by Tony Villiotti
March 28, 02013
Now that the compensatory picks have been doled out, we know that there will be 254 players selected in the draft and who will be drafting when. The draft order will certainly change due to the traditional flurry of trades before (and mostly) during the draft. The impending changes in draft order, though, will not affect the overall expectations for the draft.
DRAFTMETRICS expects the following outcome from the 2013 draft based on the results of the 1993-2006 drafts:
• 171 players will play at least three seasons
• 130 players will play at least five seasons
• 77 players will start for at least three seasons
- A starter is someone who starts at least eight games in a season
• 58 players will start for at least five seasons
• 42 players will start as rookies
- This is based on the draft years 1993-2012 rather than 1993-2006
• 24 players will be selected for at least 1 Pro Bowl
• 10 players will be selected for at least 3 Pro Bowls
• 13 players will be selected as an All Pro at least once
• 3 players will be selected as an All Pro at least three times
Which team should make out the best? San Francisco, if they keep its entire allotment of 14 picks (including five of the first 93), figures to be biggest beneficiary of the draft. Since the purpose of the draft is to help bring parity to the league, it does seem a little crazy for a Super Bowl participant to be in San Francisco’s position. With an already talented roster, though, it is hard to imagine that they will be able to realize the full benefit of their draft situation. It would not be surprising to see some trade activity by the 49ers. One logical move for the 49ers would be to package their 31st and 34th picks and move up into the top 13.
The following table reflects what history says about how the teams are likely to divvy up the 77 projected five-year starters. DRAFTMETRICS apologizes in advance for the use of “fractional bodies” but that’s how averages work. The numbers in this table represent the number of five-year starters a team can expect from the 2013 draft based on data from the 1993-2006 drafts.
Teams at the top and bottom of the expected results are usually there because of trades or other means of adding or losing draft choices.Here’s how this year’s teams did it.
Top 4 Teams
• The 49ers added the 34th pick in exchange for Alex Smith, the 74th pick from trading a 4th round pick (#103) to the Panthers in 2012 and the 131rd pick as a compensatory selection
• The Dolphins have the 12th pick overall, and also added the 54th pick by trading Vontae Davis and the 82nd choice by trading Brandon Marshall
• The Vikings added the 25th selection in the Percy Harvin deal
• The Bengals added the 37th pick in the Carson Palmer trade
Bottom 3 Teams
• The Saints forfeited their 2nd round pick as a result of the bounty case
• The Colts surrendered their 2nd round pick for Vontae Davis and their 5th round pick to the 49ers in a 2012 trade up
• The Redskins happily surrendered their 1stround choice to move up in 2012 and take RG3
Where are the three projected three-time All Pros likely to end up? History tells us that It is likely that two of those players will end up on the roster of the teams that occupy the one through thirteen draft slots and the other three-time All Pro will end up randomly on the roster of one of the remaining 19 teams. The table below shows a full summary of 2013 draft expectations by NFL team. These expectations will change once the actual selections are made and the historical risks of individual playing positions are added to the mix. DRAFTMETRICS will publish the updated expectations after the conclusion of the draft.
Tony is the founder of DRAFTMETRICS.COM can be e-mailed at firstname.lastname@example.org and followed on Twitter @draftmetrics