Posts by Joshua Kelly

Fanduel Week 1 Running Backs Preview

We are still a week away from kickoff across the league, but it is never too early to preview Fanduel prices for opening day. Here is a breakdown of the running back plays in Week 1.

Note: Reaching value on cash games = 2x salary. 

An example of this: Matt Ryan is $8,800,

We are still a week away from kickoff across the league, but it is never too early to preview Fanduel prices for opening day. Here is a breakdown of the running back plays in Week 1.

Note: Reaching value on cash games = 2x salary. 

An example of this: Matt Ryan is $8,800, so 2 x 8.8 is 17.6. To reach value in cash games, Matt Ryan must score 17.6 fantasy points.

Reaching value on GPP = 3x salary.

Using the same Matt Ryan example, 3 x 8.8 = 26.4. For Matt Ryan to reach value in GPP’s, he must score 26.4 fantasy points. 

Generally, if all your players hit that multiplier mark, you will be in the money in almost all your contests.

Eddie Lacy, $8,500 – The Packers have absolutely dominated the Chicago Bears over the course of last season, and in Week 1, they are currently sitting at -10 favorites over Jay Cutler and company, according to Sportsbook. Lacy should see a boatload of targets in what should be a blowout. Green Bay should have the ball in scoring position multiple times throughout this game, giving Lacy a prime chance to find the end zone, especially with the absence of Jordy Nelson on the outside. Lacy has an extremely high ceiling in Week 1, so consider him in both your cash games and tournament lineups. 

Jonathan Stewart, $7,100 – In Week 1, Stewart will have the luxury of facing the Jacksonville Jaguars, who ranked 28th last season in defensive DVOA ratings. In 2014, the Jags also gave up the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. With DeAngelo Williams now in Pittsburgh, Stewart is poised to be the three down back in Carolina. In 2014, the Panthers gave Stewart 20 or more touches in four of the last six games. With the perfect matchup, seemingly depressed price, and expected workload, Stewart makes for a fantastic cash-game play. Take caution when using him in GPP’s though, due to the fact that it looks like he is one of the highest-owned running backs of the weekend. 

Alfred Blue, $5,800 – Talent-wise, Blue is a below-average NFL running back, but that doesn’t matter in DFS when your price tag is near the minimum. As a cash-game only play, Alfred will most likely be one of the highest-owned running backs of Week 1. So playing him to block your opponent, a commonly used strategy, is ideal. The matchup isn’t what you’d hope for against Kansas City, but the Texans love to run the football, leading the NFL in rushing attempts last season. Blue only needs 11.6 fantasy points to reach value, which seems extremely likely given the expected workload.

Other plays – Adrian Peterson, $9,200; Jeremy Hill, $8,600; Doug Martin, $6,900

GPP Only Play

Ameer Abdullah, $5,900 – Abdullah busted onto the scene during a preseason game against the Jets with a run highlighted by an ankle breaking juke.

With Joique Bell’s week-one status still up in the air, Abdullah becomes a more and more interesting GPP play. Even if Bell suits up opening day, Abdullah will still see work on passing downs. With recent reports that the Lions want to give Abdullah double-digit touches each game, he makes for a great GPP play, given his boom-or-bust potential and near minimum price tag.

Joseph Randle, $6,900 – The recent acquisition of Seattle Seahawks running back Christine Michael has only thrown another kink into the Dallas backfield. As of now though, it’s Randle’s job to lose to either Darren McFadden or Christine Michael. The Cowboys open the season with a terrific matchup for their running game: the New York Giants. The G-Men ranked 27th last season in rushing defense DVOA ratings, and Randle has the luxury of running behind the best o-line in football. It’s unclear how big of a workload or what percent of the carries Joseph will get, which makes him a GPP-only play. If he gets the hot hand, the potential for Randle is sky-high in a perfect prime-time match up.

Off the board play

Chris Ivory, $6,400 – This season, Ivory will be the workhorse back in an offense that loves to ride one runner. In week one, the Jets face off against 2014’s second worst rushing defense according to Football Outsiders: the Cleveland Browns. The Jets know that the way to beat Cleveland is on the ground and not in the air, as the Browns ranked second in passing defense DVOA ratings last season. Ivory should see all the work he can handle Sunday behind a very serviceable offensive line. One last stat: only the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys gained more yards on the ground than the Jets last season.

