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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 14 – Situational Trends
The NFC East is a raging dumpster fire as each team has a losing record. The Cowboy, Eagles, Giants and Redskins are a combined 10-20 straight-up outside the division and 11-18-1 against-the-spread. All four teams play non-division opponents in Week 14.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Cowboys (+7) at Packers, Giants (Pick’em) at Dolphins, Eagles (-1) vs. Bills and Redskins (+3) at Bears.
Carolina has become the sixth team in the last ten years to start the season 12-0. The other five squads all won their next game and went 4-1 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Panthers (-7.5) at Falcons.
Cleveland is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft after losing seven games in a row. All-time, teams with that long of a losing streak have covered the spread in the next game 57% of the time (64-48-2).
- Games Matching this Criteria: Browns (-1.5) vs. 49ers.
NFL Trends – Week 14
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)
|ATL||+7.5 @ CAR||The Falcons’ playoff hopes are fading each week. In Matt Ryan’s career, as a touchdown or greater underdog he is 1-12 straight-up.|
|AZ||-7.5 vs. MIN||When Carson Palmer starts, the Cardinals as home favorites are 9-3-1 against-the-spread.|
|BAL||+6 vs. SEA||In his career, Matt Schaub is 2-7 straight-up and 4-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.|
|BUF||+1 @ PHI||The Bills are 6-3-1 against-the-spread in Buffalo’s last ten games as road dogs.|
|CAR||-7.5 vs. ATL||Will the Panthers go to 13-0? In Cam Newton’s career, as a touchdown favorite against the NFC South, Carolina is 5-0 straight-up.|
|CHI||-3 vs. WAS||The Bears are 2-6-2 against-the-spread in Chicago’s last ten games as home favorites.|
|CIN||-3 vs. PIT||In the Andy Dalton era, the Bengals are 3-6 straight-up and against-the-spread in games against Pittsburgh.|
|CLE||-1.5 vs. SF||In the last five years, the Browns as home favorites are 5-12-1 ATS.|
|DAL||+7 @ GB||All-time, the Cowboys are 15-8 straight-up and 15-8 against-the-spread against the Green Bay Packers.|
|DEN||-7.5 vs. OAK||The Broncos are often overvalued at home vs. division rivals. In the last twenty such games Denver is 7-12-1 ATS.|
|DET||+1 @ STL||Following a game on Thursday night and as a road underdog the next week, Detroit has lost 12 straight.|
|GB||-7 vs. DAL||Aaron Rodgers doesn’t lose very often as a home favorite of a touchdown or more, he is 31-6 straight-up and 21-15-1 ATS.|
|HOU||+3 vs. NE||In the Tom Brady era, teams facing the Patriots coming off a loss are 16-33 ATS in the next game.|
|IND||Pick’em @ JAX||The Colts usually beat the Jags. In their last ten games, Indy is 8-2 straight-up and 7-3 against-the-spread.|
|JAX||Pick’em vs. IND||The Jags are 3-7 against-the-spread in their last ten home games against the Colts.|
|KC||-10 vs. SD||All-time, Andy Reid coached teams in December are 40-32-2 against-the-spread.|
|MIA||+1.5 vs. NYG||The Dolphins aren’t very good in prime time. In their last ten appearances on Monday Night Football Miami is 2-8 ATS.|
|MIN||+7.5 @ AZ||All-time, touchdown or greater underdogs against the Cardinals are 20-10-1 against-the-spread.|
|NE||-3 @ HOU||This is just the eighth time in Tom Brady’s career that the Patriots have lost two games in a row. New England went 6-1 straight-up in the next game the previous seven times.|
|NO||+3.5 @ TB||The Saints are 2-8 straight-up in their last ten games as road underdogs against NFC South rivals.|
|NYG||-1.5 @ MIA||Eli Manning and the Giants have failed to cover in five of their last six games on Monday Night Football.|
|NYJ||-7 vs. TEN||This is the first time the Jets have been touchdown or greater favorites since 2011. New York is 5-1 ATS in their last six such games.|
|OAK||+7.5 @ DEN||The Raiders have failed to cover in eight straight games against the Broncos.|
|PHI||-1 vs. BUF||In the last five years, the Eagles as home favorites are 12-21-1 (36%) against-the-spread.|
|PIT||+3 @ CIN||Big Ben owns the Bengals in Cincinnati. In his career, Roethlisberger is 10-2 straight-up and against-the-spread in the Queen City.|
|SD||+10 @ KC||The Chargers have covered five straight as double-digit underdogs winning two of the games outright.|
|SEA||-6 @ BAL||Seattle needs to keep winning, it is currently the 6th seed in the NFC. Russell Wilson is 13-7 straight-up in his career as a road favorite.|
|SF||+1.5 @ CLE||In their last ten road games as underdogs the 49ers are 2-6-2 against-the-spread.|
|STL||-1 vs. DET||Since their last playoff appearance (2004), the Rams as home favorites are 12-20 against-the-spread.|
|TB||-3.5 vs. NO||In their last ten games as home favorites against the NFC South, the Buccaneers are 6-3-1 against-the-spread.|
|TEN||+7 @ NYJ||The Titans have been underdogs on the road in 13 straight games. Tennessee is 4-9 ATS in those games.|
|WAS||+3 @ CHI||The Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games following an appearance on Monday Night Football.|
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