennessee Titans: We recommended Fitzy last week and we’re going back at it him again this week. Fitzmagic has upped his play over the past few weeks yet has seen only a marginal increase in salary. He has been extremely consistent on DraftKings, earning no less than 3x value over that past 5 weeks with scores of  28.80, 29.18 , 17.84, 16.72 and 18.88. This week, he gets to face a Titans’ defense that just gave up 5 touchdown passes to Bortles and the Jags. Fitzy is a great selection in all formats.

Jameis Winston ($5,500) vs. New Orleans Saints: Jameis is the lucky winner this week facing off against the pitiful New Orleans Saints’ defense that is allowing the most points to opposing QBs (26.11 pts/per game). Jameis is getting pumped up by all outlets, he has a great matchup, and has shown the potential to put up a huge game like he did versus Philadelphia a few weeks ago. Jameis should be able to easily hit 3x value in this one, but I think I will be pivoting away as I could also see the threat of him not throwing more than 30-35 passes and them relying on Doug Martin and the ground game. I don’t want to steer you in the wrong direction, but for me, personally, I think there are safer QBs with higher upside in his price range.

Running Back Plays

LeSean McCoy ($6,100) @ Philadelphia Eagles: Ahh the revenge game versus his former team. You can bet Rex will make him a Captain for this game. McCoy will be very motivated to play against his former team and coach that shipped him away. But even taking revenge out of the equation, McCoy has been consistently getting roughly 20 plus carries the past few weeks and has gone over 100 combined yards the past 6 games. Philly has been solid versus the run for most of the season but has been allowing some of the most points to position the past 3 weeks, and I expect Rex Ryan to get McCoy highly involved.  He will be highly owned this week because of it and wouldn’t be a bad player to fade in tournaments because of it.

DeAngelo Williams ($6,000) @ Cincinnati Bengals: The 2nd highest total this week at 49.5 points, Vegas is predicting a lot of scoring this weekend. While I assume most will be all over the passing game, Williams provides a nice pivot for tournaments but still brings a very solid floor to cash games due to his involvement in the passing game. He has scored 23.50 and 24.70 points respectfully the past two weeks and although the matchup isn’t ideal, the 6.5 targets he has been averaging should allow him to hit floor.

David Johnson ($4,300) vs. Minnesota Vikings: David Johnson represents the best value play on the Thursday night slate, he will likely be highly owned again but that isn’t a problem in cash games. Bruce Arians has already come out and said he would like to get David Johnson roughly 25 touches this week, which bodes well with the game script given that Arizona is 7.5 point favorites.

Lamar Miller ($5,700) vs. New York Giants: The first week without Bill Lazor calling plays, the Dolphins stuck to their word and established the ground game with Miller receiving 20 carries for 113 rushing yards. This week, Miller gets a Giants defense that is giving up the 6th most points to opposing running backs (26.30 pts/per game). The Giants are allowing roughly over 97 rushing yards per game and 6 catches per game to opposing running backs, so Miller is in a great spot to exploit this matchup. The only concern here is what will be Miami’s game plan this week?

Thomas Rawls ($5,800) @ Baltimore Ravens: While Russell Wilson is one of the chalk plays for QB’s given Baltimore’s inability to stop the pass and the tear that Wilson has been on the past few weeks, Rawls presents great values in both formats. He is receiving the lion’s share of touches (70 carries past 3 weeks) and will be expected to carry another heavy workload this week in a game that the Seahawks should easily win. The gamescript and potential weather with rain are all positives for Rawls.

Shaun Draughn ($4,800) @ Cleveland Browns: While this wont be the sexy pick, it may be one of the smartest. Don’t be fooled to shy away from Draughn as he has an excellent matchup as the Browns are giving up the 7th most points to opposing running backs (25.93 pts/per game). The Browns are giving up roughly 126 yards per game and Draughn is garnering all of the carries out of the 49ers backfield. Furthermore, he presents a high floor given his involvement in the passing game as he has over 22 catches in the past 4 games.

Darren Sproles ($3,500) and Ryan Matthews ($3,400) vs. Buffalo Bills: Chip Kelly finally demoted Demarco Murray last week and gave Sproles more touches. While I don’t think he’ll lead the team in touches this week with Ryan Mathews returning, I do believe Sproles will still be very active throughout this game as he is simply too dynamic not to be on the field. At his minimum salary, he makes an excellent punt play with huge upside. Mathews is also a great tournament play this week as if he does play, there is a very good chance he receives the bulk of the carries. He has looked like the most explosive back for the Eagles this year.

Wide Receiver Plays

Antonio Brown ($8,900) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Antonio Brown is potentially the best PPR player when Big Ben is under center. He is a PPR machine and presents a high floor on a weekly basis. This week, he faces a very solid Bengals’ defense that may be without Adam Jones and Leon Hall. Regardless, Brown is a great play again this week in Vegas’s 2nd highest total.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($9,100) @ Miami Dolphins: OBJ has been one of the most consistent players over the past month and he should continue that this week versus an average Dolphins’ defense. Brent Grimes is a good CB, but he is not someone who can stick with OBJ over the course of the game. OBJ is the focal point of this Giants’ offense and that should continue again this week.

Brandon Marshall ($7,600) vs. Tennessee Titans: Marshall might be one of my favorite plays of the week. He has been extremely consistent this season either scoring a touchdown or collecting 100 yards receiving in every game this year. He is coming off of two huge games where he scored 34.10 and 37.10 points. This week, he faces off against a Titans’ secondary that just allowed 5 passing touchdowns and 3 to Allen “Baby Dez” Robinson who has a very similar frame and skillset to Marshall.

AJ Green ($7,900) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Projected high scoring game, very active in offense, great matchup, coming off a 26.80 and 24.10 point games over the past 2 weeks, what else do you need to know? While I like Green’s value more when Eifert isn’t in the lineup, Green is another great play this week as the Steelers give up the 3rd most points to opposing wide receivers (42.28 pts/per game). Green has played very well historically against the Steelers throughout his career.

Eric Decker ($6,400) vs. Tennessee Titans: All  of the reasons I mentioned above for B Marsh apply to Decker who finally saw a little bump in his salary. Decker has been one of the most consistent fantasy players all year, he’s a TD machine, and he is averaging 21 points per game. He provides a high floor with upside.

Jarvis Landry ($6,300) vs. New York Giants: Landry had a huge dud last week, but it was due to more to the fact that Miami didn’t run that many plays, and when they did, most of them were runs. I expect them to get back to a more balanced approach this week versus a porous Giants defense. While Parker and Stills will be covered by DRC and Prince Amukamara, Landry will have the benefit of facing struggling Nickel Corner Trevin Wade. The Giants are giving up  the 6th most points to opposing WR’s (40.14 pts/per game).  Landry is 6th in receptions this year, so I expect him to bounce back and provide another high floor in what could turn into a shootout.

Sammy Watkins ($6,100) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles give up the most points to opposing WRs (44.08 pts/per game), Byron Maxwell has been abused this year and rookie Eric Rowe is still untested. Watkins should be in store for a big game and makes a great stack with Taylor and a nice pivot from McCoy. He presents great upside, so he is a great tournament play, but his inconsistent targets could make him a riskier cash game play.

Martavis Bryant ($5,700) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Everything I mentioned about Antonio Brown applies to Bryant. He should be facing Dre Kirkpatrick, who has struggled this year and Bryant has PFF 7th best WR/CB matchup for the week. He is a great stack with Big Ben and can be played in both formats.

Allen Hurns ($5,500) vs Indianapolis Colts: Hurns sat out this past week but is cleared to play this week after clearing concussion protocol. Hurns should face off against one of PFF worst rated corner backs in Greg Toler. According to PFF WR/CB matchup tool, Hurns has the 3rd best matchup on the weekend. Furthermore, when these two teams met earlier in the year, Hurns exploded for 31.60 points catching 11 passes, 116 yards and 1 touchdown. He makes an excellent stack with Bortles and a good pivot away from Allen Robinson this week. Oh, and the Colts give up the 4th most points to opposing wide receivers (41.45 pts/per game).

Danny Amendola ($5,200) @ Houston Texans: The Texans have fared very well against opposing teams #1 WR’s, but I don’t think this applies to Amendola this week. This one is simple. The Patriots are without a lot of main options and Amendola is a target machine that is still being offered at a great price. In the two games he has started this year, he has scores of 20.64 and 23.70.

Doug Baldwin ($4,800) @ Baltimore Ravens: Baldwin leads the NFL in yards and touchdowns over the past 4 weeks and is still only $4,800 facing a Ravens defense that gives up the 5th most points to opposing WRs (40.20 pts/per game).

Tight End Options

Delanie Walker ($5,600) @ New York Jets: Matchup is not great, but Walker is one of the most consistent tight ends on a weekly basis and a favorite target of Marcus Mariota. He has gone over 90 yards in the past 3 games while averaging 10 targets a game over that stretch. Consistency at the tight end position is hard to come by, so if you are paying up for Tight End, Walker is your guy.

Scott Chandler ($3,800) @ Houston Texans:  Despite seeing a $1,300 increase in salary, Chandler remains a great value play as long as Gronk is out. He should see roughly 6-8 targets and be looked at in the red zone yet again. He has scored in 3 of the past 4 weeks and Brady will rely on him again in this one.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($2,700) vs New Orleans Saints:  The ultimate upside play for tight end this week, ASJ returned to action last week for the first time since Week 2. Despite only playing 19 snaps, ASJ still received 7 targets. Winston looks for him often and the Saints give up the most points to opposing tight ends (20.01 pts/per game).

Defenses to Target

Seattle Seahawks ($3,500) @ Baltimore Ravens

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,200) vs. San Diego

Best of luck again this weekend, if you have any questions feel free to leave a comment below or shoot me a message on Twitter @mikefreas1706

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

Read More 2452 Words

DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 13 Plays

Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. I hope you were able to cash in last week with some of my recommendations and took my play of the week in Adrian Peterson who went off to the sound of 35 points on DraftKings.

For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet

Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. I hope you were able to cash in last week with some of my recommendations and took my play of the week in Adrian Peterson who went off to the sound of 35 points on DraftKings.

For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here

Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here

Here are Vegas’s week 13 Spreads and Game Totals

Home Team Away Team Spread Total O/U Game Date Game Time
 Detroit Lions Green Bay Packers  GB -3 47 Thurs. Dec 3rd  8:25pm
 New York Giants  New York Jets  NYJ -2  45  Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
 St. Louis Rams Arizona Cardinals  ARI -5.5  43   Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Atlanta Falcons  TB -1.5  46   Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
 Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks  MIN -1  42   Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
 Buffalo Bills Houston Texans  BUF -3  41.5   Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
 Miami Dolphins Baltimore Ravens  MIA -4  43.5   Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
 Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals  CIN -9.5  43.5  Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
 Tennessee Titans Jacksonville Jaguars  TEN -2.5  43   Sun. Dec 6th  1:00pm
Chicago Bears San Francisco 49ers CHI -7 43  Sun. Dec 6th 1:00pm
San Diego Chargers Denver Broncos DEN -4 43.5  Sun. Dec 6th 4:05pm
Oakland Raiders Kansas City Chiefs KC -3 44  Sun. Dec 6th 4:05pm
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers CAR -7 49.5  Sun. Dec 6th 4:25pm
New England Patriots Philadelphia Eagles NE -9.5 49  Sun. Dec 6th 4:25pm
Pittsburgh Steelers Indianapolis Colts PIT -7 48.5  Sun. Dec 6th 8:30pm
Washington Redskins Dallas Cowboys WAS -4.5 42.5 Mon. Dec 7th 8:30pm

Quarterback Plays

Cash Game Staples

Cam Newton ($7,400) @ New Orleans Saints: Cam will most likely be the highest owned QB this week and for good reason. The Saints are allowing the most points to opposing QBs with an average of 25 points per game. They have given up 30 passing touchdowns on the year while giving up of over 298 passing yards per game. Cam will be a staple cash game QB of mine this week.

Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Not sure why Big Ben isn’t priced higher this week, as he has exceed 25 points in each of his last 3 contests including a great game vs a strong Seattle defense on  the road last week. This selection obviously depends on if Big Ben completes the NFL Concussion protocol, as he already been cleared to practice Wednesday.  If he does play, he gets a home matchup versus a very average Colts defense that has already given up 20 passing touchdowns on the year and over 282 passing yards per game. Vontae Davis hasn’t been playing to his standards and might be limited with a hamstring injury this week and opposite corner Greg Toler has a bottom 10 cornerback grade according to PFF. Also, let’s not forget the game vs. the Colts last year when Big Ben threw for 522 yards and 6 touchdowns…

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) @ New York Giants: Fitzpatrick delivered big last week with a 4 TD performance vs. Miami. He should be in store for another big week as he faces off against the New York Giants. The Giants’ defense is allowing the 5th most points to opposing QBs with over 20 points a game. The Giants, on average, are giving up over 315 passing yards per game (3 bonus points if you pass for over 3oo yards) and have allowed 20 passing touchdowns or 1.81 per game.

Other Cash Game/ Multiplier Options

Marcus Mariota ($5,500) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars are giving up the 4th most points to opposing QBs with an average of 20.99 points per game. They have given up 21 touchdowns through the air and are letting opposing QBs throw for over 281 yards per game. Marcus Mariota has achieved 2x value over 78% of the time and has exceed 3x value over 67% of the time.

Matt Hasselback ($5,300) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I don’t think I ever thought I would be writing this at any point this year but here we are. Hasselback is a very cheap option at $5.3k and he is facing a Steelers’ defense that is giving up the 6th most points to opposing QBs with over 20 points a game. The Steelers have given up 22 touchdowns through the air for an average of 2 passing touchdowns per game to go along with over 299 passing yards allowed per game.

Tournament Gambles

Carson Palmer ($6,700) @ St. Louis: Palmer was a bit of a disappointment last week and faces what most see as a very tough defense in St. Louis. Both of these factors will lead to low ownership for Palmer which is great for tournaments. Palmer has been one of the most consistent QBs all year reaching 2x value 100% of the time and achieving 3x value

Other Tournament Gambles: Ryan Tannehill ($5,300) vs. Baltimore Ravens, Jay Cutler ($5,100) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Running Back Plays

Cash Game Staples

The only high priced running back I will consider taking this week is Adrian Peterson ($6,700) vs. Seattle Seahawks. AP is on a 4 game touchdown steak and is coming fresh off a 35 point game. While the matchup isn’t as appealing, Seattle’s defense is more vulnerable on the road than at home. AP went down $700 from last week so at his current salary, he does provide value. I will certainly take him in a few cash games, and he does represent a nice tournament option as most people will be scared away by Seattle’s defense and the value at the running back position this week.

Doug Martin ($5,900) vs. Atlanta Falcons: I continue to see analysts and fans steer clear of running backs playing the Atlanta Falcons due to their perception as a good running defense since they are only letting up over 81 rushing yards per game. While that is true, the rushing yards don’t tell the whole story. Atlanta is actually giving up the most points to opposing running backs with an average of 30 points per game. They are tied with Detroit for giving up the most rushing touchdowns per game with 12, so teams are averaging over 1 rushing touchdown a week on them. Furthermore, they have given up the most receptions to opposing running backs with over 83 receptions on the year or 7.5 catches per game to go along with over 60 receiving yards.

DeAngelo Williams ($5,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: DeAneglo got back on track last week with a very nice game against Seattle. This week he gets to face a Colts defense who has been average against the run allowing 96 rushing yards per game and just under 5 receptions per game to opposing RBs. There are 11 running backs priced ahead of him which makes him excellent value this week. The Colts are going to have their hands full trying to stop Pittsburgh’s aerial attack which should open up some running lanes for Williams.

Javorius Allen ($5,400) @ Miami Dolphins: Buck Allen had a great debut on Monday night versus a putrid Cleveland Browns defense. This week he gets to face a Miami Dolphins’ defense that is giving up the 5th most points a game to opposing running backs. The Dolphins are giving up 119 rushing yards per game and opposing running backs are averaging just under 4.5 catches per game. They have given up 9 rushing touchdowns on the year, and I fully expect the Ravens to ride Allen again this game.

David Johnson ($3,400) @ St. Louis Rams: David Johnson is another great value play this week, with Chris Johnson being placed on short term IR and Ellington’s status in question. The Rams are surprisingly giving up the 11th most points to opposing running backs and are not the same team when Ogletree and Quinn aren’t in the lineup. Opposing running backs are averaging 91 rushing yards, 5.91 catches and 57 receiving yards per game. Don’t overthink this one, David Johnson is the top back in a high powered offense at a minimum price. Don’t overthink this one.

Other Cash/Multiplier Game Options

CJ Anderson ($3,500) @ San Diego Chargers: CJ Anderson owners can finally rejoice after last weeks game. Anderson has been a colossal disappointment this year but he as well as the entire Denver ground game has begun to turn things around with Brock under center. This week Anderson gets to face off against a Chargers’ defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs with them averaging just under 30 points per game. The Chargers have given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the year to go along with 110 rushing yards per game. To make matters worse opposing running backs are also averaging 5.5 catches per game with over 57 receiving yards per game. If Anderson and Hillman split time, Anderson has been receiving more touches and presents a dirt cheap price at $3.5k.

