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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 8 – Situational Trends
The last ten teams to start 6-0 went 3-7 against-the-spread in their next game.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-8) vs. Dolphins, Packers (-3) @ Broncos, Bengals (-1.5) @ Steelers and Panthers (-7) vs. Colts.
Carson Palmer is better than you think…
Note: Graphic is courtesy of ESPN.
Palmer not only wins games for the Arizona but he also has been a bettor’s best friend. With Palmer as the starter the last two years, the Cardinals are10-3 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Cardinals (-5) @ Browns.
There has never been two teams that started 6-0 play each other. There have been four games where 5-0 teams squared off. The favorite in those games went 2-0-2 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (-3) at Broncos.
NFL Trends – Week 8
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)
|ATL||-7 vs. TB||Matt Ryan is a perfect 7-0 straight-up as a favorite of a touchdown or more against the NFC South but just 4-3 ATS in those games.|
|AZ||-5 @ CLE||All-time, the Cardinals as road favorites are 28-21-1 ATS.|
|BAL||-3 vs. SD||After playing on Monday Night Football, Joe Flacco is 3-6 ATS in his next game.|
|CAR||-7 vs. IND||Teams that are undefeated with four or more wins are 14-8-1 against-the-spread on Monday Night Football.|
|CHI||+1 vs. MIN||The Bears have covered just two of their last 10 games as home underdogs.|
|CIN||-1.5@ PIT||In the Bengals last ten trips to Pittsburgh, Cincy is 2-8 ATS.|
|CLE||+5 vs. AZ||Following a loss by two or more touchdowns and as a home underdog, the Browns have covered eight of their last ten games.|
|DAL||+6 vs. SEA||When not starting for the Patriots, Matt Cassel is an unremarkable 24-34 straight-up and 28-30 ATS.|
|DEN||+3 vs. GB||Peyton Manning is 10-6 against-the-spread in his career coming off a bye.|
|DET||+5 @ KC||NFC teams are 7-3 ATS in games played in London.|
|GB||-3 @ DEN||The Packers have won nine of their last ten games as road favorites and are 6-4 ATS in those games.|
|HOU||-4 vs. TEN||In the last five years, the Texans are 8-2 ATS against the Titans.|
|IND||+7 @ CAR||Andrew Luck is 1-3 straight-up and against-the-spread in his career on Monday Night Football.|
|KC||-5 vs. DET||The last ten “home” teams in London games have gone 6-4 ATS.|
|MIA||+8 @ NE||The Dolphins as underdogs of a touchdown or more to Tom Brady are 2-11 straight-up and 6-7 ATS.|
|MIN||-1 @ CHI||Since 2011, seven NFC North teams have been favorites in Chicago and are 6-1 ATS.|
|NE||-8 vs. MIA||Tom Brady is a perfect 8-0 straight-up on Thursday Night Football and 4-2-2 ATS.|
|NO||-3 vs. NYG||In the Drew Brees era, when the Saints have won two games in a row they are 11-7-1 ATS in the next matchup.|
|NYG||+3 @ NO||Eli is pretty good as a road underdog, when Manning is getting three or more points away from home he is 32-23 ATS.|
|NYJ||-2 @ OAK||In his career, spanning 11 years and six teams, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a road favorite nine times and is 6-3 ATS in those games.|
|OAK||+2 vs. NYJ||The last ten teams to be home underdogs against the Jets are 3-6-1 ATS.|
|PIT||+1.5 vs. CIN||Since 2000, the Steelers are 7-4 ATS against teams coming off a bye.|
|SD||+3 @ BAL||In Philip Rivers’ career as an underdog after a loss the Chargers are 12-9-2 against-the-spread.|
|SEA||-6 @ DAL||All-time, road favorites in Dallas are 27-36-1 (43%) ATS.|
|SF||+8.5 @ STL||All-time, the 49ers as road underdogs of a touchdown or more are 26-35-2 ATS.|
|STL||-8.5 vs. SF||The Rams haven’t been touchdown favorites against an NFC West rival since 2005 and have failed to cover in six straight such games.|
|TB||+7 vs. ATL||Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Bucs as home dogs of a touchdown or more are 1-4 ATS.|
|TEN||+4 @ HOU||All-time, when the Titans are on losing streak of five or more games, Tennessee is 15-23 ATS in the next game.|
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