Running back to avoid

Marshawn Lynch, $8,600 – In his two games against St. Louis last season, Lynch didn’t rush for more than 61 yards in either contest. The Rams finished last season with the fourth best rushing defense, according to Football Outsiders, and look to be just as stout against the ground game this season. Seattle also traded on of its best run blocking offensive linemen, Max Unger, to New Orleans as a part of the Jimmy Graham deal. Without Unger last season, the Seahawks rushing game took a dramatic dip. With Lynch’s expensive price tag, there are much better options at running back week one.

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Fanduel Week One Quarterbacks Preview

We are still a week away from kickoff, but it is never too early to preview Fanduel prices for opening day. Here is a breakdown of the quarterback plays in week one.

Note: Reaching value on cash games = 2x salary. 

An example of this: Matt Ryan is $8,800, so 2 x 8.8

We are still a week away from kickoff, but it is never too early to preview Fanduel prices for opening day. Here is a breakdown of the quarterback plays in week one.

Note: Reaching value on cash games = 2x salary. 

An example of this: Matt Ryan is $8,800, so 2 x 8.8 is 17.6. To reach value in cash games, Matt Ryan must score 17.6 fantasy points.

Reaching value on GPP = 3x salary

Using the same Matt Ryan example, 3 x 8.8 = 26.4. For Matt Ryan to reach value in GPP’s, he must score 26.4 fantasy points. 

Generally, if all your players hit that multiplier mark, you will be in the money in almost all your contests.

Matt Ryan-$8,800 – The Falcons open the season at home against the Philadelphia Eagles in what is projected to be the highest scoring game of the weekend, according to Sportsbook. On paper, the Eagles have a weak secondary that ranked in the bottom half of the league last season in passing defense DVOA ratings. 

This should be a prime time shootout that involves Ryan slinging the ball around the field most of the game, with Atlanta’s run game being shaky to say the least, as a result of both Tevin Coleman
and
Devonta Freeman having battled hamstring injuries all offseason. Atlanta will need to keep the ball in Ryan’s hands to keep up with the offensive juggernaut that is the Eagles. Due to the favorable and prime-time match up though, expect Ryan to be highly owned. That being the case, stick to using him in your cash games, where he is a safe bet to reach his value, at only 17.6 fantasy points.

Sam Bradford$7,500 – Staying with the theme of Falcons vs. Eagles, Bradford will again be playing in the projected highest scoring game of the week in an offense that will run more plays than just about any other team. In his third preseason game against the Packers, Bradford showed us a glimpse of the fantasy monster he can be in Chip Kelly’s system, going 10-10 for 121 yards with three touchdowns in only one quarter. You also couldn’t ask for a better match up, as Atlanta ranked 31 in passing defense DVOA ratings last season. Even in a what will likely be a run-first offense, Bradford has an excellent shot at reaching or exceeding value.

Tyrod Taylor$5,000 – Who doesn’t love a minimum priced quarterback? Taylor is going up against the Indianapolis Colts, who really aren’t known for their defense. His ability as a runner gives him a higher floor than most minimum priced quarterbacks, and the Bill should be chasing points to keep up with Andrew Luck‘s high powered offense. Having Taylor in your line-up opens up so many other possibilities that usually just aren’t there, and needing only 10 points to reach value in cash games, it’s hard not to strongly consider him.

Other plays- Eli Manning, $8,300; Tony Romo$8,700; Ben Roethlisberger, $8,600

GPP Only Play

Andy Dalton, $7,100 – This pick is not for the faint of heart, but with his low price tag and favorable match up against Oakland, Dalton has real potential. He will have all his weapons back at 100 percent, most notably A.J. Green. Dalton has shown the ability to put up monstrous games with a healthy supporting cast, and in a GPP where you want to go against the grain, this spot is great for Dalton.

Jay Cutler$7,900 – In a game with an over/under of 50, the Chicago Bears expect to be playing from behind most of the game. Vegas has them as 10 point under dogs, meaning Cutler will be forced to throw the ball in most of the second half. Cutler might not be a great quarterback, but with the receiving options around him, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett, he has the chance to put up great numbers in this match up.

Off the board play

Carson Palmer$7,700 – Before tearing his ACL last season, Palmer scored at least 19 fantasy points in every game he finished (he left the game early in week 10 vs Rams due to injury). In a projected high-scoring match up against the Saints, Palmer has a great shot to pick up right where he left off last season against a weak New Orleans secondary. With a likely low ownership percentage and needing just 23 fantasy points to reach value in GPP’s, Palmer makes for a fantastic off the board play.

Quarterback to avoid

Andrew Luck, $9,200 – As the second-highest priced quarterback, Luck is facing a Bills defense who ranked number one in passing defense DVOA ratings last season. Buffalo was able to hold both Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning to under 10 fantasy points last year, and with the addition of defensive guru Rex Ryan as head coach, the defensive projects to keep up last seasons pace. Needing 27.2 points to reach value in tournaments, this is a spot where avoiding Luck will play to your advantage. 