Tournament Gambles

Matt Forte ($6,900) vs. San Francisco 49ers, Shaun Draughn ($4,000) @ Chicago Bears, LeSean McCoy ($5,700) vs. Houston

Wide Receiver Plays

Cash Game Staples

It’s hard not to mention the 4 studs at the top on a weekly basis as all for the most part are matchup proof but this week all 4 have very appealing matchups. I have a higher number of Wide Receivers this week due to a full slate of games and a lot of appealing matchups and value plays.

Julio Jones ($9,000) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Julio Jones has 29 catches, 442 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 3 games against the Bucs. Furthermore, he has the 3rd best matchup advantage according to PFF as he should see coverage from Jude Adjei-Barimah.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,900) vs. New York Jets: OBJ came up big for us last week and delivered yet again. This week he gets a good matchup versus a Jet’s defense that is giving up the 10th most fantasy points to opposing receivers. To make matters worse, it does not look like Darrelle Revis is going to play as he is still sidelined with a concussion. If Revis is a no go, I think I like OBJ as my top high priced WR option.

Deandre Hopkins ($8,800) vs. Buffalo Bills: Hopkins for the first time all year was a DFS disappointment in a great matchup. This week he gets to face a Buffalo defense that just let Jeremy Maclin have a day. The Bills are allowing the 7th most points to opposing WR’s with just under 40 points per game. While Stephon Gilmore is a very good emerging young corner, Hopkins has proved throughout most of this year he is matchup proof.

Antonio Brown ($8,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Had a somewhat quite game last week hauling in 6 receptions for 51 yards. But that was expected as he faced off versus Richard Sherman for much of the evening. The important thing is he still received 12 targets and has the full confidence of Ben regardless of his individual matchup. If Ben plays this week, Brown should see some of Davis and Toler which gives Brown the advantage. He’s a target machine with a very high weekly floor with an appealing matchup.

Alshon Jeffrey ($6,900) vs. San Francisco 49ers: For the first time all year, Jeffrey was not mentioned on the Bear’s injury report. He had a solid game last week vs. Green Bay, hauling in 6 of his 11 targets for 90 receiving yards. The 49ers are giving up the 6th most points to opposing wide receivers and Jeffrey is the main target in this Bears offense that looks like they might be without Martellus Bennett again. He will be going up against 5’10 Tramine Brock and should be force fed the ball from Cutler.

TY Hilton ($5,700) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: TY Hilton and Hasselback finally got on the same page last week as Hilton hauled both touchdowns. This week he gets to face struggling corner, Antwon Blake, and has PFF 2nd best matchup advantage. Even more appealing is the fact that the Steelers are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing wide receivers with an average of 44 fantasy points per game. The Steelers have given up 14 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers and this trend should continue as Vegas is predicting this to be a high scoring game.

Martavis Bryant ($5,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Bryant still isnt getting the love on DFS given his price. In 6 games this year Bryant has over 500 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns. He is a threat any time he touches the ball as made apparent with his td run vs. Seattle last week. Bryant has PFF 5th best matchup advantage as he is facing a struggling Greg Toler. According to PFF only 10 cornerbacks have earned a worse grade than Toler who is allowing over 61.9% of his targets to be caught.

Kamar Aiken ($4,800) @ Miami Dolphins: Aiken is coming off a big Monday Night game and has another favorable matchup on the schedule versus Miami. Aiken has PFF’s 4th best matchup as he should face Jamar Taylor for much of the afternoon who has the 6th worse grade according to PFF. In addition, Miami is giving up the 4th most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers. He’s the #1 in this offense at a meager price with a nice matchup coming off a good game.

Danny Amendola ($4,700) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: If Amendola should return and play this week, he should be a cash game staple. With Gronk expected to be out, Amendola should pick up right where he left off before he got hurt. The Eagles defense is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing receivers and have completely fallen apart the last 2 weeks. Billy Davis refuses to give safety help and leaves his corners on an island in man coverage. Furthermore, the Eagles have struggled against opposing slot wide receivers as EJ Biggers has been getting tormented in recent weeks.

Other Cash Game/ Multiplier Options:

Brandon Marshall ($7,100) and Eric Decker ($6,300) @ New York Giants, Jarvis Landry ($6,700) vs. Baltimore Ravens, and Donte Moncrief ($4,600) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Tournament Gambles

AJ Green ($7,600) vs. Cleveland Browns: Green could be the tournament play of the week if Eifert were to sit out with his neck injury. He has PFF’s top rated matchup advantage as he should see coverage from Joe Haden who has struggled with injuries this year.

Other Tournament Gambles: Devante Parker ($3,300) vs. Baltimore Ravens, Ted Ginn Jr. ($3,600) @ New Orleans

Tight End Plays

Cash Game Staples

Greg Olsen ($6,400) @ New Orleans Saints: This one is easy, Olsen is Cam Newton’s top target and the Saints give up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends with over 19 points per game. They have given up 10 touchdowns to tight ends on the year, 2nd most in the NFL.

Travis Kelce ($4,700) vs. Oakland Raiders: Travis Kelce is this week’s lucky TE to face the Oakland Raiders defense. The only defense worse than the Saints and Giants versus the TE is the Oakland Raiders.  The Raiders are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a league high 11 touchdowns versus them.

Scott Chandler ($2,500) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Chandler will be a staple in all my cash lineups whether in the TE spot or in the flex as salary relief. Although Philly has been solid versus the Tight End all year, Gronk is expected to be out and Brady is in need of targets. Chandler will easily exceed 3x value if not 4x value this week, you’ll be at a severe disadvantage if you do not play him this week.

Other Cash Game Options: Delanie Walker ($5,700) vs. Jacksonville

Tournament Gambles

Luke Wilson ($2,400) @ Minnesota Vikings: Jimmy Graham is out for the year with a torn Patellar Tendon, which means Luke Wilson is now the starting tight end for the Seahawks. This has nothing to do with matchup but all to do with price and value. It will take Wilson a meager 4 catches and 30 receiving yards to hit 3x value. I only suggest him as tournament option as most people will jump at Chandler at this price range for tight end which will make Wilson low owned and in a great spot for tournaments.

Defenses to Target

Arizona Cardinals ($3,900) @ St. Louis Rams

Cincinnati Bengals ($3,400) @ Cleveland Browns

Washington Redskins ($2,300) vs. Dallas Cowboys

Best of luck this weekend!

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

Read More 2567 Words

DFS Corner: Week 12 DraftKings Plays

Welcome back to NFP's Week 12 DFS Corner. I hope everyone has a relaxing, safe, and enjoyable Thanksgiving. I, for one, am hoping the play of my Eagles doesn't ruin my appetite for the remainder of the day. Last week, I got back on track as most of my suggestions reached or exceeded their value.

Welcome back to NFP’s Week 12 DFS Corner. I hope everyone has a relaxing, safe, and enjoyable Thanksgiving. I, for one, am hoping the play of my Eagles doesn’t ruin my appetite for the remainder of the day. Last week, I got back on track as most of my suggestions reached or exceeded their value. But I wasn’t without some misses as the injury bug hurt my picks of Devonta Freeman, Charcandrick West and Zach Ertz.

We are now officially done with bye weeks, so we have all 32 teams at our disposal this weekend. The format below is a little different this week given the Thursday slate on Thanksgiving. Please leave some feedback on the new format, as I am trying to provide you with the best intel.

For those of you who haven’t signed up for DraftKings yet and would like to, sign up here

National Football Post is also hosting a League this weekend. If you would like to participate in NFP’s DFS Corner  50/50 League, you can enter a team here.

Please find this weeks weather report for all the games here

Here are Vegas’s week 12 Spreads and Game Totals

Home Away Spread Total Game Date Time
Detroit Lions Philadelphia Eagles PHL -1 46 Thurs. Nov. 26th 12:30pm
Dallas Cowboys Carolina Panthers CAR -1 46 Thurs. Nov. 26th 4:30pm
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -9 47 Thurs. Nov 26th 8:30pm
Houston Texans New Orleans Saints HOU -3 47.5 Sun. Nov 29th 1:00pm
Cincinnati Bengals St. Louis Rams CIN -9 42 Sun. Nov 29th 1:00pm
Atlanta Falcons Minnesota Vikings ATL -2 46 Sun. Nov 29th 1:00pm
Washington Redskins New York Giants NYG -2.5 46.5 Sun. Nov 29th 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts Tampa Bay Buccaneers IND -3 46.5 Sun. Nov 29th 1:oopm
Kansas City Chiefs Buffalo Bills KC -5 41 Sun. Nov 29th 1:00pm
Tennessee Titans Oakland Raiders OAK -2 44 Sun. Nov 29th 1:oopm
Jacksonville Jaguars San Diego Chargers JAC -4 46.5 Sun. Nov 29th 1:oopm
New York Jets Miami Dolphins NYJ -3.5 42.5 Sun. Nov 29th 1:00pm
San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals ARZ -10 45 Sun. Nov 29th 4:05pm
Seattle Seahawks Pittsburgh Steelers SEA -4.5 44.5 Sun. Nov 29th 4:25pm
Denver Broncos New England Patriots NE -3 44.5 Sun. Nov 29th 8:30pm
Cleveland Browns Baltimore Ravens CLE -2.5 41 Mon. Nov 30th 8:30pm

 

Thursday: Turkey Edition Plays

Quarterbacks:

Cash Game Play: Aaron Rodgers ($7,400) vs. Chicago Bears: Despite the Packers offense not running as smoothly as we are used to, Aaron Rodgers has still been a very productive quarterback.  Rodgers’s last 3 games have consisted of point totals of 19.08, 25.12, and 36.96 points. Rodgers represents the safest option on a short 3 game slate. While the Bears, statistically, have been strong versus the pass this year, I expect Rodgers to be firing on all cylinders on prime time versus a defense that is allowing over 23 points a game and which Vegas predicts to have a total of 47, the highest of any Thanksgiving game.

Tournament Plays: Matt Stafford ($5,800) vs. Philadelphia Eagles and Mark Sanchez ($5,200)

Running backs

Matt Forte ($6,800) @ Green Bay Packers: Forte is set to make his return this week after sitting out the past month with an MCL sprain. Although Forte will probably give up some carries to Langford, I am still expecting a heavy workload given the uncertainty with injuries to Jeffrey, Royal and Bennett. Furthermore, Forte is never priced below $7k and his work in the receiving game alone should provide a high floor.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson ($7,200) vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Calvin is the top WR play for the Thursday slate. He gets to face off against an Eagles defense that is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing receivers. Nolan Carroll and Byron Maxwell are no match for Calvin Johnson and the Eagles will have no answers.

Tight End

Brent Celek ($3,200) @ Detroit Lions: Celek is a great value tight end for the Thursday slate. Zach Ertz looks to be out with a concussion, and Celek will be the beneficiary of that. Mark Sanchez looks for his tight ends often as evident last week when he caught 7 passes for 79 yards off of 10 targets.

Sunday Slate

Quarterback Options

Carson Palmer ($7,100) @ San Francisco 49ers: Palmer is coming off an impressive 317 passing yards and 4 touchdown performance versus the Cincinnati Bengals. He has been a great cash game option as he has exceeded 3x value in his last 4 games with scores of 29.58, 26.32, 33.56, and 19.2. The 49ers are giving up the 5th most points to opposing fantasy QBs and are allowing over 291 passing yards per game. The only thing to be conscious of would be if the Cardinals get up big early and rely on the run more given the 49ers inability to also to defend the run. But the Cardinals don’t really utilize their running backs to grind out games, so I see Palmer being an extremely safe option.

Brian Hoyer ($5,000) vs. New Orleans Saints: Hoyer has been a staple cash game play of mine when the right matchup presents itself given the Texans’ high volume of passes and his cheap price. This week, the Texans get to face the worst defense in football in the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are coming out of a bye and Rob Ryan is no longer the defensive coordinator, but the lack of quality playmakers remains. The Saints give up the most points to opposing quarterbacks, giving up an average of 25 points per game. The Saints’ defense has already allowed 28 touchdowns on the year , 17 touchdowns over the past 4 weeks, and are letting up an average of 308 passing yards per game. Hoyer represents extreme value this week.

Tournament Plays: Eli Manning ($6,500) @ Washington, Kirk Cousins ($5,400) vs. New York Giants

Runnings Backs:

Adrian Peterson ($7,300) @ Atlanta Falcons: AP is the only high priced running back I will consider paying up for in lineups this week. AP was a disappointment last week, but I am looking for him to get back on track this week against a below average Atlanta run defense. The Falcons are giving up the third most points to opposing running backs this year.

TJ Yeldon ($4,800) vs. San Diego Chargers: Yeldon is the lucky running back to go off against the worst rushing defense in the NFL in the San Diego Chargers. Not only are the Chargers giving up the most points to opposing running backs, but they are giving up 111 rushing yards per game and over 5 receptions per game. The game script also favors Yeldon as the Jaguars are 4.5 point favorites in a game Vegas predicts to be pretty high scoring with a total of 46.5 points. The Chargers can’t stop anyone. They allowed Spencer Ware to run close for 100 yards and gave up 3 rushing touchdowns last week.

Thomas Rawls ($4,500) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rawls was a tournament savior for me last week as he got the start with Marshawn Lynch being a late inactive. Rawls offers great value again this week, despite the Steelers’ strong efforts against the run this year. Seattle is a run first team and Rawls is no slacker as he is leading the NFL with 6 YPC. He ran rampant last week with over 255 total yards, giving him his third 100 yard game of the season. He should see the lion’s share of volume again this week and could even find himself active on the receiving end once again. Start him with confidence. He presents great value this week in a game where the Seahawks are favorited by 4.5 points.

Javorius Allen ($4,600) vs. Cleveland Browns: With Justin Forsett and Joe Flacco both out for the year, I am expecting people to potentially fade the Ravens’ offense until they see how they perform. But given Allen’s low price and the fact that he is facing a Browns’ defense that is giving up an NFL worst 138 rushing yards per game, I am intrigued. I am assuming the Ravens will rely on Allen for most of their offensive production, and he should be active in both the rushing and passing game.

Chris Johnson ($4,600) vs. San Francisco 49ers: CJ2K has been quiet after his hot start, but his matchup and price makes him a great value play this week. The 49ers are giving up over 111 rushing yards per game and over 5.5 receptions to opposing running backs. They are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs as well. CJ2K had 2 touchdowns and over 111 yards versus the 49ers earlier this year, and the game script favors the rushing attack as the Cardinals are 10 point favorites.

Wide Receiver Plays:

Julio Jones ($9,400) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Julio Jones has the top matchup according to PFF as he gets to face off against promising, yet struggling, Xavier Rhodes. PFF has Julio having the biggest matchup advantage amongst WRs and CBs.  With Devonta Freeman’s status up in the air, the Falcons will need to rely on their passing game a little more this week. Julio Jones is a target machine already and will be a staple play of mine this week.

DeAndre Hopkins ($9,100) vs. New Orleans Saints: Hopkins further proved last week that he is a matchup proof option as he got the best of Darrelle Revis for much of the afternoon. This week, he gets to face Delvin Breaux who is a promising cornerback but no matchup for Hopkins and all the volume and targets he brings. He is the top play at WR this week, and given the value at running back and quarterback, I plan on pairing him with Julio.

Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) @ San Francisco 49ers : Fitz might be the most consistent option on a week to week basis, providing a high floor given his moderately high price. This week, he gets to face off against the 49ers who are giving up the 5th most points to opposing receivers. Fitz also has the most appealing mtachup of all Cardinals’ receivers as he should face off against Jimmie Ward for most of the afternoon. PFF has Fitz’s matchup vs Ward as the 4th biggest advantage amongst WR and CBs.

Stevie Johnson ($4,500) @ Jacksonville Jaguars : This one is simple, Johnson is still low priced and the top target for a pass happy Chargers’ offense. He hauled in 7 of his 8 targets last week exceeding 12 points for the second consecutive week. I am expecting the Chargers’ offense to get back on track, and if that’s the case, then Johnson will be a big reason why.

Other Wide Receivers I am Targeting in Cash/Tournaments:

Antonio Brown ($8,700) @ Seattle Seahawks, Odell Beckhem Jr. ($8,700) @ Washington Redskins, Eric Decker ($5,800) vs. Miami Dolphins, Stefon Diggs ($4,800) @ Atlanta Falcons, Jamison Crowder ($3,600) vs. New York Giants

Tight End Plays:

Cash Games

Jordan Reed ($5,100) vs. New York Giants: Vegas is predicting this to be a high scoring game with a total of 46.5 points. Jordan Reed continues to be one of Cousins’s favorite targets and the Giants struggle versus the tight end as they are giving up the most points versus opposing tight ends. Get back on Reed before his price jumps up again.

