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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 17 – Situational Trends
By Week 17 Vegas knows which teams are truly bad. In the last five years, home underdogs of a touchdown or greater in the last week of the regular season have gone 1-33 straight-up and 14-20 (41%) against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Browns (+10) vs. Steelers and Dolphins (+9) vs. Patriots.
The Cardinals and Chiefs are on fire each having won nine straight games. The last 30 teams to win that many games in a row went 22-8 straight-up in their next matchup but 12-17-1 (41%) against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Raiders and Cardinals (-4.5) vs. Seahawks.
Tom Brady and the Patriots don’t lose often but when they do, New England typically wins (40-10 straight-up) and covers (34-16 against-the-spread – 68%) the next week.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-9) at Dolphins.
NFL Trends – Week 17
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)
|ATL||-4 vs. NO||The Falcons are 7-3 against-the-spread in their last ten games as home favorites against the Saints.|
|AZ||-4.5 vs. SEA||Carson Palmer is 7-1-1 against-the-spread at home with Arizona against non-divisional opponents but 3-3 ATS vs. the NFC West.|
|BAL||+7 @ CIN||In the last five years, AFC North teams that have been underdogs of a touchdown or greater to the Bengals are 0-5 straight-up and 1-3-1 ATS.|
|BUF||+3 vs. NYJ||The Bills are 8-2 against-the-spread in their last ten home games against the AFC East.|
|CAR||-10.5 vs. TB||Cam Newton has never lost as a touchdown or greater favorite, he is 11-0 straight-up and 6-5 ATS.|
|CHI||-1 vs. DET||The Bears are 2-7-1 against-the-spread in their last ten games against the Lions.|
|CIN||-7 vs. BAL||The Bengals are playing for a bye in the AFC. All-time, teams that have been favored by a touchdown over the Ravens are 5-1 straight-up.|
|CLE||+10 vs. PIT||Cleveland has lost eight straight as double-digit underdogs against AFC North rivals but the Browns went 5-3 ATS in those games.|
|DAL||-3 vs. WAS||The Cowboys are 1-5 against-the-spread at home this year and are now 3-11 ATS the last three years when Tony Romo doesn’t start.|
|DEN||-7.5 vs. SD||Denver is 3-6-1 against-the-spread in its last ten home games as touchdown or greater favorites.|
|DET||+1 @ CHI||Detroit is 2-18 straight-up in its last 20 games as road dogs against the NFC North, the Lions went 9-10-1 ATS in those games.|
|GB||-3 vs. MIN||The Packers can clinch the NFC North with a win, Aaron Rodgers is 18-4 straight-up (14-7-1 ATS) vs. the division as a home favorite.|
|HOU||-6.5 vs. JAX||The Texans clinch the AFC South with a win, Houston is 15-7 straight-up all-time as a home favorite against the division.|
|IND||-6 vs. TEN||Indy needs a win (plus a lot of help) to make the playoffs. The Colts are just 3-4 straight-up (3-4 ATS) in home games this year.|
|JAX||+6.5 @ HOU||The Jags have been road dogs in 13 straight games vs. division opponents. Jacksonville went 8-4 ATS in its previous 12 games.|
|KC||-6.5 vs. OAK||KC has won nine straight (including four in a row vs. the AFC West) and is 7-2 against-the-spread during the winning streak.|
|MIA||+9 vs. NE||The Dolphins have been underdogs to the Patriots in 25 straight games, Miami went 11-13 ATS in the previous 24 contests.|
|MIN||+3 @ GB||The Vikings can clinch the NFC North with a win but Minnesota hasn’t won in Green Bay since 2010 and is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games in Lambeau.|
|NE||-9 @ MIA||New England clinches home-field advantage with a win, the Pats have won 18 straight as touchdown favorites vs. the AFC East ( but are only 6-10-2 ATS)|
|NO||+7 @ ATL||This is the fifth straight division game in which the Saints have been underdogs, New Orleans covered the previous four.|
|NYG||-3 vs. PHI||The Giants are 2-8 ATS in the team’s last ten home games against the Eagles.|
|NYJ||-3 @ BUF||The Jets can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Bills but New York has lost and failed to cover in four straight vs. Buffalo.|
|OAK||+6.5 @ KC||The Raiders are 14-6 against-the-spread in the team’s last 20 road games against division rivals.|
|PHI||+3 @ NYG||Philly is 8-2 against-the-spread in its last ten road games as underdogs against division opponents.|
|PIT||-10 @ CLE||Big Ben has been a double-digit road favorite seven times in his career and failed to cover in each game (including losing outright last week).|
|SD||+7.5 @ DEN||Philip Rivers has won six of his last ten trips to Denver and the Chargers went 7-1-2 against-the-spread in those games.|
|SEA||+4.5 @ AZ||In Russell Wilson’s career, the Seahawks following a loss in the regular season are 11-6 against-the-spread the next week.|
|SF||+3.5 vs. STL||The 49ers have been home dogs to the Rams 11 times. San Francisco is 3-8 straight-up and 5-5-1 ATS.|
|STL||-3.5 @ SF||The Rams aren’t favored on the road often (just 10 times in the last ten years), but when they are St. Louis covers (7-3 ATS).|
|TB||+10.5 @ CAR||The Bucs have lost six straight as double-digit dogs to divisional rivals but Tampa Bay went 3-3 against-the-spread in those games.|
|TEN||+6 @ IND||The Titans have failed to cover in seven straight road games against division rivals (1-6 straight-up as well).|
|WAS||+3 @ DAL||The Washington professional football team is 8-2 ATS in its last ten trips to Dallas.|
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