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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 2 – Situational Trends
Ten years ago, the New England Patriots defeated the Oakland Raiders 30-20 in the opening game of the 2006 NFL season. The next week, the Patriots failed to cover the spread as three point favorites. Over the last ten years, the winner of the NFL season opener is 2-8 against-the-spread the following week.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-1) at Bills.
All-time, teams that lost by 21 or more points and are double-digit underdogs the following week are 107-82-5 (57% ATS).
- Games Matching this Criteria: Buccaneers (+10) at Saints.
All-time, road underdogs on Thursday Night Football, coming off a short week (played the Sunday before) are 52-64-3 (45% ATS).
- Games Matching this Criteria: Broncos (+3) at Chiefs.
NFL Trends – Week 2
|ATL||+2.5 @ NYG||Outside the NFC South, the Matt Ryan led Falcons are 40-32-1 ATS.|
|AZ||-1.5 @ CHI||With Carson Palmer, the Cardinals as road favorites are 4-1 against-the-spread.|
|BAL||-7 @ OAK||In the Joe Flacco era, the Ravens on the road are 37-29-4 ATS.|
|BUF||+1 vs. NE||In the Tom Brady era, Buffalo at home against the Patriots is 4-9-1 against-the-spread.|
|CAR||-3 vs. HOU||Cam Newton as a home favorite is 14-7 (67% ATS).|
|CHI||+1.5 vs. AZ||There is no place like home, unless you are the Bears. Chicago is 5-13-2 ATS in its last 20 games at Soldier Field.|
|CIN||-3.5 vs. SD||Road teams in the Queen City are just 4-16 against-the-spread in the last 20 games in Paul Brown Stadium.|
|CLE||+1 vs. TEN||All-time, following a season opening loss, the Browns are 15-9-1 ATS.|
|DAL||+5 @ PHI||The Cowboys love the road. Dallas is 8-2 against-the-spread in its last ten games away from Jerry World.|
|DEN||+3 @ KC||The Broncos with Peyton Manning have only been underdogs five times, Denver is 1-4 ATS in those games.|
|DET||+3 @ MIN||The Lions are just 3-7 against-the-spread in the club’s last ten road games as underdogs.|
|GB||-3.5 vs. SEA||The Packers at home in the Aaron Rodgers era are 35-24-2 ATS.|
|HOU||+3 @ CAR||All-time, following a loss as a road dog, Houston is 27-17-1 (61% ATS).|
|IND||-7 vs. NYJ||Following a loss, Andrew Luck is 13-1-1 against-the-spread.|
|JAX||+6 vs. MIA||The Jags are 4-1 against-the-spread in their last five road games.|
|KC||-3 vs. DEN||All-time, KC as a home favorite against Denver is 4-8 against-the-spread.|
|MIA||-6 @ JAX||Ryan Tannehill as a road favorite has a losing record straight-up and is 3-7 against-the-spread|
|MIN||-3 vs. DET||All-time, the Vikings in the first month of the season as a favorite are 30-40 ATS.|
|NE||-1 @ BUF||The Patriots are just 3-7 against-the-spread in their last ten games as road favorites against the AFC East.|
|NO||-10 vs. TB||In the Drew Brees era, the Saints as double-digit favorites are 8-12 ATS.|
|NYG||-2.5 vs. ATL||The OVER in the Giants’ last ten games with a total of 50 points or more points is 6-3-1.|
|NYJ||+7 @ IND||The Jets are 23-18-2 against-the-spread on Monday Night Football.|
|OAK||+7 vs. BAL||Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Raiders at home are 40-65-3 (38% ATS).|
|PHI||-5 vs. DAL||All-time, the Eagles at home in the first month of the season are 28-37-2 against-the-spread.|
|PIT||-5.5 vs. SF||Over the last 10 years, the loser of the NFL season opener is 3-7 ATS in the next game.|
|SD||+3.5 @ CIN||The Chargers have not lost against-the-spread in their last ten September games (9-0-1).|
|SEA||+3.5 @ GB||Russell Wilson has been an underdog 15 times in his career, he is 11-3-1 against-the-spread in those games.|
|SF||+5.5 @ PIT||All-time, following an appearance on Monday Night Football with a road game, the Niners are 8-15 ATS.|
|STL||-3.5 @ WAS||Is there a hangover effect after playing Seattle? Teams are 0-10 straight-up and 1-9 ATS in their next game after playing the Seahawks.|
|TB||+10 @ NO||All-time, the Bucs as underdogs of 10 or more points are 32-24 ATS.|
|TEN||-1 @ CLE||This is only the fourth game in the last four years that Tennessee hasn’t been an underdog on the road.|
|WAS||+3.5 vs. STL||As a home dog, Washington is 33-61 straight-up. The Rams could start 2-0 for first time since the 2001.|
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