Delanie Walker ($5,400) vs. Oakland Raiders: It’s always a sound strategy to try and target tight ends facing the Raiders and this week is even better with a very involved tight end in Walker playing them. The Raiders are giving up over 15 points a game to opposing tight ends, which is the 2nd most in the league.

Gary “People’s Champ” Barnidge ($4,800) vs. Baltimore Ravens: Barnidge received a huge boost with the announcement of McCown taking over the QB duties again in Cleveland. Barnidge’s best games this year came when McCown was under center as he peppered him with targets on a regular basis. I expect much of the same here despite the Ravens keeping tight ends in check this season.

Tournament Options

Heath Miller ($3,100) @ Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks’ defense one primary weakness is covering the tight end. Miller’s value is always better with Big Ben under center and he could go unnoticed this week as the Seahawks have their hands full stopping Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant.

Defenses to Target

Cincinnati Bengals ($3,000) vs. St. Louis Rams

Cleveland Browns ($2,000) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

Read More 1920 Words

DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 11 Plays

Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP DFS Corner. Last weekend was a very low scoring weekend in fantasy, very similar to week 2 earlier this year. The usual studs took a backseat to some lesser known players who lit up the box scores. For anyone who hasn't played DraftKings yet and would like

Welcome back everyone for another week of NFP DFS Corner. Last weekend was a very low scoring weekend in fantasy, very similar to week 2 earlier this year. The usual studs took a backseat to some lesser known players who lit up the box scores. For anyone who hasn’t played DraftKings yet and would like to sign up, you can sign up here.

Week 11 Byes: Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 11 Weather Report can be found here.

It looks like rain will be a factor in Sunday’s Cowboys and Dolphins game.

Below you will see Vegas’s Spreads and O/U Totals for week 11. This is helpful in determining potential game scripts based off Vegas’s projections.

Home Away Spread Total Game Date Time
Jaguars Titans JAC -3 43 Thurs. Nov 19th 8:25pm
Lions Raiders OAK -1.5 48 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Falcons Colts 47.5 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Texans Jets NYJ -2.5 42 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Eagles Buccaneers PHI -6 45.5 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Bears Broncos DEN -2 43 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Vikings Packers MIN -1 45 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Ravens Rams BAL -1.5 42 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Dolphins Cowboys DAL -1 47 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Panthers Redskins CAR -7 45 Sun. Nov 22nd 1pm
Cardinals Bengals ARI -3 48 Sun. Nov 22nd 4:05pm
Seahawks 49ers SEA -12 40.5 Sun. Nov 22nd 4:25pm
Chargers Chiefs KC -3 44.5 Sun. Nov 22nd 8:30pm
Patriots Bills NE -7 48.5 Mon. Nov 23rd 8:30pm

Quarterback Plays

High Priced Options:

I will not be paying up for any high priced Quarterbacks this week, but if I did, it would be for Tom Brady.

Mid Priced Options

Cam Netwon ($6,900) vs. Washington Redskins: Cam Newton has been a very consistent cash game QB this year given his rushing upside and touchdown production. He threw for 217 yards last week to go along with one passing and one rushing touchdown. Washington is an average defense, and they are coming off a huge win and have a big road test this week at Carolina. The Panthers are touchdown favorites and this offense runs through Cam Newton. I expect at least 200 passing yards to go along with a touchdown in the air as well as on the ground.

Derek Carr ($6,300) @ Detroit Lions: Derek Carr is quickly ascending into a Franchise caliber QB in his second season with the Raiders. He has a great matchup this week versus the Lions, who are giving up the 4th most points to opposing QBs. Although their defense played well last week, I am not buying it as they have allowed over 16 touchdowns through the air to go along with only 4 interceptions. Carr has been very consistent the past few weeks since their bye, putting up 22.3, 30.3, 32.1 and 23.9 points. He has averaged over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns over those past 4 games.

Low Priced Options:

Matt Stafford ($5,400) vs. Oakland Raiders: While Stafford has been very up and down this year, he has been better as of late. He has reached 3x value 3 out of the past 4 weeks and has a favorable matchup this week versus an Oakland defense that is giving up over 20 points a game to opposing QBs and just lost their second best pass rusher in Aldon Smith for the remainder of the year. The Oakland pass defense ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game and have given up 16 touchdowns through the air. The Raiders have been solid against the run and the Lions have no running game so I am expecting them to air out in this game which Vegas has the O/U at 48.5.

Mark Sanchez ($5,000) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sanchez should get the start in this one as Sam Bradford suffered a separated shoulder and a concussion last week vs. the Dolphins. The selection of Sanchez here is simple, he is $5k and should easily reach his value in a game that Vegas is predicting the Eagles to put up 28 points in this game. Sanchez knows this offense and runs it with a faster pace than Bradford does. I don’t think there will be much drop of in terms of fantasy. The Bucs are allowing opposing QBs to put up over 19 points against them which would be almost 4x value given Sanchez current price.

Other QB’s to target: Marcus Mariota (Tournaments), Brock Osweiler (Tournaments), Case Keenum (Tournaments)

Running Back Plays

High Priced Options

Devonta Freeman ($8,400) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Freeman and the Falcons should be fresh for this matchup as they are coming off a bye. Despite only receiving 12 carries in a very disappointing loss against the 49ers, Freeman was still able to bring in 8 receptions and a receiving touchdown. Regardless, I am expecting the Falcons to come out focused in this game and Freeman is very active in the passing game and a focal point of this offense. The Colts’ rush D has allowed the 22nd most rushing yards on the season and the -6.5 game script and O/U of 47.5 provides a high scoring game and a favorable game script for Freeman.

Mid Priced Options:

Adrian Peterson ($6,800) vs. Green Bay Packers: I had to double check and make sure that Adrian Peterson was actually priced at $6.8k and that it wasn’t an error. AP is coming into full stride as he just rushed for 203 yards and 1 touchdown. This is a big divisional matchup versus a struggling Packers team. The Packers rush D is ranked 24th in the NFL allowing over 116 rushing yards per game. The Vikings offense is built around AP and he usually tends to have big games against the Cheese Heads.

Lamar Miller ($6,200) vs. Dallas Cowboys: Despite the emergence of rookie Jay Ajayi, Miller is still the lead back in Miami. Since the firing of Joe Philbin, Miller has been a very consistent play. Since Dan Campbell took over, Miller has had 21.3, 33.1, 14.4, 41.6 and 22.8 points over that span. Over the last 3 games he is averaging over 6 catches a game which presents a very nice floor. Furthermore, he is facing a Dallas defense that is allowing over 108 rushing yards per game and over 30 points per game to opposing fantasy running backs.

DeMarco Murray ($6,000) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Murray was solid again last week rushing for 61 yards and hauling in 6 catches for 58 receiving yards. It looks like Ryan Matthews will not be playing this week, so continue to monitor his status as he goes through the leagues concussion protocol. Without the threat of Matthews, Murray shouldn’t have any of his touchdowns vultured away. Despite the Bucs being solid against the run, I recommend this pick due to Murray’s high floor given his touches and involvement in the passing game. Sanchez does not really stretch the field so I am expecting a lot of dump offs to Murray.

Low Priced Options

Charcandrick West ($4,500) @ San Diego Chargers: I will have a lot of exposure to West this week as he gets to face off against a Chargers defense that is giving up the most points to opposing running backs. West put up 31.1 points against a very good Broncos defense, albeit missing some key players due to injuries. Nonetheless, he has seen over 25 touches since he took over the job and has posted scores of 31.1, 22.2 and 23.9 points.

Darren McFadden ($5,000) @ Miami Dolphins: The Cowboys offense was completely underwhelming last week in a losing effort to Tampa Bay. Tony Romo is slated to make his return this week and the offense should drastically improve even if Romo is rusty and not 100%. I would imagine they would try to lean on the run and ease Romo back into play. The Cowboys just cut Christine Michael this week leaving no threat to McFadden behind him. His volume should be high and he gets to face a Miami run defense that is ranked 31st in the NFL allowing over 130 rushing yards per game.

Other Running backs to target: Marshawn Lynch ($6,700), Frank Gore ($4,700), and Jonathan Stewart ($4,400), Darren Sproles (Tournaments)

Wide Receiver Plays

High Priced Options

Demaryius Thomas ($7,300) @ Chicago Bears: A lot of people will be fading DT this weekend due to Brock Osweiler making his first NFL start of the season and the struggles of the Broncos’ offense. But I don’t think Osweiler will be a hindrance to DT whatsoever and might actually provide an upgrade over the weak armed Manning. DT is still a target machine, but the touchdowns haven’t been there this year as he has only 1 on the season. I am expecting Brock to get the ball down the field and rely on DT as a security blanket for him.

Calvin Johnson ($7,200) vs Oakland Raiders: Johnson has been hobbled yet again by an ankle injury but should be good to go this weekend. While he is not the dominant Megatron of the past, he is still Matt Stafford’s most targeted receiver in a game where a lot of passing is expected. None of the Raiders corners are very good and this presents a very good matchup for both Calvin and Golden Tate.

Middle Priced Options

Michael Crabtree ($6,000) @ Detroit Lions: Crabtree has reinvented himself in Oakland this year. Crabtree has been a target monster on the year despite only getting 5 targets last week. Lets hope his average game last week scares some people away in what will be a very good matchup for the Raiders passing attack. The Lions are giving up over 40 fantasy points to opposing receivers and I am expecting Slay to guard Cooper in this one which should allow Crabtree to garner more targets.

Jordan Matthews ($6,000) vs. Tampa Bay Bucaneers: For most of the reasons I stated above, Sanchez doesnt love to stretch the field veritcally but throws a lot of underneath stuff and short passes over the middle. Sanchez had great chemistry last year with Matthews and was the main reason for his strong finish. Matthews also has a great matchup against struggling nickel cornerback, Alterraun Verner.

Low Priced Options

Danny Amendola ($4,000) vs. Buffalo Bills: Amendola will be a very popular and highly owned pick this week but you must take advantage of his current $4k price for the volume that is expected. Amendola will be replacing Julian Edelman and should immediately see 8 plus targets a game playing out of the slot. He gets a very favorable matchup against struggling corner Nickell Robey as Darby and Gilmore will lock down the outside receivers.

Stevie Johnson ($3,900) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Stevie Johnson is strictly a value play here as he has become one of River’s top targets due to the slew of injuries the Chargers have had on offense. Johnson has the best matchup out of the receivers facing Ron Parker and had 10 targets last game. He should see a lot of targets due to the amount of passes Rivers has been throwing this year so it shouldn’t be hard for Johnson to hit 3x value in this matchup.

Other Wide Receivers to target: Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs

Tight End Plays

High Priced Options

Rob Gronkowski ($7,700) vs. Buffalo Bills: Gronk is always a consideration each week given his TD upside. With the Patriots losing Edelman and Dion Lewis, Brady is running out of comfortable/familiar faces. I am expecting to see a bump in Gronk’s volume moving forward and with all the price savings at other positions it will not be hard to squeeze him in our lineups.

Mid Priced Options

Antonio Gates ($4,800) vs. Kansas City: As mentioned above, Gates is one of the few remaining targets Rivers has left. Despite not the greatest matchup, Gates is essentially matchup proof. He is averaging over 11 targets, 7 catches and 78 yards per game and is $2,900 less than Gronk

Jacob Tamme ($3,600) vs. Indianapolis Colts: Tamme has been quitely on a nice little stretch since week 5. Going into the bye, he saw a total of 22 targets in the two previous games. His scoring output since week 5 has been 12.1, 29.3, 6.6, 6.2, 17.4 points. The Colts are giving up the 5th most points to tight ends, so Tamme should be able to reach value with low ownership.

Zach Ertz ($3,100) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The injuries up front for the Eagles’ offensive line have resulted in the Eagles using more 2 tight end sets recently. Ertz has been exceeding value over the past weeks with performances of 13.8, 9.4, 11.3, 8.3 and 11 points. He had a touchdown called back last week, and we all remember how much Mark Sanchez utilized him last year down the stretch and ended the season with a 15 catch effort against Washington. As stated before, Sanchez throws a lot of short and intermediate passes so Ertz is a good punt TE with plenty of upside.

Other Tight Ends to target: Travis Kelce ($4,700)

Defenses to Target

Seattle Seahawks ($4,000) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Carolina Panthers ($3,600) vs. Washington Redskins

New York Jets ($3,000) @ Houston

Kansas City Chiefs ($2,600) vs. San Diego Chargers

Best of luck to everyone this weekend. Make sure to check the Active/Inactive list as the come out tomorrow morning.

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

Read More 2067 Words

DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 10 Plays

Welcome back for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. Condolences to readers who live in the state of NY and can no longer submit entries into DraftKings and FanDuel due to the Attorney General's ruling that daily fantasy is gambling. It was a very interesting decision considering FanDuel is headquartered in New York and New York

Welcome back for another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. Condolences to readers who live in the state of NY and can no longer submit entries into DraftKings and FanDuel due to the Attorney General’s ruling that daily fantasy is gambling. It was a very interesting decision considering FanDuel is headquartered in New York and New York contains both sites’ biggest client base. It will be interesting to follow over the course of the next few months, as I am sure there will be injunctions and court rulings on the way.

Putting that aside, let’s get back to business for Week 10. I hope a lot of you fared better than I did last week, as this past weekend was the first time I didn’t make a profit and actually took a little hit, but it’s all part of the game. You should look at DraftKings as a stock or portfolio that will have some ups and downs. Last week, a lot of average players and players with suspect matchups out performed expectations. I did not see Blaine Gabbert beating the Atlanta Falcons. But I guess that’s where the saying “any given Sunday” comes from. I also learned another hard lesson this past weekend, and one I should add to my DFS Commandments moving forward. I shall never enter “Multi-Entry” tournaments, as they lower your odds of winning in cash games. A greater score is needed due to the fact that it exposes you to a greater threat of sharks that use algorithms with hundreds of entries.

Here are the teams on bye this weekend and Vegas O/U’s for Week 10.

Week 10 Byes: Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers

Week 10 NFL Weather Forecast

Home Away Spread Total Date Time
New York Jets Buffalo Bills NYJ -2.5 43 Thurs. Nov 12th 8:25pm
Green Bay Packers Detroit Lions GB -11.5 48 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dallas Cowboys TB -1.5 43 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
Tennessee Titans Carolina Panthers CAR -4.5 43.5 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
St. Louis Rams Chicago Bears STL -7 42.5 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
Washington Redskins New Orleans Saints NO -1 50.5 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
Philadelphia Eagles Miami Dolphins PHI -6 47 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
Pittsburgh Steelers Cleveland Browns PIT -4.5 41 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
Baltimore Ravens Jacksonville Jaguars BAL -5.5 48 Sun. Nov 15th 1pm
Oakland Raiders Minnesota Vikings OAK -3 44 Sun. Nov 15th 4:05pm
New York Giants New England Patriots NE -7 54.5 Sun. Nov 15th 4:25pm
Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs DEN -6.5 42 Sun. Nov 15th 4:25pm
Seattle Seahawks Arizona Cardinals SEA -3 45 Sun. Nov 15th 8:30pm
Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texans CIN -10.5 47.5 Mon. Nov 16th 8:30pm

Quarterback Plays

High Priced Options

Tom Brady ($8.6k) @ New York Giants: Brady was a disappointment last week (by Tom Brady standards) as he only managed to get 18.9 points, just missing the 300 yard passing bonus by 1 yard. I think the loss of Dion Lewis will hurt this offense, but it’s not something to be overly concerned about. Brady gets to tee off against a New York Giants defense that is allowing the 4th most points to opposing QBs and the 2nd most passing yards. The Giants’ defense just allowed Drew Brees to throw for 7 touchdowns and 505 passing yards 2 weeks ago. The one key stat to look at is the Giants lack of pass rush, as they have only generated 9 sacks all year, which is the worst in the NFL. If you give Brady time to pick you apart, he will. I expect Brady to post huge numbers against a very pedestrian defense.

Image-1

One of my lineups last week

Aaron Rodgers ($7.5k) vs. Detroit Lions: Aaron Rodgers under $8k? What is going on in the world? It’s time for us to take a page out of Aaron’s book and all “RELAX”. Yes, the Packers offense has not looked like themselves over the past few weeks, but they also have had some really tough matchups with the Broncos and Panthers. This week, they get to face off against an NFC North weakling in the Detroit Lions who are giving up the 5th most points to opposing QBs. The last time the Lions won in Green Bay was in 1991. They have lost 24 straight games in Green Bay, and this is a very weak Lions team. I am expecting a huge bounce back game from ARod and will be pairing him with Cobb in a lot of my entries. He represents a great cash game and GPP play as he will likely be less owned than Brady. Don’t be fooled by recency bias, Rodgers is a sure thing and a bet to reach 3x value in a game where they are projected to win by 11.5 points.

