by Joe Fortenbaugh
December 11, 02012
Of the 15 NFL games that are currently posted over at LVH, 13 have seen either a half point of movement or none at all approximately 48 hours after hitting the board. That means this week’s early breakdown will be limited to just three key games.
We’ll post another market report as we get closer to kickoff, but for now, here’s a rundown on what’s taking place in Vegas as we enter Week 15.
CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.
Seattle Seahawks (8-5, 2-5 road) at Buffalo Bills (5-8, 3-3 home)
When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: Seattle -5.5
Current: Seattle -5
Analysis: While it’s sitting at -5 over at the LVH, MGM currently has this line posted as low as Seattle -4.5. Some early money has come in on the Bills despite the fact that the Seahawks absolutely dismantled the Arizona Cardinals 58-0 roughly 48 hours ago. Why? This is a long travel date for Seattle against a non-conference opponent one week before a critical divisional showdown with the San Francisco 49ers. In addition, the Seahawks are just 7-21-1 ATS over their last 29 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous contest. On the flip side, the Bills are 4-1 ATS over their last five contests following a straight-up loss. Remember, for as rock-solid as the Seahawks have been at home this season (6-0 ATS), Pete Carroll’s crew is just 3-4 ATS on the road.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, 3-4 road) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6, 3-3 home)
When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Dallas -1
Current: Pittsburgh -1.5
Analysis: The Steelers are 11-2 ATS over their last 13 games following a straight-up loss while the Cowboys are just 5-17 ATS over their last 22 home games. That previous sentence is reason enough to understand why the early action has come in on the Black and Yellow. Pittsburgh has a critical divisional matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals next week while Dallas will play host to New Orleans in Week 15, but at 7-6, neither team can afford to get caught looking ahead at this stage in the season. You’ve got to expect a big effort from Mike Tomlin’s team this Sunday after they were embarrassed at home by the Chargers in Week 14.
Note: Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant (33-525-7 over his last five games) suffered a fractured left index finger last Sunday and could very well be ruled out for Week 15.
San Francisco 49ers (9-3-1, 4-2 road) at New England Patriots (10-3, 5-1 home)
When: Sunday, 8:20pm ET
Open: New England -4.5
Current: New England -5.5
Analysis: If you like the Patriots in this spot, the MGM is currently offering the best price at NEP -3.5, but we have a feeling that number is going to be adjusted in a hurry. The early money has come in on Tom Brady and Bill Belichick for this Sunday night showdown and for good reason. San Francisco has to travel all the way across the country for a non-conference matchup one week before a crucial divisional road game at Seattle. In addition, the Patriots have been stellar at home in the month of December over the last few years and Belichick is well known for giving rookie quarterbacks all they can handle. Take note that the Niners are 4-9-1 ATS over their last 14 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game, while the Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS over their last four Sunday games that have come one week after playing on Monday night.
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