by Joe Fortenbaugh
October 10, 02013
Playing Baylor “unofficially” each week has been good luck for us, so why not go back to the well one more time this Saturday? The Bears are currently 17-point favorites for their conference showdown with Kansas State and judging by the way Baylor has played offense over the last few weeks, that number could be covered by halftime.
Last week: 4-1
Season: 23-11 (.676)
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#25 Missouri Tigers (5-0, 2-0 road) at #7 Georgia Bulldogs (4-1, 3-0 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Georgia -11
Current: Georgia -9
Missouri in 2013: 4-0-1 ATS, 3-2 to the OVER
Georgia in 2013: 1-3-1 ATS, 5-0 to the OVER
Quarterback Aaron Murray is healthy, but the same cannot be said about the rest of the Georgia offense.
Analysis: The Bulldogs have been burning the candle at both ends as of late, slugging out a 44-41 victory over LSU two weeks ago and a 34-31 overtime win against Tennessee last Saturday. However, those triumphs came with a heavy price tag in the form of notable injuries to Georgia’s wide receiving and running back units. Meanwhile, Missouri has quietly put together a strong season that features four covers in five outings thanks to an offense that ranks eighth in the nation in scoring (46.6 pts/gm). The early money supports our position here, as this line has already been bet through the key number of 10 down to -9. Note that Missouri is 10-4 ATS over their last 14 games played on a grass surface.
Notable Trends: Missouri is 5-1 ATS over their last six road games while Georgia is 1-3-1 ATS over their last five games played on grass.
Pick: Missouri (+9)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-1, 0-0 road) at Purdue Boilermakers (1-4, 1-2 home)
When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Nebraska -14.5
Current: Nebraska -14
Nebraska in 2013: 3-2 ATS, 3-2 to the OVER
Purdue in 2013: 1-4 ATS, 3-2 to the OVER
Analysis: Purdue is coming off a bye, which is about the only thing the Boilermakers have going for them Saturday against a Nebraska team that, after watching the wheels come off against UCLA on September 14 (Lost 41-21), has rebounded nicely with blowout wins over San Diego State (59-20) and Illinois (39-19). Quarterback Taylor Martinez is expected to return to action for the Cornhuskers this week, where he’ll face a Boilermakers squad that is 3-7-1 ATS over their last 11 conference games and 1-5 ATS over their last six games overall.
Notable Trends: Nebraska is 4-1 ATS over their last five road games against teams with a losing home record while Purdue is 0-5 ATS over their last five games against teams with a winning record.
Pick: Nebraska (-14)
Kent State Golden Flashes (2-4, 1-2 road) at Ball State Cardinals (5-1, 3-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:00pm ET
Open: Ball State -11
Current: Ball State -14
Kent State in 2013: 2-4 ATS, 4-2 to the UNDER
Ball State in 2013: 5-1 ATS, 4-2 to the OVER
Analysis: This is a revenge spot for the Cardinals, who fell 45-43 at Kent State last September. Pete Lembo’s Ball State squad has been an ATM machine for us so far this season, cashing in five of six contests with a 19-7 ATS mark over their last 26 games overall. The Cardinals have the MAC championship in their sights and after dismantling Virginia 48-27 on the road last Saturday, it’s time to get back down to conference business (6-1 ATS over last seven conference games). Take note that the home team is 4-0 ATS over the last four meetings between these two schools.
Notable Trends: Kent State is 6-13-1 ATS over their last 20 games following a straight-up loss while Ball State is 14-4 ATS over their last 18 games following an against the spread win.
Pick: Ball State (-14)
#17 Florida Gators (4-1, 1-1 road) at #10 LSU Tigers (5-1, 3-0 home)
When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: LSU -6.5
Current: LSU -7
Florida in 2013: 2-3 ATS, 3-1-1 to the UNDER
LSU in 2013: 3-2-1 ATS, 6-0 to the OVER
ICONLes Miles and the Tigers are out for revenge Saturday against the Gators.
Analysis: After dropping a 44-41 heartbreaker at Georgia two weeks ago, the Tigers rebounded nicely with a 59-26 road win over Mississippi State. LSU now returns home where they are 14-1 straight-up over their last 15 conference games. Note that while Florida is always capable of posting a flashy record, the Gators are just 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games overall and 3-7 ATS over their last ten games played on grass. LSU’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but the offense has kicked it up a couple notches in 2013 and currently ranks ninth in the country in scoring (45.5 pts/gm). This is a revenge spot for LSU, who lost 14-6 in Gainesville last season.
Notable Trends: Florida is 2-6 ATS over their last eight games against teams with a winning record while LSU is 9-4 ATS over their last 13 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.
Pick: LSU (-7)
Bowling Green Falcons (5-1, 1-1 road) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-3, 2-1 home)
When: Saturday, 7:30pm ET
Open: Mississippi State -8.5
Current: Mississippi State -10.5
Bowling Green in 2013: 4-2 ATS, 5-1 to the UNDER
Mississippi State in 2013: 3-2 ATS, 3-2 to the OVER
Analysis: Dig further into Bowling Green’s 5-1 record and you’ll find a team whose five victories have come against opponents (Tulsa, Kent State, Murray State, Akron, UMass) that have posted a combined record of 8-20 so far this season. But Bowling Green’s one loss? Well, that came in the form of a 42-10 beat down at Indiana back on September 14. Taking out Akron at home is one thing, beating an SEC school like Mississippi State on the road is another. This is a big step up in class for the Falcons.
Notable Trends: Bowling Green is 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games overall while Mississippi State is 11-4 ATS over their last 15 home games.
Pick: Mississippi State (-10.5)
California Golden Bears (1-4, 0-1 road) at #11 UCLA Bruins (4-0, 2-0 home)
When: Saturday, 10:30pm ET
Open: UCLA -23
Current: UCLA -24.5
California in 2013: 0-5 ATS, 3-1-1 to the OVER
UCLA in 2013: 4-0 ATS, 2-2 to the OVER
Hundley takes a QB rating of 158.5 into Saturday's showdown with Cal.
Analysis: This is a revenge spot for UCLA, who was stunned 43-17 at California last October. Expect Bruins coach Jim Mora, Jr., who is 12-6 ATS since landing in Los Angeles and 4-0 ATS this season, to harp on that all week during practice. California is streaking in their own right, but not in a positive way. The Golden Bears have failed to cover the number in nine straight contests dating back to last season and are 0-7 ATS over their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Look for Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley to pad his ever-growing Heisman Trophy resume this Saturday.
Notable Trends: California is 1-4 ATS over their last five road games while UCLA is 4-1 ATS over their last five games following a straight-up win.
Pick: UCLA (-24.5)
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