Mid Priced Options

I won’t be playing any mid priced Quarterbacks this week due to the value and matchups the lower priced QBs offer. If I were to select any mid priced QB this week it would be Andy Dalton, as he gets to face a very weak Texans defense. Dalton has been very consistent on the season and represents a great tournament play QB this week due to his likely low ownership percentage.

Low Priced Options

Blake Bortles ($5.6k) @ Baltimore Ravens: Bortles will be a staple in many of my lineups this weekend as he is a safer streaming option at quarterback than Kirk Cousins. Bortles is coming off of a 381 passing yard, 2 TD, and 2 Int game against a very good Jets’ defense last week. Bortles is facing a Baltimore Ravens’ defense that is giving up an average of 22 points per game, which is the second most points to opposing QBs. Furthermore, the Ravens’ pass defense ranks 32nd in the NFL, which should bode well for Bortles given his weekly volume. Bortles has had 4 straights games with multiple touchdowns, which alone allows him to achieve his value at his current price point.

Kirk Cousins ($5.2k) vs. New Orleans Saints: This selection is not for the faint of heart as Kirk Cousins is not the most consistent QB in DraftKings, but he does offer great value this week in terms of upside (has finished top 5 QB twice this season) and in terms of flexibility with salary. He gets to face the New Orleans Saints’ defense that is giving up the most points to opposing QBs with over 23 a game. This pathetic Saints’ defense gave up 6 touchdowns and 329 yards to Eli Manning 2 weeks ago and just allowed Marcus Mariota, with his depleted receiving corps, to throw for 329 yards and 4 touchdowns last week. Vegas has this game slated as the 2nd highest Total at 50.5, so I am not expecting much defense but a whole lot of offense. Cousins should easily reach value off pure volume alone.

Running Back Plays

Top Priced Options

Todd Gurley ($7.3k) vs. Chicago Bears: Gurley put up 89 rushing yards and 1 TD with 3 catches last week versus Minnesota. Gurley has taken the NFL by storm since he has taken over the lead back duties in St. Louis. This week, he gets to face a Bears’ defense that is giving up 121 rushing yards per game, which is ranked 24th in the NFL. While the Bears have been giving up yards on the ground, they have only given up 2 rushing touchdowns all season. The Rams’ offense runs through Gurley and I expect him to continue to be a force and find his way into the end zone.

Demarco Murray ($6.2k) vs. Miami Dolphins: Murray has finally made his way back on the scene as he has received over 20 touches the last 4 games. Murray finished last week 83 rushing yards, 1 TD, 6 catches and 78 receiving yards versus his former team. The Dolphins rush defense has been atrocious as they are currently ranked 31st in the NFL allowing over 141 yards per game. The Bills just ran all over Miami to the tune of 266 rushing yards and 3 TDs. Murray represents a safe cash game option due to his volume and his role in the pass game, which presents a high floor.

DeAngelo Williams ($6.5k) vs. Cleveland Browns: DeAngelo picked up right where he left last week torching the Oakland Raiders for 170 rushing yards, 2 TDs and 2 receptions for 55 yards. He now gets to face the Cleveland Browns’ defense that has given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs and giving up the most rushing yards per game with an average of 147 yards. With Landry Jones filling in for Big Ben at QB, look for the offense to run through Williams. He should be a lock in all formats if he does in fact play. Monitor his foot injury as the week goes on.

Mid Priced Options

Darren McFadden ($4.9k) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Is a must play in all GPP and Cash game formats this week. Since taking over the lead role in the Cowboys’ backfield, RUN DMC has received over 85 carries and 397 total yards over his last 3 games. Those worried about Christine Michael cutting into his snaps should be at ease as Michael didn’t receive 1 carry in last week’s Sunday night showdown versus the Eagles. Although the Eagles’ defense held DMC to only 1 catch, he was able to still 122 total yards against a very good Eagles’ run defense. Look for the Cowboys to continue to feature DMC as a focal point of this offense against PFF’s 4th worst run defense in the Bucs.

Jeremy Langford ($4.8k) vs. St. Louis Rams: What a first start for the rookie. Langford finished his night with 72 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD, and 3 catches for 72 yards. This is a tough matchup for Langford as the Rams are only allowing 104 rushing yards per game, which is 13th best in the NFL. But they did just let the Vikings run for 160 yards on them, and Langford’s value comes more from his price and role in this offense. He should receive the majority of the backfield touches yet again and be active in the passing game. His volume alone should allow him to reach value.

Low Priced Options

Theo Riddick ($3.3k) @ Green Bay Packers : Riddick is a great punt play this week if you are trying to save some money. The pass catching specialist for the Lions has a carved out role in this offense. Vegas predicts the Lions to lose by over 11.5 points, which is the perfect game script for Riddick. If the Lions get behind, look for Riddick’s snaps to increase as the Lions try and play catch up. The garbage time scat back should easily reach 3x value and is an excellent punt play.

Wide Receiver Plays

High Priced Options

DeAndre Hopkins ($8.7k) @ Cincinnati Bengals: A Monday night game coming off a bye is not the best matchup, but it doesn’t matter due to Hopkins’s volume and role in this offense. Vegas is predicting the Bengals to win by over 10.5. If that is the case, then the game script plays well for Hopkins. The Texans will be down and playing catch up, which should lead to plenty of targets and garbage time points for Hopkins.

Demaryius Thomas ($7.4k) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: DT killed me last week. He was one of the main reasons some of my lineups came up short. Yet, against my better judgement, I am sticking with him as he gets to face the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense that is allowing the most points to opposing fantasy WRs. DT is a #1 WR that amasses over 10 targets a game, and we are getting him at a severely reduced price here and it’s on us to take advantage of it. Forget last week, roll with DT, and reap the benefits.

Mid Priced Options

Alshon Jeffrey ($7.1k) @ St. Louis Rams: If Monday night’s game taught us anything, it’s that Jeffrey is essentially matchup proof given the volume he receives from Cutler. Janoris Jenkins is developing into a very solid NFL cornerback, but Jeffrey has a huge height advantage here and the volume needed to win in DFS.

Randall Cobb ($6.7k) vs. Detroit Lions: He will be a staple play of mine this week, and I will certainly stack him and Rodgers in multipliers and tournaments. Cobb bounced back last week like I had hoped and has another favorable matchup this week vs the Lions who are giving up the 11th most points to opposing WRs. Cobb will most likely draw coverage from Lions’ Nickel corners Diggs and Wilson, which should present another extremely favorable matchup for Cobb.

Allen Robinson ($6.7k) @ Baltimore Ravens: Allen Robinson, or as I refer to him “Baby Dez”, broke onto the scene this year and been one of the most consistent WRs since. I look for him to continue this trend as he gets to go up against a Ravens’ defense that is allowing the 2nd most points to opposing wide receivers. Robinson fared very well last week in a matchup on Revis Island where he was able pull in 6 catches for over 121 yards. Facing off versus the Ravens’ struggling corners in Jimmy Smith and Shareece Wright, I expect Robinson to reach his 3x value mark as well as Allen Hurns.

Low Priced Options

Stefon Diggs ($5.1k) @ Oakland Raiders: Diggs had his worst game as a pro last week as Janoris Jenkins limited him to 3 catches for 42 yards. But we are expecting a bounce back game from Diggs, as he has an extremely favorable matchup vs the Raiders. The Raiders are allowing the second most receiving yards to opposing WRs, and Diggs will most likely see coverage from either Hayden or Amerson. This tandem just allowed Antonio Brown to grab 17 balls to the tune on 284 yards. Many players and analysts have compared Diggs’s style of play to Brown’s, and considering Diggs has been nothing short of a stud prior to last week’s game, this is a very appealing matchup. Let people be afraid of Diggs after last week, and lock him in your lineups this weekend if Bridgewater does in fact play.

Brandon LaFell ($4.1k) @ New York Giants: LaFell burst back onto the scene last week in a big way. He will now be called upon even more with the loss of pass catching specialist Dion Lewis. As I mentioned above, the Giants’ defense doesn’t get any pressure. I expect Brady to pick them apart this week, and look for LaFell to post another solid game.

Tight End Plays

Rob Gronkowski ($8k) @ New York Giants: Gronk was a HUGE disappointment last week in a very enticing matchup vs the Redskins. Gronk was a staple in a lot of my lineups and barely made it over 1X his value. Despite the damage he did to me last week, I am going all on in on Gronk again as he gets to face off against a New York Giants defense that is allowing the most points to opposing tight ends. I think Brady, Gronk and the Patriots bounce back this week in a game which Vegas has pegged as their highest total with 54.5. I expect Gronk to be Brady’s security blanket with the loss of Dion Lewis and for the Pats to exploit the Giants’ weakness, which may have only gotten weaker with the loss of Jon Beason.

Jordan Reed ($4.6k) vs. New Orleans Saints: If I am not paying up for Gronk or stacking him with Brady, I am downgrading down and rolling with Jordan Reed in a juicy matchup vs the New Orleans Saints. As mentioned above, the Saints & Redskins game is being pinned as the 2nd highest total by Vegas with an O/U of 50.5. Reed has been the most consistent option for this Redskins aerial attack as he is 2nd in receptions with 38 on the season and leads the team with 4 touchdowns. There probably won’t be much defense in this game as the Saints have allowed an absurd 10 touchdowns the last 2 games.

Gary “Peoples Champ” Barnidge ($4.8k) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: This selection is solely based on if Josh McCown plays for the Browns. Barnidge and McCown have had a great connection all year and he has been McCown’s security blanket. If McCown plays, suit up Barnidge as the Steelers have already given up 7 touchdowns to opposing tight ends on the year.

Defensive Plays

Denver Broncos ($3.4k) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Green Bay Packers ($3.2k) vs. Detroit Lions

Oakland Raiders ($2.1k) vs. Minnesota Vikings

I hope this article helps all of you as begin to make your cash game and GPP lineups for this upcoming weekend. This article should provide you with a solid foundation as you do your research for your lineups. Please feel free to comment below with any questions or suggestions for this article in the future. I am here to try and provide you with my favored plays for the upcoming weekend. If you are interested in playing H2H games, my username is BigMikefromPhilly on Draftkings. I am also in the process of setting up a league each weekend for NFP’s DFS Corner, so if interested, please let me know and I will post the link. Good luck!

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

Read More 2765 Words

DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 9 Plays

Welcome back for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. I hope everyone made it through the past weekend okay, given the inordinate amount of injuries that were suffered this past Sunday. I was able to overcome the injuries to a few of my players selected in my lineups and still ended up in the green for the weekend.

Welcome back for another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. I hope everyone made it through the past weekend okay, given the inordinate amount of injuries that were suffered this past Sunday. I was able to overcome the injuries to a few of my players selected in my lineups and still ended up in the green for the weekend. This week will present a challenge with 6 teams on a bye and the asbsence of players like LeVeon Bell, Steve Smith, Keenan Allen, and Matt Forte. Let’s get into the week 9 slate that features 6 teams on byes.

NFL Week 6 Byes: Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks

Weather Forecast for the NFL Games this weekend

NFL Schedule and Vegas Lines and O/U’s

Home Away Spread Total
New England Patriots Washington Redskins NE -14 52
San Diego Chargers Chicago Bears SD -4 49.5
Pittsburgh Steelers Oakland Raiders PIT -4.5 48
Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Giants NYG -2.5 48
Indianapolis Colts Denver Broncos DEN -4 48
New Orleans Saints Tennessee Titans NO -8 47.5
Cincinnati Bengals Cleveland Browns CIN -10 46
Carolina Panthers Green Bay Packers GB -1.5 46
San Francisco 49ers Atlanta Falcons ATL -4.5 45
Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins BUF -3 44
Dallas Cowboys Philadelphia Eagles PHI -2.5 44
Minnesota Vikings St. Louis Rams MIN -2.5 40
New York Jets Jacksonville Jaguars NYG -2.5 40

Quarterback Plays

High Priced Options

Tom Brady ($8,500) vs. Washington Redskins: Brady is the only high priced QB I will consider playing in cash games this week. He has been the number 1 fantasy Quarterback this season as he has amassed 2,410 passing yards to go along with 20 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns. He is coming off a 4 touchdown game against Miami and has had extra time to prepare for a Redskins defense that just let Jameis Winston throw for over 289 yards and 2 touchdowns against them. Brady provides a consistent floor with a lot of upside and is exactly what you look for in a cash game QB.

Mid Tier Priced Options

Philip Rivers ($6,900) vs. Chicago Bears: Rivers has been one of the most consistent fantasy QBs the past few weeks largely due to game script and passing volume. Rivers met expectations last week against the Ravens throwing for over 300 passing yards to go along with 3 touchdowns. He has a good matchup this week versus the Bears who have given up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs despite their pass defense being ranked 4th in the NFL allowing 214 passing yards per game. The loss of Rivers number 1 wide receiver Keenan Allen will cause some concern, but their lack of a rushing game will continue to keep Rivers volume high and Vegas has this game projected with the second highest total at 49.5, which bodes well for a potential shoot out.

Low Priced Options

Tyrod Taylor ($5,300) vs. Miami Dolphins: Tyrod makes his debut back after missing the past few weeks due to injury. Tyrod was one of my favorite plays earlier in the season given his floor/upside potential. In the games he has played, his scores have been 15.9, 29, 24.3, 15.5 and 23.4 , all which have provided 3x value or more. The Patriots just had their way with Miami last week, and Buffalo took care of Miami in week 3 beating them 41-14, albeit that was when Philbin was the coach and Coyle was the defensive coordinator. I expect Tyrod to provide 3x value yet again this week while also providing you flexibility to spend money elsewhere.

Jay Cutler ($5,200) @ San Diego Chargers: Will be another great play this week that provides a lot of flexibility given his meager price. Vegas has this slated as the 2nd highest total at 49.5 and I expect it to be a shoot out as both defenses have struggled as of late. The Chargers gave up over 300 passing yards and 1 TD to Joe Flacco and the Ravens anemic offense last week and 3 touchdowns to Derek Carr the week before. The loss of Forte will place more of an onus on Cutler to pick up the slack while easing in rookie Jeremy Langford.  Cutler has had scores of 18.2, 18.6, 23.3 and 19.5 over his last 4 games which are all safely over 3x value.

Running Back Plays

High Priced Options

Devonta Freeman ($8,000) @ San Francisco 49ers: Devonta Freemna is one of the last men standing of the high priced running backs with the losses of LeVeon Bell and Matt Forte. Freeman has a very enticing matchup this week, facing a 49ers defense that has given up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs. To make matters worse, the 49ers give up an average of 123 rushing yards per game and have already given up 9 rushing touchdowns. They have been absolutely torched on the ground the past 2 weeks by the Seahawks and Rams. Atlanta is a 4.5 point favorite and this should bode nicely for Freeman as Gabbert is making his first start of the season for the 49ers and this game could get of hand quickly.

Todd Gurley ($6,900) @ Minnesota Vikings: How can you not start Gurley after this past stretch of games he has had? He has amassed over 420 rushing yards to go along with 3 touchdowns his past 3 games. While the Vikings have been very stout against the run this year only having allowed 104 rushing yards per game, it is very hard not to start a workhorse back like Gurley given he is the focal point of this offense.

Mid Tier Priced Options

DeAngelo Williams ($5,500) vs. Oakland Raiders: Williams will now assume the starting running back position for the Steelers with LeVeon Bell out the remainder of the year. Williams was the number 1 running back the first two weeks of the season when Bell sat out due to suspension. Williams gets a tough match this week versus a Raiders defense that is #2 in the NFL allowing only 82.9 rushing yards per game. Despite the tough matchup, I have trouble staying away from Williams given he will be the feature back and be active in the passing game which will help him reach his value. He received over 20 touches in both games he started earlier this year, so I would expect the same range of touches going into this one.

Low Priced Options

Darren McFadden ($4,600) vs. Philadelphia Eagles will be another good start this week as much it pains me to say (I am an Eagles fan). Despite this being a touch matchup its hard not to roll with McFadden given that he is the number one running back in Dallas and has been very active in the passing game, which is very favorable given DraftKings scoring system of 1pt per catch. The Eagles defense has been very stout against the run all year except against the Panthers, who ran for over 200 yards. While I am not expecting a big day on the ground for McFadden, I could easily see another 6 catch game, which puts him already more than half way to value.

Jeremy Langford ($4,000) @ San Diego Chargers will make his starting NFL debut this week while Matt Forte is out for the next two weeks dealing with a sprained knee. The Michigan State product gets a very favorable matchup in his first start as the Chargers give up the most points to opposing running backs. The Chargers are currently giving up 124.6 yards per game, which ranks 27th in the NFL. This game has the second highest total, so there is going to be plenty of opportunity for Langford to show off his acceleration that made him such an intriguing prospect in college. Given his minimal price range and expected volume, Langford is almost a must start.