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Tips To Dominate Your Auction Draft : Fantasy Football Guide

Auction drafting is becoming more and more popular every year and is emerging as the preferred drafting method of many people. Even with its growing popularity many players still feel clueless heading into their draft.

Auction drafts, for those of you who don’t know, is a drafting style where every team has a budget to spend on

Auction drafting is becoming more and more popular every year and is emerging as the preferred drafting method of many people. Even with its growing popularity many players still feel clueless heading into their draft.

Auction drafts, for those of you who don’t know, is a drafting style where every team has a budget to spend on any players they choose. A budget is generally anywhere from 100 to 200 dollars depending on league rules. The standard budget for ESPN and Yahoo leagues are 200$, while CBS has there standard budget set at $100. In the draft, teams take turns nominating players to go up for auction in a NFL Draft style format, meaning number one overall in the first round is also number overall in the second round. 

The main draw to auction drafts is the ability to get any player you want if you are willing to spend the money. You don’t have to worry about the team in front of you drafting your favorite player or stealing your breakout star. 

Here are five tips to help you dominate your auction draft.

Tip #1 – Set yourself a budget

This is the single most important tip heading into an auction draft. If you don’t give yourself a budget it is extremely easy to start bidding on the top players at the beginning of the draft. Before you know it you spent 100 dollars on two running backs and 50 bucks on an elite quarterback, and now your stick with only 50 dollars to fill out the rest of your roster. There is a reason every great auction league player sets a budget before going into the draft room. You have to know how much you are willing to spend at each position and your favorite players to target in each price range. 

A good exercise would be to write on a piece of paper the starting positions in your league. For example, write quarterback, running back, running back, receiver, receiver, tight end, flex, defense kicker. I would then allocate how much of my budget I will roughly spend for each starter, and then save about twenty percent of my budget for my bench spots. Here is an example based on a 200 dollar budget.

Position Projected money to Spend Example Players
QB 4$ Matt Ryan
RB 40$ Jeremy Hill
RB 14$ Latavius Murray
WR 40$ Juio Jones
WR 31$ Deandre Hopkins
TE 10$ Travis Kelce
Flex 19$ Amari Cooper
D/ST 1$ Jets
K 1$ Cody Parkey
Bench 38$ Charles Johnson, Nelson Agholor,
John Brown, Ryan Matthews,
Tevin Coleman

Tip #2 – Nominate Players You DON’T Want

When it comes to nominating, many pick one of their favorite player to auction off, but this a flawed approach. The reason to nominate a player you don’t want is simple: Waste as much of your opponents money as possible. Drain their bank accounts dry, so when a player you are fond of are up for bidding you hopefully have more money to spend than your opponents. 

I always nominate Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers first, why? Simple: quarterback is the deepest position so I always target Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning near the end of the auction. Nominating Luck and Rodgers is just taking away 45 dollars or possibly more from my opponents bank roll. So hopefully when the quarterback or elite running back I want is up for auction my competition for these players will be lesser.

Tip #3 – Put all the players into tiers

These next two tips I learned about from CBS’s Dave Richard, and I have found them extremely useful heading into my draft. 

This year there is a seemingly clear cut top tier of running backs that consist of Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Le’veon Bell, and Marshwan Lynch (I could’t fault you for putting CJ Anderson in here). I would pencil those five guys in as my tier one, repeating this process with tier two, three, four, five and so on until I have all the running backs that will be drafted into a specific tier. Then continue this process with wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks. Don’t worry it doesn’t take as long as it sounds. Never tier defenses and kickers because you should never spend more than a buck on these positions. 

Now that you have all the players in each position tiered up, you will want to follow the next tip.

Tip #4 – When you see each of your tiers getting scarce, that is when you start bidding.

For example, if you have five receivers in your top tier when you see there are only one or two receivers left that is when you want to start bidding. The reason for this is because you have already seen three receivers in tier one be bought, so you now know what a fair market value is for those players. This will help minimize the possibility of overspending on a player. 

Tip #5 – Save 40 dollars for the end of your auction 

Saving some of your budget for the end of the draft is essential into building a roster full of depth. By the middle to end of the draft, most times, players are running out of money, which drives the prices of middle tier players way down. You can find yourself getting players such as Chris Ivory and Doug Martin for drastically discounted prices. Saving a good percentage of your budget for the back-end of the auction allows you to have the bench depth that can be crucial during the fantasy football season.

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