Johnny Manziel and the Texas A&M Aggies rank fifth in the NCAA in scoring this season (49.2 pts/gm) and have topped the 50-point barrier in each of their last three outings. Known primarily for being a defensive-minded football team, LSU has given up an average of 23.5 points per game in 2013 (39th in NCAA), but has made up for it on the offensive side of the football by dropping an average of 37.9 points per game this season (21st in NCAA).

Johnny ManzielWe're anticipating a shootout Saturday in Baton Rouge.

Saturday’s game between the Aggies and Tigers is calling for a 60 percent chance of rain with temperatures around 59 degrees, which may be one reason why this game opened with a lower-than-expected total of 70 points. Based on how each team’s offense and defense has faired this season, we fully intend to back the over in Baton Rouge on Saturday.

Last week: 4-1

Season: 42-25-1 (.626)

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.

East Carolina Pirates (8-2, 3-1 road) at North Carolina State Wolfpack (3-7, 3-3 home)

When: Saturday, 12:30pm ET
Open: East Carolina -6
Current: East Carolina -6

East Carolina in 2013: 5-5 ATS, 6-4 to the OVER
North Carolina State in 2013: 4-6 ATS, 6-4 to the UNDER

Analysis: Two teams headed in opposite directions as the East Carolina Pirates, winners of four straight by an average of 36.2 points per game, travel to North Carolina State to play a Wolfpack team that has dropped six straight by an average of 17.3 points per game. These two share a common opponent in North Carolina, who East Carolina beat at home 55-31 and N.C. State lost to at home 27-19. The Pirates have been on cruise control over the last month of the season while the Wolfpack return home after back-to-back road drubbings courtesy of Duke (38-20) and Boston College (38-21). Note that N.C. State has covered the number just once over their last six games. Anything less than a touchdown here looks really tasty.

Notable Trends: East Carolina is 4-1 ATS over their last five games against teams with a losing record while North Carolina State is 1-4 ATS over their last five games following a straight-up loss.

Pick: East Carolina (-6)

Idaho Vandals (1-9, 0-5 road) at #2 Florida State Seminoles (10-0, 6-0 home)

When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: First Half line unavailable
Current: First Half line unavailable

Idaho in 2013: 3-7 ATS, 6-4 to the OVER
Florida State in 2013: 8-2 ATS, 9-1 to the OVER

Analysis: Here are the halftime scores for each of Florida State’s last five games:

Jameis WinstonWinston and the 'Noles should thrash the Vandels during the first half on Saturday.

November 16: 38-0 vs. Syracuse
November 9: 42-0 at Wake Forest
November 2: 21-14 vs. Miami
October 26: 42-0 vs. North Carolina State
October 19: 27-7 at Clemson

Idaho is much worse than every single one of those teams and is making a hellish road trip all the way across the country for nothing more than a paycheck. Perhaps the Seminoles decide to rest their starters in the second half with a revenge game at Florida on deck, but rest assured, the first half will be business as usual.

Notable Trends: Idaho is 1-4 ATS over their last four road games while Florida State is 6-1 ATS over their last seven home games.

Pick: Florida State first half (at opening number)

#5 Oregon Ducks (9-1, 3-1 road) at Arizona Wildcats (6-4, 3-2 home)

When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Oregon -17.5
Current: Oregon -20

Oregon in 2013: 7-3 ATS, 6-4 to the OVER
Arizona in 2013: 4-6 ATS, 7-3 to the UNDER

Analysis: The Ducks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two outings, beginning with that 26-20 heartbreaking loss at Stanford. But Oregon bounced back the following week to smash Utah 44-21 and, while not covering the 28.5-point closing number, looked relatively sharp in what many considered to be a letdown spot. With the Cardinal falling at USC last Saturday, the Ducks regain control of their own destiny, giving them every reason to throttle a Wildcats team that is 2-6 ATS over their last eight home games, 2-6 ATS over their last eight games overall and 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games played on a grass surface. Oregon, on the other hand, is 14-4 ATS over their last 18 games overall, 12-2 ATS over their last 14 road games and 10-1 ATS over their last 11 games played on a grass surface. At less than three touchdowns, we’re big Oregon backers in this spot.

Notable Trends: Oregon is 11-3 ATS over their last 14 games against teams with a winning record while Arizona is 1-6 ATS over their last seven games against teams with a winning record.

Pick: Oregon (-20)

BYU Cougars (7-3, 2-2 road) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-3, 5-1 home)

When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Notre Dame -1
Current: PK

BYU in 2013: 5-4-1 ATS, 6-4 to the UNDER
Notre Dame in 2013: 3-6-1 ATS, 5-5 to the OVER

Brian KellyKelly and the Irish have an extra week to prepare for a better than advertised BYU football team.

Analysis: BYU took a 14-10 lead into the fourth quarter at South Bend last October, only to fall 17-14 to an Irish team that went on to play for the National Championship. Don’t think for one second that the Cougars have forgotten about that game. BYU is a solid football team that has won six of their last seven contests (lost 27-17 at #19 Wisconsin on November 9), is 4-1 ATS over their last five road games and 19-7 ATS over their last 26 games against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is coming off a 28-21 loss at 5-5 Pittsburgh, is 3-7-1 ATS over their last 11 home games and 3-7-1 ATS over their last 11 games overall. The Cougars get their revenge on Saturday.

Notable Trends: BYU is 14-6 ATS over their last 20 games against teams with a winning record while Notre Dame is 2-6-1 ATS over their last nine games played on a grass surface.

Pick: BYU (PK)

Colorado State Rams (6-5, 3-2 road) at Utah State Aggies (6-4, 2-2 home)

When: Saturday, 3:30pm ET
Open: Utah State -7.5
Current: Utah State -7.5

Colorado State in 2013: 8-3 ATS, 7-2-1 to the OVER
Utah State in 2013: 6-4 ATS, 6-4 to the OVER

Analysis: We rode a 5-5 Colorado State team looking to get bowl eligible last Saturday and it worked out in our favor. This weekend, however, we’re going to fade the Rams in favor of the Aggies. Colorado State’s offensive identity is tied to a running game (214.8 yds/gm, 24th in NCAA) spearheaded by redshirt sophomore Kapri Bibs, who has gained a ridiculous 603 rushing yards and ten touchdowns on 68 carries over his last two starts. But the Aggies are more than adept at defending the run, having permitted an average of just 127.3 yards per game on the ground this season, with only eight touchdowns. In addition, Utah State has had an extra week to prepare for Bibbs and is 8-2 ATS over their last ten games coming off the bye. Finally, note that the Aggies are 18-7-1 ATS over their last 26 games overall and 9-3 ATS over their last 12 home contests.

Notable Trends: Colorado State is 1-4 ATS over their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous contest while Utah State is 8-2 ATS over their last ten games against teams with a winning record.

Pick: Utah State (-7.5)

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh