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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 3 – Situational Trends
“I think God was a Packers fan tonight,” said Aaron Rodgers after Green Bay defeated Seattle 27-17 Sunday night. Russell Wilson credited divine intervention for the team’s win over the Packers in the NFC Championship game last year. Will God like the Cheeseheads in Week 3? Dating back to last year, teams that face Seattle are now 0-11 straight-up and 1-10 ATS in their next game. If this trend holds, Wilson will get the last laugh.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (-6.5) vs. Chiefs.
All-time, teams that start 2-0 and are underdogs in the third game of the season are 53-44-3 (55% ATS).
- Games Matching this Criteria: Bengals (+2.5) @ Ravens and Cowboys (+1.5) vs. Falcons.
All-time, teams that lose their first two games and fail to cover in both contests are 101-83-3 (55% ATS) in their next game.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Giants (-4) vs. Redskins, Ravens, (-2.5) vs. Bengals Seahawks (-14.5) vs. Bears, Bears (+14.5) @ Seahawks, Colts (-3.5) @ Titans, Saints (+3) @ Panthers, Eagles (+2.5) @ Jets, Lions (+3) vs. Broncos, and Texans (-7) vs. Buccaneers.
NFL Trends – Week 3
Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.
|ATL||-1.5 @ DAL||The Falcons have covered against-the-spread in five straight road games.|
|AZ||-6.5 vs. SF||The Cardinals haven’t been a road favorites in San Francisco since 2009, a game in which they lost and did not cover.|
|BAL||-2.5 vs. CIN||Joe Flacco as a home favorite against the AFC North is 6-12-1 (33%) against-the-spread.|
|BUF||+3 @ MIA||All-time, the Bills as road dogs in Miami are 12-17 (41%) against-the-spread.|
|CAR||-3 vs. NO||Cam Newton as a home favorite against the NFC South is 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 against-the-spread.|
|CHI||+14.5 @ SEA||Jimmy Clausen as a starter is 4-7 against-the-spread, which looks good compared to his 1-10 straight-up record.|
|CIN||+2.5 @ BAL||Andy Dalton is 4-1 straight-up and against-the-spread in his last five meetings with Joe Flacco.|
|CLE||-3.5 vs. OAK||All-time, home favorites of less than a touchdown against the Raiders are 59-76-6 (44% ATS).|
|DAL||+1.5 vs. ATL||Brandon Weeden is 5-16 straight-up as a starter and 8-12-1 against-the-spread in those games.|
|DEN||-3 @ DET||In his career, Peyton Manning as a road favorite is 52-35-3 (60%) against-the-spread.|
|DET||+3 vs. DEN||Stafford as a home dog is just 2-14 straight-up, a winning percentage of 13%. The rest of the NFL in the same period won at home as dogs 37% of the time.|
|GB||-7 vs. KC||Aaron Rodgers as a home favorite of a field goal or more is 31-20-2 (61%) ATS.|
|HOU||-7 vs. TB||The Texans have failed to cover six straight games as home favorites of a touchdown or more.|
|IND||-3.5 @ TEN||Last year the Colts failed to cover their first two games, then Indy went 12-5 ATS in the regular season and playoffs.|
|JAX||+13.5 @ NE||The Jags are 16-13 (55%) ATS all-time as a double-digit underdogs and have covered in three of the last four games.|
|KC||+7 @ GB||Teams that last played on Thursday Night and then are underdogs on Monday Night Football are 7-12 (37%) ATS.|
|MIA||-3 vs. BUF||Ryan Tannehill as a home favorite is 5-9 (36%) against-the-spread.|
|MIN||-2.5 vs. SD||The last ten teams facing the Chargers in September are 1-8-1 against-the-spread.|
|NE||-13.5 vs. JAX||Tom Brady as a double-digit favorite is 16-31 (34%) against-the-spread.|
|NO||+3 @ CAR||The Saints are 7-12-1 against-the-spread in their last twenty road games.|
|NYG||-4 vs. WAS||The Giants are 7-12-1 against-the-spread in their last twenty home games as favorites against the NFC East.|
|NYJ||-2.5 vs. PHI||Ryan Fitzpatrick is 35-55-1 straight-up as a starter and 43-47-1 against-the-spread but 9-5 ATS in the last two years.|
|OAK||+3.5 @ CLE||All-time, the Raiders on the road against an AFC North team are 8-18 (31%) against-the-spread.|
|PHI||+2.5 @ NYJ||In the Chip Kelly era, the Eagles as road underdogs are 8-3 against-the-spread.|
|PIT||-1 @ STL||Big Ben as a road favorite is 22-32-1 (41%) against-the-spread.|
|SD||+2.5 @ MIN||No Gates, no problem. Philip Rivers without Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates is 10-3 against-the-spread.|
|SEA||-14.5 vs. CHI||No team that has started 0-2 was a two touchdown favorite in their next game. Russell Wilson is 6-6-1 as a +10 point favorite.|
|SF||+6.5 @ AZ||This is only the second time Kaepernick has only been a home dog in his career. The first was Week 1 vs. the Vikings, a game the 49ers won.|
|STL||+1 vs. PIT||All-time, the Rams as home dogs are 44-66-1 (40%) against-the-spread but they have covered the last three times.|
|TB||+7 @ HOU||The Buccaneers, with Lovie Smith as the coach, are 4-1 against-the-spread as road dogs of a touchdown or more.|
|TEN||+3.5 vs. IND||The Titans as home dogs of a field goal or more are 40-29-3 (58%) against-the-spread.|
|WAS||+4 @ NYG||On the road in the first month of the season, Washington is 35-26-3 (57%) against-the-spread.|
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