by Tony Villiotti
April 16, 02013
One thing that is a virtual certainty regarding the 2013 NFL Draft is that there will be movement via trades in the first round of the draft. Last year there were eight such trades on draft day, and another (the RG3 trade) well in advance of the draft.
In this article DRAFTMETRICS reviews the nine first round 2012 trade-ups, both to get a sense of the consideration paid to move up and to offer opinions on whether the moves made sense. The first round includes two of the DRAFTMETRICS Value Groups (selections 1-13 and selections 14-40).
The “premium received” section for each trade shows the number of players received as a premium for each of four metrics. In most cases, a team does not receive the equivalent of a full player as a premium. In the first trade, for example, the Rams added .660 of a one-time Pro Bowler. This indicates that there is a two-thirds chance that they would actually add such a player.
Redskins surrendered the #6 and #39 choices plus first round choices in 2013 (turned out to be #22) and 2014 to move up to the Rams’ #2 and take RG3.
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: On paper a big edge to the Rams, but if RG3 plays like he did as a rookie, stays healthy and continues to progress the price paid will be worth it. Franchise quarterbacks are so valuable that a team has to pay what it takes to get one. Paper advantage to Ram as follows (and assuming the 2014 first rounder is after pick #13):
PREMIUM PAID TO THE RAMS:
Browns acquired the #3 pick from the Vikings in exchange for #4, #118, #139 and #211
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: This was a head scratcher on draft day. The Browns paid two to three times the premium paid by the Jaguars to move up from #7 to #5. The Vikings were are also able to trade the 2012 #211 pick for #176 in 2013, plus get the player they likely would have selected with the #3 pick anyway. The only way this trade makes sense is to consider the premium paid by the Browns asinsurance against another team moving up and taking Richardson.
PREMIUM PAID TO THE VIKINGS (including subsequenttrade of #211):
Jaguars acquired the #5 pick from the Bucs in exchange for the #7 and #101 picks
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: Any time a team moves down and stays within the first 13 picks, it is
going to win the trade on paper. The Bucs later traded the #101 pick as part of another first
PREMIUM PAID TO THE BUCS:
Cowboys acquired the #6 pick from the Rams for the #14 and #45 picks
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: This trade is kind of a mixed bag as the Rams improved their chances of landing a five-year starter but decreased their chances of drafting an impact player. As a general rule, DRAFTMETRICS hates to see teams trade out of the first 13 picks unless the return is overwhelming. The Rams subsequently traded #45 for #50 and #150, which was a good trade for them.
PREMIUM PAID TO THE RAMS:
Eagles acquired the #12 pick from the Seahawks in exchange for the #15, #114 and #176 selections
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: Once again, the team trading out of the top 13 wins on the chances for a starter but loses on chances for an impact starter.
PREMIUM PAID TO THE SEAHAWKS:
Patriots acquired pick #21 from the Bengals in exchange for #27 and #93
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: DRAFTMETRICS likes the strategy of trading down in the same Value
Group and acquiring a premium along with it, so it likes what the Bengals did.
PREMIUM PAID TO THE BENGALS:
Patriots acquired pick #25 from the Broncos for #31 and #126
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: This a carbon copy of the previous trade between the Bengals and Patriots, even for the exact number of spots moved up, and comments regarding a trade down in the same Value Group also apply here.
PREMIUM PAID TO THE BRONCOS:
Vikings acquired choice #29 from the Ravens for #35 and #98
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: This trade is exactly like the prior two, with even the number of spots moved being the same, and the same comments apply.
PREMIUM PAID TO THE RAVENS:
The Patriots traded their #31 selection plus #126 to the Bucs for #36 and #101
DRAFTMETRICS OPINION: Selections #31 and #36 have the same value and so do #101 and #126 so this is a completely neutral trade. The Bucs extracted no premium for moving down.
PREMIUM PAID TO THE BUCS: No premium was paid.
Tony is the founder of DRAFTMETRICS.COM can be e-mailed at firstname.lastname@example.org and followed on Twitter @draftmetrics