Wide Receiver Plays

High Priced Options

Julio Jones ($9,300) @ San Francisco 49ers is another must play this week as he gets set to face a 49ers defense that is giving up the 3rd most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers. Jones has been playing at a high level again the past 2 weeks amassing over 30 targets in that span. They have no one on defense that can stop Julio Jones. The only negative is the fact that they could focus on a heavy ground game with Freeman or the game gets too out of hand too early.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8.800) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I was all over Julio and Antonio last week and didn’t get to reap any benefits from OBJ’s monstrous game last week. OBJ had a field day on the Saints catching over 8 balls for 130 yards and 3 TDs. OBJ gets another very favorable matchup this week as the Bucs  give up the 9th most points to opposing fantasy wide receivers. The Bucs’ defense has already given up 17 touchdowns through the air this season, and they have no one who can shadow OBJ. The Saints tried that last week with Breaux and that blew up in their face.

Mid Priced Options

Randall Cobb ($6,800) @ Carolina Panthers might be more of a tournament play than a cash game play given his performance over the past few weeks. Most people will be scared away from him given his play of late and the thought of Josh Norman shadowing him. But Norman most likely wont shadow any one specifically and wont go into the slot to guard Cobb. According to ProFootballFocus, Norman has only played in the slot on 2% of all of his snaps this year. While the Panthers defense is good and the Packers has been questionable as of late. It’s hard to pass up on Rodgers #1 WR who is priced below $7k. I’m going with the thought process that the Packers right the ship and get things going again.

Jarvis Landry ($6,300) @Buffalo Bills is another contrarian pick this week. Landry has seen his targets almost cut in half since Campbell has taken over the Dolphins but his touchdown production has also gone up. This week he gets to face a Bills defense that is giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

Low Priced Options

Michael Crabtree ($4,900) @ Pittsburgh Steelers should be another great play this week given his price and volume in the Raiders offense. Crabtree is coming off of a game vs NYJ where he received over 12 targets and hauled in 7 catches to go along with 107 receiving yards and 1 TD. Carr is playing at a very high level right now and gets to face a Steelers defense that is currently ranked 26th in the NFL in passing yards/game. While Cooper is the better WR, Crabtree actually has received 12 more targets than Cooper and leads the team with 7 red zone targets.

Stevie Johnson ($3,200) vs. Chicago Bears is the default number 1 for the pass happy San Diego Chargers now that highly targeted Keenan Allen is out for the remainder of the rest of the year with a lacerated kidney. The loss of Allen and Ladarius Green only means more targets to go around against a defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing touchdowns this year with 16. Stevie Johnson was the number 1 in Buffalo a few years ago so the experience is there. At his minimum price, Johnson is a must start in a high scoring game much like his counterpart Malcom Floyd. I lean towards Johnson because not only is his price cheaper, but he should receive more of the short to medium passes that Allen was seeing before, as Floyd will still be the main deep threat for this team moving forward.

Tight End Plays

Rob Gronkowski ($8,000) vs. Washington Redskins: Gronk is coming off of a 6 catch, 113 yard, and 1 TD game versus Miami last week. Gronk is expensive but is the safest and most consistent play at Tight end. He offers a reasonable floor given his price with a lot of upside, and the Skins truly haven’t faced a great tight end this year, so Gronk very much has the potential for a big game.

Heath Miller ($2,700) vs. Oakland Raiders: Boy is Miller glad Big Ben is back in the Steelers’ lineup. After being nothing more than an afterthought the past few weeks, Miller exploded back on the scene last week to the tune of 10 catches and 105 yards. With LeVeon Bell out for the remainder of the year, I believe Ben will turn to Miller more often to be his safety valve when things get hectic. Miller’s volume should increase moving forward.

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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The Scapegoat: Pep Hamilton

Yesterday, the Indianapolis Colts decided to relieve their Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton from his duties and have promoted Rob Chudzinski. While the move is not unwarranted, it should be noted that Pep Hamilton was not the reason for the Colts putrid start to the season, but he will be the scapegoat for it. Chud probably would

Yesterday, the Indianapolis Colts decided to relieve their Offensive Coordinator Pep Hamilton from his duties and have promoted Rob Chudzinski. While the move is not unwarranted, it should be noted that Pep Hamilton was not the reason for the Colts putrid start to the season, but he will be the scapegoat for it. Chud probably would have been the preferred candidate for the OC position after Arians left for Arizona given his NFL pedigree, his accomplishments in Carolina, and what he was able to do in one year with the Browns. Regardless, Pep Hamilton didn’t assemble this 3-5 roster which had promise but glaring holes going into the off season. The blame alone falls on the shoulders of their General Manager, Ryan Grigson.

Grigson has been under much scrutiny this past season due to the Colts poor play. There have been reports of him and Coach Chuck Pagano butting heads and not seeing eye to eye. Pagano is on the last year of his contract and will most likely not be renewed if he even makes it through the remainder of the Colts’ season. So how did the Colts go from AFC Championship game last year to where they are now?

Too Much Influence/Involvement with Coaching Staff

There have been rumblings out of Indy that Grigson has been too involved with coaching decisions with regards to personnel. He was supposedly the one who urged for the Colts to switch centers last year and did not give Pagano the freedom to select his own Offensive Coordinator once Bruce Arians left. Grigson was the one who decided to hire Luck’s former Offensive Coordinator from Stanford who had no prior NFL Experience. Stephen Holder of the Indianalpolis Star sums it up quite well with this quote from yesterday.

“Additionally, one of the issues that still exists is involvement by the front office in the coaching staff’s decision-making, up to and including lineup decisions. Grigson, multiple sources say, is still heavily influencing moves on the coaching side, particularly on offense. Hamilton’s performance appears to have been affected by some of those outside decisions, making it difficult to know what is attributable to him and what isn’t.”

Too Dependent on Free Agency

The most successful franchises build perennial winners through the draft and not free agency. Ron Wolfe called it the “Packer Way”. We have all seen teams try to get over the hump and attempt to buy their way to a Super Bowl caliber team (i.e. The Philadelphia Eagles “Dream Team”). It is important to learn from history and Grigson should have looked at his former team and learned from their mistakes.  This past off season Grigson once again neglected addressing the Colts’ biggest weaknesses: their suspect defense and offensive line. He, instead, tried making a big splash bringing in aging and declining veterans like Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Mike Adams, and Trent Cole. While I agree with the Gore signing, the Andre Johnson signing was puzzling given the Colts already had weapons such as T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief , Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Even more puzzling was the Colts spending their first round pick on University Miami speedster Philip Dorsett, when they had more pressing needs.

They brought in aging and declining Todd Herremans to help bolster the offensive line, even though his play had dropped off drastically the past few years in Philadelphia. The Colts tried to make a big splash signing heralded skill position players instead of addressing their real weakness.

Neglect of Offensive Line

Andrew Luck is a franchise quarterback who has been put into danger this season due to the porous offensive line Grigson assembled. While I agree Luck can make an average line look better, he can not make a terrible offensive line look average. Instead of protecting their franchise quarterback, Grigson has put him in danger. Luck has already had a shoulder injury this year that caused him to miss 2 games, and he now has broken ribs. Luck has regressed after showing much improvement last season, and a lot of that is because of the big men up front trying to protect him. He is not only taking big hits but not getting the necessary time to let plays develop or go through his progressions, and that has lead him to force the ball and rush decisions. Luck understands the offensive line can no longer protect him, and it has impacted his confidence and hindered his decision making. The pressure opposing defenses are getting has led Luck to be receive Pro Football Focus’s worst grade among Quarterbacks this season with a score 42.1.

Neglect of Defense

If there was an area of the ball the Colts needed to address after they were dismantled by the Pats in the AFC Championship game, it was the defense. Yet, Grigson again decided to forgo drafting defensive players in the draft, instead opting to select wide receiver Philip Dorsett, which was not a position of need whatsoever. He didn’t make any paramount moves in free agency, instead settling for aging and declining players like Trent Cole and Kendall Langford. The Colts defense currently ranks 29th in the NFL in yards allowed, giving up an astounding 404.9 yards per game. Outside of Vontae Davis, Mike Adams (hurt), and D’Qwell Jackson, this defensive unit lacks playmakers.

Awful Drafting

Bill Polian left this team in great hands, and Grigson has done nothing but run it to the ground. While it is still too early to fully grade his drafts, his last 3 drafts do not offer much hope. Outside of Jack Mewhort, Donte Moncrief and Bjorn Werner, not many of the players drafted the past 3 years have made an impact.

It will be interesting to see how the Colts’ season ends up, given that they are 3-5 and still tied for 1st since they play in a very weak AFC South division. Regardless, Pep Hamilton wont be the last coach to be let go. It is only a matter of time before Pagano reaches that same fate. I am not giving Pagano or Hamilton a pardon, but a coach can only do so much with the talent, or lack thereof, given to him. Grigson’s seat might not be so hot now, but it should be, because ultimately, he constructed this under achieving roster.  It is interesting to think where this Colts team would be if they left Bill Polian in charge.

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: Draft Kings Week 8 Plays

Welcome back to yet another week of NFP's DFS Corner. I hope everyone utilized my advice and plays from last week's section as I was spot on a lot of plays. I was able to double up my investment this past weekend by having my lineups range from 180-210 points.

Let's get into this week by

Welcome back to yet another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. I hope everyone utilized my advice and plays from last week’s section as I was spot on a lot of plays. I was able to double up my investment this past weekend by having my lineups range from 180-210 points.

Let’s get into this week by looking at the teams on Byes and Vegas’s Top O/U’s for the week

NFL Week 8 Byes: Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Redskins

Vegas Top 5 Total (O/U) for Week 8

53: New England Patriots (-8) vs. Miami Dolphins

50.5: Baltimore Ravens (-3) vs. San Diego Chargers

49.5: New Orleans Saints (+3) vs. New York Giants

48.5: Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

48: Atlanta Falcons (-7) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback Plays:

High Priced Options

Matt Ryan ($7,100) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be the only high priced QB I target this week besides Tom Brady in Thursday Night Leagues. Despite Ryan’s recent struggles, his price has not changed much on DraftKings. Regardless, I am going with my gut due to a very favorable matchup at home vs. the Bucs. The Bucs just allowed turnover prone Kirk Cousins throw for 305 yards, 3 TDs and 0 interceptions last week and allowed over 4 touchdowns from Blake Bortles the week before. They have given up the second most touchdowns through the air this year with 15, so I am all in on Matt Ryan and Julio Jones righting the ship this week.

Mid Priced Options

Philip Rivers ($6,600) @ Baltimore Ravens will be staple QB play again for me this week as he leads the league in passing TD’s and passing yards so far this year. They are facing a Baltimore Defense that has given up the most points to opposing fantasy QB’s and have been getting torched through the air. While I am always nervous investing too much into a player going across the country for an early 1pm game, Rivers has not been impacted by that throughout his career. The Chargers O Line is a mess, and they have no running game, so I fully expect to see another 40+ pass attempts from Rivers this week.

Cam Newton ($6,800) @ Indianapolis Colts should bounce back this week after a 3 interception game vs. Philly last week. Newton is the entire offense and gets to face the Colts Defense ranked 29th in the NFL. They have given up the 12th most points to opposing fantasy QBs and over 285 passing yards a game. Furthermore, Newton is the main red zone threat as evidenced by his 4 rushing touchdowns over the past 5 games. He should be active on the ground and air and safely reach his value.

Low Priced Options

Matt Stafford ($5,800) @Kansas City Chiefs (London Game) will be a lower priced option to strongly consider this week. After an abysmal start to the year, Stafford has begun to right the ship with over 6 passing touchdowns and 1 interception over the past 2 weeks. I know the Lions just fired their Offensive Coordinator, Joe Lombardi, but I see that as more of a positive as this will allow Stafford to get vertical more. Stafford should easily reach value facing a Chiefs Defense that is currently ranked 23rd against the pass while allowing over roughly 260 passing yards per game. They also have let up over 15 touchdown passes through the air, and I can easily see Stafford throwing for 2 plus touchdowns this week, putting him safely over value.

Alex Smith ($5,000) vs. Detroit Lions will be another low priced streaming option at QB this week. While not for the faint of heart, Smith should have top receiving option Jeremy Maclin back in the lineup after being held out with a concussion last week. Smith gets to face a Lions’ pass defense that is ranked 24th, allowing over 260 yards through the air per game and has given up 12 passing touchdowns on the season. All Smith needs is 200 yards passing and 1 td to reach value, and I will bank on that versus that Detroit secondary all day.

Other Quarterbacks to target: Andy Dalton ($6,000) @ Pittsburgh, Brian Hoyer ($5,300) vs. Tennessee 

Running back Plays

High Priced Options

Devonta Freeman ($8,000) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been the most dominant player in fantasy over the past few weeks and is facing a Bucs’ defense that has given up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. They are allowing over 108 running yards per game but have steadily improved over the past few weeks due to reemergence of Gerald McCoy. They held the Redskins and Jaguars to a combined 105 rushing yards the past two weeks. Regardless, it’s hard to shy away from the most dominant player in fantasy, but I will say I won’t be playing Freeman in nearly as many lineups as weeks before. I feel like Atlanta should get it done through the air, which Freeman will still benefit from, and he is in a great situation to score TD’s. I just think there are cheaper options that represent better value this week.

Mid Priced Options

Todd Gurley ($6,300) vs. San Francisco 49ers will most likely be in all my lineups again this week. Its crazy that DraftKings still hasnt put him over the $7k mark, but I will gladly continue to take advantage of his price. Gurley has been on an absolute tear receiving well over 70 touches the past 3 weeks. He gets to face a 49ers’ defense that has given up the 5th most points to opposing RB’s and 7 rushing touchdowns over 7 games. Furthermore, the Rams are big favorite which sets up Gurley with a perfect game script for more production.

Justin Forsett ($6,000) vs. San Diego Chargers will be another staple RB play of mine this week. Since Lorenzo Taliaferro was placed on IR, Forsett has been on the field for 80% of the snaps. That is good news as he gets to face a Chargers defense that has given up the most points to opposing backs this year. Furthermore, the Chargers’ defense has given up the second most rushing yards per game this season with over 131 yards given up on the ground to go with 7 rushing touchdowns in 7 games. The matchup and price are there for Forsett to cash in this week.

Doug Martin ($5,500) @ Atlanta Falcons is another “Go” this week as he gets ready to face an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 3rd most points to opposing backs and 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. Martin has been rolling the past 3 weeks, and the Bucs know they must control the clock with the ground game if they want to slow this Atlanta defense down. While I am cautious of this game getting out of hand forcing the Bucs to throw and play catch-up, Martin should still safely reach his value with his meager $5.5k price tag.

Low Priced Options

Charcandrick West ($4,700) vs. Detroit Lions will be a player I roll the dice with this week after breaking out last week to the tune of 110 yards and 1 TD. Knile Davis had only one carry last week, and West took all of the goal line carriers. The Lions have given up 11th most points to opposing backs, but their run defense is 24th in the NFL allowing over 123 yards per game on the ground. They have also given up a league high ten rushing touchdowns. $4.7k for a guy getting 20 plus touches versus a very bad rushing defense is something I will take all day.

Danny Woodhead ($4,500) @ Baltimore Ravens will be in my lineups again this week. The Chargers inept running game has allowed Woodhead to be on the field more this season. He registered 11 catches and 2 receiving touchdowns last week, and I expect him to be highly involved in what should be a high scoring game. While I don’t think he will repeat last week, he is a very safe play to reach 3x value.

Darren McFadden ($3,800) vs. Seattle Seahawks will be a player I flex in some of my cash games this week. While the matchup itself isn’t as appealing as I’d like, anytime you can get a starting running back that catches passes for under $4k it is a steal. Coming off a 152 rushing yard game and just being named the starter, Ill roll with him at his current price point.

Other Running backs to target: Le’Veon Bell ($8,300) vs. Cincinnati, Gio Bernard ($4,800) @ Pittsburgh, Charles Simms ($3,600) @ Atlanta, Chris Johnson ($4,600) @ Cleveland 

Wide Receiver Plays

High Priced Options

Julio Jones ($9,200) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be my highest owned WR this week as I expect a break out game for Jones, who has been quiet the past few weeks. The Bucs allow the 9th most points to opposing WRs, and Jones will most likely be guarded by Johnathan Banks, who is average at best. As I said earlier, the Bucs have begun to right the ship with regards to their run D, so I fully expect Atlanta to get after in the air.

Keenan Allen ($7,700) @ Baltimore Ravens will be another WR I try to get into as many lineups as possible this week. Not only do I expect this to be a high scoring game, but Allen is the main target in the NFL’s pass-happiest offense. Facing off against a defense that has given up the second most points to opposing WRs this year, Allen should have a field day facing off against Jimmy Smith.

Mid Priced Options

Alshon Jeffrey ($6,400) vs. Minnesota Vikings will be a staple in a lot of my lineups this week. Jeffrey should be well rested and ready to go after a bye and should be in for another high volume game after receiving over 11 targets in his first game back. He gets to face Xavier Rhodes this week, who has struggled shadowing opposing WR #1’s this year and should easily have his way as Calvin Johnson did last week. Jeffrey is great value at his current price.

