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There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 10 – Situational Trends
History says the Patriots, Bengals and Panthers are all in good shape for the playoffs. Since the NFL switched to a 16-game format in 1978, 16 other teams have started 8-0. Of those teams, 12 won at least one playoff game, nine reached the Super Bowl and six won the championship.
Also, of those 16 teams, 15 won their next game but went just 8-8 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-7) @ Giants, Bengals (-10.5) vs. Texans and Panthers (-4.5) @ Titans.
All-time, teams that have won eight games in a row and are favorites of ten or more points in the next game went 11-8 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Bengals (-10.5) vs. Texans.
The last ten teams to lose three straight against-the-spread and then be installed as home favorites the next week went 3-6-1 against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Packers (-11.5) vs. Lions and Steelers (-4.5) vs. Browns.
NFL Trends – Week 10
(Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)
|AZ||+3 @ SEA||Carson Palmer is 4-1 against-the-spread as an underdog of less than a touchdown with the Cardinals.|
|BAL||-5.5 vs. JAX||The Ravens are 1-8-1 against-the-spread in the team’s last ten games as favorites.|
|BUF||+2.5 @ NYJ||All-time, the Bills are 2-6 ATS on Thursday Night Football.|
|CAR||-4.5 @ TEN||Cam Newton has won eight games in a row but in his career as a road favorite he is just 5-5-1 ATS.|
|CHI||+7 @ STL||Jay Cutler is 4-1 straight-up in his career against the Rams, but the one time he was an underdog (last year) he lost and failed to cover.|
|CIN||-10.5 vs. HOU||The Bengals are 3-7 against-the-spread in the last ten games as home favorites of 10 or more points.|
|CLE||+4.5 @ PIT||The Browns have covered in five of their last six games following an appearance on Thursday Night Football.|
|DAL||+1.5 @ TB||This is just the fourth time the Cowboys have lost six straight, the previous three times Dallas lost the next game as well.|
|DEN||-6 vs. KC||In the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as home favorites of a touchdown or more are 20-3 straight-up and 12-9-2 ATS.|
|DET||+11.5 @ GB||Matthew Stafford is 0-5 straight-up all-time on the road as a dog of ten or more points and 1-3-1 ATS.|
|GB||-11.5 vs. DET||Aaron Rodgers is 18-1 straight-up and 11-8 against-the-spread as a home favorite of ten or more points.|
|HOU||+10.5 @ CIN||The Texans will likely lose in Cincinnat: all-time as touchdown or greater underdogs, Houston is just 11-41 straight-up.|
|JAX||+5.5 @ BAL||Did you know the Jags have a winning record against 11 NFL teams? They also have a winning record against teams coming off a bye (9-8).|
|KC||+6 @ DEN||All-time, the Chiefs as touchdown or greater underdogs in Denver are 2-14 straight-up but 9-7 ATS.|
|MIA||+6 @ PHI||The Dolphins are in danger of falling out of the playoff race, Miami has lost its last five road games as underdogs.|
|MIN||+3 @ OAK||The Vikings are currently the 5th seed in the NFC but Minnesota has only won four of its last 20 road games as an underdog.|
|NE||-7 @ NYG||Tom Brady is just 2-8 against-the-spread in the last ten games as road favorites of a touchdown or more.|
|NO||-1 @ WAS||Drew Brees and the Saints have covered just twice in the team’s last ten games as road favorites.|
|NYG||+7 vs. NE||Eli Manning has never won a game as a home underdog of a touchdown or more (0-5), but he is 3-2 ATS in those games.|
|NYJ||-2.5 vs. BUF||All-time, as home favorites against the Bills, the Jets are 8-16 against-the-spread.|
|OAK||-3 vs. MIN||Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, the Raiders are 17-27-1 ATS as home favorites.|
|PHI||-6 vs. MIA||All-time, the Eagles as home favorites against the AFC are 22-38-1 ATS.|
|PIT||-4.5 vs. CLE||In nearly 40 years of football, the Steelers have only lost three times as home favorites against the Browns – the last time was in 2003.|
|SEA||-3 vs. AZ||The Seahawks are 16-9-2 ATS as home favorites with Russell Wilson.|
|STL||-7 vs. CHI||In the last 20 games that the Rams have been favored by a touchdown or more, St. Louis is 6-14 against-the-spread.|
|TB||-1.5 vs. DAL||The Bucs are just 2-8 against-the-spread in the last ten games as favorites.|
|TEN||+4.5 vs. CAR||All-time, the Titans as home underdogs are 58-44-3 (57%) against-the-spread.|
|WAS||+1 vs. NO||Kirk Cousins is 5-12 straight-up as a starter and 7-10 ATS.|
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