by Tony Villiotti
April 30, 02013
With the draft now completed, DRAFTMETRICS has re-calculated who should expect the most help. The methodology used in calculating the expected results is as follows:
• The probability of achieving various milestones for each selection by each team was determined based on the article “Digging Deeper into Draft Probabilities”
• The probability assigned was based on when the selection occurred (i.e., in which Value Group does the selection occur) and the playing position drafted
o There are different probabilities for each playing position as indicated in “Digging Deeper into Draft Probabilities”
• The probability of success was converted into number of players
o A 50% chance of a player achieving a milestone equals ½ of a player
• The number of players expected to result from each selection were then added to derive a total expectation for a team’s draft class
It is acknowledged that this process gives an advantage to a team that drafts less risky players (such as offensive linemen) as opposed to more risky players (like wide receivers and running backs). The analysis does not give consideration to the strength of the roster of the team doing the drafting. This is deemed to be a non-factor because it is assumed that a talented player who cannot make the roster of the team that drafted him will inevitably end up on another team’s roster.
Below are the complete results by team. In the following table DRAFTMETRICS takes the
information from the chart below it to rank the teams by the number of five-year starters expected.
Tony is the founder of DRAFTMETRICS.COM can be e-mailed at firstname.lastname@example.org and followed on Twitter @draftmetrics