Martavis Bryant ($5,3oo) vs. Cincinnati Bengals will be a very intriguing play if Big Ben does in fact start. If he doesn’t, disregard this selection. But with Big Ben in the lineup, this Pittsburgh offense can begin operating at full force again, and Bryant should be the beneficiary as Brown receives extra attention. In a division game with two high powered offenses, Bryant is an attractive play at $5.3k.

Low Priced Options

Nate Washington ($3,600) vs. Tennessee Titans was a savior for a lot of teams last week as he racked up the points in garbage time. If Cecil Shorts remains out (which it’s looking like), Washington should be in store for 8 plus targets this week as the Houston Texans have been averaging the most plays per game so far this season. The loss of Foster will only make the Texans more reliant on passing the ball down the field, and the volume should be there. Not to mention, it is also a revenge game, as he gets to face his former team.

Stefon Diggs ($4,800) vs. Chicago Bears will continue to be in my lineups until his price is properly adjusted. Clearly the Vikings #1 WR, the former Terp gets to face a Bears defense that has given up the 7th most points to opposing WRs. Over the past 3 games, Diggs has seen 28 targets and registered 19 catches to go along with 324 yards receiving.

Other Wide Receivers to target: Mike Evans ($6,800) @ Atlanta, Jeremy Maclin ($6,200) vs. Detroit, Eric Decker ($5,300) @ Oakland

My results from one of last week's entries

My results from one of last week’s entries

Tight End Plays

High Priced Options

Rob Gronkowski ($8,000) vs. Miami Dolphins is an easy decision this week. Miami gives up the second most points to opposing Tight Ends and Gronk is no ordinary Tight End. With Dion Lewis’s status up in the air and Edelman struggling with drops due to that hand issue, expect Gronk to be heavily involved tonight.

Medium Priced Options

Tyler Eifert ($5,300) @ Pittsburgh Steelers will be one of my staple tight end plays this week as he gets to face a Steelers defense that gives up the 4th most points to opposing tight ends. He’s tied for second on the team with 9 red zone targets and has converted 6 of them. In a game that is expected to be high scoring, Eifert is a good bet to find the endzone.

Low Priced Options

Ladarius Green ($3,000) @ Baltimore Ravens will be another TE and Flex player I use this week. With Gates likely to sit out, Green should be highly involved and offers a tremendous ceiling given his price range. Green had 9 targets last week in which he caught four passes and a touchdown. His price range and upside is just too much to pass up in this pass heavy offense.

Defenses to Target

St. Louis Rams ($3,200) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals ($4,000) vs. Cleveland Browns

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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Retired NFL Players Congress and NFL Sign Historic Deal

This past week, the Retired NFL Players Congress and the NFL were able to finalize a landmark deal. For those of you not familiar with the Retired NFL Players Congress, here is a little background.

They represent the Retired NFL Players and their Widows. It is controlled by and operates for the benefit of

This past week, the Retired NFL Players Congress and the NFL were able to finalize a landmark deal. For those of you not familiar with the Retired NFL Players Congress, here is a little background.

They represent the Retired NFL Players and their Widows. It is controlled by and operates for the benefit of same. The Congress works to develop business partnerships that create revenue to serve the needs of Retired Players both collectively and individually. Its aim is to reduce litigation battles and dependence on charity so that they can focus their resources and efforts on identifying new revenue sources for their 18,000+ members. They give the retired players and their family members a voice that has been missing for far too long.

Below are some quotes from the Retired NFL Players Congress Press Release, which can be read in full here.

Greetings Retired/Former Players and Widows:

We are pleased to announce that the Retired NFL Players Congress has entered into a historic apparel licensing  agreement with National Football League Properties, the NFL Player Care Foundation, and JH Design Group on your behalf. This is a profit making venture that the Congress has been working on for the past eighteen months to generate real income for retired players while supporting the many other benefits/programs that are already in place.

Former Executive Director of the NFL Players Association, Eugene Upshaw, properly advised us before his death that he did not work for, or legally represent us. “The bottom line is I don’t work for them,” Upshaw told the Observer. “They don’t hire me and they can’t fire me. They can complain about me all day long. They can have their opinion. But the active players have the vote. That’s who pays my salary.” He went on to compare our value as retired players to “dog food” that no one wanted.  Mr. Upshaw was correct in his first statement. We accepted what he publicly stated and verified the legality of his statement. That is why we went to work filing the necessary legal paperwork to insure that we as retired/former NFL players have a legal entity that does represent us independently and directly. (Retired NFL Players Congress, Inc.)  Upshaw, then Executive Director of the NFL Players Association was wrong, we have found, on the $$$ value that we have  to the NFL and other companies in corporate America who recognize our contribution to the game.

We know retired players need tangible ways to supplement pensions, retirement income and beneficial programs that the Owners already fund and contribute to both directly and indirectly. This innovative NFL licensing initiative is the first in a series of money producing business ventures planned by the retired players and widows of the NFL who are now the Retired NFL Players Congress.

Our aim is to reduce, and ultimately eliminate the seemingly never ending litigation battles and dependence on charity and focus our resources, efforts and energy on identifying new revenue sources for all of our family. We intend to work toward including our unvested 1, 2 and 3 year men into our pension programs.  Another goal is to raise our pension programs to the same level as that of Major League Baseball. The question is not one of whether or not it can be done, it is rather one of what can we do to make that happen. The Congress also plans to purchase various tangible assets that will directly benefit the Congress and its members.

Our goal this year is to fund and institute, with our earnings, the first of two programs for financial assistance to the roughly 70 former players who are 90+ years old and have received less than we believe they are entitled to. We believe this oversight should be addressed immediately and  we have strong support from the League office and some of the team owners. The apparel licensing program is one of thetools that the Players Congress, working with the NFL Player Care Foundation will use to fund improved payouts to these deserving men and their families. This new relationship between the NFL and the Players Congress is an important step in addressing the decades long missing business link between the NFL Owners and retired NFL players collectively.  The Retired NFL Players Congress is “The Missing Link” and it has the support of all of the living men who formed the original NFLPA and the Players Union back in the 1950’s and 1960’s.

Through our new NFL apparel licensing and sales program, which allows us to manufacture and sell an exclusive line of high-end NFL team jackets in leather, wool, and mixed leather and wool, the Congress will provide income, education, training, and other opportunities for NFL alumni. We are partnering with JH Design Group, one of the nation’s leading sportswear apparel manufacturing and licensing companies.

NFL Player Care will help structure the 90+ year old program and some of our other benefit programs so that we can minimize administrative expenses. Initially, revenues may be reduced because we have a limited product line, and we are getting a late start on season sales for 2015. Nevertheless, we are excited at the prospect of becoming an actual business participant in the upcoming 50th Anniversary Super Bowl. We are also confident that with your support and small membership payment, we can grow our licensing program and
expand business relationships and opportunities, in the long term, with others in corporate America…

Read further at playerscongress.com.

I understand the Players Congress also hopes to improve the current pension program for players that played prior to 1993 to that of Major League Baseball. According to Vice Sports, former MLB Players become eligible for pensions after spending 43 days on the active roster. Once that feat is accomplished, MLB Players are eligible for $34,000 a year pension. Furthermore, former MLB Players are rewarded with a $100,000 a year pension if they play 10-plus years in the Majors. It would take a Pre-1993 NFL player 11 credited seasons to earn the MLB’s 43 day (not game) pension and 30 seasons to earn the $100,000 a year pension. Not to mention, the average NFL player’s tenure is roughly three years compared to the MLB’s 5.5 years.

Furthermore, Vice Sports states that roughly 3,641 former players receive an average monthly pension of $1,656 and 90% of former players also receive $723 a month from the Legacy fund. Those amounts roughly equate to $28,550 dollars a year, which is far less than Major League Baseball players and far harder to obtain.

The Retired NFL Players Congress, which represents retired NFL Players and their widows, will continue to work tirelessly to develop business partnerships that create revenue to serve the needs of the Retired Players.

I hope I was able to shed some light on what a tremendous job this organization is doing and to spread the word to all players, current and retired, in the hopes that they will become members and stand with their brothers who fought for them so long ago.

https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/battle-for-benefits-part-3-dont-make-proud-men-beg

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: NFL Week 7 Plays

Welcome back for another week of NFP's DFS Corner. I hope everyone had a good weekend on Draft Kings and reaped the benefits of using my Week 6 plays which helped me double up this past weekend.

Before I get into this week's plays, take a look at the teams on a bye this week,

Welcome back for another week of NFP’s DFS Corner. I hope everyone had a good weekend on Draft Kings and reaped the benefits of using my Week 6 plays which helped me double up this past weekend.

Before I get into this week’s plays, take a look at the teams on a bye this week, players dealing with injuries, and Vegas’s top 5 totals for the week.

NFL Week 7 Byes: Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos and Green Bay Packers

NFL Week 7 Notable Injuries: Marcus Mariotta-MCL Sprain (Out), Ben Roethlisberger- MCL Sprain (Out), Tyrod Taylor -MCL Sprain (Out), Michael Vick-Hamstring Strain, Justin Forsett-Ankle, Sammy Watkins-Ankle (Out), Jeremy Maclin- Concussion (Questionable), Allen Robinson- Leg Contusion (Probable), Keenan Allen- Hip Strain (Questionable but should play), Jordan Reed- Concussion (Questionable, but should play)

5 Highest O/U game totals according to Vegas

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints with Total of 52.5

New England Patriots (-9) vs. New York Jets with Total of 48.5

Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens with Total of 48.5

Tennessee Titans (+4) vs, Atlanta Falcons with Total of 48

San Diego Chargers (-4) vs. Oakland Raiders with Total of 47

Quarterback Plays

High Priced Options:

Andrew Luck ($7,600) vs. New Orleans Saints will be the only high priced QB I will consider this week. Luck made his first start back from injury last week and played well, putting up over 31 points. This week, he gets to face a Saints’ Defense that is ranked 31st against fantasy QBs this year.  To make matters worse, they have already allowed 11 passing touchdowns through the air to go along with two interceptions, both of which came off Sam Bradford. Vegas has this game pegged as the highest total this week, with the Colts projected to put over 28 points, so Luck should be a safe bet to easily hit 2x his value.

Middle Priced Options:

Carson Palmer ($6,700) vs. Baltimore Ravens will probably be one of my most used QBs in cash game lineups. Not only does Vegas project the Cardinals projected to put up 28 points, but they get to face the Baltimore Ravens defense that currently is 32nd, which is the worst in the NFL vs. opposing fantasy QBs. I suggested Kaep last week vs. the Ravens, and he didn’t disappoint throwing for 340 yards with 2 TD’s on a mere 16 completions. Palmer had a down game last week, but Pittsburgh was able to generate consistent pressure, which is something a depleted Ravens defense can not do. Furthermore, Palmer has averaged over 3oo passing yards the last 3 games, and the match up bodes well again this week so start Palmer with confidence.

Phillip Rivers ($6,500) vs. Oakland Raiders will be the other QB I choose most often in cash games this week. I am still trying to figure out why Rivers isn’t priced better than 9th for QBs, as he has been the #1 QB the past three weeks throwing for over 1,200 yards and 7 TDs. Rivers currently leads the league in passing yards and just threw for 503 yards and 2 TDs (31.1 pts) last week in another shootout. The Chargers offense runs through Rivers as suspect O-Line play has hurt their attempt to establish a ground game. Although the Raiders are 15th vs opposing fantasy QB’s, their defense is still 23rd against the pass. In a game that I predict will be back and forth, don’t question Rivers as a solid cash game QB.

Low Priced Options:

Brian Hoyer ($5,300) @ Miami Dolphins will be another QB I play this week if I am trying to save some money at the QB position. While I don’t think Hoyer will light the world on fire, his mere price of $5.3k provides a lot of value and he once again should hit 3x value. Over the last 3 weeks Hoyer has scored 24.2 (@ Jax), 23.9 (vs. Ind) and 17.3 (@Atl) and all he needs to reavh 3x his value is 15.9 points which shouldnt be too hard when your force feeding Deandre Hopkins the entire game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) @ New England Patriots will be the other low priced QB I target in Cash Games this week. Fitzpatrick is coming of a 26.2 pt game vs Washington last week and found success through by the air and his legs. With this game being the second highest total of the week, I expect Fitzpatrick to be very active. Bill Belichick usually does a great job of stopping a team’s strength, which in this case, is the Jets running game led by Chris Ivory. The Patriots are currently ranked 27th against opposing fantasy QB’s, which isn’t all that surprising considering most teams are playing catch up with the Pats. At 5.2k, Fitzpatrick is a good bet to at least reach his season average of 18.08 points, which is over 3x his value.

Running Back Plays

High Priced Options:

Devonta Freeman ($7,900) @ Tennessee Titans  has essentially made himself a must start over the past few weeks given his performance. I made the mistake of fading him a few weeks ago and quickly realized I should continue riding this bowling ball until proven otherwise. Over the past 3 weeks, he has been the #1 fantasy running back rushing for over 321 yards and 5 TDs. The Titans are also allowing over 129 rushing yards on average this year, which bodes well for Freeman. His heavy usage in both the running and passing game coupled with a game script that favors a RB on a team that is a favorite to win and you have a safe top-priced cash game RB.

Arian Foster ($7,500) @ Miami Dolphins will be the RB in this price range if I chose to fade or diversify some of my lineups from Freeman. While Foster hasn’t quite gotten into full form yet in regards to the running game, he has remained highly active and his volume warrants a high floor ( 17 catches, 161 receiving yards and 1 receiving TD in 3 games this year). The Dolphins have allowed 141 yards rushing per game this year, which ranks 31st in the NFL, but did show improvement last week now that they have fired Defensive Coordinator Kevin Coyle. Regardless, Foster should be highly involved on a team that is leading the NFL with 75.7 plays per game.

Middle Priced Options:

Todd Gurley ($5,000) vs. Cleveland Browns will be in EVERY SINGLE ONE of my lineups this week. There is no need for diversification when he have as talented a running back as Gurley priced at a meager $5k going up against the 31st run defense in the Cleveland Browns, who also allow the 27th most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Gurley has rushed for a combined 305 yards his past two games vs defenses that were both respectively 14th and 16th against the run. Gurley is a near lock to hit 3x value with a ceiling for much more. The only word of caution is that he will be highly owned.

Low Priced Options:

Frank Gore ($4,900) vs. New Orleans Saints will be a low priced RB that I will either take as my RB2 or a flex in cash games this week. Not only does this game have the highest O/U, but the Saints are ranked 28th vs opposing fantasy RBs. I believe this offense will only continue to find its grove as the season goes on, and Gore presents a high floor not scoring below 11 points the past 4 weeks.

Lamar Miller ($4,600) vs. Houston Texans is another great value play this week, and I hope you took my advice and played him last week in a few tournaments. Dan Campbell vowed to make this a tougher team and emphasize the run more moving forward, and he did just that last week as Miller received the most carries he has all year with 19. He turned those 19 carries into a 22.8 point fantasy day thanks to rushing for 113 yards and 1 TD. Houston’s defense is currently ranked 20th vs opposing running backs and has been underwhelming all year.

Wide Receiver Plays

Top Priced Options:

Deandre Hopkins ($8,600) @ Miami Dolphins will be my most owned WR in all of my lineups. Kind of like Freeman, how can you not play Hopkins with the production and volume he has received all year. Just to refresh your memory, here is Hopkins fantasy stat line for the year: 32.8, 10.3, 27.1, 27.7, 30.9, and 39.8 points last week. Although his price finally went up, I have no intentions of fading him until proven otherwise. Even though I do respect Brett Grimes as CB, Hopkins is on pace for 237 targets this year. That volume alone warrants the pick.

Brandon Marshall ($7,800) @ New England Patriots should be in for another very active game facing a Pats’ defense that is currently ranked 26th against opposing fantasy WRs. In a game with a high projected O/U, Marshall should be the beneficiary of the Pats making Fitzpatrick beat them through the air. Marshall’s consistent stat line for the year is exactly what you want in cash games as he has scored 18.2, 26.1, 28.9, 22.8, and 26.1 points this year.

Larry Fitzgerald ($7,400) vs. Baltimore Ravens is another very intriguing option again this week as he faces off against the Baltimore Ravens who are currently ranked 31st against opposing WRs. As I mentioned above with Marshall, Fitz is also the epitome of a player you like to target in cash games due to his consistency and the high floor he brings to the table. Fitz’s fantasy points on the season are as follows 14.7, 40.2, 37.4, 15.9, 16.8, and 17.3 points.

Middle Priced Options:

Jarvis Landry ($6,200) vs. Houston Texans will be a sneaky play this week. Landry has been very consistent in PPR this year, and people have seemed to forgot about him due to their game in London, their bye week, and an average performance last week, where he bailed owners out with a 22-yard running touchdown. Landry is still averaging over 10 targets a game and gets to face a very beat up Houston secondary who will be without their starting SS Lonnie Ballentine for the remainder of the year. Houston’s second corner, Kareem Jackson, is also most likely going to sit out as well. The only thing that has hurt Landry’s upside this year is his lack of receiving TD’s but the redzone targets are there, and I like his chances versus a defense that has already allowed 12 passing TD’s this year.

