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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 15 – Situational Trends
There will be NFL action on Saturday when the Jets travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. The last ten home dogs on Saturday in the regular season went 7-3 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (+3) vs. Jets.
Carolina has become the seventh team in the last twenty years to start the season 13-0. The other six teams went 2-4 straight-up in their next game and 1-5 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Panthers (-5.5) at Giants.
The Cardinals and Chiefs are each streaking toward the playoffs with seven game winning streaks. The last twenty teams to win seven in a row went 13-6 straight-up and 12-7 against-the-spread in their next game.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Cardinals (-3.5) at. Eagles and Chiefs (-7.5) @ Ravens.
NFL Trends – Week 15
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)
|ATL||+3 @ JAX||The last ten teams to lose six in a row and then be road dogs in the next game went 6-3-1 ATS.|
|AZ||-3.5 @ PHI||When Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals are 8-1 straight-up and 7-2 against-the-spread as road favorites.|
|BAL||+7.5 vs. KC||This is just the sixth time in franchise history that the Ravens have been home dogs of a touchdown or more. Baltimore went 1-4 straight-up and 2-1-2 ATS in the previous instances.|
|BUF||-1 @ WAS||The Bills have covered six straight against Washington since losing Super Bowl XXVI to the Redskins.|
|CAR||-5.5 @ NYG||During the Panthers 13 game winning streak this season, Carolina has been a road favorite five times and went 4-1 against-the-spread.|
|CHI||+5 @ MIN||The Bears have lost nine straight as road dogs in Minnesota.|
|CIN||-4 @ SF||In the last five year, the Bengals are 12-6 straight-up and 10-8 ATS as road favorites. Of course that was with Andy Dalton starting.|
|CLE||+14.5 @ SEA||The Browns have lost 11 straight as two touchdown underdogs dating back to 1999.|
|DAL||+3 vs. NYJ||The Cowboys have lost eight straight games as home dogs without Tony Romo starting.|
|DEN||+6 @ PIT||The Broncos are 7-3 against-the-spread in their last ten games against the AFC North.|
|DET||+3 @ NO||The Lions are 2-8 straight-up and 3-7 ATS in Detroit’s last ten road games.|
|GB||-3 @ OAK||Aaron Rodgers is 5-2 straight-up and 4-3 ATS against AFC West teams.|
|HOU||@ IND||Houston is 0-13 straight-up all-time in Indianapolis and just 4-9 ATS.|
|IND||vs. HOU||Indy is looking to win its 10th straight at home vs. the AFC South. The Colts are 7-2 ATS during the nine game winning streak.|
|JAX||-3 vs. ATL||The last ten times the Jags have been home favorites the team went 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 against-the-spread.|
|KC||-7.5 @ BAL||Kansas City is 9-1 against-the-spread in the team’s last ten games as road favorites.|
|MIA||+1.5 @ SD||Miami is 3-7 against-the-spread in its last ten games following an appearance on Monday Night Football.|
|MIN||-5 vs. CHI||The Vikings have won 13 straight as home favorites against the NFC North.|
|NE||-14 vs. TEN||The Patriots have won ten straight games as double-digit home favorites dating back to 2012 but are 3-7 ATS in those games.|
|NO||-3 vs. DET||The Saints are 2-7-1 against-the-spread in the last ten games as home favorites.|
|NYG||+5.5 vs. CAR||Eli Manning has been a home dog twenty times in his career, the Giants are 3-17 straight-up in those games.|
|NYJ||-3 @ DAL||The Jets are 6-3-1 against-the-spread in the team’s last ten games on the road.|
|OAK||+3 vs. GB||In the last five years, the Raiders as home dogs are 10-18 straight-up and 11-16-1 ATS.|
|PHI||+3.5 vs. AZ||Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Eagles as home dogs are 3-12 straight-up and 4-10-1 ATS.|
|PIT||-6 vs. DEN||Since 2004, when Pittsburgh drafted Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers are 58-44-2 ATS at home.|
|SD||-1.5 vs. MIA||The Chargers are 3-7 against-the-spread in their last ten home games as favorites.|
|SEA||-14.5 vs. CLE||In the Russell Wilson era, the Seahawks as double-digit home favorites are 13-1 straight-up and 8-5-1 against-the-spread.|
|SF||+4 vs. CIN||The 4-9 Niners have been dogs in each home game this season, San Francisco is 3-3 straight-up and 4-2 ATS in those games.|
|STL||-1.5 vs. TB||All-time, the Rams on Thursday Night Football are 3-6 straight-up and against-the-spread.|
|TB||+1.5 @ STL||All-time, the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football are 2-4 straight-up and 1-5 against-the-spread.|
|TEN||+14 @ NE||Double-digit underdogs in New England during the Tom Brady era are 3-36 straight-up but 25-14 (64%) against-the-spread.|
|WAS||+1 vs. BUF||The Redskins have not only covered four straight as home underdogs but won all four outright as well.|
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