powered byTrend Machine
There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games – as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL – is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.
Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.
Week 1 – Situational Trends
Is there a Super Bowl hangover? In the last ten years, the runner-up in the Super Bowl has gone 2-7-1 against-the-spread in Week 1.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Seahawks (-3.5) @ Rams.
Blindly betting home dogs used to be profitable but since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, home dogs are 541-544-27 (49%) against-the-spread.
- Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons (+3) vs. Eagles, Bills (+2.5) vs. Colts, Bears (+5) vs. Packers, Jaguars (+3) vs. Panthers, Raiders (+3) vs. Bengals, 49ers (+2.5) vs. Vikings, Rams (+3.5) vs. Seahawks and Redskins (+3.5) vs. Dolphins.
Last year, in games with totals of great than 50 points, the under went 46-36 (57%).
- Games Matching this Criteria: Falcons vs. Eagles (54.5) and Cowboys vs. Giants (51).
NFL Trends – Week 1
Note: In our data “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.
|ATL||+3 vs. PHI||Matt Ryan as a home dog is 9-5-1 (64% ATS).|
|AZ||-2.5 vs. NO||When healthy, Carson Palmer has led Arizona to a 16-5-1 (76%) record against-the-spread.|
|BAL||+5 @ DEN||Against the Peyton Manning led Broncos, road dogs of a touchdown or less are 3-7-2 against-the-spread in Mile High.|
|BUF||+2.5 vs. IND||Rex Ryan, the Bills new Head Coach, is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog.|
|CAR||-3 @ JAX||Cam Newton has won back-to-back NFC South titles but he is just 3-5-1 ATS as a road favorite in his career.|
|CHI||+5 vs. GB||All-time, the Bears as home dogs to the Packers are 4-13 straight-up and 6-11 (35%) against-the-spread.|
|CIN||-3 @ OAK||Cincinnati has failed to cover in seven straight games as road favorites.|
|CLE||+3 @ NYJ||In the last two years, in games started, Josh McCown is 3-13 straight-up and 6-10 against-the-spread.|
|DAL||-5.5 vs. NYG||Tony Romo is 7-3 against-the-spread in season openers.|
|DEN||-5 vs. BAL||Demaryius Thomas has 100 yards or a TD in 26 of Denver’s last 30 games. The Broncos are 16-13-1 (55% ATS) in those games.|
|DET||+3 @ SD||Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started every game, Detroit is 4-14 straight-up and 7-11 (39%) against-the-spread as road dogs.|
|GB||-5 @ CHI||Since becoming the starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers when facing the Bears is 12-3 (80%) against-the-spread.|
|HOU||-2 vs. KC||Since 2011, when Houston drafted JJ Watt, the Texans are 23-18-1 (56%) against-the-spread as a favorite.|
|IND||-2.5 @ BUF||Andrew Luck as a road favorite is 8-3-1 (73%) against-the-spread.|
|JAX||+3 vs. CAR||In the last five years, the Jaguars have been home dogs in 31 out of 40 games. Jacksonville is 9-22 (29%) ATS in those games.|
|KC||+2 @ HOU||In two seasons in Kansas City, Alex Smith is 13-4 (77%) against-the-spread away from the friendly confines of Arrowhead.|
|MIA||-3.5 @ WAS||Ryan Tannehill as a road favorite is 2-5 against-the-spread and has a losing record straight-up.|
|MIN||-2.5 @ SF||The Viking have only been a road favorite twice since 2011, Minnesota is 0-2 against-the-spread in those games.|
|NE||-3.5 vs. PIT||With Tom Brady, New England is 135-97-6 (58%) ATS. Without him, all-time, the Patriots are 192-203-10 (49%) ATS.|
|NO||+2.5 @ AZ||In the last two years, once Carson Palmer came to the desert, road dogs in Arizona are 1-8-1 against-the-spread.|
|NYG||+5.5 @ DAL||All-time, the Giants as road dogs in Dallas are 8-19 straight-up and 11-16 against-the-spread.|
|NYJ||-3 vs. CLE||Ryan Fitzpatrick almost had as many wins against-the-spread (6 in 12 starts) as the Jets (7 wins ATS) did in a full season.|
|OAK||+3 vs. CIN||Jack Del Rio, the Raiders new head coach, is 67-73-2 against-the-spread all-time.|
|PHI||-3 @ ATL||All-time, Sam Bradford is 24-24-1 ATS. In 49 career games he has only been a road favorite once and did not cover.|
|PIT||+3.5 @ NE||In his career, Ben Roethlisberger is 8-3 straight-up but 5-6 against-the-spread in Week 1.|
|SD||-3 vs. DET||In Philip Rivers career, the Chargers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 32-26-1 (55%) against-the-spread.|
|SEA||-3.5 @ STL||Russell Wilson as a favorite of a field goal or more on the road is 10-4 straight-up and 7-6-1 against-the-spread.|
|SF||+2.5 vs. MIN||In Colin Kaepernick’s career, the 49ers have never been a home underdog. Until now.|
|STL||+3.5 vs. SEA||All-time in Week 1, the Rams are 12-24-1 (33%) against-the-spread and are just 2-8 ATS in the last ten seasons.|
|TB||-3 vs. TEN||The last ten quarterbacks taken with the first overall pick are 1-8-1 against-the-spread in their first career start.|
|TEN||+3 @ TB||The Titans went 2-14 straight-up last year and 4-12 against-the-spread. Of course that was without the No. 2 pick Marcus Mariota.|
|WAS||+3.5 vs. MIA||As a starter, Kirk Cousins is 2-7 straight-up but 5-4 against-the-spread|