John Brown ($5,500) vs. Baltimore Ravens is another great play this week for most of the reasons listed above in Fitz’s and Palmer’s write ups.  This may come as a surprise, but Brown has quietly led the Cardinals receivers over the past 3 weeks with over 21 catches, 334 yards and 1 TD. For comparison, here is Fitz’s stat line; 20/250/1 TD. Furthermore, Brown had his big breakout game last week to the sound of 31.6 points thanks to a 10 catch 196 yard day. Brown has hit at least 3x value the past 3 weeks (15.8, 17.3,31.6) and should easily do it again facing an atrocious Ravens secondary.

Donte Moncrief ($5,200) vs. New Orleans Saints will be in my lineups for a second straight week. Moncrief will most likely face up against Brandon Browner, who, on the year, has been statistically one of the worst cover corners according to PFF. Furthermore, the Saints do not generate any pass rush which will only allow Andrew Luck to have his way with a very poor Rob Ryan defense. When Luck has played this year, Moncrief has averaged over 10 targets a game to go along with 1 TD in each game. Moncrief should easily reach 3x value this week.

Low Priced Options:

Martavis Bryant ($4,700) @ Kansas City Chiefs will be another staple play this week. It didn’t take Bryant too long to make a splash in his first game of the year, amassing over 35 fantasy points. At his low price tag, his upside is almost too much to pass up facing a Chiefs defense that ranks dead last (32nd) against opposing  fantasy WR’s. Landry Jones is probably an upgrade over Vick at QB and should have little trouble getting the ball in Bryant’s hands.

Stefon Diggs ($4,200) @ Detroit Lions has come into his own the past 2 weeks. I was a huge fan of Diggs going into the draft this past year, as he was the most heralded recruit possibly ever to attend the University of Maryland. The Terp product got his chance 2 weeks ago due to Charles Johnson being banged up and has seized his opportunity. This week, he gets to face off against the Lions’ 29th ranked passing defense, which is also ranked 23rd against opposing fantasy WRs. Diggs has been called the next “Antonio Brown” from teammates and competition. While he is not quite there yet, his $4.2k price is rather intriguing as he has quickly become Bridgewater’s favorite option the past 2 weeks, catching 13 of his 19 targets for over 216 yards receiving.

Tight End Plays

High Priced Options:

I will refrain from taking Gronk at his current price of $8,100

Middle Priced Options:

Antonio Gates ($5,000) vs. Oakland Raiders will be my staple TE play this week in all cash games. Since his return from suspension two weeks ago, Gates has accumulated over 18 catches and 2 TDs. He has re-established himself as one of Rivers favorite targets and is facing  a porous Raiders secondary, which has been letting up the most points to TE’s thus far.  Look for Gates to continue his hot start this Sunday.

Low Priced Options:

Delanie Walker ($3,900) vs. Atlanta Falcons could be another safe option again this week. While Mettenberger starting might scare some people off, he actually formed a decent connection with him last year. Walker is the top option in the passing game this week in a game that will most likely be played from behind and catching up. You saw what the Saints and Ben Watson just did to New Orleans last week, and while I don’t expect the same fate for Walker, I do think he is a lock to hit 2x value and has a very reasonable chance to hit 3x value as he did last week with over 17 points.

Defensive Plays

St. Louis Rams ($2,400) vs. Cleveland Browns

Washington Redskins ($2,500) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pittsburgh Steelers ($2,600) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Here will be one of my cash game lineups this weekend

QB: Rivers

RBS: Freeman and Gurley

WRS: Hopkins, John Brown, Diggs

TE: Gates

Flex: Frank Gore

DEF: St. Louis Rams

Best of luck this weekend!

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: Draft Kings Week 6 Plays

Welcome back for another week of National Football Post's DFS Corner. Last week, we saw the high scoring return to the NFL and the fantasy community. I chose a bad week to fade Devonta Freeman as he continues to surpass my expectations and has been one of the most dominant fantasy players so far this

Welcome back for another week of National Football Post’s DFS Corner. Last week, we saw the high scoring return to the NFL and the fantasy community. I chose a bad week to fade Devonta Freeman as he continues to surpass my expectations and has been one of the most dominant fantasy players so far this year.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty, here are the teams on a bye this week and some notable player injuries to look out for.

Week 6 Byes: Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Notable Injuries:

Odell Beckham – Hamstring, Justin Forsett- Ankle Sprain, Blake Bortles- AC Joint, Andrew Luck- Shoulder Bruise, Marshawn Lynch- Hamstring Strain, Julio Jones (Hamstring Strain),  and Alshon Jeffrey (Hamstring Strain)

Quarterback Plays

Top Priced Options

Tom Brady ($8,100) @ Indianapolis Colts will be a staple in a lot of my cash game lineups. This is a game I am sure the Patriots have had circled on their calendars since the Deflate Gate fiasco broke last year. Vegas is predicting this game to have the highest O/U with 55 points with the Pats a -7.5 favorite with a projected score total of 31. The Colts are currently 21st against QB’s this season and just let Hoyer/Mallet  throw for 362 passing yards and 2 TDs last week. I expect Brady to be a very safe play this week.

Mid Priced Options

Carson Palmer ($6,600) @ Pittsburgh Steelers will be another cash game QB of mine this week. The O/U is set for 44 with the Cards projected to put up roughly 24 points and the Steelers defense is currently ranked 19th against QBs and is allowing 257 passing yards per game.  Palmer got some early rest last week due to a huge lead, but still threw for 161 yards and 3 TDs.  He is a safe cash game play this week as I expect the Cardinals to keep rolling.

Sam Bradford ($6,000) vs. New York Giants will also be another cash game QB I look to target this week. After starting the year off slowly, Bradford has bounced back the past two weeks with over 600 passing yards and 5 TDs. Not to mention he gave away 2 more scoring opportunities with 2 redzone interceptions last week. He seems to be getting a better grip on Chip Kelly’s offense and has a very favorable matchup against a banged up secondary. This is the Monday Night game, and it is the 2nd highest O/U with a total of 50 with the Eagles projected to put up roughly 28 as they are -3.5 favorites. The Giants defense currently ranks 25th against QBs this year and are allowing a league high 304 passing yards per game.

Low Priced Options

Andy Dalton ($5,700) @ Buffalo Bills will be another QB I target this week as Dalton has been one of the biggest surprises so far this fantasy season. On the year, Dalton has thrown for 1,518 yards to go along with 11 TDs and 2 interceptions yet he is the 14th ranked QB according to price this week. He has the benefit of facing a Bills defense that is currently ranked 24th against the pass and allowing over 274 passing yards per game. The Bills have allowed 10 passing TDs this year, which is the 4th most in the NFL and are ranked 27th against fantasy QBs this year. The Bills’ defense is very good against the run (7th against fantasy RBs), so I expect Hue Jackson to dial up the passing in this one.

Colin Kaepernick ($5,000) vs. Baltimore Ravens is another QB I will stream this week but only in GPP’s and tournaments. I can’t believe I am even writing that, but I am willing to gamble on Kaep after he played extremely well on the road against the Giants last week putting up 2 TDs and 262 yards through the air. But, as well as he played, the real reason I am targeting him is because of how poorly the Ravens’ defense has played this year. The Ravens just allowed Josh McCown to set a franchise record for most passing yards in a game with 457 yards and 2 TDs. The Ravens are now allowing opposing QBs to throw for 287 passing yards per game (ranked 25th) and are ranked 31st against fantasy QBs. This will also be the Ravens 3rd west coast game this year, and I am confident Kaep can get it done through the air and the ground to easily exceed his $5k value.

Running Back Plays

High Priced Options

Matt Forte ($7,100) @ Detroit Lions will be one of the higher priced backs I look at this week as he is priced as the 5th highest RB, which is $1,400 dollars less than LeVeon Bell. Forte is always a solid cash game RB due to the fact that he carries a high floor as he is averaging 5 catches a game and over 20 carries. Factor that with the fact the Lions are currently ranked 27th against the run allowing 126 yards per game and are tied for allowing the most rushing TDs with 8. If Jeffrey and Royal do play, that will only put less attention on Forte. Play him with confidence.

Arian Foster ($7,000) @ Jacksonville Jaguars is another RB I will be targeting this week as he gets set to play the Jags defense who is currently ranked 29th against fantasy RBs this season and just let Doug Martin run all over them. I expect Foster to look better this week as he continues to gets his legs back. He received 19 carries last week to go along with 9 catches so he offers the opportunity for a high floor. I expect this to be a high scoring game as both defenses have struggled this year and Foster is one of the Texans best play makers.

Medium Priced Options

Dion Lewis ($5,800) @ Indianapolis Colts will be in almost of all of my lineups this weekend regardless of ownership. The Pats have absolutely shredded the Colts on the ground their last 3 games having allowed an average of 219 rushing yards to go along with 13 rushing touchdowns. Despite sharing the backfield with Blount, Lewis is heavily involved in this heavy passing offense. He offers a huge floor as he has put up no less than 15 points or roughly 3x his current price.

Gio Bernard ($4,600) @ Buffalo Bills will be another player I look to target this week despite the fact that the Bills are currently ranked 7th vs opposing fantasy RBs. My rationale is that I expect the Bengals to get it done through the air which will allow Gio to garner more snaps yet again and be actively involved in the passing game. He has been the more the effective back over the past few weeks averaging 5 .5 yards per carry while running for 80 yards and catching 5 passes last week against a very good Seahawks defense.

Low Priced Options

Theo Riddick ($3,300) vs. Chicago Bears will either be a punt play for me to save money at this position or a GPP play this week. Abdullah is fumbling away his opportunity to be the lead back, Bell has been dealing with injuries, and Zenner is just part of that committee. The only one with a defined role on this team has been Riddick, who is quietly leading all NFL RBs with 30 receptions. If he catches 6 passes, which is his average thus far, he will already be at 2x value. With the uncertainty in the backfield, he should also get some carries.

Other RB Plays I like: Charcandrick West ($4,000), Duke Johnson ( $4,500) , Eddie Lacy ($6,300) GPP, CJ Anderson ($4,500) GPP

Wide Receiver Plays

High Priced Options

Deanadre Hopkins ($7,700) @ Jacksonville Jaguars will be my highest owned WR this week. So much for the theories of his QB (or QB’s) slowing him down. Hopkins is averaging an insane 15 targets a game to go along with 115 receiving yards, both of which are league highs. Foster’s resurgence in this offense should only help Hopkins cause as defense will have to account for Foster. As I mentioned early, I expect this to a back and forth high scoring game which will only benefit this target monster.

Julian Edelman ($7,600) @ Indianapolis Colts will be another Patriot I have going this week ( I swear I am not a Patriots fan). He will have the benefit of not having to face Vontae Davis as Davis does not move into the slot. So I expect Edelman to be highly involved yet again as he has already accumulated 47 targets in 4 games this year and is Tom Brady’s go-to man. Oh and the Colts are currently ranked 30th against fantasy WRs this year. In a game that is projected to be high scoring, Edelman provides a high floor and ceiling this week.

Medium Priced Options

Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) vs. Minnesota Vikings will be one of my staple plays this week simply based on sheer volume. Maclin has been a target machine over the past few weeks, and I expect that number to rise now that Charles is out for the year. His volume alone should make him a very solid cash game play this week.

Allen Robinson ($5,900) and Allen Hurns ($5,000) vs. Houston Texans will both be receivers I look to mix and match amongst lineups if Bortles does play on Sunday. The Texans defense just let Matt Hasselback throw for 2 TDs and over 200 yards while battling a virus that had him in the hospital last week. Like I said above, I expect this to be high scoring game, and the game script sets up nicely for both of the WRs who are quickly becoming the Kings of “Garbage Time”. At their very modest price, they should both easily reach value.

Low Priced Options

Eric Decker ($4,900) vs. Washington Redskins is a very sneaky, low priced wide receiver this week. I expect the Jets to pass a little more than usual this week given Washington’s good play against the run. Their secondary is still banged up, and despite playing well last week vs. Atlanta, I still think New York finds a way to exploit them at home.

Anquan Boldin ($4,300) vs. Baltimore Ravens will be another low price option to target this week. Boldin is coming off of a 12 target, 8 reception, 107 yard, and 1 TD game. As I mentioned earlier, the Ravens’ defense is in complete disarray, and this is also Boldin’s former team, so there is the revenge factor.

Other WR Plays I Like: Larry Fitzgerald ($7,000), Brandon Marshall ($7,100), Jarvis Landry ($6,200) and Jamison Crowder ($3,600) 

Tight End Plays

High Priced Options

Rob Gronkowski ($7,600) @ Indianapolis Colts is your man if you want to pay his ransom. Despite being quiet the past few weeks since his Week 1 explosion, Gronk is always a threat to find the End Zone. In a high scoring game with an O/U of 55, I think a Gronk spike or two is very much a possibility.

Medium Priced Options

Tyler Eifert ($4,900) @ Buffalo Bills will be the mid-tier TE I play this week if I decide to fade Gronk. Leading his team with 5 TD receptions, Eifert has been one of Dalton’s favorite targets in the red zone. He has 24 receptions on the year to go along with 36 targets and has become a security blanket for Andy Dalton. As I said earlier, I expect the Bengals to put up points through the air so Eifert is a great play going up against a Bills defense that currently ranks 22nd vs TEs in fantasy.

Low Priced Options

Zach Ertz ($2,900) vs. New York Giants will be TE I target in both a mixture of cash games and GPPs. Ertz hasn’t broken out this year as most have predicted, but that might have to do with Sam Bradford’s slow start and the fact that Ertz missed most of training camp and all of the preseason recovering from abdominal surgery. In a game that will be high scoring, I look for Ertz to build off his 7 targets last week and find the end zone. Oh, I also forgot to mention the Giants are currently ranked 29th against the TE. Dial him up!

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 5 Plays

Welcome back for another week of DFS Corner. We are now a quarter of the way through the NFL Regular Season and we have the the return of players such as Antonio Gates and Martavis Bryant to fantasy relevance. I hope you all fared well in a very bizzare fantasy scoring week last weekend. It

Welcome back for another week of DFS Corner. We are now a quarter of the way through the NFL Regular Season and we have the the return of players such as Antonio Gates and Martavis Bryant to fantasy relevance. I hope you all fared well in a very bizzare fantasy scoring week last weekend. It was the first time I hadn’t made a profit all season, and thankfully, I broke even.

Here are the Week 5 Byes: Dolphins, Jets, Panthers and Vikings

Below you will see some of the players I will be targeting at specific positions due to match ups, Vegas predictions, and the value they provide due to their price. These players listed below are players I am identifying as possible targets for my cash game lineups. To reiterate, cash games are best suited for consistent players with high floors. In Cash Games you want to purchase players that will at least hit 2X their value. For example, Rodgers needs to hit at least 16 points to hit value for his $7,900 price tag.

Quarterback Plays:

High Priced Option

Tom Brady ($7,800) @ Dallas Cowboys: Brady and the Pats return this week off a BYE and are tied for the highest Vegas O/U this week with a total of 49.5 and Vegas is predicting the Pats to put over 29 points with a -9 spread. Brady has played possessed all year as him and the Pats look to make a statement to the NFL after the “DeflateGate” circus this off season. I’ll bet Brady can exploit the Cowboys 19th ranked defense which is letting up over 250 passing yards per game.

Mid Priced Options

Carson Palmer ($6,600) @ Detroit Lions: I love targeting players coming off sub-par weeks and that is exactly what I plan to do with Palmer this week. This Cardinals offense has been firing off on cylinders this year and were due for a let down game. I fully expect them to rebound against a very suspect Detroit defense that is allowing over 18 points a game to QBs and just let Russel Wilson throw for over 287 yards and a touchdown with limited options in the passing game.

Phillip Rivers ($6,200) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rivers came out firing last week with over 3 passing TDs and 350 yards (Top Fantasy QB in week 4) through the air against the Cleveland Browns . Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards with over 1,249  so far this season. He gets one of his favorite weapons in Antonio Gates back this week and to make matters even better, it is a prime time home Monday Night game.

Low Priced Options

Alex Smith ($5,500) vs Chicago Bears is a very solid option if you want to save money at the QB spot this week. Coming off a 386 yard but zero touchdown performance, Smith should be able to find the end zone this week at home versus the Bears 29th ranked pass defense that has allowed over 10 passing touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.

Jay Cutler ($5,300) @ Kansas City Chiefs is also another option for someone willing to gamble on Cutler. As much as I hate to say it, I will be playing Cutler in a few lineups because $5,300 is almost backup QB money in DFS and it will only take a touchdown for him to be well on his way to value. I like Cutler’s odds because Jeffrey might play this week and the Chiefs passing defense has been abysmal this year. They are allowing the most points to opposing fantasy QBs with over 22 a game, third most passing yards with 1,244 and the most passing touchdowns at 11. It’s a great match up that provides you flexibility to spend elsewhere.

 

Running Back Plays

High Priced Options

LeVeon Bell ($8,500) @ San Diego Chargers will be one of my top plays this week just due to him being the focal point of this Steelers offense. Leveon Bell has been nothing but a stud his first two games back and I dont expect that to stop any time soon. This week he get’s to face off against the Chargers defense which is giving up the 2nd most points to opposing running backs with over 25 a game. They are letting up over 121 yards per game and 7 catches to opposing running backs. Another big day is in store for the Steel City workhorse.

Jamaal Charles ($7,800) vs Chicago Bears will probably be my one of my staple plays this upcoming weekend. The Chiefs finally return home after a very tough first four games. I look for them to establish Charles early and for him to be effective in the passing game. The Bears are giving up a 100 yards a game and Charles is a workhorse back that gets catches.

Medium Priced Options

Devonta Freeman ($6,300) vs. Washington Redskins is still priced very reasonably after two huge games. I can’t knock anyone for taking him again this week as he been actively involved and the best DFS player the past two weeks. While I recommend the play given his price/upside, I am leaning more to fading him this week. I believe the game script sets up better for a high passing attack against the Redskins secondary than it does a rushing attack. But, yet, all he needs is one touchdown, and he is half way to value.

Justin Forsett ($5,800) vs. Cleveland Browns is a very intriguing option. Forsett finally broke out last week to the tune of 150 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers who have been very solid against the run this year. Forsett will now play one of the worst run defenses in the league with the Browns who have allowed a league high 556 rushing yards on the year. With Joe Flacco’s top option Steve Smith sidelined the next few weeks and no other legitimate options around. I fully expect to see the dump off catches start piling up for Forsett like we all expected when they hired Marc Trestman as their OC.

Low Priced Options

Dion Lewis ($4,800) @ Dallas Cowboys is another running back I will be targeting this week. Dallas defense has been run all over the last two weeks making Devonta Freeman look like a Hall of Famer with his 3 touchdown performance two weeks ago. This defense didn’t fare much better on Saturday night when they allowed the Saints RBs to rush for over 200 yards and two touchdowns.  Despite getting McClain and Hardy back this week, the heart of this defense lives and dies with Sean Lee, who is expected to sit out with a concussion. I expect Lewis to be actively involved and to easily exceed his price tag despite the threat of Blount vulturing TDs.

Todd Gurley ($4,300) @ Green Bay Packers is a very intriguing option this week given his price point. Jeff Fisher finally took the training wheels off Gurley last week and he didn’t disappoint by running for 146 yards on 19 carries and 2 catches. The Packers run defense ranks 31st in the NFL and despite the thought of the Rams having to throw to play catch up, I think Gurley easily exceeds his price tag. If the Rams want to win this game, they must control the clock by running through Gurley and limiting Rodgers’ time on the field.

 

Wide Receiver Plays

High Priced Options

Julio Jones ($9,200) vs. Washington Redskins will be in all of my lineups once again. Although he disappointed for the first time all year last week, I fully expect him to bounce back in a very big way. The game script should be much better this week as the Falcons abandoned the pass after getting a quick 28 point lead. Washington is solid against the run and I fully expect former Redskins OC,  Kyle Shannahan to know who and how to attack this defense that just allowed Bradford to throw vertical on them last week. Washington’s secondary is very banged up, and I fully expect Julio to be the top WR this week.

Medium Priced Options

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,800) @ Detroit Lions I expect Fitz and the Cardinals to rebound from last week’s let down. Fitz will see most of his coverage from nickel corner Josh Wilson. Fitz is the top option on a high scoring offense, I am still not sure why he hasn’t cracked the $7k threshold yet.

Julian Edelman ($7,000) @ Dallas Cowboys is always a solid cash game option. Edelman is a very consistent DFS Cash game player who brings a high floor which is always something you look for when selecting players in cash game. Tom Brady has been targeting him often (42 targets in 3 games) which is very enticing given DraftKings 1pt per reception scoring. This matchup sets up nicely for the Edelman and the Pats off a bye.

Jeremy Maclin ($6,000) vs. Chicago Bears will be a great stacking option for those going with Alex Smith at QB. Maclin is coming off two huge games were he received over 24 targets and 19 receptions combined. Furthermore, he has over 140 plus yards receiving in both games.  Playing a leaky Bears secondary, I expect Maclin to once again dominate targets and safely reach his value.

Low Priced Options

Donte Moncrief ($5,400) @ Houston Texans will be a player I look to target in Thursday night leagues depending on the status of Andrew Luck. If Luck is starting dial up Moncrief who has 3 touchdowns already on the season and should easily exceed his $5,400 price tag.

Leonard Hankerson ($4,000) vs. Washington Redskins is a very intriguing wide out this week. As a mentioned above, I fully expect Shannahan to dial up a large number of pass plays and Hankerson is clearly the #2 in Atlanta right now. I think the former Redskin easily triples his value this week.

Kamar Aiken ( $3,800) vs. Cleveland Browns will be another popular punt play this week. With Steve Smith sidelined for the foreseeable future, someone needs to catch balls for Joe Flacco. Volume is the name of the game so Aiken should easily exceed his $3,800 price tag.

Willie Snead ($3,000) @ Philadelphia Eagles will probably be the most popular punt play this week after becoming more involved in the Saints offense last week. It wont take much for Snead to hit his value, and with Maxwell’s status questionable Sunday that means Nolan Carroll is the top corner with rookie Eric Rowe. Snead should easily get 4-5 balls and hit value.

 

Tight End Plays:

High Priced Options

Rob Gronkowski ($7,500) @ Dallas Cowboys is a no brainer if you want to have a high floor/high ceiling tight end. He is always a threat in the redzone and is always a very solid option for cash games. No further explanation needed.

Medium Priced Options

Jason Witten ($4,500) vs. New England Patriots will be a tight end I use a lot this week if I decide to not pay up for Gronk. The loss of Dunbar should lead to more targets for Witten as Weeden’s go to dump off man.

Charles Clay ($4,100) @ Tennessee Titans will be in a lot of my lineups again this week. He has become a favorite target for Tyrod Taylor and he continues to trend in the right direction with each passing week. He caught 9 passes  for over 110 yards on 13 targets last week and with the status of Watkins up in the air, he should continue to be active. He is also facing a Titans defense that has given up double digits to every tight end they have faced this year.

Low Priced Options

Owen Daniels ($2,700) @ Oakland Raiders will be a very popular pick for the TE position this week. Not only does he support a meager $2,700 price tag but is coming off two consescutive games with a TD. To make matters even more intriguing, Daniels is facing an Oakland Raiders defense that has let up the most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends.

Defensive Plays

New York Giants ($2,900) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Baltimore Ravens ($2,900) vs. Cleveland Browns

Kansas City Chiefs ($2,800) vs. Chicago Bears

 

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: DraftKings Week 4 Plays

We are now in Week 4 of the NFL season and are starting to have a better understanding of how teams and players will perform or be utilized in their respective game plans.

Before we begin to break down the best plays for each respective positions, lets identify the teams that are on a Bye

We are now in Week 4 of the NFL season and are starting to have a better understanding of how teams and players will perform or be utilized in their respective game plans.

Before we begin to break down the best plays for each respective positions, lets identify the teams that are on a Bye Week.

Week 4 Byes: Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots

Below you will see some of the players I will be targeting at specific positions due to match ups, Vegas predictions, and the value they provide due to their price. These players listed below are players I am identifying as possible targets for my cash game lineups. To reiterate, cash games are best suited for consistent players with high floors. In Cash Games you want to purchase players that will at least hit 2X their value. For example, Rodgers needs to hit at least 16 points to hit value for his $7,900 price tag.

Quarterback Plays:

The quarterback position offers plenty of intriguing options this week that vary in price.

Aaron Rodgers ($7,900) @ San Francisco 49ers will be the top play out of the higher priced quarterbacks. Hard to argue, when he is coming off a 335 yard and 5 TD performance. The 49ers are giving up over 300 passing yards per game and are returning home after getting shredded back to back weeks by the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals. He is a near lock for at least 2-3 touchdowns and offers a high floor with huge upside.

Cam Newton ($7,000) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a great option if you are trying to save some money at the QB position this week. Newton gets another division foe that has struggled collectively as a defense. Newton was one of the top QB plays last week and I expect more of the same this week. The Panthers don’t possess many offensive weapons so a lot of that burden will fall on Newton. He should be active running against the 30th ranked run defense.

Andy Dalton ($5,900) vs. Kansas City Chiefs presents a lot of upside with his price this week. Dalton is coming off a 394 yard 3 TD performance and is playing a defense that just got picked apart for 5 TDs vs. Aaron Rodgers last week. I expect the Bengals to continue the trend with a more a pass heavy approach this week against a defense that is allowing over 287 yards per game.

Tyrod Taylor ($5,800) vs. New York Giants offers plenty of value at his current price range. The Bills are projected to score over 25 points and Taylor has been one of the best value plays over the first 3 weeks of the season scoring 15, 29 and 24.  The Giants are one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL allowing over 335 passing yards per game.

Derek Carr ($5,300) @ Chicago Bears offers tremendous value this week and will be one QB I use often while creating lineups. He was able to throw for 314 passing yards and 2 TD’s (23.5 points on DK)  last week vs. a very good Cleveland secondary on the road. The Bears are looking like prime contenders for the 1st pick in 2016 draft and just traded away John Bostic and Jared Allen.

Running Backs Plays:

This week I will avoid paying up for the higher priced running backs. The only one I would consider is Jamaal Charles ($7,600) @ Cincinnati Bengals simply because he is very active in the passing game thanks to “Check Down King” Alex Smith.  Furthermore the Bengals have allowed over 9 catches per game to running backs.

 Frank Gore ($4,700) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars is another intriguing match-up. Despite struggling the first two weeks, Gore showed up big with 22 points in week 3. At home in a game projected to be won by a high margin, I fully expect Gore to find the End Zone at least once.

Karlos Williams ($3,400) vs. New York Giants will be probably one of the highest owned players this week if LeSean McCoy does in fact sit out. This will be one to monitor, but even if McCoy does suit up, Williams should be able to reach value given his price.

Devonta Freeman ($5,200) vs. Houston Texans should be another great play this week simply due to sheer volume, targets and his current price. While I don’t think he will come close to repeating his 4 TD performance from last week, I think he should easily reach his value.

Other RB’s I will look to target: Lance Dunbar ($3,600) vs. New Orleans Saints, Danny Woodhead ($4,600) vs. Cleveland Browns, Giovani Bernard ($5,000) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

 

Wide Receiver Plays:

Julio Jones ($9,300) vs. Houston Texans is a very high price to play but no one has played better or been more consistent this year than Julio. Pay up, he’s worth it.

Randall Cobb ($7,300) @ San Francisco 49ers is probably one of the best values at the WR position this week given his insulting $7,300 price tag. He is the #1 option in a high powered offense led by the best QB in the NFL and is also facing a defense that has been getting lit up through the air and struggling to defend slot WR’s.

Larry Fitzgerald ($6,500) @ St. Louis Rams has been on absolute tear this year scoring 14, 40 and 37 points respectively the first 3 weeks of the season. The Rams have been struggling as a passing defense and I am not missing out on Fitz’s price while it is still under $7k.

Armani Cooper ($6,300) @ Chicago Bears is another great option at a great price. Cooper looks well beyond his years scoring 26 and 24 points the last two weeks after a slow week 1. As mentioned above the Bears defense is a mess, feel confident going with the rookie who has over 31 targets so far this year.

Donte Moncrief ($5,000) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars is a steal at his $5k price range this week. He has quickly become the defacto #2 WR in Indianapolis and is playing a weak Jacksonville secondary and should easily reach value.

Other WR’s I will Target: James Jones ($5,500) @ San Francisco 49ers, Ted Ginn ($3,400) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Mike Evans ($6,400) vs. Carolina Panthers.

 

Tight End Plays:

No Gronk this week means I will be going for a low priced option this week.

Jordan Reed ($4,500) vs. Philadelphia Eagles should be able to hit value this week. Starting ILB’s Kiko Alonso is out for the next month and Mychael Kendricks is questionable for this game. Reed lines up wide and in the slot a good portion of the time and seems to be a check down favorite for the struggling Kirk Cousins.

Charles Clay ($3,300) vs. New York Giants is a great low priced option that should certainly hit value. He went off 19 points last week and hasn’t scored less than 8 points all season. Add that to the fact that Sammy Watkins is out this week and has a match up vs. a defense that has struggled vs. the Tight End this year.

Defensive Plays:

Seattle Seahawks ($3,700) vs. Detroit Lions

Denver Broncos ($3,3oo) vs. Minnesotta Vikings

Carolina Panthers ($3,300) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Green Bay Packers ($2,700) @ San Francisco 49ers

 

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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DFS Corner: What is the difference between DraftKings and FanDuel?

Chances are if you watch TV, you have seen a hundred plus ads for FanDuel and DraftKings over the past few weeks. Daily fantasy has taken the nation by storm, and it's evident by the amount they have spent on advertising over the beginning of the NFL season. According to Ispot.tv, both DraftKings and

Chances are if you watch TV, you have seen a hundred plus ads for FanDuel and DraftKings over the past few weeks. Daily fantasy has taken the nation by storm, and it’s evident by the amount they have spent on advertising over the beginning of the NFL season. According to Ispot.tv, both DraftKings and FanDuel have spent a collective 27 million on TV advertisements.

So if the advertisements have finally persuaded you to give one of them a shot, please read below for a basic understanding of the differences between DraftKings and FanDuel.

What is the difference between DraftKings and Fanduel? 

The first thing you’ll notice are the differences in roster construction, salary cap, and scoring systems. Each site requires you to chose 9 players from at least 2 different NFL teams and representing at least 2 different NFL Games. FanDuel does not allow you to take more than 4 players on a specific team, and rosters lock immediately at the start of whatever contest you choose. DraftKings has no limit on how many people you can take on a specific team, and you are able to edit your roster up until 5 minutes before game time. For example, if you have 8 players playing in the 1:00 games and your one player playing in the 4:00 game is a late scratch, you can edit that one player on DraftKings, since his game hasn’t started yet, despite the rest of your entry starting. That feature is only offered on DraftKings as FanDuel locks immediately at the beginning of the contest for the entire entry.

Roster Differences:

DraftKings: QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE, Flex (RB, WR,TE), Defense

Fanduel: QB, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, WR3, TE, K, Defense

Scoring Differences

You can find DraftKings scoring here and Fanduel Scoring here.

The main differences between the sites are

  • 1 point per reception on DraftKings compared to 0.5 point per reception on Fanduel
  • 3 point bonus for 300+ passing yards on DraftKings and no bonus on Fanduel
  • 3 point bonus for 100+ receiving yards on DraftKings compared to no bonus on FanDuel
  • 3 point bonus for 100+ rushing yards on DraftKings compared to no bonus on FanDuel
  • -1 point for a fumble lost on DraftKings compared t0 -2 points on Fanduel

Salary Cap Differences

On DraftKings you have a $50,000 salary to draft 9 players, while on FanDuel you have a $60,000 salary. Salary is configured on Sunday Nights and is based on that players projected points for that upcoming week.

What else should you be aware of?

  • Do your research!! This cannot be stated enough. There are a lot of sharks out there who have algorithms, enter multiple contests, and even do this full time.
    • Check for weather, high winds/bad conditions can impact certain players
    • Use Vegas to your advantage. Check O/U and spreads for each game to figure out what games Vegas expects to be high scoring games
    • Check good/poor Passing, Rushing/Receiving Matchups
    • Check for injuries; if a starter is going to be out, you can get their backup at a huge discount, and it will be easier for them to hit their value
    • Each site offers values according to their prices. Find those values and exploit them.
  • Know what entry you are entering in. Are you doing a cash game (50/50, H2H), Multiplier (Double Up, Triple Up, Quintuple Up) or Tournament?
    • The entry you choose should have a direct impact on how you construct your roster
    • For example, in cash games, you want a consistent player that has a high floor. In tournaments, you want players with the highest ceilings and low ownership to differentiate your entry.

I have been playing fantasy for the past 14 years and have been playing daily fantasy for the past 2 years. I am an active user on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I have read a lot about strategies and do a lot of research based on matchups, Vegas Odds, and statistics. Each week I learn more, and I will share with you the strategy I deploy. I will begin to provide you with some of my lineups and value plays for each upcoming week.

I hope you enjoyed this article and it provided you with a brief understanding about the differences between two DFS Giants.  Please check back later in the week for my lineups and Value plays for Week 3.

Michael Freas

Graduate of both NFP’s Intro to Scouting 101 course and Sport Management Worldwide’s Football GM & Scouting course. Relevant experience includes shadowing former NFL Players & Coaches/Scouts, Bob Pellegrini and Dick Bielski as well as current New England Patriots Front Office Executive, Michael Lombardi during his tenure with NFP.

Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Football enthusiast.

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